explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1885: Ensemble Model

2017-09-07T13:20:37Z

162.158.122.102: Ensemble models are a form of a Monte Carlo Analysis. They are used in many engineering analyses, usually to determine an upper limit for some particular limiting quantity.

Where's the guy who knows how to make tables? A table would be good for this article, so we could explain each joke scenario. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.26.5|172.68.26.5]] 15:41, 4 September 2017 (UTC)
:I don't like tables when the text in the data cells is more than only a few words. That's bad layout. I have entered all the text from the list into separate headers for the appropriate floating text layout.--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 18:39, 4 September 2017 (UTC)
Might be worth mentioning the context for this comic; viz. the approach of hurricane Irma, with a wide range of predictions as to where it might end up (and which areas it would hit), making weather modeling (and hurricane modeling in particular) – and the uncertainties involved – topical. It's clear to us now, but won't be clear to readers a few years from now. [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 01:37, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
:Wait - you mean it's not related to Harvey? (In other words, I'm not part of the "us" you speak about.) -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 02:17, 5 September 2017 (UTC)global warming https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1885:_Ensemble_Model
::I'm pretty sure this was inspired by Irma, not Harvey, because it's about uncertainty in weather modeling; which has received more attention with Irma than it did with Harvey. By the time America started paying real attention to Harvey the National Hurricane Center already had a very good (and accurate) idea about its future path. By contrast, the uncertainties in the Irma models [http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html made CNN's front page] long before Irma was anywhere near populated areas. Also, it would be a bit late for Randall to do a Harvey comic; Harvey was last week's news. (Of course, Harvey did make hurricanes cool again.) [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 13:24, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

I would say that one the idea of randall is related to point the change climate denier invalid reasoning that despite all scenario of global warning show increase of temperature, the fact that none of each is very likely to be wrong then all are wrong. (The fallacy is in the last then: the reunion of little probability can lead to high confidence or a the reunion of sum of various probable things can lead to absolutely certain ) [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 02:35, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

I have to disagree with the original explanation (now fixed) that ''"there is no reason to have the locomotion speed of dogs as a parameter"''. Dogs are known to chase cats, cats kill a large number of birds, birds eat insects including butterflies. If dogs would run slightly faster there could be a significant variation in the amplitude of the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect Butterfly effect]. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.147|141.101.69.147]] 12:13, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
:Besides, the running speed of dogs would presumably impact how often, and where, one would experience raining cats and dogs.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:30, 6 September 2017 (UTC)
"[one extra cloud in the Bahamas] is most likely too specific and subtle a difference to be useful to the model." - Doesn't that depend on the size and disposition of said cloud? I'd say the problem here is vagueness, rather than insignificance.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:35, 6 September 2017 (UTC)

The upper graph looks like one plotting global temperatures with time using different scenarios, like this one: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-5.html". I do not think this is an appropriate example of an ensemble model. The several trajectories for global temperature are for different policy decisions. In an ensemble model various trajectories reflect uncertainty about are a result of uncertainty about initial conditions or the physical rules that control the evolution of the system. TLDR: A map is not an ensemble model.
The uncertainty (shaded area) for each track may or may not be the result of an ensemble, but if it is an ensemble for one of the scenarios would be a better example.
Also ensembles are typically used for non-linear, chaotic systems and this should probably be somewhere in the explanation.
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.159|162.158.62.159]] 17:06, 6 September 2017 (UTC)

Ensemble models are a form of a Monte Carlo Analysis. They are used in many engineering analyses, usually to determine an upper limit for some particular limiting quantity. The idea is that you do not necessarily believe any of the individual analyses, but that the ensemble forms an envelope of outcomes, so that if you design for the most extreme case, you can be confident that your design will not fail. They are used to make sure that the design is robust and has margin to failure. Of course, you cannot consider all of the uncertainties, which is why it is important to carefully identify sources of uncertainty before you do the analyses. If you do generate an ensemble envelope, and the data for the particular event falls outside the envelope, it is time to seriously reconsider the models, or the sources of uncertainty.13:20, 7 September 2017 (UTC)~~

Talk:1105: License Plate

2017-01-21T00:37:45Z

162.158.122.102:

In New Jersey (USA), the laws allowing personalize license plates specifically disallows plates in the format of a standard plate.

Wouldn't this idea be more effective (theoretically) with 0's and O's (that is, zeroes and capital O's)? [[User:Erenan|Erenan]] ([[User talk:Erenan|talk]]) 15:58, 7 September 2012 (UTC)
Many localities disallow one or the other for specifically that reason. In my locality, the letter O is not allowed in *ANY* license plate, not even the randomly assigned ones, so AAN-999 would be followed by AAP-000, rather than the expected AAO-000. Although at a quick glance, a capital Q looks similar to a number 0. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.243|199.27.128.243]] 23:37, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

Shouldn't this be comic 1111? Only 2 weeks to go. --[[User:Xkpd|Xkpd]] ([[User talk:Xkpd|talk]]) 19:32, 7 September 2012 (UTC)

The last line of title text should have been 'Clever girl'. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO5wryDdEI0 --[[Special:Contributions/69.120.249.184|69.120.249.184]] 19:34, 7 September 2012 (UTC)

Discussing this comic over chat with a friend...
A: I thought he actually robbed the banks..and she pre-emptively ratted him out. Apparently, an alternative interpretation is that she committed the robbery. Which one of the two is it?
B: She robbed the banks.
A: Well, you can just fake any number plate. Why bother faking his unusual one specifically? Unless, she's a sadist of course...
B: Just 'cause he leaked his plans to her
A: lol #LessonsToBeLearnt #NeverTellWomenAnything
B: Agreeeed!

::I don't think she FAKED his plate, I think she bought another personalized plate with a different combination of 1's and I's which the police just assumed was his because of his already existing reputation as the guy committing crimes with the 1's and I's license plate. [[User:TheHYPO|TheHYPO]] ([[User talk:TheHYPO|talk]]) 14:10, 10 September 2012 (UTC)

:::I was of the impression that he actually committed the robberies, and that the "clever"-ness was in getting him to admit that he was with his car (instead of his car being stolen or borrowed.) --[[Special:Contributions/193.150.8.123|193.150.8.123]] 15:13, 29 September 2012 (UTC)

::::I thought he had only committed the one crime (vandalization) and the police tricked him into admitting it by accusing him of 5 other fake crimes.[[Special:Contributions/38.118.83.250|38.118.83.250]] 19:58, 14 November 2012 (UTC)

Um, I'm pretty sure the license plate office specifically forbids use of certain characters BECAUSE of their ambiguity. Like, I and O are not allowed in PA because of their similarity to 1 and 0. So this comic lives in the realm of fiction where they haven't thought of that already. --[[User:Tustin2121|Tustin2121]] ([[User talk:Tustin2121|talk]]) 16:35, 9 September 2012 (UTC)

Just after this ran, I saw a photo (on some internet "funny photo" site) of a car with an actual New Your state license plate made up of only Bs and 8s (e.g. "B88BB8B") for a similar effect.

I saw a BMW with license plate "I1IIIII" a day or two after this ran. 17:45, 14 September 2012 (UTC)

If they were ever brought to court in the US, assuming they were both driving the same type of car, they would be able to provide enought mutual reasonable doubt as to which one of them had done it. [[Special:Contributions/67.41.79.164|67.41.79.164]] 03:37, 16 June 2013 (UTC)

I played a game called Everybody Edits, where the 5 and S were the same. nobody could perform the /kick command on me >:D {{unsigned ip|‎184.11.73.88}}

Owning a car with a number plate is not considered a crime in Britain. I would have thought even if a non-sequitur is permissible in the US, it only applies to dark skinned people?[[User:Weatherlawyer| I used Google News BEFORE it was clickbait]] ([[User talk:Weatherlawyer|talk]]) 19:52, 20 January 2015 (UTC)

Is it just me, or are the lines in this comic really thick? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.122.102|162.158.122.102]] 00:37, 21 January 2017 (UTC)

Talk:1788: Barge

2017-01-20T18:08:58Z

162.158.122.102:

Any reason why the background is black in this one? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.234.34|162.158.234.34]] 16:35, 20 January 2017 (UTC)

When did the fine print at the bottom of the xkcd homepage change? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.122.102|162.158.122.102]] 18:08, 20 January 2017 (UTC)

Talk:1780: Appliance Repair

2017-01-02T15:22:46Z

162.158.122.102:

He took it apart because it's not working. It's not working because he took it apart. And so we are all a part of the Great Circle of Life. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.122.102|162.158.122.102]] 15:22, 2 January 2017 (UTC)

Talk:1778: Interest Timescales

2016-12-28T07:53:22Z

162.158.122.102:

I think the parts of the mountain that suddenly rise(s) refers to lava, smoke, ash, etc. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.122.102|162.158.122.102]] 07:53, 28 December 2016 (UTC)

Talk:1777: Dear Diary

2016-12-26T13:15:56Z

162.158.122.102:

I am not sure if he is actually referring to his own diary. His characters can't interact with him, and never do. To me, it seemed more like Black Hat is so used to fisching on the web that he can't even write a regular diary entry. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.22|108.162.219.22]] 06:15, 26 December 2016 (UTC)Innertuber40

Is it possible that instead of the metaphoric "Dear Diary", maybe he is literally writing to a person named "Diary"? This can explain the phishing mail body, at least in some extent. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.59.172|162.158.59.172]] 12:51, 26 December 2016 (UTC)

Just seemed to be an absurd comic to me when I read it. I hadn't considered that he could be applying a scam as a contingency for someone finding his diary, or simply planting it to be found, but it wouldn't be out of character for him to do so. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.122.102|162.158.122.102]] 13:15, 26 December 2016 (UTC)