http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Special:RecentChangesLinked/882:_Significant&feed=atom&target=882%3A_Significantexplain xkcd - Changes related to "882: Significant" [en]2014-07-25T16:09:15ZRelated changesMediaWiki 1.19.1http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Template:LATESTCOMIC&diff=72257&oldid=72138Template:LATESTCOMIC2014-07-25T05:26:58Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">1398</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">1399</ins></div></td></tr>
</table>Davidy22http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1399&diff=72253&oldid=7224813992014-07-25T05:22:38Z<p>Well, nice effort. Glad to see you tried to match the other pages. Even got the name right.</p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Jurassic Park and the guy who talked about </del>Chaos <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Theory. Expand,</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">#REDIRECT [[1399: </ins>Chaos<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</ins></div></td></tr>
</table>Davidy22http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1399&diff=72248&oldid=013992014-07-25T05:03:16Z<p>The premise of the joke</p>
<p><b>New page</b></p><div>Jurassic Park and the guy who talked about Chaos Theory. Expand,</div>108.162.219.209http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:882:_Significant&diff=72115&oldid=72113Talk:882: Significant2014-07-22T14:28:11Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>This explanation seems to misinterpret α. α is the chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis, a false positive. The 5% here is α. The correct interpretation of it is that if the null hypothesis is true, there is a 5% chance that we will mistakenly reject it. P in "P<0.05" is the chance that, if the null hypothesis is true, a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the result we get from this experiment. '''α is not the chance that, given our current data, the null hypothsis is true. We wish to know what that is, but we do not know.'''[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.72|108.162.215.72]] 08:52, 16 May 2014 (UTC)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>This explanation seems to misinterpret α. α is the chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis, a false positive. The 5% here is α. The correct interpretation of it is that if the null hypothesis is true, there is a 5% chance that we will mistakenly reject it. P in "P<0.05" is the chance that, if the null hypothesis is true, a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the result we get from this experiment. '''α is not the chance that, given our current data, the null hypothsis is true. We wish to know what that is, but we do not know.'''[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.72|108.162.215.72]] 08:52, 16 May 2014 (UTC)</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>In layman's terms, the comic appears to misrepresent what "95% confidence" (p <0.05) means.  The statistic "p < 0.05" means that when we find a correlation based on data, that correlation will be a false positive fewer than 5 percent of the time.  In other words, when we observe the correlation in the data, that correlation actually exists in the real world at least 19 out of 20 times.  It '''does not''' mean that 1 out of every 20 tests will produce a false positive.  This comic displays a pretty significant failure in understanding of Bayesian mathematics.  The 5% chance isn't a 5% chance that any test will produce a (false) positive; it's a 5% chance that a statistical positive is a false positive.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>In layman's terms, the comic appears to misrepresent what "95% confidence" (p <0.05) means.  The statistic "p < 0.05" means that when we find a correlation based on data, that correlation will be a false positive fewer than 5 percent of the time.  In other words, when we observe the correlation in the data, that correlation actually exists in the real world at least 19 out of 20 times.  It '''does not''' mean that 1 out of every 20 tests will produce a false positive.  This comic displays a pretty significant failure in understanding of Bayesian mathematics.  The 5% chance isn't a 5% chance that any test will produce a (false) positive; it's a 5% chance that a statistical positive is a false positive. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">{{unsigned ip|108.162.219.196}}</ins></div></td></tr>
</table>Davidy22http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Talk:882:_Significant&diff=72113&oldid=67402Talk:882: Significant2014-07-22T12:28:02Z<p>Explains the comic's Bayesian failure in clear terms for laymen.</p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>This explanation seems to misinterpret α. α is the chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis, a false positive. The 5% here is α. The correct interpretation of it is that if the null hypothesis is true, there is a 5% chance that we will mistakenly reject it. P in "P<0.05" is the chance that, if the null hypothesis is true, a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the result we get from this experiment. '''α is not the chance that, given our current data, the null hypothsis is true. We wish to know what that is, but we do not know.'''[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.72|108.162.215.72]] 08:52, 16 May 2014 (UTC)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>This explanation seems to misinterpret α. α is the chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis, a false positive. The 5% here is α. The correct interpretation of it is that if the null hypothesis is true, there is a 5% chance that we will mistakenly reject it. P in "P<0.05" is the chance that, if the null hypothesis is true, a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the result we get from this experiment. '''α is not the chance that, given our current data, the null hypothsis is true. We wish to know what that is, but we do not know.'''[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.72|108.162.215.72]] 08:52, 16 May 2014 (UTC)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">In layman's terms, the comic appears to misrepresent what "95% confidence" (p <0.05) means.  The statistic "p < 0.05" means that when we find a correlation based on data, that correlation will be a false positive fewer than 5 percent of the time.  In other words, when we observe the correlation in the data, that correlation actually exists in the real world at least 19 out of 20 times.  It '''does not''' mean that 1 out of every 20 tests will produce a false positive.  This comic displays a pretty significant failure in understanding of Bayesian mathematics.  The 5% chance isn't a 5% chance that any test will produce a (false) positive; it's a 5% chance that a statistical positive is a false positive.</ins></div></td></tr>
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