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2380: Election Impact Score Sheet

2020-11-04T18:33:11Z

108.162.219.170: /* Table */

{{comic
| number = 2380
| date = November 2, 2020
| title = Election Impact Score Sheet
| image = election_impact_score_sheet.png
| titletext = You might think most people you know are reliable voters, or that your nudge won't convince them, and you will usually be right. But some small but significant percentage of the time, you'll be wrong, and that's why this works.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by SOMEONE NOT IN ARIZONA. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President {{w|Donald Trump}}, and the challenger, former Vice President {{w|Joe Biden}}. The United States does not elect presidents by popular vote, but instead uses an {{w|United States Electoral College|electoral college}} system, with each state getting a predetermined number of electoral votes, and a majority of electoral votes needed to win an election. The previous presidential election in 2016, which involved Trump and {{w|Hillary Clinton}}, was won by Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points, but won the electoral vote 304-227 (270 was needed to win the election).

Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each. Because the United States Congress has two legislative houses, with only one (the House of Representatives) apportioning representatives to the states based on their percentage of the US population and the other (the Senate) allocating two senators to every state regardless of population, smaller states have a higher ratio of electoral college votes to population than larger states do.

Additionally, most states (all but Nebraska and Maine) give all of their electoral college votes to whoever earns the most votes in their state. This means that a small change in the percentage of voters who favor one party's candidate over another within a state doesn't make a difference on the final outcome unless that change tips the scales between the two candidates. Therefore, it's easy to predict the final electoral college votes of many states where one party has a clear lead. Other states, including some of the ones listed by Randall, are considered "{{w|swing state}}s", as they are competitive to both of the two major parties, the {{w|Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party}} and the {{w|Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party}}.

Together, these factors make voting in some states - "swing states" with smaller populations - much more likely to influence the outcome of the election than others. Randall in this comic is encouraging his readers to "{{w|get out the vote}}" and encourage voting among their friends and family who live in 18 of these states which are most likely to affect the outcome of the election. The rest of the 32 states are grouped under the "all other states" bucket, presumably as their election outcome is "safely" for Biden or Trump.

Per many analysts, the state of {{w|Pennsylvania}} is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. This is why Pennsylvania is weighted the most heavily in Randall's comic.

Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet.

The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol is typically pronounced "hashtag", and so this tag for the scoresheet is nonsensical ("HashtagHashtag"), and doesn't describe anything useful. It also refers to Nate Silver's famous election forecast model at {{w|FiveThirtyEight}}. Randall closes by urging people to contact Nate Silver to tell him to adjust his model to account for the added votes they have caused, but as the form doesn't indicate which candidate the filler has voted for or plans to vote for, never mind the people contacted, there's no way for him to know what sort of update to make. Perhaps the flurry of posts bearing the hashtag "#Hashtag" and indicating an effort to increase civic engagement will be a heartwarming surprise on a day that will probably be very busy and stressful for him.

The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong.

As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this assesment should be equally applicable to supporters of either of the two main candidates in the current presidential race.

The comic includes a link for a printable version: https://xkcd.com/2380/election_impact_score_sheet.pdf

===Table===
{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Bonus
! Electoral votes
! Explanation
|-
|Pennsylvania
|x5
|20
|Pennsylvania is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. Pre-election polling showed Biden leading by 3 points.
|-
|Maine
|rowspan="3"|x4
|4
|Maine is worth 4 electoral votes, but awards 2 based on the statewide popular vote and 1 vote each for the winners of its 2 congressional districts.
|-
|Arizona
|11
|Arizona is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year, with Joe Biden leading by 2 percentage points in pre-election polling.
|-
|Nevada
|6
|
|-
|Alaska
|rowspan="3"|x3
|3
|
|-
|Montana
|3
|
|-
|New Mexico
|5
|
|-
|Wisconsin
|rowspan="7"|x2
|10
|Wisconsin was surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as pre-election polling had him trailing by 6-7 percentage points. Polling for the 2020 election favored Biden by 7 percentage points.
|-
|Minnesota
|10
|Minnesota was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, but by a close margin of 1.5 percentage points. Polling for 2020 has Biden favored by 7 percentage points.
|-
|Iowa
|6
|
|-
|North Carolina
|15
|North Carolina is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year.
|-
|New Hampshire
|4
|
|-
|Georgia
|16
|Georgia is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year.
|-
|Nebraska
|5
|Like Maine, Nebraska splits up its votes, awarding 2 votes to the winner of the popular, and 1 each for the winners of its 3 congressional districts.
|-
|Michigan
|rowspan="5"|x1
|16
|Michigan was also surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as he was also trailing in pre-election polling. Biden has a 6 point lead in polling in 2020.
|-
|Florida
|29
|With 29 electoral votes, Florida has the 3rd most electoral votes to be distributed. It is also typically a swing state and determines the winner of an election.
|-
|Kansas
|6
|
|-
|Mississippi
|6
|
|-
|Colorado
|9
|
|-
|All other states
|x1/2
|''varies''
|Randall considers other states as less important than the above 18 in influencing the outcome of the presidential election.
|}

==Transcript==
<big>Do you know anyone in Arizona?</big>

Research shows that reminders from friends and family to vote have a bigger effect on turnout than anything campaigns do.

One of the best ways you can help is to scroll through your contacts (or use apps like VoteWithMe) to find people you can check in with to see if they plan to vote or need help doing it.

This chart lets you tally the effect of your reminders on the outcome based on who you've contacted and where they live.

<big>Election impact score sheet</big>

{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Check-ins
! Bonus*
! Points
|-
|Pennsylvania
|
|x5
|
|-
|Maine Arizona Nevada
|
|x4
|
|-
|Alaska Montana New Mexico
|
|x3
|
|-
|Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa North Carolina New Hampshire Georgia Nebraska
|
|x2
|
|-
|Michigan Florida Kansas Mississippi Colorado
|
|x1
|
|-
|All other states
|
|x½
|
|-
| colspan="3" align="right" | '''Your election impact:'''
|
|}

<nowiki>*</nowiki>Multiplier based on 538 presidential vote impact, plus points for senate and local elections

''In smaller text, to the right of the main score sheet, a duplicate of the score sheet with red tally marks and points is shown''

{| class = "wikitable"
! State
! Check-ins
! Bonus*
! Points
|-
|Pennsylvania
| (2 tally marks)
|x5
| 10
|-
|Maine Arizona Nevada
| (1 tally mark)
|x4
| 4
|-
|Alaska Montana New Mexico
| (1 tally mark)
|x3
| 3
|-
|Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa North Carolina New Hampshire Georgia Nebraska
| (3 tally marks)
|x2
| 6
|-
|Michigan Florida Kansas Mississippi Colorado
|
|x1
|
|-
|All other states
| (6 tally marks)
|x½
| 3
|-
| colspan="3" align="right" | '''Your election impact:'''
|26
|}

''Followed by an arrow, pointing to the "Your election impact" total box in the main table, is this text''

Based on turnout experiments, 10 points on this scale has roughly as much effect on the outcome as one average vote. For every 10 points you tally, it's as if you voted again!

''Below the main score sheet table''

 [Click for printable version]

Share a pic of your score sheet with ''#Hashtag'', and be sure to send a copy to Nate Silver to let him know to include those extra votes in his model!

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

Talk:1086: Eyelash Wish Log

2020-08-27T18:09:18Z

108.162.219.170:

This is one of my favorite xkcd comics ever. I can't stop laughing. -- #TEBOWTIME 17:14, 17 August 2012 (UTC)
: i know right?? feb. 27th is by far the best... --[[User:Douglasadams472|Douglasadams472]] ([[User talk:Douglasadams472|talk]]) 03:12, 16 December 2012 (UTC)

: It seems to me that February 6th's wish implies that, as a result of the previous day's wish, he now has an absurdly large number of eyelashes. Opinions? --[[User:Bobidou23|Bobidou23]] ([[User talk:Bobidou23|talk]]) 02:58, 26 May 2013 (UTC)
:i thought they were absurdly long eyelashes, like his wings in infinite wings (sry cant make links) {{unsigned ip|173.245.54.5}}
::Actually, the guy with unlimited wings is Beret Guy.. (as seen in the "strange powers of beret guy" category on this site).. Black Hat's the "classhole". --[[User:JayRulesXKCD|JayRulesXKCD]] ([[User talk:JayRulesXKCD|talk]]) 11:31, 13 October 2016 (UTC)

: I thought of Black Hat having a crazy number of eyelashes, but not attached to him, so he can't pull them for a wish. They're just in a pile on the floor or something. {{unsigned ip|173.245.56.187}}

I feel that each wish should be thoroughly explained, or at least briefly mentioned. {{unsigned ip|108.162.238.193}}
: +1, Marking this 'incomplete' [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]]) 20:09, 7 July 2014 (UTC)

March 15 may reference a painting of M.C. Escher so named "House of Stairs" [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.79|199.27.128.79]] 08:19, 8 March 2014 (UTC)

:"Revocation of rules" and especially "meta-wishes" must be references to [http://amberbaldet.com/uploads/little-harmonic-labrynth.html "Typeless Wish" scene in Göedel, Escher, Bach]. "banish people into the TV show they're talking about" might(?) also reference the plot there where Achiles and Tortoise enter Escher's Convex and Concave painting after discussing it. Surpsingly to me, that episode's only Escher illustrations are Concave and Convex & Reptiles; House of Stairs does not appear anywhere in the book. [[User:Cben|Cben]] ([[User talk:Cben|talk]]) 00:48, 9 September 2014 (UTC)

What did "zero wishes" mean? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.48.86|173.245.48.86]] 18:16, 2 April 2014 (UTC)
:Often when configuring software (especially regarding limits) 0 is taken to mean infinite, for example in a mail server's config file there may be an entry that looks like "Max number of connections: (enter 0 for unlimited)" [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.170|141.101.98.170]] 19:24, 7 July 2014 (UTC)

:My take on "zero wishes", is that it is a bit of black hattery. He wants to abuse any system he finds, by asking for zero wishes he wants to cause the eyelash wish system to crash in some way. Its not an attempt to gain more wishes, its an attempt to bring the wish system down.[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.165|141.101.98.165]] 21:16, 8 July 2014 (UTC)

My take on the title text was that Black Hat wanted to alter friction for his own amusement, rather than to affect the outcome of a sporting event as the current explanation seems to lean towards.--[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 12:32, 28 August 2014 (UTC)

Agreed. It is very in-characcter for Black Hat to simply want to mess with people, and would be very out of place to care about such trivialities as points. Ima change the mouseover description now.[[Special:Contributions/173.245.48.97|173.245.48.97]] 16:18, 22 May 2015 (UTC)

I took the April 22 wish to mean that Black Hat would have a Pokeball that works in real life, allowing him to steal the pets of random strangers on the street.[[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.124|173.245.52.124]] 23:34, 27 May 2015 (UTC)
:"Hey! No stealing another Trainer's Pokémon!". Also, talk of changing friction coefficients reminds me of the GTA "Carmageddon" videos, where the wheel friction on all the cars was set to -1, leading to most of the game being filled with cars flying through the air and exploding. -Pennpenn [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.162|108.162.250.162]] 23:30, 13 August 2015 (UTC)
::I may have used my Masterball trying to catch another trainer's Pokemon. I cracked up after it failed, but now I have no Masterball. :( {{unsigned ip|198.41.239.34}}
:::You know, there was a side series of Pokemon games that let you capture another trainer's Pokemon. It was kind of required if you wanted more than one or two Pokemon on your team. And on that day, Black Hat was mailed a copy of Pokemon Colosseum... --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.65|162.158.79.65]] 23:06, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

The first wish is an example of bootstrapping. I love it. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.76|108.162.238.76]] 23:31, 14 February 2016 (UTC)

I think the title text is a reference to the comics where he talks about Pole vaul's record involving that some records where obtain because they were nearest of equators[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.112|108.162.229.112]] 11:22, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

It would appear, for March 7th, that this came true... [[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.96|173.245.52.96]] 00:05, 24 November 2016 (UTC)

I got rickrolled. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.67|162.158.62.67]] 00:50, 13 March 2019 (UTC)

I personally like these wishes: (1) The power to know all knowable things (to include a full understanding of all available trigger conditions for wishes in the universe),
(2) the ability to always win arguments with wish granting entities, including about numbers of wishes they should grant, (3) for a stone so heavy no wish could lift it, (4) to lift that stone.

(3) and (4) together form the Russell Paradox. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.170|108.162.219.170]] 18:09, 27 August 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2322: ISO Paper Size Golden Spiral

2020-06-25T07:14:33Z

108.162.219.170:

It annoys me that the hover text says 11/8.5 = pi/4, when 8.5/11≈0.77272727272 and pi/4≈0.78539816339. Claiming 8.5/11 equals pi/4 would be a much more beleiveable lie. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.37|162.158.79.37]] 15:29, 19 June 2020 (UTC)
:The title text has since corrected this error![[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.170|108.162.219.170]] 07:14, 25 June 2020 (UTC)

The explanation says that the A series "side lengths shrink by a factor of the square root of two" but that's not true. The width of A(n+1) is half the length of A(n) as depicted. The sqrt(2) ratio referenced is between the length and width of any one piece of paper.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.62.124|172.69.62.124]] 15:35, 19 June 2020 (UTC)
:The side lengths do shrink by a factor of sqrt(2): the width of A(n) is sqrt(2) times the width of A(n+1), the length of A(n) is sqrt(2) times the length of A(n+1). Your statement that "the width of A(n+1) is half the length of A(n)" is also true, but it does not contradict that each step in the A-series shrinks the sides by a factor of sqrt(2). [[User:Zmatt|Zmatt]] ([[User talk:Zmatt|talk]]) 16:09, 19 June 2020 (UTC)

Fixed it [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.61|162.158.74.61]] 15:43, 19 June 2020 (UTC)

Hi ! How come 11/8.5 = Pi/4 ? First one is more thant 1, second one is less than one... Although Pi/4 and 8.5/11 (or the reverse) are pretty similar, as usual in "let's annoy mathematicians" Randall's style...

I think y’all just got nerd sniped by Randall’s title text.

https://xkcd.com/spiral/ --[[Special:Contributions/188.114.103.233|188.114.103.233]] 17:22, 19 June 2020 (UTC)

I understand why it annoys mathematicians (it's not the golden ratio), but why does it annoy graphics designers? Please add explanation!
::I suspect that what would annoy many (if not most) graphic designers (especially Americans) is the claim that the ISO standard for paper sizes (which is very rarely used in the US) is inherently and objectively beautiful, along with the implication that everyone should switch to using the international standard.
::The usual graphic for this is vertical and has the paper sizes getting smaller going towards the top left corner, not positioned in a spiral.
::More scientifically-minded designers would be just as annoyed as (most) mathematicians are by the persistent myth that there is something inherently beautiful about the "golden ratio" in the first place, but unfortunately they are probably not in the majority.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.50.76|172.69.50.76]] 17:50, 21 June 2020 (UTC)

It should be noted that the logarithmic spiral this comic implies it is would actually go outside the bounds of the paper. The leftmost point of the spiral would be about 6.4mm to the left of the left edge of the A1 sheet. [[User:Zmatt|Zmatt]] ([[User talk:Zmatt|talk]]) 18:39, 19 June 2020 (UTC)
:This drawing (as opposed to the singular mathematical formula behind the idealised spiral for the partitioning used) basically takes a simple quarter-oval across each distinct sheet size (with, as essentially mentioned elsewhere, the root(2) ratio between sides) alternating x/y and y/x as major and minor axes respectively. Even if it is not obviously discontinuous (x and y inflection transitions occur subtly) any derivative of the curve (as polar, say) would show jumps in gradient at each stage - probably an inclined-stepped/saw-toothy pattern whereas the true logarithmic line would demonstrate itself as a continuous function at any such level of derivation. The true spiral line followed from origin outwards would ''almost'' (not quite, because of the polar gradient) hit the 'outer edge' first in line with the ultimately recursive centre-point then withdraw again to hit the next transition slightly 'inward' of the next level out. The Golden Spiral approximation uses squares for each quarter, which therefore does not switch major and minor axes, but still changes the curve  and thus has the same not-quite-Golden nature. Although it's hard to describe, as you can see from my poor attempt that's probably inadvertently fallen foul of more specialised Pure Mathematics terminology due to the Pedant's Curse... ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.240|162.158.155.240]] 22:23, 19 June 2020 (UTC)

Mathematicians get annoyed by the claim that the golden ratio is everywhere. I love Disney's "Donald in Mathmagic Land" but they make some outrageous claims about the golden ratio's place in art and architecture. BTW, the ISO system of paper sizes is awesome! You can photocopy two A4 pages side-by-side, reduced to fit exactly on a single A4 page.
:Also they get pi wrong. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.209|162.158.79.209]] 22:18, 20 June 2020 (UTC)

: I think you mean that half of A4 is A3 ;o) [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.248|108.162.249.248]] 05:02, 24 June 2020 (UTC)

Isn't grade closer to degrees than to radians? [[User:Djbrasier|Djbrasier]] ([[User talk:Djbrasier|talk]]) 15:03, 20 June 2020 (UTC)
:It's two different things. The "[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_(slope) grade]" of a slope is just the rise divided by the run, commonly expressed as a precentage. It is not an angle measure but the tangent of an angle measure. It is commonly used in North America for surveying and engineering purposes. "[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gradian Gradian]" is a badly named angle measurement that, worse, is often referred to informally as "grade" from "centigrade".It is an angle measure, though a useless one: ten-ninths of the measure in degrees. The gradian is commonly used for surveying and engineering in some parts of Europe. The text in the current explanation confuses them, which is common due to the bad naming of the second measure. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.187.197|162.158.187.197]] 16:45, 20 June 2020 (UTC)

A friend of mine, attempting to do graphic design, once created an approximate golden spiral using the boxes diagram with quarter circles. He then laboriously produced a logo by making copies of the spiral and using pieces of it for each curve. I then informed him that all the curves in his image were just circular segments. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.69.44|172.69.69.44]] 16:36, 20 June 2020 (UTC)

[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.216|108.162.216.216]] 15:21, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

The reason ISO paper sizes use an aspect ratio equal to the square root of two is that makes enlarging or reducing in copiers work better. With the US sizes, when you enlarge or reduce to the next standard size up or down, you have to choose between cutting off part of your original or leaving some blank space, because US standard paper sizes aren't the same shape.

It was done before photocopiers could do reduction or enlarging as cutting in half always produces the same shape of page.

[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.216|108.162.216.216]] 15:21, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

: I never knew this, but it is no surprise. :P [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.248|108.162.249.248]] 05:03, 24 June 2020 (UTC)