https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1282:_Monty_Hall&feed=atom&action=history1282: Monty Hall - Revision history2024-03-19T05:26:21ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.30.0https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1282:_Monty_Hall&diff=333120&oldid=prev172.69.22.163: /* Explanation */2024-01-18T08:17:19Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 08:17, 18 January 2024</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and more specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This comic is a reference to the US game show ''{{w|Let's Make a Deal}}'', and more specifically the {{w|Monty Hall problem}}, a probability puzzle based on the show and named after its original host, {{w|Monty Hall}}. The premise of the show was that Hall would offer "deals" to contestants pulled from the audience in which they could win cash and prizes. Some deals involved games/tasks the contestant had to perform, while others simply involved the contestant making choices between a series of doors or boxes. In such games of choice, there were often several prizes and typically at least one "zonk", the show's name for an undesirable "gag" prize, which on the original Monty Hall version of the show were frequently animals such as goats.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}}, a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats, and behind one of them is a car. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>In the {{tvtropes|MontyHallProblem|classic version of the Monty Hall Problem}} <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">(which was never featured on the show exactly as written</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">but does otherwise match the aesthetics of the show) </ins>a contestant is offered a choice of three doors. Behind two of the doors are goats, and behind one of them is a car. First, the contestant chooses a door, which remains closed. The host then opens one of the two remaining doors and reveals a goat. The contestant is then offered a final choice of whether to switch their choice to the remaining closed door, or keep the door they originally chose. The problem involves an analysis of the probability of the contestant choosing the car given certain circumstances.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).</div></td></tr>
</table>172.69.22.163https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1282:_Monty_Hall&diff=320830&oldid=prev84596Gamma: /* Explanation */2023-08-14T00:38:40Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:38, 14 August 2023</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l14" >Line 14:</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The problem assumes that a contestant would want to win a car, and would be disappointed to win a goat, which most contestants would have no ability to house, and no use for. The comic shows that [[Beret Guy]], upon the host revealing that door B has a goat behind it, chooses to take the goat to keep as a pet, which makes them both very happy. This is much like, and may be an allusion to, the Simpsons episode {{w|Bart Gets an Elephant}}, in which Bart opts for the gag prize of an African Elephant rather than the $10,000 award. According to an [http://www.tvparty.com/gamemonty2.html interview] with Monty Hall, several contestants actually decided to keep the animals; although rare, it was allowed since the animals were offered as prizes (and they were a lot more expensive than the consolation cash prize).</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text references the car and the other goat, untouched behind the remaining doors.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The title text references the car and the other goat, untouched behind the remaining doors<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, and spoofs that the other goat will perform a car heist and drive away</ins>.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===The Monty Hall Problem===</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>===The Monty Hall Problem===</div></td></tr>
</table>84596Gammahttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1282:_Monty_Hall&diff=314470&oldid=prevMat0329Lo: /* The Monty Hall Problem */2023-05-29T18:10:48Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">The Monty Hall Problem</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 18:10, 29 May 2023</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:montyforexplainxkcd.png]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:montyforexplainxkcd.png]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><!-- Alter to make 1 car, 2 goat, and 3 goat like in comic? --></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, assuming that the host has knowledge of which doors contain goats, and that their choice of which door to open is always an unchosen door containing a goat, it is actually twice as likely that the contestant will win the car if they switch than if they keep their original choice. This is because the contestant initially had a one-in-three chance of choosing the car and a two-in-three chance of choosing a goat. Switching always wins the car in those two-thirds of cases where the contestant initially chose a goat. The probability of winning by switching is therefore the same as the probability that the contestant initially chose a goat.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, assuming that the host has knowledge of which doors contain goats, and that their choice of which door to open is always an unchosen door containing a goat, it is actually twice as likely that the contestant will win the car if they switch than if they keep their original choice. This is because the contestant initially had a one-in-three chance of choosing the car and a two-in-three chance of choosing a goat. Switching always wins the car in those two-thirds of cases where the contestant initially chose a goat. The probability of winning by switching is therefore the same as the probability that the contestant initially chose a goat.</div></td></tr>
</table>Mat0329Lohttps://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1282:_Monty_Hall&diff=283210&oldid=prevTheusaf: Reverted edits by Donald Trump (talk) to last revision by CRLF2022-05-26T19:57:59Z<p>Reverted edits by <a href="/wiki/index.php/Special:Contributions/Donald_Trump" title="Special:Contributions/Donald Trump">Donald Trump</a> (<a href="/wiki/index.php?title=User_talk:Donald_Trump&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="User talk:Donald Trump (page does not exist)">talk</a>) to last revision by <a href="/wiki/index.php/User:CRLF" title="User:CRLF">CRLF</a></p>
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