# Difference between revisions of "2046: Trum-"

 Trum- Title text: Excited to vote for future presidents Bill Eisenhamper, Amy Forb, Ethan Obample, and Abigail Washingtoast.

## Explanation

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Before Donald Trump, Harry S. Truman (1884-1972) was president of the United States between 1945 and 1953. Megan notes that both of these presidents' last names start with "T-R-U-M-". Megan mentions "totally unrelated presidents", as there are several presidents of the US who have the exact same last name who are related, for example, John Adams and John Quincy Adams (father and son) and the recent the father and son, the George Bushes (H.W. and W.).

The joke is that of all the weird things in the present (Trump's) presidency, this is the "least weird". Trump's presidency has been plagued with various scandals.

The title text lists "absurd" last names that could start with the same letters as other presidents: Bill Eisenhamper, Amy Forb, Ethan Obample, and Abigail Washingtoast. These would refer to Dwight D. Eisenhower, Gerald Ford, Barack Obama, and George Washington.

## Transcript

[Cueball and Megan walking together while talking.]
Megan: It's pretty weird that we've had two totally unrelated presidents whose last names start with "T-R-U-M-".
Cueball: Oh, sure, that's definitely the weirdest thing about the presidency right now.
Megan: It's less weird than every other fact. But still weird.
Cueball: True.

# Discussion

This is not that weird. If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206% 141.101.99.185 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Yes, but we already "fulfilled our obligation" after the sixth president :) Zachweix (talk) 15:59, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
That would be the lower boundary, because you assume all letters are equally likely to occur. Some n-grams will have a higher probability than others. E.g. it is far less likely for the second letter to be a Q than to be a U,so a better estimate would involve Markov chains including the probability of all letters on a certain position, given the previous letters etc.141.101.76.58 05:46, 15 September 2018 (UTC)
Q doesn't work because he's related to his father John Adams. The criteria that they be totally unrelated is to restore it to the realm of pure chance. -boB (talk) 17:24, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening. So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%. 162.158.155.194 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

I love that we are now having a mathematical discussion about how weird things are in the presidency. Zachweix (talk) 15:58, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

Should we mention Andrew Johnson and LBJ, perhaps in a "Trivia" section? Obviously Johnson is a very common surname, but they're still unrelated presidents that share the first (and only) 7 characters of their last name. (Are there other pairs of presidents that share at least the 3 first letters of their surnames besides AJ/LBJ and HST/DJT?) 172.69.62.160 16:25, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

They ARE related, distantly. https://www.geni.com/path/Lyndon-B-Johnson-36th-President-of-the-United-States+is+related+to+Andrew-Johnson-17th-President-of-the-USA?from=6000000002045454764&to=361204095530004567 SDSpivey (talk) 19:18, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
I think 28 degrees of separation is distant enough to consider them unrelated. -boB (talk) 20:01, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
No, they are not related. It says "Andrew Johnson, 17th President of the USA is Lyndon B. Johnson, 36th President of the United States' fifth cousin 10 times removed's 6th great nephew!" In other words, Andrew Johnson and Lyndon Johnson are both related to Lyndon Johnson's fifth cousin 10 times removed, but they are not related to each other. They do not share a common ancestor. Saying that Andrew Johnson and Lyndon Johnson are related is like saying that your parents are related to each other because both of them are related to you (your mother is your father's child's mother).173.245.48.171 05:33, 18 September 2018 (UTC)

...And, upon reflection, I just realized Harding shares the first 3 letters with the Presidents Harrison, so that's one(?) more example. 162.158.186.246 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

So we discount Presidents Adams, Bush, Cleveland, Harrison and Rosevelt as being related, or being the same person. We have the following common starts: Bu (3 names), Cl, Ha (3 names), Ta, Har, Trum and Johnson. Also A, B, C, F, G, H, J, M, P, R, T and W. 162.158.154.241 16:49, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

If you count Buren as opposed to Van Buren then you have 4 starting Bu and 2 starting Bur 162.158.155.146 16:52, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

Tyler and Taylor is weirdly close, in a "look elsewhere effect" kind of way. Although the fact that you elected a president whose name means "fart" in British English has got to be weirder. 162.158.155.158 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)