Difference between revisions of "718: The Flake Equation"
(384) |
(→Transcript: added transcript) |
||
Line 16: | Line 16: | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | : | + | The Flake Equation: |
+ | |||
+ | P = W<sub>P</sub> × (C<sub>R</sub> + M<sub>I</sub>) × T<sub>K</sub> × F<sub>0</sub> × F<sub>1</sub> × D<sub>T</sub> × A<sub>U</sub> ≈ 100,000 | ||
+ | |||
+ | Where: | ||
+ | : W<sub>P</sub> = World Population (7,000,000) | ||
+ | : C<sub>R</sub> = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000) | ||
+ | : M<sub>I</sub> = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000) | ||
+ | : T<sub>K</sub> = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10) | ||
+ | : F<sub>0</sub> = Average number of people they tell | ||
+ | : F<sub>1</sub> = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account | ||
+ | : D<sub>T</sub> = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10) | ||
+ | : A<sub>U</sub> = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) | ||
+ | |||
+ | Caption: Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a ''huge'' number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe! | ||
{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
[[Category:Math]] | [[Category:Math]] |
Revision as of 16:36, 21 September 2013
Explanation
This explanation may be incomplete or incorrect: Please include the reason why this explanation is incomplete, like this: {{incomplete|reason}} If you can address this issue, please edit the page! Thanks. |
The Flake equation is a parody of the Drake equation, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the galaxy.
The title text refers to Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox as a parody of the Fermi paradox: the contradiction between the high estimated probability of extraterrestrial civilization and humanity's lack of evidence for such civilizations.
Another comic parodying this equation is 384: The Drake Equation.
Transcript
The Flake Equation:
P = W_{P} × (C_{R} + M_{I}) × T_{K} × F_{0} × F_{1} × D_{T} × A_{U} ≈ 100,000
Where:
- W_{P} = World Population (7,000,000)
- C_{R} = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000)
- M_{I} = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000)
- T_{K} = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10)
- F_{0} = Average number of people they tell
- F_{1} = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account
- D_{T} = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10)
- A_{U} = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters)
Caption: Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a huge number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe!
Discussion
Anybody notice that the real product of the numbers he gives is 6.3 (10), not 100,000? 02:32, 16 April 2017 (UTC)
No, it's not - you've multiplied Cr and Mx when you should have added them. The real product is 126,000 = 100,000. 162.158.69.51
There was a later comic about our capabilities' precluding of UFO sightings and such. I may find it at some point. --Quicksilver (talk) 02:51, 20 August 2013 (UTC)
Settled
googlesearch=site:explainxkcd.com ufo
http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1235:_Settled
Kevin McCready (talk) 13:25, 10 May 2014 (UTC)
Is there any significance to the word "flake"? Urban Dictionary says it stands for "unreliable person", but certainly not in context of alien sightings. --162.158.90.217 13:34, 26 August 2015 (UTC)
It's a portmanteau of "Drake" and "Fake". --172.68.10.94 10:58, 4 February 2017 (UTC)