Difference between revisions of "718: The Flake Equation"

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(Created page with "{{comic | number = 718 | date = 2010-03-24 | title = The Flake Equation | image = the flake equation.png | titletext = Statistics suggest that there should be ...")
 
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{{comic
 
{{comic
 
| number    = 718
 
| number    = 718
| date      = 2010-03-24
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| date      = March 24, 2010
 
| title    = The Flake Equation
 
| title    = The Flake Equation
 
| image    = the flake equation.png
 
| image    = the flake equation.png
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==Explanation==
 
==Explanation==
The Flake equation is a parody of the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation Drake equation], which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the galaxy.
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The Flake equation is a parody of the {{w|Drake equation}}, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy.
  
The alt-text refers to Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox as a parody of the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox Fermi paradox]: the contradiction between the high estimated probability of extraterrestrial civilization and humanity's lack of evidence for such civilizations.
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The title text refers to Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox as a parody of the {{w|Fermi paradox}}: The contradiction between the high estimated probable existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of establishing contact to such civilizations by humans.
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Another comic parodying this equation is [[384: The Drake Equation]]. The credibility of paranormal reports in general is revisited in [[1235: Settled]], which posits that if such phenomena were real they should have been unambiguously captured on camera by now.
  
 
==Transcript==
 
==Transcript==
''None available.''
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:The Flake Equation:
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:P = W<sub>P</sub> × (C<sub>R</sub> + M<sub>I</sub>) × T<sub>K</sub> × F<sub>0</sub> × F<sub>1</sub> × D<sub>T</sub> × A<sub>U</sub> ≈ 100,000
<!-- The transcript can be found in a hidden <div> element on the xkcd comic's html source, with id "transcript".
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:Where:
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::W<sub>P</sub> = World Population (7,000,000,000)
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::C<sub>R</sub> = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000)
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::M<sub>I</sub> = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000)
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::T<sub>K</sub> = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10)
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::F<sub>0</sub> = Average number of people they tell (10)
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::F<sub>1</sub> = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account (10)
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::D<sub>T</sub> = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10)
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::A<sub>U</sub> = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100)
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:Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a ''huge'' number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe!
  
 
{{comic discussion}}
 
{{comic discussion}}
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[[Category:Math]]
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[[Category:Astronomy]]

Revision as of 19:49, 6 November 2013

The Flake Equation
Statistics suggest that there should be tons of alien encounter stories, and in practice there are tons of alien encounter stories. This is known as Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox.
Title text: Statistics suggest that there should be tons of alien encounter stories, and in practice there are tons of alien encounter stories. This is known as Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox.

Explanation

The Flake equation is a parody of the Drake equation, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy.

The title text refers to Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox as a parody of the Fermi paradox: The contradiction between the high estimated probable existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of establishing contact to such civilizations by humans.

Another comic parodying this equation is 384: The Drake Equation. The credibility of paranormal reports in general is revisited in 1235: Settled, which posits that if such phenomena were real they should have been unambiguously captured on camera by now.

Transcript

The Flake Equation:
P = WP × (CR + MI) × TK × F0 × F1 × DT × AU ≈ 100,000
Where:
WP = World Population (7,000,000,000)
CR = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000)
MI = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000)
TK = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10)
F0 = Average number of people they tell (10)
F1 = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account (10)
DT = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10)
AU = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100)
Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a huge number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe!


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Discussion

Anybody notice that the real product of the numbers he gives is 6.3 (10), not 100,000? 02:32, 16 April 2017 (UTC)

No, it's not - you've multiplied Cr and Mx when you should have added them. The real product is 126,000 = 100,000. 162.158.69.51

There was a later comic about our capabilities' precluding of UFO sightings and such. I may find it at some point. --Quicksilver (talk) 02:51, 20 August 2013 (UTC)


Settled

googlesearch=site:explainxkcd.com ufo

http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1235:_Settled

Kevin McCready (talk) 13:25, 10 May 2014 (UTC)

Is there any significance to the word "flake"? Urban Dictionary says it stands for "unreliable person", but certainly not in context of alien sightings. --162.158.90.217 13:34, 26 August 2015 (UTC)

 It's a portmanteau of "Drake" and "Fake". --172.68.10.94 10:58, 4 February 2017 (UTC)
It's not actually a portmanteau, more like a play on words :) -- The Cat Lady (talk) 13:57, 19 August 2021 (UTC)

The transcript looks pretty complete to me? Why is it tagged incomplete? Mushrooms (talk) 07:50, 22 March 2022 (UTC)