1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians

2012-11-09T15:23:56Z

72.161.122.176: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1132
| date = November 9, 2012
| title = Frequentists vs. Bayesians
| image = frequentists_vs_bayesians.png
| imagesize =
| titletext = 'Detector! What would the Bayesian statistician say if I asked him whether the--'<br>[roll] 'I AM A NEUTRINO DETECTOR, NOT A LABYRINTH GUARD. SERIOUSLY, DID YOUR BRAIN FALL OUT?'<br>[roll] '... yes.'}}

==Explanation==
This is another comic about the accuracy of presidential election predictions that used Bayesian statistical models, such as Nate Silver's ''538'' and Professor Sam Wang's ''PEC''. Thomas Bayes studied conditional probability - the likelihood that one event is true when given information about some other related event. From Wikipedia: "Bayesian interpretation expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence".

In the comic, the likelihood that the detector is lying is much higher than the likelihood of the Sun exploding. Therefore, one should conclude that a single "yes" result is probably a false positive. The bit about "p < 0.05" comes from a naive interpretation of modern scientific research standards (known as the P value), where a result is presumed to be valid if there is less than a 5% chance that it came from random chance. There is a 1/36 chance of rolling two sixes on 2d6.

The title text refers to a classic series of logic puzzles (and the movie Labyrinth), where there are two guards in front of two exit doors, one of which is real and the other leads to death. One guard is a liar and the other tells the truth. The visitor doesn't know which is which, and is allowed to ask one question to one guard. The solution is to ask either guard what the other one would say is the real exit, then choose the opposite.

It is always a good bet that the sun hasn't gone nova, if you can get anyone to take it. When you lose, there will not be time to collect.

1130: Poll Watching

2012-11-05T16:41:18Z

72.161.122.176: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1130
| date = November 5, 2012
| title = Poll Watching
| image = poll_watching.png
| imagesize =
| titletext = The choices we make Tuesday could have MASSIVE and PERMANENT effects on the charts on Nate Silver's blog!
}}

==Explanation==
This comic is another commentary on the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|2012 U.S. presidential election}} (as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]] and, to an extent, [[1127: Congress]] also were references to), as it was posted the day before the election.

In the comic, [[Cueball]] is glued to his laptop reading media coverage of the election. The offscreen character's remark that Cueball should take a break suggests that Cueball has been reading media coverage for quite a while.

Cueball is so caught up in media coverage, that he is speculating on the effect that incumbent President {{w|Barak Obama|Obama}} winning the election (and the resulting news coverage) could have on challenger {{w|Mitt Romney}}'s campaign. The joke is that the end-goal of Romney's campaign is to win the election. If Obama wins, the campaigning is already over, regardless of media coverage. Cueball is simply so invested that he is over-analyzing potential scenarios.

In respect to the title text, {{w|Nate Silver}} is an American statistician, {{w|psephologist}}, and writer (among other things not-relevant to this comic). He has a political blog called {{w|FiveThirtyEight}} which was originally written under a pseudonym. The Blog and its associated website primarily discuss tracking polls in respect to elections. Thus, the choices made on Tuesday (election day) presumably ''will'' have massive and permanent effects on FiveThirtyEight's charts, which will obviously change to reflect the actual votes cast. This is a parody of the bold statements often made during campaigns, such as that the choices made on election day could have massive and permanent effects on such things as your health care, the economy, your job, etc.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball kneels on his desk chair, hunched over a laptop]
:Cueball: This Tuesday will be huge!
:Cueball: If Obama wins the election, it could generate news coverage ''devastating'' to Romney's position in the tracking polls!
:Offscreen character: ... Maybe you should take a break.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Politics]]

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1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians

1130: Poll Watching