https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/api.php?hidebots=1&urlversion=1&days=30&limit=50&target=Category%3AStatistics&action=feedrecentchanges&feedformat=atomexplain xkcd - Changes related to "Category:Statistics" [en]2024-03-28T20:08:57ZRelated changesMediaWiki 1.30.0https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=111:_Firefox_and_Witchcraft_-_The_Connection%3F&diff=338087&oldid=338086111: Firefox and Witchcraft - The Connection?2024-03-25T00:02:54Z<p>Reverted edit 338086 by <a href="/wiki/index.php/Special:Contributions/172.71.166.206" title="Special:Contributions/172.71.166.206">172.71.166.206</a> to 316169</p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:02, 25 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Only $199/mo</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{{comic</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">100% Texas Marketing</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| number    = 111</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(No Outsourced Work or Tech Support)</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| date      = June 5, 2006</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">26 Years Experience</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| title    = Firefox and Witchcraft - The Connection?</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| image    = firefox wicca.png</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| titletext = ThisadpaidforbythecounciltopromoteMicrosoftandChristianity. Remember, The Bible is Closed Source.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">}}</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Find out more </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">see our list </del>of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">clients</del>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Explanation==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">https</del>://<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">seo/17</del>-<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">point-plan/</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The comic charts the number of members of the religion {{w|Wicca}} against the number of times the {{w|Firefox}} web browser  was downloaded, with the implication being that Firefox usage causes involvement in Wicca. In juxtaposing these almost certainly unrelated phenomena, Randall highlights the common error of assuming that {{w|Correlation_and_dependence|correlation}} implies {{w|Causality|causation}}. When two variables exhibit similar trends, this is often taken as proving that one is causing the other. However, such correlation may have come about through pure coincidence, </ins>and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">not indicate any link between the two at all. This is particularly a problem when examining a large number </ins>of <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">variables</ins>: <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">the chances of finding a [http</ins>://<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">www</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">tylervigen.com</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">spurious</ins>-<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">correlations coincidental correlation] increase exponentially as more variables are added. It may also be the case that a third factor is causally linked to both outcomes. In this case, it is plausible that the increasing ubiquity of internet access has resulted in increased demand for Firefox, and also in greater capacity to share the ideas of Wicca.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Find out what else we </del>can <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">do for your site</del>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Randall further illustrates one common, and perhaps destructive, use of illusory correlation in the bottom half of the image. The appearance of the symbol for {{w|Internet Explorer}}, a rival web browser, and the cross, representing Christianity, imply that this graph is an attack ad promoted by Microsoft and Christianity to gain an advantage over their competitors.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">website-design</del>/</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">technical-support</del>-and<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-services/</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The title text is reminiscent of political commercials, which often tell you who paid for them very quickly. This high speed is represented by all the words in the title text being strung together. The last sentence is a play on the term of {{w|Closed source software|closed source software}}, which Internet Explorer is, as opposed to Firefox, which is open source in development. In a similar vein, the Bible </ins>can <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">be considered "closed source" due to [http://kingjbible.com/revelation/22.htm God's prohibition on altering its contents].</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Transcript==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[A graph is shown with a positive slope.]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Y axis]: Membership in Wicca</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[X axis]</ins>: <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Total Firefox Downloads</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Internet Explorer icon</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:<big>K<</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">big>EEP TH<big>E<</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">big></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:FAITH</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Outline of a cross.]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Trivia==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">This type of [https://yourlogicalfallacyis</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">com</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">false</ins>-<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">cause statistical ploy] is used again in a few other comics, like [[523: Decline]], [[552: Correlation]], </ins>and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[925: Cell Phones]].</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{{comic discussion}}</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Comics with color]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Line graphs]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Statistics]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Religion]]</ins></div></td></tr>
</table>TheusafBOThttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=111:_Firefox_and_Witchcraft_-_The_Connection%3F&diff=338086&oldid=316169111: Firefox and Witchcraft - The Connection?2024-03-25T00:02:47Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:02, 25 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{{comic</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Only $199/mo</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| number    = 111</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">100% Texas Marketing</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| date      = June 5, 2006</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(No Outsourced Work or Tech Support)</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| title    = Firefox and Witchcraft - The Connection?</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">26 Years Experience</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| image    = firefox wicca.png</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">| titletext = ThisadpaidforbythecounciltopromoteMicrosoftandChristianity. Remember, The Bible is Closed Source.</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">}}</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Explanation==</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Find out more </ins>and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">see our list </ins>of <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">clients</ins>:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The comic charts the number of members of the religion {{w|Wicca}} against the number of times the {{w|Firefox}} web browser  was downloaded, with the implication being that Firefox usage causes involvement in Wicca. In juxtaposing these almost certainly unrelated phenomena, Randall highlights the common error of assuming that {{w|Correlation_and_dependence|correlation}} implies {{w|Causality|causation}}. When two variables exhibit similar trends, this is often taken as proving that one is causing the other. However, such correlation may have come about through pure coincidence, </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">not indicate any link between the two at all. This is particularly a problem when examining a large number </del>of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">variables</del>: <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">the chances of finding a [http</del>://<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">www</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">tylervigen.com</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">spurious</del>-<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">correlations coincidental correlation] increase exponentially as more variables are added. It may also be the case that a third factor is causally linked to both outcomes. In this case, it is plausible that the increasing ubiquity of internet access has resulted in increased demand for Firefox, and also in greater capacity to share the ideas of Wicca.</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">https</ins>://<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net/seo</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">17-point</ins>-<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">plan/</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Randall further illustrates one common, and perhaps destructive, use of illusory correlation in the bottom half of the image. The appearance of the symbol for {{w|Internet Explorer}}, a rival web browser, and the cross, representing Christianity, imply that this graph is an attack ad promoted by Microsoft and Christianity to gain an advantage over their competitors.</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Find out what else we can do </ins>for <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">your site</ins>:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">website-design</ins>/</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The title text is reminiscent of political commercials, which often tell you who paid </del>for <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">them very quickly. This high speed is represented by all the words in the title text being strung together. The last sentence is a play on the term of {{w|Closed source software|closed source software}}, which Internet Explorer is, as opposed to Firefox, which is open source in development. In a similar vein, the Bible can be considered "closed source" due to [http://kingjbible.com/revelation/22.htm God's prohibition on altering its contents].</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">adventdigital</ins>.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">net</ins>/<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">technical-support</ins>-and<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-services/</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Transcript==</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[A graph is shown with a positive slope.]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Y axis]: Membership in Wicca</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[X axis]</del>: <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Total Firefox Downloads</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Internet Explorer icon</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:<big>K<</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">big>EEP TH<big>E<</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">big></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:FAITH</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:[Outline of a cross.]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Trivia==</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">This type of [https://yourlogicalfallacyis</del>.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">com</del>/<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">false</del>-<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">cause statistical ploy] is used again in a few other comics, like [[523: Decline]], [[552: Correlation]], </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[925: Cell Phones]].</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{{comic discussion}}</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Comics with color]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Line graphs]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Statistics]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Category:Religion]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
</table>172.71.166.206https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1725:_Linear_Regression&diff=337659&oldid=3366301725: Linear Regression2024-03-18T23:54:19Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 23:54, 18 March 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l16" >Line 16:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The comic is somewhat misleading, since the data in the graph actually has an ''R''<sup>2</sup> of 0.02, only a third of what Randall claims.  An example of published research with an ''R''<sup>2</sup> of 0.06 where the association in the graph is noticeable (if not strong) can be found [http://www.i-jmr.org/2012/1/e1/ here] (figure 2 has ''r'' = 0.25 which corresponds to ''R''<sup>2</sup> = 0.06). In addition, it is hard to see the association in the comic's graph because relatively few points are plotted. In a data set with 1000 observations and ''R''<sup>2</sup> = 0.06, any association between the two variables would be quite clear.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The comic is somewhat misleading, since the data in the graph actually has an ''R''<sup>2</sup> of 0.02, only a third of what Randall claims.  An example of published research with an ''R''<sup>2</sup> of 0.06 where the association in the graph is noticeable (if not strong) can be found [http://www.i-jmr.org/2012/1/e1/ here] (figure 2 has ''r'' = 0.25 which corresponds to ''R''<sup>2</sup> = 0.06). In addition, it is hard to see the association in the comic's graph because relatively few points are plotted. In a data set with 1000 observations and ''R''<sup>2</sup> = 0.06, any association between the two variables would be quite clear.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The lines connecting the stars in this "constellation" create a crude illustration of a person with an outstretched arm holding up a dog, which could be a reference to the film {{w|Life is Beautiful}} where a waiter carries a dog on his tray without realizing. The name "Rexthor the Dog Bearer" spoofs the fact that numerous Greek-<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">derivef </del>constellation names have both a proper name and an epithet (for example, "Orion, the Hunter"). The fact that "Rex" is an archetypal dog name (but also meaning {{w|Rex (title)|king}} as in king of the dinosaurs <i>Tyrannosaurus rex</i>), adds to the humor.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The lines connecting the stars in this "constellation" create a crude illustration of a person with an outstretched arm holding up a dog, which could be a reference to the film {{w|Life is Beautiful}} where a waiter carries a dog on his tray without realizing. The name "Rexthor the Dog Bearer" spoofs the fact that numerous Greek-<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">derived </ins>constellation names have both a proper name and an epithet (for example, "Orion, the Hunter"). The fact that "Rex" is an archetypal dog name (but also meaning {{w|Rex (title)|king}} as in king of the dinosaurs <i>Tyrannosaurus rex</i>), adds to the humor.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The 95% {{w|confidence interval}} in statistics is such a range of an estimate, that it is expected to contain the real value (the estimated population parameter) 95% of the time. The confidence interval is a standard method to provide evaluation of the estimation error in statistics. On the right panel the resulting estimate seems to be a drawing, so the 95% confidence interval would be a set of drawings, expected to contain the correct drawing in 95% of samples where it is calculated. According to the title text, the interval in this particular sample also includes a cat and a teapot, so we can only make extremely vague statements in order to maintain 95% confidence.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The 95% {{w|confidence interval}} in statistics is such a range of an estimate, that it is expected to contain the real value (the estimated population parameter) 95% of the time. The confidence interval is a standard method to provide evaluation of the estimation error in statistics. On the right panel the resulting estimate seems to be a drawing, so the 95% confidence interval would be a set of drawings, expected to contain the correct drawing in 95% of samples where it is calculated. According to the title text, the interval in this particular sample also includes a cat and a teapot, so we can only make extremely vague statements in order to maintain 95% confidence.</div></td></tr>
</table>172.71.158.34https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2701:_Change_in_Slope&diff=337625&oldid=3107082701: Change in Slope2024-03-18T16:22:54Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation: </span> did someone seriously... whatever</span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<tr style="vertical-align: top;" lang="en">
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 16:22, 18 March 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l14" >Line 14:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The comic compares two methods. Firstly, a novice method &mdash; by 'doing a bunch of statistics'- i.e, applying various statistical tools to analyze the data and figure out the quantitative change in slope. This results in two equations for the trendlines above and below a given value, a box plot, a histogram, and a line chart. It is unknown exactly what methods the novice used to figure out the change in slope in the data. Possibilities include calculating the [https://stackoverflow.com/a/45063636 derivatives] (which probably won't work well on noisy data such as shown), or [https://stackoverflow.com/a/71744293 gradients], or using a [https://stackoverflow.com/a/47522444 Savitzky-Golay filter or piecewise linear smoothing spline fits]. [[Randall]]'s light gray figures may be suggesting [https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1apKDIN5FE32mtGiQew5cE6wK6m6eM_Fr this method.]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The comic compares two methods. Firstly, a novice method &mdash; by 'doing a bunch of statistics'- i.e, applying various statistical tools to analyze the data and figure out the quantitative change in slope. This results in two equations for the trendlines above and below a given value, a box plot, a histogram, and a line chart. It is unknown exactly what methods the novice used to figure out the change in slope in the data. Possibilities include calculating the [https://stackoverflow.com/a/45063636 derivatives] (which probably won't work well on noisy data such as shown), or [https://stackoverflow.com/a/71744293 gradients], or using a [https://stackoverflow.com/a/47522444 Savitzky-Golay filter or piecewise linear smoothing spline fits]. [[Randall]]'s light gray figures may be suggesting [https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1apKDIN5FE32mtGiQew5cE6wK6m6eM_Fr this method.]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The other is the so-called 'expert' method, which involves [https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/525939879805190154/1044395695525875712/xkcd_sideways.png tilting the page the graph is printed on to view changes in slope] better. For small changes in an underlying trend, similar to that apparently shown in the comic, direct visual inspection cannot always identify or even reveal the effect. The comic shows, however, that by taking the page and rotating it in just the right way, the foreshortened perspective can make certain details much more apparent, allowing the 'expert' to see at a glance that there is a change in the slope. Ironically, tilting the comic to make the original roughly resemble the perspective of the 'tilted' version graph shown in the comic shows that the right-hand panel is slightly exaggerated for visual effect. The use of {{w|Perspective (graphical)|perspective}} to make information pop into the audience's view has been used by artists for {{w|The_Ambassadors_(Holbein)|centuries}}.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The other is the so-called 'expert' method, which involves [<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">https://web.archive.org/web/20221122041345/</ins>https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/525939879805190154/1044395695525875712/xkcd_sideways.png tilting the page the graph is printed on to view changes in slope] better. For small changes in an underlying trend, similar to that apparently shown in the comic, direct visual inspection cannot always identify or even reveal the effect. The comic shows, however, that by taking the page and rotating it in just the right way, the foreshortened perspective can make certain details much more apparent, allowing the 'expert' to see at a glance that there is a change in the slope. Ironically, tilting the comic to make the original roughly resemble the perspective of the 'tilted' version graph shown in the comic shows that the right-hand panel is slightly exaggerated for visual effect. The use of {{w|Perspective (graphical)|perspective}} to make information pop into the audience's view has been used by artists for {{w|The_Ambassadors_(Holbein)|centuries}}.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, applying such an approach to data plots can run into errors &mdash; the primary one being parallax error from the oblique viewing angle causing the observer to not necessarily identify or clearly find the point at which the slope changes. It also does not reveal any data about the quantitative value of the change in slope, merely proving the existence of one. Furthermore, noisy data might show an apparent slope change that is not representative of an actual change in the underlying data, so even more advanced [https://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/calculator.aspx?id=103 statistics testing the hypothesis of whether an apparent slope change is real] may likely be a good idea.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, applying such an approach to data plots can run into errors &mdash; the primary one being parallax error from the oblique viewing angle causing the observer to not necessarily identify or clearly find the point at which the slope changes. It also does not reveal any data about the quantitative value of the change in slope, merely proving the existence of one. Furthermore, noisy data might show an apparent slope change that is not representative of an actual change in the underlying data, so even more advanced [https://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/calculator.aspx?id=103 statistics testing the hypothesis of whether an apparent slope change is real] may likely be a good idea.</div></td></tr>
</table>PinkAmpersandhttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2471:_Hippo_Attacks&diff=337002&oldid=2851862471: Hippo Attacks2024-03-11T12:56:22Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation: </span> Just making it a tiny bit clearer for those like me who have to read a couple of times</span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The viral post appears to be [https://www.facebook.com/clickhole/photos/a.1461385317435063/2945077732399140/?type=3 this Facebook post.] The relevant source is unknown (and may very well be made up, since the source is ClickHole, a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ClickHole satirical website formerly owned by The Onion]). There are a number of listicles Cueball may be referring to, but they all appear to be citing [https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Most-Lethal-Animal-Mosquito-Week the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation], however, even they do not seem to provide source for the number of fatalities caused by hippopotamus.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The viral post appears to be [https://www.facebook.com/clickhole/photos/a.1461385317435063/2945077732399140/?type=3 this Facebook post.] The relevant source is unknown (and may very well be made up, since the source is ClickHole, a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ClickHole satirical website formerly owned by The Onion]). There are a number of listicles Cueball may be referring to, but they all appear to be citing [https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Most-Lethal-Animal-Mosquito-Week the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation], however, even they do not seem to provide source for the number of fatalities caused by hippopotamus.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act ({{w|HIPAA}}, pronounced ''HIP-uh'') is an American healthcare law enacted in 1996. One of the most commonly cited provisions from HIPAA is the HIPAA Privacy Rule, which regulates the use and disclosure of protected health information.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The quip turns on a pun between "hippo" and "HIPAA". </ins>The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act ({{w|HIPAA}}, pronounced ''HIP-uh'') is an American healthcare law enacted in 1996. One of the most commonly cited provisions from HIPAA is the HIPAA Privacy Rule, which regulates the use and disclosure of protected health information.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, Cueball and Megan are discussing the number of {{w|hippopotamus}} attacks, which is unverified. Megan proposes an alternative explanation as to why this particular number is hard to come by: it would be violating the patients' privacy to create statistics of a very specific and unusual cause of death. The punchline comes with the pun on "hippo violation" ("HIPAA violation").</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, Cueball and Megan are discussing the number of {{w|hippopotamus}} attacks, which is unverified. Megan proposes an alternative explanation as to why this particular number is hard to come by: it would be violating the patients' privacy to create statistics of a very specific and unusual cause of death. The punchline comes with the pun on "hippo violation" ("HIPAA violation").</div></td></tr>
</table>108.162.242.105https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=539:_Boyfriend&diff=336896&oldid=273434539: Boyfriend2024-03-08T23:52:44Z<p>less links to the same page</p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 23:52, 8 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In classical statistics, {{w|statistical significance}} is used to determine whether a conclusion can be confidently made about the implications of a given set of data. If some data set is determined to be an appropriate sample of a given population, then conclusions can be made by determining trends in the data. Since one can never be completely sure that their data is truly representative, or their statistical analysis completely accurate, calculations of the likelihood of error are made. Once these calculations are made, it can be decided that a given conclusion is statistically significant because it passes a certain threshold for the likelihood of error. Because the statistical analysis that was done concluded that it is significantly more likely that the conclusions made are accurate than inaccurate, these conclusions are termed statistically significant.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In classical statistics, {{w|statistical significance}} is used to determine whether a conclusion can be confidently made about the implications of a given set of data. If some data set is determined to be an appropriate sample of a given population, then conclusions can be made by determining trends in the data. Since one can never be completely sure that their data is truly representative, or their statistical analysis completely accurate, calculations of the likelihood of error are made. Once these calculations are made, it can be decided that a given conclusion is statistically significant because it passes a certain threshold for the likelihood of error. Because the statistical analysis that was done concluded that it is significantly more likely that the conclusions made are accurate than inaccurate, these conclusions are termed statistically significant.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this case, [[Megan]] has analyzed the amount of time that [[Cueball]] spends with her versus others in his life. Based on the data she has gathered, she constructed a box plot. A box plot is a way to present data that utilizes boxes to show the range that a certain percentage of data points fall into. The boxes denote quartiles, so the large box demonstrates the range between the lowest and highest quartile, and the line in the center of the box denotes the median of the entire data set. The bars extend to the outer limits of the data set, encompassing the highest and lowest points (but excluding outliers). Box plots are useful to show the spread of data, and how it may be skewed. For more on box plots, see {{w|Box plot}}. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Megan<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>uses the data she has collected to show that the amount of time that <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>spends with her is significantly higher than the amount of time he spends with others, since the amount of time they spend together is high enough to be an outlier when she completes a statistical analysis of the time he spends with people in his life.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this case, [[Megan]] has analyzed the amount of time that [[Cueball]] spends with her versus others in his life. Based on the data she has gathered, she constructed a box plot. A box plot is a way to present data that utilizes boxes to show the range that a certain percentage of data points fall into. The boxes denote quartiles, so the large box demonstrates the range between the lowest and highest quartile, and the line in the center of the box denotes the median of the entire data set. The bars extend to the outer limits of the data set, encompassing the highest and lowest points (but excluding outliers). Box plots are useful to show the spread of data, and how it may be skewed. For more on box plots, see {{w|Box plot}}. Megan uses the data she has collected to show that the amount of time that Cueball spends with her is significantly higher than the amount of time he spends with others, since the amount of time they spend together is high enough to be an outlier when she completes a statistical analysis of the time he spends with people in his life.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>accepts her claim, and she responds with a witticism that combines the phrases "statistically significant" and "significant other".  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Cueball accepts her claim, and she responds with a witticism that combines the phrases "statistically significant" and "significant other".  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text can be interpreted in multiple ways. Firstly, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>may be resistant to the title of <q>boyfriend</q>. As he indicates, he is currently casually dating multiple people, and may therefore be resistant to any single individual attempting to establish a monogamous relationship. It could also be inferred that anyone taking the time and effort to statistically examine their relationship with him is off-putting, as this behavior could be viewed as obsessive. It could also be theorized that the term <q>statistically significant other</q> seems cold, and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>would rather date someone who makes him ''feel'' as though their relationship is significant, not simply someone who is an outlier in terms of time spent together. However, we know how <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>responds to [[833: Convincing| graphs without axes]], so part of his rejection may stem from his disdain of her graph's lack of necessary units (for all we know, he could be spending significantly ''less'' time with <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Megan<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>than with others!</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text can be interpreted in multiple ways. Firstly, Cueball may be resistant to the title of <q>boyfriend</q>. As he indicates, he is currently casually dating multiple people, and may therefore be resistant to any single individual attempting to establish a monogamous relationship. It could also be inferred that anyone taking the time and effort to statistically examine their relationship with him is off-putting, as this behavior could be viewed as obsessive. It could also be theorized that the term <q>statistically significant other</q> seems cold, and Cueball would rather date someone who makes him ''feel'' as though their relationship is significant, not simply someone who is an outlier in terms of time spent together. However, we know how Cueball responds to [[833: Convincing| graphs without axes]], so part of his rejection may stem from his disdain of her graph's lack of necessary units (for all we know, he could be spending significantly ''less'' time with Megan than with others!</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>...Or it could just be that it's a cringe-worthy pun, and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>doesn't appreciate <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Megan<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>being so pun-happy. The unduly{{Citation needed}} severe consequences for an over-elaborate pun setup are analogous to how another <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</del>Cueball<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]] </del>gets his [[410: Math Paper| math license revoked]] over a pun.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>...Or it could just be that it's a cringe-worthy pun, and Cueball doesn't appreciate Megan being so pun-happy. The unduly{{Citation needed}} severe consequences for an over-elaborate pun setup are analogous to how another Cueball gets his [[410: Math Paper| math license revoked]] over a pun.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Transcript==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Transcript==</div></td></tr>
</table>1234231587678https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1478:_P-Values&diff=336895&oldid=2922431478: P-Values2024-03-08T23:50:24Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 23:50, 8 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Values between 0.07 and 0.099 continue the trend of using qualifying language, calling the results "suggestive" or "relevant". This category also illustrates the 'technique' of resorting to adjusting the significance threshold. Appropriate {{w|Design of experiments|experimental design}} requires that the significance threshold be set prior to the experiment, not allowing changes afterward in order to "get a better experiment report", as this would again insert bias into the result. A simple change of the threshold (e.g. from 0.05 to 0.1) can change an experiment's result from "not significant" to "significant". Although the statement "significant at the ''p''<0.10 level" is technically true, it would be highly frowned upon to use in an actual report.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Values between 0.07 and 0.099 continue the trend of using qualifying language, calling the results "suggestive" or "relevant". This category also illustrates the 'technique' of resorting to adjusting the significance threshold. Appropriate {{w|Design of experiments|experimental design}} requires that the significance threshold be set prior to the experiment, not allowing changes afterward in order to "get a better experiment report", as this would again insert bias into the result. A simple change of the threshold (e.g. from 0.05 to 0.1) can change an experiment's result from "not significant" to "significant". Although the statement "significant at the ''p''<0.10 level" is technically true, it would be highly frowned upon to use in an actual report.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Values higher than 0.1 are usually considered not significant at all, however the comic suggests taking a part of the sample (a ''subgroup'') and analyzing that subgroup without regard to the rest of the sample. Choosing to analyze a subgroup ''in advance for scientifically plausible reasons'' is good practice. For example, a drug to prevent heart attacks is likely to benefit men more than women, since men are more likely to have heart attacks. Choosing to focus on a subgroup after conducting an experiment may also be valid if there is a credible scientific justification - sometimes researchers learn something new from experiments. However, the danger is that it is usually possible to find and pick an arbitrary subgroup that happens to have a better ''p''-value simply due to chance. A researcher reporting results for subgroups that have little scientific basis (the pill only benefits people with black hair, or only people who took it on a Wednesday, etc.) would clearly be "cheating." Even when the subgroup has a plausible scientific justification, skeptics will rightly be suspicious that the researcher might have considered numerous possible subgroups (men, older people, fat people, sedentary people, diabetes suffers, etc.) and only reported the subgroups for which there are statistically significant results. This is an example of the {{w|multiple comparisons problem}}, which is also the topic of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">comic </del>[[882]].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Values higher than 0.1 are usually considered not significant at all, however the comic suggests taking a part of the sample (a ''subgroup'') and analyzing that subgroup without regard to the rest of the sample. Choosing to analyze a subgroup ''in advance for scientifically plausible reasons'' is good practice. For example, a drug to prevent heart attacks is likely to benefit men more than women, since men are more likely to have heart attacks. Choosing to focus on a subgroup after conducting an experiment may also be valid if there is a credible scientific justification - sometimes researchers learn something new from experiments. However, the danger is that it is usually possible to find and pick an arbitrary subgroup that happens to have a better ''p''-value simply due to chance. A researcher reporting results for subgroups that have little scientific basis (the pill only benefits people with black hair, or only people who took it on a Wednesday, etc.) would clearly be "cheating." Even when the subgroup has a plausible scientific justification, skeptics will rightly be suspicious that the researcher might have considered numerous possible subgroups (men, older people, fat people, sedentary people, diabetes suffers, etc.) and only reported the subgroups for which there are statistically significant results. This is an example of the {{w|multiple comparisons problem}}, which is also the topic of [[882<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">: Significant</ins>]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>If the results cannot be normally considered significant, the title text suggests as a last resort to invert p<0.050, making it p>0.050. This leaves the statement mathematically true, but may fool casual readers, as the single-character change may go unnoticed or be dismissed as a typographical error ("no one would claim their results aren't significant, they must mean p<0.050"). Of course, the statement on its face is useless, as it is equivalent to stating that the results are "not significant".</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>If the results cannot be normally considered significant, the title text suggests as a last resort to invert p<0.050, making it p>0.050. This leaves the statement mathematically true, but may fool casual readers, as the single-character change may go unnoticed or be dismissed as a typographical error ("no one would claim their results aren't significant, they must mean p<0.050"). Of course, the statement on its face is useless, as it is equivalent to stating that the results are "not significant".</div></td></tr>
</table>1234231587678https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1725:_Linear_Regression&diff=336630&oldid=3141061725: Linear Regression2024-03-05T13:47:49Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 13:47, 5 March 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>{{w|Linear regression}} is a method for modeling the relationship between multiple variables. In the simplest case, it can be used for two variables wherein the model determines a "{{w|least squares|best-fit}}" line through a {{w|scatter plot}} of the datasets, together with a {{w|coefficient of determination}}, usually denoted ''r''<sup>2</sup> or ''R''<sup>2</sup>. When only two variables are included in the regression, ''R''<sup>2</sup> is merely the square of the correlation between the two variables. ''R''<sup>2</sup> is a number between 0 and 1 that indicates how well one variable can be used to predict the value of another. A value of 1 means perfect correlation, while a value close to 0 indicates a weak relationship between the variables.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>{{w|Linear regression}} is a method for modeling the relationship between multiple variables. In the simplest case, it can be used for two variables wherein the model determines a "{{w|least squares|best-fit}}" line through a {{w|scatter plot}} of the datasets, together with a {{w|coefficient of determination}}, usually denoted ''r''<sup>2</sup> or ''R''<sup>2</sup>. When only two variables are included in the regression, ''R''<sup>2</sup> is merely the square of the correlation between the two variables. ''R''<sup>2</sup> is a number between 0 and 1 that indicates how well one variable can be used to predict the value of another. A value of 1 means perfect correlation, while a value close to 0 indicates a weak relationship between the variables.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A constellation is pattern created by linking the apparent positions of stars as seen in the sky from Earth. (Astronomers, in technical contexts, usually refer to these as {{w|Asterism_(astronomy)|asterisms}}, reserving "{{w|Constellation_(astronomy)|constellations}}" for the 88 regions into which the sky is divided, each named for the most prominent asterism it contains, although "constellation" is used informally in place of "asterism" by even seasoned astronomers.) Different civilizations have recognized different constellations, and one could create their own constellations by connecting assorted points, the way Randall connected points in his plot to make "Rexthor."</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>A constellation is <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">a </ins>pattern created by linking the apparent positions of stars as seen in the sky from Earth. (Astronomers, in technical contexts, usually refer to these as {{w|Asterism_(astronomy)|asterisms}}, reserving "{{w|Constellation_(astronomy)|constellations}}" for the 88 regions into which the sky is divided, each named for the most prominent asterism it contains, although "constellation" is used informally in place of "asterism" by even seasoned astronomers.) Different civilizations have recognized different constellations, and one could create their own constellations by connecting assorted points, the way Randall connected points in his plot to make "Rexthor."</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, a set of data has had linear regression and some form of statistical analysis applied to it, indicating that there is low correlation between the two. The data points are so widely scattered that (as noted in the comic) it is easier to connect the data points in a constellation-like pattern than it is to determine whether the correlation is negative or positive (without looking at the trendline, of course). Because of this, [[Randall]] suggests we should be suspicious of any conclusions drawn from this data.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, a set of data has had linear regression and some form of statistical analysis applied to it, indicating that there is low correlation between the two. The data points are so widely scattered that (as noted in the comic) it is easier to connect the data points in a constellation-like pattern than it is to determine whether the correlation is negative or positive (without looking at the trendline, of course). Because of this, [[Randall]] suggests we should be suspicious of any conclusions drawn from this data.</div></td></tr>
</table>172.70.115.132https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336155&oldid=3361512899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-29T16:39:12Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation: </span> s/stss/sts/</span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 16:39, 29 February 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l17" >Line 17:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 17:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For example, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, and its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. So they offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>For example, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, and its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. So they offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Hearing about Goodhart's Law, White Hat <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">suggestss </del>eliminating metrics that have become targets.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Hearing about Goodhart's Law, White Hat <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">suggests </ins>eliminating metrics that have become targets.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
</table>141.101.98.103https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336151&oldid=3360952899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-29T15:54:39Z<p>Previous editor accidentally removed the Title Text explanation. Also, it's good form in the Explanation section (of this or any wiki) if the first sentence is a summary explanation, so reverting back to that.</p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 15:54, 29 February 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Cueball</del>]] <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when </del>a metric <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">— a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense </del>of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">systemic objectives. Hearing this, [[White Hat]] suggests eliminating </del>metrics that have become targets<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. The joke is that White Hat's suggestion implicitly defines a new metric</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">namely the number of metrics eliminated. Goodhart's Law immediately applies to this new metric, as </del>"<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">replacing hundreds of outdated metrics per hour" (per the title text) doesn't necessarily improve anything</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">White Hat</ins>]] <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">suggests creating </ins>a <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">meta-</ins>metric, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"number-</ins>of<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</ins>metrics<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</ins>that<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</ins>have<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</ins>become<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</ins>targets," <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and making it a target</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">As another example of </del>Goodhart's Law, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">so </del>its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">They </del>offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">First, Cueball introduces and defines {{w|</ins>Goodhart's Law<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">For example</ins>, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and </ins>its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">So they </ins>offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Hearing about Goodhart's Law, White Hat suggestss eliminating metrics that have become targets</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The title text imagines this '''poorly-designed implementation''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake." </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics. </ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</div></td></tr>
</table>Laser813https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336095&oldid=3360942899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-29T04:01:15Z<p>pointed out the comic's joke early on</p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 04:01, 29 February 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l11" >Line 11:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[White Hat]] suggests <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">creating </del>a <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">meta-</del>metric, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"</del>number<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</del>of<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-</del>metrics<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">-that-have-become-targets</del>," <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and making it a target</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, [[Cueball]] introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives. Hearing this</ins>, [[White Hat]] suggests <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">eliminating metrics that have become targets. The joke is that White Hat's suggestion implicitly defines </ins>a <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">new </ins>metric, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">namely the </ins>number of metrics <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">eliminated. Goodhart's Law immediately applies to this new metric</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">as "replacing hundreds of outdated metrics per hour</ins>" <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(per the title text) doesn't necessarily improve anything</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">First, the comic introduces and defines {{w|</del>Goodhart's Law<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives. </del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">As another example of </ins>Goodhart's Law, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">so </ins>its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">They </ins>offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">For example</del>, imagine a scenario in which a car dealership is looking to grow profits, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and </del>its managers decide to focus on increasing a component metric of profit: how many cars it sells. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">So they </del>offer a bonus to their salespeople to sell more cars. But then the salespeople offer deep discounts to rack up sales, rendering the car sales unprofitable. This example shows how a ''metric'' (cars sold) can become the ''target'', replacing the real target, profit growth, if individual incentives are not properly managed.</div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The title text imagines this '''poorly-designed implementation''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake." </del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics. </del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</div></td></tr>
</table>DKMellhttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336094&oldid=3360932899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-29T02:10:59Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[White Hat]] suggests creating a meta-metric, "number-of-metrics-that-have-become-targets," and making it a target.<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">d</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[White Hat]] suggests creating a meta-metric, "number-of-metrics-that-have-become-targets," and making it a target.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>First, the comic introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>First, the comic introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives.  </div></td></tr>
</table>172.71.159.22https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336093&oldid=3360582899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-29T02:10:48Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 02:10, 29 February 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Explanation==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[White Hat]] suggests creating a meta-metric, "number-of-metrics-that-have-become-targets," and making it a target.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In this comic, [[White Hat]] suggests creating a meta-metric, "number-of-metrics-that-have-become-targets," and making it a target.<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">d</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>First, the comic introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>First, the comic introduces and defines {{w|Goodhart's Law}}, which is the observation that when a metric — a {{w|performance indicator|measure of performance}} — becomes a goal, efforts will be unhelpfully directed to improving that ''metric'' at the expense of systemic objectives.  </div></td></tr>
</table>172.71.159.21https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1122:_Electoral_Precedent&diff=336071&oldid=3343311122: Electoral Precedent2024-02-28T18:49:05Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| 1788  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| 1788  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the United States{{Citation needed}}<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the United States<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</ins>{{Citation needed}}</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| True</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>| True</div></td></tr>
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</table>42.book.addicthttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336058&oldid=3360572899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T16:48:14Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation: </span> Trying to synthesise the two standpoints. In the real world, management often ''is'' incompetent.</span></p>
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</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l19" >Line 19:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''well-designed implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues (assuming the fix isn't worse than the status quo). If submissions are in good faith, bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions, and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will likely be better off.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''well-designed implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues (assuming the fix isn't worse than the status quo)<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, and would employ sufficient management oversight to discourage trivial submissions</ins>. If submissions are in good faith, bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions, and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will likely be better off.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''poorly-designed implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
</table>172.69.194.182https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336057&oldid=3360562899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T16:44:33Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 16:44, 28 February 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l34" >Line 34:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While there is a temptation to game any metric, measurement is the main objective way of describing the success of an activity and assessing the effect of changes. "Data-driven" or "evidence-based" approaches are used to drive measurable improvements in various areas of society.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While there is a temptation to game any metric, measurement is the main objective way of describing the success of an activity and assessing the effect of changes. "Data-driven" or "evidence-based" approaches are used to drive measurable improvements in various areas of society.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Discussions of Goodhart's Law have noted [https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/] that people may respond to a metric by either (1) improving the system, (2) distorting that system (examples below), or (3) distorting the data (e.g., governments publishing false or cherry-picked economic data). Channeling energy toward improvement requires an organization to make (1) more appealing (flexibility and culture) and the others less (transparency, culture, reduced pressure to meet unrealistic goals). Figuring out how to do that involves a slow and thoughtful process unlike White Hat's <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">unilateral </del>jump to a new metric.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Discussions of Goodhart's Law have noted [https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/] that people may respond to a metric by either (1) improving the system, (2) distorting that system (examples below), or (3) distorting the data (e.g., governments publishing false or cherry-picked economic data). Channeling energy toward improvement requires an organization to make (1) more appealing (flexibility and culture) and the others less (transparency, culture, reduced pressure to meet unrealistic goals). Figuring out how to do that involves a slow and thoughtful process unlike White Hat's <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">kneejerk </ins>jump to a new metric.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td></tr>
</table>172.70.85.27https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336056&oldid=3360542899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T16:21:11Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Additional examples of Goodhart's Law</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The classical example of Goodhart's Law is the {{w|Perverse_incentive#The_original_cobra_effect|Cobra Effect}}: anecdotally the British rule in India paid bounties for dead cobras as a pest control effort. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">This worked at first</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">but soon people </del>began breeding cobras <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">for income</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The classical example of Goodhart's Law is the {{w|Perverse_incentive#The_original_cobra_effect|Cobra Effect}}: anecdotally the British rule in India paid bounties for dead cobras as a pest control effort. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">People quickly realized that more cobras allowed them to harvest more for the bounty</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">and </ins>began <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">actively </ins>breeding cobras.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">A school's exam results may ''suggest'' </del>how well <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">the </del>school <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">works with </del>its <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">pupils</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">but may lead to rigidly "teaching </del>to the exams<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">" </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">lead </del>to <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">less enjoyment and ability of life-long learning</del>, or even <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">flexibility in non-academic activities</del>.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">School test scores are intended as a metric for </ins>how well <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">a </ins>school <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">is teaching </ins>its <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">students. When that becomes an incentivized target</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">schools are forced </ins>to <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">design their curriculum around </ins>the exams<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, which can create a more rigid system which fails to engage students </ins>and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">teachers. In extreme cases, this can motivate decisions </ins>to <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">remove underperforming students from school districts</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">or encourage teachers to allow </ins>or even <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">facilitate cheating</ins>.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A hospital measures inpatient ''Length of Stay'' because shorter stays save money and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">also </del>free up beds for <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">any admitted </del>patients <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">waiting in the ER</del>. But <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">if improperly incentivized</del>, doctors <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">may </del>discharge <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">inpatients </del>too <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">early</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">causing some to "bounce back" to the hospital as a </del>costly <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">readmission</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A hospital measures inpatient ''Length of Stay'' because shorter stays save money and free up beds for <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">other </ins>patients. But <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">this metric, on its own</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">may encourage </ins>doctors <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">to </ins>discharge <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">patients </ins>too <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">soon. This not only puts patients at risk</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">but can also result in </ins>costly <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">re-admissions</ins>.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A call center measures the number of calls handled per hour<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, but poorly decides to overly incentivize this metric to make the workers more productive; that leads </del>workers to <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">cut </del>calls short, frustrating <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">customers</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A call center measures the number of calls handled per hour <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">as a measure of worker productivity. This can drive </ins>workers to <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">rush through </ins>calls<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, terminating them as quickly as possible, which can lead to </ins>short, frustrating <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">interactions</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The hypothetical {{w|Instrumental convergence#Paperclip maximizer|Paperclip Maximizer}} concept demonstrates how having a seemingly benign metric as a goal might still result in almost unlimited adverse effects, if unchecked.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* The hypothetical {{w|Instrumental convergence#Paperclip maximizer|Paperclip Maximizer}} concept demonstrates how having a seemingly benign metric as a goal might still result in almost unlimited adverse effects, if unchecked.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Tromaghttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336054&oldid=3360202899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T16:05:10Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 16:05, 28 February 2024</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="4" style="text-align: center;" class="diff-multi" lang="en">(One intermediate revision by the same user not shown)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l19" >Line 19:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">good </del>implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, and then only if </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">effort in finding and removing them did not outweigh </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">benefit of removing them</del>. If bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">benefit in each individual case. However, even a prima facie 'good' implementation could drive significant activity seeking out metrics that are eventually rejected as deserving a bonus, undermining the overall benefit</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">well-designed </ins>implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(assuming </ins>the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">fix isn't worse than </ins>the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">status quo)</ins>. If <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">submissions are in good faith, </ins>bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, </ins>and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">likely be better off</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">bad </del>implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">poorly-designed </ins>implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text imagines this '''<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">bad </del>implementation''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake."  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text imagines this '''<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">poorly-designed </ins>implementation''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake."  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics.  </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While there is a temptation to game any metric, measurement is the main objective way of describing the success of an activity and assessing the effect of changes. "Data-driven" or "evidence-based" approaches are used to drive measurable improvements in various areas of society. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management. </del>Discussions of Goodhart's Law have noted [https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/] that people may respond to a metric by either (1) improving the system, (2) distorting that system (examples below), or (3) distorting the data (e.g., governments publishing false or cherry-picked economic data). Channeling energy toward improvement requires an organization to make (1) more appealing (flexibility and culture) and the others less (transparency, culture, reduced pressure to meet unrealistic goals). Figuring out how to do that involves a slow and thoughtful process unlike White Hat's unilateral jump to a new metric.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">===Discussion of the promises and perils of operational measurement===</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>While there is a temptation to game any metric, measurement is the main objective way of describing the success of an activity and assessing the effect of changes. "Data-driven" or "evidence-based" approaches are used to drive measurable improvements in various areas of society.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Discussions of Goodhart's Law have noted [https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/] that people may respond to a metric by either (1) improving the system, (2) distorting that system (examples below), or (3) distorting the data (e.g., governments publishing false or cherry-picked economic data). Channeling energy toward improvement requires an organization to make (1) more appealing (flexibility and culture) and the others less (transparency, culture, reduced pressure to meet unrealistic goals). Figuring out how to do that involves a slow and thoughtful process unlike White Hat's unilateral jump to a new metric.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td></tr>
</table>Laser813https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336020&oldid=3360142899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T10:33:51Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Additional examples of Goodhart's Law</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 10:33, 28 February 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* The classical example of Goodhart's Law is the {{w|Perverse_incentive#The_original_cobra_effect|Cobra Effect}}: anecdotally the British rule in India paid bounties for dead cobras as a pest control effort. This worked at first, but soon people began breeding cobras for income.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A school's exam results may ''suggest'' how well the school works with its pupils, but may lead to rigidly "teaching to the exams" and lead to less enjoyment and ability of life-long learning, or even flexibility in non-academic activities.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A school's exam results may ''suggest'' how well the school works with its pupils, but may lead to rigidly "teaching to the exams" and lead to less enjoyment and ability of life-long learning, or even flexibility in non-academic activities.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A hospital measures inpatient ''Length of Stay'' because shorter stays save money and also free up beds for any admitted patients waiting in the ER. But if improperly incentivized, doctors may discharge inpatients too early, causing some to "bounce back" to the hospital as a costly readmission.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A hospital measures inpatient ''Length of Stay'' because shorter stays save money and also free up beds for any admitted patients waiting in the ER. But if improperly incentivized, doctors may discharge inpatients too early, causing some to "bounce back" to the hospital as a costly readmission.</div></td></tr>
</table>172.69.223.163https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=336014&oldid=3359952899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-28T09:06:24Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 09:06, 28 February 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>White Hat's suggestion could be a good or a bad idea. It all depends on how the bonus incentive is awarded:</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''good implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues. If bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will benefit.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''good implementation''' would award bonuses only for finding metrics which truly aren't serving their purpose, so the organization's managers could fix the measurement issues<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, and then only if the effort in finding and removing them did not outweigh the benefit of removing them</ins>. If bonuses are awarded only for approved submissions and the identifications result in real improvements, the organization will <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">benefit in each individual case. However, even a prima facie 'good' implementation could drive significant activity seeking out metrics that are eventually rejected as deserving a bonus, undermining the overall </ins>benefit.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''bad implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''bad implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
</table>172.69.43.221https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2899:_Goodhart%27s_Law&diff=335995&oldid=3359452899: Goodhart's Law2024-02-27T22:24:43Z<p>Value of metrics, ways to reduce incentives to game the system</p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 22:24, 27 February 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''bad implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* A '''bad implementation''' would offer a bonus to every identification, regardless of quality. This would incentivize the identification of even quite useful metrics — and perhaps even the ''creation'' of new metrics-as-targets for the sole purpose of then removing them and collecting the bounty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text imagines this '''bad <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">implemention</del>''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake."  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text imagines this '''bad <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">implementation</ins>''', leading to the creation of a new metric (metric changes per hour) and the organization identifying — and ''replacing'' — hundreds of metrics per hour, crowding out actual focus on the organization's true goals. It's the ultimate example of "change for change's sake."  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Part of the joke is that White Hat's original suggestion — the new metric causing the issue and one that ''should'' be replaced — seems to be ironically surviving the replacement of hundreds of other metrics.  </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic illustrates that the thoughtless combination of Goodhart's Law and poorly designed incentives can have ruinous results for an organization.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">While there is a temptation to game any metric, measurement is the main objective way of describing the success of an activity and assessing the effect of changes. "Data-driven" or "evidence-based" approaches are used to drive measurable improvements in various areas of society. </ins>The proper usage of organizational metrics and incentives is the focus of {{w|managerial accounting}}, a field within organizational management<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. Discussions of Goodhart's Law have noted [https://commoncog.com/goodharts-law-not-useful/] that people may respond to a metric by either (1) improving the system, (2) distorting that system (examples below), or (3) distorting the data (e.g., governments publishing false or cherry-picked economic data). Channeling energy toward improvement requires an organization to make (1) more appealing (flexibility and culture) and the others less (transparency, culture, reduced pressure to meet unrealistic goals). Figuring out how to do that involves a slow and thoughtful process unlike White Hat's unilateral jump to a new metric</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===Additional examples of Goodhart's Law===</div></td></tr>
</table>Magtei