Difference between revisions of "795: Conditional Risk"

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(Created page with "{{comic | number = 795 | date = September 20, 2010 | title = Conditional Risk | image = conditional_risk.png | titletext = 'Dude, wait -- I'm not Amer...")
 
(And this is why I tell myself that anons should still be allowed to make pages. That, and pre-account Curtmack.)
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{{comic
 
{{comic
 
| number    = 795
 
| number    = 795
| date      = September 20, 2010
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| date      = September 20, 2010
 
| title    = Conditional Risk
 
| title    = Conditional Risk
 
| image    = conditional_risk.png
 
| image    = conditional_risk.png
| titletext = 'Dude, wait -- I'm not American! So my risk is basically zero!'
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| titletext = 'Dude, wait -- I'm not American! So my risk is basically zero!'
 
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==Transcript==
 
==Transcript==
<!-- The transcript can be found in a hidden <div> element on the xkcd comic's html source, with id "transcript".
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:[Lightning strikes the ground, illuminating trees with a bright white light. Two people are standing near it. One has a walking stick.]
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:''CRACK''
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:''BOOM''
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:First person: Whoa! We should get inside!
: [ [Lightning strikes the ground, illuminating trees with a bright white light. Two people are standing near it. One has a walking stick.]]
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:Second person: It's okay! Lightning only kills about 45 Americans a year, so the chances of dying are only one in 7,000,000. Let's go on!
: &lt;&lt;CRACK&gt;&gt;
 
: &lt;&lt;BOOM&gt;&gt;
 
: First person: Whoa! We should get inside!
 
: Second person: It&#39;s okay! Lightning only kills about 45 Americans a year, so the chances of dying are only one in 7,000,000. Let&#39;s go on!
 
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: The annual death rate among people who know that statistic is one in six.
 
  
{{comic discussion}}  
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:The annual death rate among people who know that statistic is one in six.
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{{comic discussion}}

Revision as of 04:41, 22 December 2012

Conditional Risk
'Dude, wait -- I'm not American! So my risk is basically zero!'
Title text: 'Dude, wait -- I'm not American! So my risk is basically zero!'

Explanation

The comic deals with the difference between general probability of certain event based on entire past history and the probability of the same event in particular circumstances. While the chance of any American selected randomly from general population to be killed by lightning is very low, for a particular person already being in the circumstances where lightning might strike him or her (such as being in the midst of a thunderstorm) is much higher. Since the statistics provided talks only about Americans, the other character wrongly assumes the chance to be struck by lightning for non-American is non-existant - which underlines the difference between knowing certain event can't or didn't happen and not having any data about the event.

The "one in six" statistic is probably invented by the author - which is also illuminates the danger of dealing with "statistical data" provided by random sources without any attribution to actual statistical surveys or hard data.

Transcript

[Lightning strikes the ground, illuminating trees with a bright white light. Two people are standing near it. One has a walking stick.]
CRACK
BOOM
First person: Whoa! We should get inside!
Second person: It's okay! Lightning only kills about 45 Americans a year, so the chances of dying are only one in 7,000,000. Let's go on!
The annual death rate among people who know that statistic is one in six.
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Discussion

"I'm not American! So my risk is basically zero!"

Is the risk to Americans so low because lightning concentrates on non-Americans?

I used Google News BEFORE it was clickbait (talk) 15:42, 26 January 2015 (UTC)


The line 'The annual death rate among people who know that statistic is one in six' clearly points out that the people who know the statistic tend to be dismissive about the danger of the lightning strikes and put themselves in danger. Even though the statistic is probably invented by the author, shouldn't it go in the explanation?

I did not want to change the explanation without a discussion. (PS: I am a newbie here)

A2658742 (talk) 10:44, 10 April 2015 (UTC)a2658742

I'd like to point out that the "invented one in six statistic" is a roll of the dice. 162.158.90.161 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

1 in 6 is also the probability of shooting yourself in (classic) russian roulette. Siv3nIvy (talk) 11:41, 8 September 2016 (UTC)

This comic has been cited to illustrate the confusion of base vs conditional probability in Steven Pinker's new book [“Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters.”] --Agovita (talk) 11:17, 19 October 2021 (UTC)