https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/api.php?action=feedcontributions&feedformat=atom&user=131.107.0.114explain xkcd - User contributions [en]2026-07-06T17:01:54ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.30.0https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=881:_Probability&diff=20523881: Probability2012-11-30T20:40:44Z<p>131.107.0.114: /* Explanation */</p>
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<div>{{comic<br />
| number = 881<br />
| date = April 4, 2011<br />
| title = Probability<br />
| image = probability.png<br />
| imagesize = <br />
| titletext = My normal approach is useless here, too.<br />
}}<br />
<br />
==Explanation==<br />
As the title text says, [[55|my normal approach is useless here]].<br />
<br />
[[Cueball]] and [[Megan]] are sitting on a hospital bed reading a piece of paper, with the statistics for {{w|breast cancer}} survival. It looks like Megan has just been diagnosed with breast cancer.<br />
<br />
The dotted line represents the survival rate distribution: the higher number being centered on about 5 years, in this case with a chance of 81%. 10 years is the limit: the max survival rate expected is 10 years, with a chance of 77%.<br />
<br />
[[Randall]] posted [http://blog.xkcd.com/2011/06/30/family-illness/ this] blog post two months after posting this strip explaining the cancer strips.<br />
<br />
==Transcript==<br />
:[A plot of years vs. percent, with a solid and a dashed line. The solid line starts at 100%, and drops constantly. The dashed line starts around 85%, rises to 95% after 5 years, then drops.]<br />
<br />
:[A simple table.]<br />
:5 years 81%<br />
:10 years 77%<br />
<br />
:[Two people are sitting on a bench, next to an IV drip hanging from a rack. One is holding a paper.]<br />
:Cueball: You know, probability used to be my favorite branch of math<br />
:Cueball: Because it had so many real-life applications.<br />
<br />
:[They embrace, faces together.]<br />
<br />
{{comic discussion}} <br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]<br />
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]<br />
[[Category:Romance]]<br />
[[Category:Cancer]]<br />
[[Category:Charts]]<br />
[[Category:Math]]<br />
[[Category:Statistics]]</div>131.107.0.114