Talk:1126: Epsilon and Zeta
Does this have anything to do with the Italians convicting a bunch of scientists for failing to predict an earthquake? 22.214.171.124 16:46, 26 October 2012 (UTC)
- Link? lcarsos (talk) 18:46, 26 October 2012 (UTC)
- It was all over the news, but here's one account. I wonder if there are jurists in the Italian legal system aware of how much of a laughing stock this is making them. -- IronyChef (talk) 04:44, 27 October 2012 (UTC)
- Note that the conviction was overturned by the appeals court. --MareCrisium (talk) 22:12, 11 June 2015 (UTC)
- Actually, these "scientists" did issue a forecast: they assured that no quake was coming. This of course is ridiculous, since no one can currently make any such forecast. Out of 309 victims of the L'Aquila earthquake, at least 20 stopped taking the appropriate precautions, and would still be alive otherwise. This is why at the trial all 7 defendants were found guilty.
- On appeal, 6 of them were acquitted because they raised a reasonable doubt of their involvement in the forecast (which was advertised as a result of the whole commission). The 7th was still found guilty in the appeal. The case is now to be discussed on the supreme court, so the remaining 6 might still find themselves in jail, where they deserve to be for making predictions which are totally un-scientific.
- Unfortunately, many news outlets outside Italy reported the issue in an incorrect way, they said they were found guilty for failing to predict the quake. They did a prediction, which had no basis in science, and was totally wrong (maybe their crystal ball was foggy). Some people followed their advice, and died as a result. The commission members must be held accountable of their deeds.
- Of course Randall couldn't be thinking of Italian seismologists. The NHC is a serious institution. And Randall knows perfectly well the difference between "failing to predict a quake" and "predicting that there won't be a quake".
- --Lou Crazy (talk) 16:43, 31 August 2015 (UTC)
xkcd 980 (Money) also mentioned the fact that forecast accuracy has improved significantly: "Cost of hurricane forecast improvement funding since 1989: $440 million. Economic savings -- during Hurricane Irene alone -- due to limiting evacuations made possible by recent forecast advances: $700 million." S (talk) 00:16, 27 October 2012 (UTC)
I've added the rest of Zeta's saga, and added links in the transcript to each NHC message. Recommend the Quotes section be removed. David.windsor
- The transcript section is just a transcript, but not the explain. I did a clean up. But that links like:
- would be a great source for an proper explanation here. The explain itself is still a mess.
- --Dgbrt (talk) 21:43, 6 December 2013 (UTC)
If somebody could add the links on the Zeta quotes, that would be great. Thanks! P.S. I'm not sure about transcript etiquitte, but if you do revert the links in it, please make them less bulky than the original. A list of "panel one: see here. Panel two..." might work. Kyt (talk) 19:04, 4 January 2014 (UTC)
It seems that the links in the transcript are not working correctly. For me it gives all 404 errors... what is going on? 126.96.36.199 18:58, 10 February 2014 (UTC)