explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2381: The True Name of the Bear

2020-11-06T20:22:19Z

162.158.158.183:

This one is ridiculously early. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.22.120|172.69.22.120]] 05:22, 4 November 2020 (UTC)

Let’s try this again, hopefully won’t get stepped on this time... I know I’ve seen Gretchen on various YouTube channels but is she really “the world's foremost internet linguist” as Randal claims?[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.87|162.158.79.87]] 05:29, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:Probably as a linguist studying internet culture, which she is indeed one of the most famous in that area. Most popular linguist on the internet? It's everyone's guess.
:From Randall Munroe to Tom Scott... how much more proof do you need? Or is it a conspiracy theory waiting to happen? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.143|162.158.74.143]] 16:34, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
Well, after being mentioned by Randall she totally might become the most known one.

"Arth" is Welsh for bear.
:Sounds rather close to the French "[https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ours#French ours]" (which derives from Latin and whose pronunciation has virtually nothing in common with the English word of the same spelling).--[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.29|141.101.69.29]] 15:24, 6 November 2020 (UTC)

Hence King Arthur [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 20:22, 6 November 2020 (UTC)

Hmm... I find Ponytail's behaviour strange. At first she asks for explanation/verification of Megan's claim and when she recieves it she yells "NO!" as if she already knew it would be true... [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 09:14, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:She gets confirmation that the name is lost in panel 3 (and assumes it also confirms the summoning part). So she indeed knew by panel 4.[[Special:Contributions/141.101.68.66|141.101.68.66]] 10:51, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:: Why isn't the bear's name summoning it after its name being said out loud in panel 3, though? Or is the name only "true" in English (in which the name didn't exist until Gretchen reconstructed it)? Doesn't make sense. /edit: I know we are talking about myths and superstition here and thus it might be all somewhat hazy but this comic is imho not self-consistent. I'm not used to inconsistent comics on XKCD (unless it's done on purpose for humorous effect which in this case seems not to be true). Thus my irritation. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 11:13, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:::They are clearly in England (or the Anglosphere in general, though English isn't the official language in the US, merely customary) and by the Rules Of Summoning an English/etc 'bear' ''must'' only respond to the locality-sanctioned word (said with intent, not a coincidentally homophonic collection of syllables, not saying the exact same word but in the sense of being actually quoting a different language that uses the same word).
:::I theorise that the Welsh are saying ''their'' bear-name in slightly the wrong accent for being useful to summon a Welsh bear (maybe it should be more "Ardd"?) due to excessive Anglicisation. Or the Celtic way of not-saying-the-true-Celtic-word is to habitually say the Anglic one, which thus does not count. Or the Welsh bears are just confused by the current trend for dual-language signage and expect/require both. (Welsh then English in one half of the country, English followed by Welsh in the other part of the nation.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.208|141.101.98.208]] 12:55, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:::If we're worried about consistency here, how is it that all the Romance language speakers (e.g. Orso for Italians, Oso for Spaniards, etc) get away without being constantly mauled? Perhaps it's only the *true* name of the bear, -rkto, that summons the animal. I suppose that would give an explanation of why we don't see any Indo-European speakers around nowadays... [[User:Gbisaga|Gbisaga]] ([[User talk:Gbisaga|talk]]) 13:37, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
:::*NOTE* I've added an explanation that attempts to summarize this consistency discussion. But somebody reverted it. Why? It doesn't seem out of line, compared to a lot of what I read on explainxkcd. [[User:Gbisaga|Gbisaga]] ([[User talk:Gbisaga|talk]]) 14:29, 4 November 2020 (UTC)

:: It need not be so complicated. Perhaps there is only 1 ur-bear (ha ha) that can teleport when it hears the magic word. If the magic word is said many times every day in Wales, that ur-bear would be exhausted by teleportation and only rarely does saying the name cause it to do so. Whereas in English, the first time in years it has been summoned is in this comic, so of course it comes. [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 19:54, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
: Or simply the summoning only works when the true name is said in the currently spoken language (English), not as a foreign word. And consistency on how it works or doesn't work in other languages is really really overthinking, as this comics is not about other languages and says nothing on summoning technicalities.[[Special:Contributions/141.101.68.66|141.101.68.66]] 00:53, 6 November 2020 (UTC)
:: How does the bear know which language is spoken, though... Besides, I'm not sure if this is overthinking if it's basically the first thought I had regarding this comic. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 12:34, 6 November 2020 (UTC)

Fascinating! In Russian, the word for bear is also euphemistic, pronounced as ''medved'', which roughly means "knowledgeable about honey". But until today, I thought that something like "ber" is in fact its true name. Turns out it's not even that. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.236|162.158.238.236]] 14:02, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
: Actually, ''medved'' is 'honey-eater', see these two links (in Russian) https://pikabu.ru/story/kto_krayniy_za_medvedem_fenomen_tabu_v_lingvistike_5812897 and https://pikabu.ru/story/kak_rabotaet_istoricheskaya_lingvistika2_v_berloge_yetimologa_5817400 [[Special:Contributions/162.158.183.205|162.158.183.205]] 16:14, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
::Accurate! [[User:Lettherebedarklight|aoijgpisbHtejsykl7ekderhtsjk6r64os4kys\\\[]jsrtjgdrghtvgwrhtejyku5dli6;78t7l6rk5j4h|||||#Rty-----WWWWWWfflfllfllfllfeogk0q9wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww4-cv;c;;c;c[;]z\]d;v[\]????????OH GOD IT'S CRASIHNG MY PC��]] ([[User talk:Lettherebedarklight|talk]]) 06:40, 6 November 2020 (UTC)
:I've just been down a Wikipedia rabbit-hole, because of this information, to try to work out why I don't remember it being reported that Medvedev had resigned and replaced by Mishustin. (Or replaced ''with'' him, wherever he emerged from, ''by'' Putin, to be strictly accurate.). Probably we were more concerned about the Constitutional changes, then 'other things' hit the headlines. Not comic-related, but thank you for enlightening me on both linguistic and (as a side-effect) political subjects. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.26|162.158.158.26]] 16:39, 4 November 2020 (UTC)

: What were the linguistic speculations that the header mentioned? Even if there's no source, they shouldn't be removed.

I thought the reconstruction was *rtkos, not *rktos? Wikipedia agrees: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Reconstruction:Proto-Indo-European/h₂ŕ̥tḱos [[Special:Contributions/162.158.183.205|162.158.183.205]] 16:14, 4 November 2020 (UTC)
: You’re absolutely correct. Not only is the thorn cluster backwards according to the most commonly accepted reconstruction, it also has the wrong velar (should be *k̑, not *k), AND the laryngeal is missing. The syllabicity marker on the *r is also missing, though the nature of the right-to-left syllabification rule means that the *r would at least automatically be syllabified anyway. This was the main thing that really bothered me about this comic, along with the fact that the expected English form would absolutely not be ''**arth'', but ''*urth'' (or perhaps just ''*ur'' (OE ''*urh-'').
: So yes, there’s an awful lot wrong with the actual linguistics in this one. Which is very disappointing. :-( [[Special:Contributions/162.158.134.40|162.158.134.40]] 09:40, 6 November 2020 (UTC)

I bet a dollar that the long-lost English word for "bear" was "Voldemort". [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.242|108.162.215.242]] 01:03, 5 November 2020 (UTC)

: Oh-oh. You said it. This is why you need to create an account - you don't want people randomly summoning you by your true name "Mr/Ms 108.162.215.242" !! [[User:SteveBaker|SteveBaker]] ([[User talk:SteveBaker|talk]]) 17:48, 5 November 2020 (UTC) (Not my real name which is...oh wait...nearly got me there!)

In Finnish bear is karhu, which is also an euphemistic word meaning "the rough one". There are many other words for bear as well, such as kontio (one that walks slowly), nalle ("bear" in Swedish), mesikämmen (the nectar palm), metsän kuningas (the king of the forest), kouko/kouvo (some kind of ghost?), otava (this one would take way too long to explain) and finally oksi/ohto/otso, which likely is the true name. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.238.239|162.158.238.239]] 11:46, 5 November 2020 (UTC)

A safe name to avoid the name of something dangerous is known as [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noa-name noa-name] [https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/noa (further reference)]. You find it also for the wolf, devil, god, leprechauns etc. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.154.215|162.158.154.215]] 20:51, 5 November 2020 (UTC)

The etymological joke might be on the comic writer - hrtkos might be itself a euphemism, cognate with a word in Sanskrit that meant "destroyer" - possibly "hive destroyer."
"''there is also a suggestion that the original PIE word for bear, *rkso- (or its variants) is itself descriptive, meaning "destroyer (perhaps of beehives)", because a cognate word in Sanskrit is "rakshas", meaning "harm, injury''""
Who really knows? Same source identifies the name in Lithuanian as a different euphemism - "the shaggy one." And wonders about a German, a Slav, and a Balt arguing about the best circumlocution while being careful not to slip up and make themselves an xkcd punchline. Anyway, it's a fun read: [https://charlierussellbears.com/LinguisticArchaeology.html] [[User:Jd2718|Jd2718]] ([[User talk:Jd2718|talk]]) 22:52, 5 November 2020 (UTC)

I wonder if the fact that the brown bear (aka grizzly) has been disappearing from most of North-America as the Germanic languages expanded there, could be cited as (weak) evidence that the euphemism actually prevents bears from appearing.--[[User:Pere prlpz|Pere prlpz]] ([[User talk:Pere prlpz|talk]]) 13:12, 6 November 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-11-02T13:03:01Z

162.158.158.183: /* Free Throw meaning */ new section

(Sidenote: for the 88% entry in the comic, "outside" is misspelled as "outide" as of the current moment.)

What's the best way to organize the explanations for this comic, when they begin to be added? By the order they're listed in the comic? That seems inefficient, since presumably many of the entries can be answered as a group by a single explanation. If they should be grouped, how should they be grouped? --[[User:V2Blast|V2Blast]] ([[User talk:V2Blast|talk]]) 03:59, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
: The table I added is sortable. You could add a "type" column of some sort and users could sort by that if they want. [[User:Captain Video|Captain Video]] ([[User talk:Captain Video|talk]]) 04:42, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
There's a discrepancy between the version here and the current official version. Here, 0.2% has the red M&Ms thing paired with the odds of drawing a flush in poker ("you draw 5 cards and they're all the same suit"); the official version has it with "You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M." Here, the latter piece of information is at 0.1%, and there the 0.1% item is "Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed." I'm guessing we have an old version of the page? [[User:Captain Video|Captain Video]] ([[User talk:Captain Video|talk]]) 06:03, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
: Updated. [[User:Natg19|Natg19]] ([[User talk:Natg19|talk]]) 08:29, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
:: Cool, thanks. [[User:Captain Video|Captain Video]] ([[User talk:Captain Video|talk]]) 01:22, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

Wouldn't the Lord of the rings one be, technically, 67%, since 66.6666666... rounds to 67%, not 66? Also, we should really add a better comment interface. [[User:BarnZarn|BarnZarn]] ([[User talk:BarnZarn|talk]]) 06:28, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
: The same goes for the next entry, imho, since LOTR-one is 2 out of 3 movies and the dice rolls are 4 out of 6, which comes down to the exact same percentage.

Hooray, xkcd is finally xkcd again! For the last fifty strips it’s basically been lighter SMBC. Yay Randall!

Also, if anyone wants to read something very English and very horrible, https://endicottstudio.typepad.com/poetrylist/the-white-road-by-neil-gaiman.html. [[User:Lightcaller|Lightcaller]] ([[User talk:Lightcaller|talk]]) 07:21, 31 October 2020 (UTC)

I have to think the second to last is off. First, what is meant by "just been"? Minutes, hours, days? Second, does anyone know the correct number of 10-digit phone numbers that are answered by people named "Barack Obama" (as pronounced, not spelled)? I remember that Obama had a cell, and including the phones in his office and his bedroom (separate #'s), so during his term, that's at least 3. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 15:50, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
:first of all, this is no longer his term, so the number of phone numbers he has nowadays might be different. Also, the scenario requires him to pick up the phone, and he probably wouldn't simultaneously be available to pick up a phone in both his office and bedroom, and unless it's a cell phone, only a fraction of the time would he be there. Also, like many people, he might not answer calls from unknown numbers, or he may have a secretary or someone screening his calls. Judging from the following line though, the calculations used here probably just used 1 in 10 billion for that value, leaving only the "just been an 8.0 earthquake in Calfornia" part.--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.124|108.162.216.124]] 09:12, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

:Isn't the second to last entry really just a sneaky way of listing the probability of a magnitude 8 earthquake having just occurred in California? The entry says nothing about Barack Obama actually answering the phone, nor even that the number dialed being Barack Obama's. If agreed, then can the explanation in the table be updated? If disagreeing, then I'd appreciate you pointing out where I'm in error.

:Could Obama's phone number be referring to when he Tweeted a phone number to text him at in late September[https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1308769164190941187]? And so the chance of it being the correct number is much higher? [[User:B. A. Beder|B. A. Beder]] ([[User talk:B. A. Beder|talk]]) 01:09, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

guys i have never edited the transcript section im scared. — [[User:Sqrt-1|The 𝗦𝗾𝗿𝘁-𝟭]] [[User talk:Sqrt-1|talk]] [[Special:Contributions/Sqrt-1|stalk]] 16:36, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
:This comic has so many American jokes and brands I can't understand this... I found this from [https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1263600/probability-of-picking-up-two-mms-of-same-color-randomly mathematics stack exchange] and that helped me understand what this M&M stuff is... — [[User:Sqrt-1|The 𝗦𝗾𝗿𝘁-𝟭]] [[User talk:Sqrt-1|talk]] [[Special:Contributions/Sqrt-1|stalk]] 16:39, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
::Alright, I if the only colours are red green and blue how can there be fucking yellow or brown godammit I give up someone else do this shit AHAHAHA — [[User:Sqrt-1|The 𝗦𝗾𝗿𝘁-𝟭]] [[User talk:Sqrt-1|talk]] [[Special:Contributions/Sqrt-1|stalk]] 16:45, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
:::There are currently 6 colors, blue, red, brown, yellow, green and orange. Each comes in different ratios, for some reason. If there were all the same ratio, then getting 2 that are both red would be 1/36=2.777%, so red is below average. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 00:58, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
::::The colors used to be different a number of years ago. I forget what year, but they had a contest for people to vote on a new M&M flavor. They had people vote between blue, pink, and purple. I guess blue won as both pink and purple are considered girly colors and blue is considered manly, but the presencee of two girly colors split the vote for that. At the same time they got rid of there having used to be light brown M&Ms, and for a while they had commercials with blue M&Ms singing the blues. Anyway, I also read speculation the reason some colors are more common is they put less of the ones where the dye they use is more expensive, though I'm not sure if that's accurate.--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.124|108.162.216.124]] 09:07, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

I don't understand the "You share a birthday with two US Senators" as being 4%. If there is only one pair of U.S. Senators with the same birthday, then your chance of sharing a birthday with them would be 1/365 (~0.27%). --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.143|162.158.74.143]] 20:25, 31 October 2020 (UTC)
:I'm not certain of the math offhand, but it is the odds of randomly sharing a birthday with 2 out of 100 Senators. Not that just a pair shares one with you. Although all this birthday talk ignores Feb 29 births. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 00:58, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
::I just noticed the note about there being 9 days that have a pair of Senators sharing a birthday. Does the 4% take that into consideration? [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 01:08, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
:::It's been updated to say that there are 15 days that have at least 2 Senators who share a birthday. That would make the probability (15/365.25), or 4.1%, so Randall is correct. (Using 365.25 to account for Feb. 29 births.) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.55|162.158.74.55]] 03:57, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

Um... in the Trivia section, someone wrote:

"the 67% probability of rolling at least a 3 with a D6 is correct. "At least a 3" means a 3, 4, 5, or 6."

Four out of six is ~67%, right? Please don't tell me I've forgotten basic maths. I'm going to delete that section, but feel free to add it back in if I'm just being an idiot. [[User:BlackHat|BlackHat]] ([[User talk:BlackHat|talk]]) 22:28, 31 October 2020 (UTC)

The explanation for the Social Security Number is wrong- it should be that there are ten possible digits for each of the four digits you're trying to guess. The number of digits in a SSN doesn't matter since the comic specifies you're only guessing the last four. [[User:Duraludon|Duraludon]] ([[User talk:Duraludon|talk]]) 00:59, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
:In addition, there are no valid SSN's with any group as all zeros, so there are only 9999 valid numbers to guess at. Still close enough to .01% [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 13:21, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

XKCD comics are getting later and later in the (American) day. This one was posted Sunday the 1st, from the point of view of us Aussies. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.119.159|162.158.119.159]] 01:40, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

== 2/3 = both 66% and 67%? ==

I get picking either 66% or 67% as a rounding for 2/3 but to have one of each?? Is there any actual reason for this?

<blockquote>66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice 67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6</blockquote>

[[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.152|162.158.79.152]] 21:40, 31 October 2020 (UTC)

I wonder what time frame he meant for there "just" having been an earthquake in California.--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.124|108.162.216.124]] 09:03, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

Angus King is from Maine, that’s ME not MN. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.200|108.162.219.200]] 14:43, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

== Do we do calculus? ==

I think I've got how Randall did the birthday party/free-throw calculations, but it's kind of math-intensive. How much should I put in the explanation column? It's quite easier to explain with summations, but that requires a lot of background to someone who doesn't know calculus (i.e., probably a lot of people who read this). Should I forego the sum entirely? Should I say "the proof is by magic"? Also, at least some of this is stemming from the fact that I have no clue how one would insert a summation sigma into the editing, and I'm too afraid to try it. I'll write it with a bunch of plus signs (basically a sum, but longhand notation) until somebody decides to step in and clean it up. [[User:BlackHat|BlackHat]] ([[User talk:BlackHat|talk]]) 18:05, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

== Let's talk M&Ms ==

I'm beginning to think Randall is nerd-sniping us, because none of the values for M&M colours seem to line up with his source. The easiest example to demonstrate is '77% : An M&M is not blue'. '''Nowhere in the article is there a value which rounds to 23% for blue M&Ms.''' Most of the other calculations also seem to have small-scale differences, and a few have differences so big only using the 95% confidence interval values help. Can anybody figure out his line of reasoning with this? [[User:BlackHat|BlackHat]] ([[User talk:BlackHat|talk]]) 19:12, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
:You have to remember that 87% of all stats are made up. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 21:24, 1 November 2020 (UTC)

== Hemispheres and Seasons ==

Should there be a note of the fact that the summer/winter percentages are only true in the northern hemisphere? In the southern hemisphere, where summer is December-February and winter is June-August, the figures should be reversed (and at the equator, summer and winter don't really exist). [[Special:Contributions/172.68.86.114|172.68.86.114]] 21:49, 1 November 2020 (UTC)
:I'm not entirely sure ''which'' season boundaries are being espoused. Equinox/Solstice ones (summer starts on "mid-summer's day", ''sic''), mid-way between adjacent equinoces/solstices (mid-summer's day ''is'' exactly half way through summer), meteorlogical (groupings of three calendar months)..? I suspect the latter, to provide the off-quarter values from almost continually variable month-lengths, but the other two (in conjunction with the elliptical orbit of the Earth changing the rate each phase of oscillation made by the ecliptic) would be a far more scientific reason worthy of Randall. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.102|162.158.155.102]] 02:47, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

== Obama earthquake probability ==

I'm was thinking about the second-to-last probability. This should be Pr[call Obama] * Pr[Magnitude 8 earthquake "just" occured in CA] = 5e-18.
* From the phrasing we assume 10-digit numbers are dialed randomly, giving Pr[call Obama] = 1e-10
* From the previous quake we know Pr[CA quake/year] = 2e-3
* The time period for "just occurred" is not defined.
* SDSpivey points out there is some ambiguity with the number of phones Obama has and whether to include the probability of him answering personally

If we assume Obama answers a single phone number than the time period would be 5e-18/(1e-10 * 2e-3) = 2.5e-5 years = 13 minutes.

It seems likely that a 15 min period was considered for "just occurred", which would be within rounding error of the quake probability.
--[[User:Quantum7|Quantum7]] ([[User talk:Quantum7|talk]]) 09:59, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

== Free Throw meaning ==

Hi! Would it be possible to add an explanation as to what a free throw is, for the benefit of those of us who know nothing about basketball? Thanks! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 13:03, 2 November 2020 (UTC)

2379: Probability Comparisons

2020-10-31T22:09:08Z

162.158.158.183:

{{comic
| number = 2379
| date = October 30, 2020
| title = Probability Comparisons
| image = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between d6 and d20 types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each).

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry".

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}} which was less than a week away at the time this comic was published, and had also been aluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and psephologist {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number. (1/10)4 = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, and 10%3 = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^3 ≈ 0.225%; 0.125^3 ≈ 0.177% .
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 . 0.25^4≈ 0.39%; 0.259^4 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
|{{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 . 0.131^2 ≈ 1.7%; 0.125^2 ≈ 1.6% .
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), which is approximately 0.019 (2%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.5^5, or 3.125%.
|
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)3 = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
|
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| Senators Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Thune (R-SD) were both born January 7. 
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card (could be repeated) within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)3 ≈ 6% .
|
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. 
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
|
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the U.S.A. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% of being in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so, giving the odds of sharing a birthday as 44/365 ≈ 12% .
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(120) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of reds is either 0.131 or 0.125 .
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14% .
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
|
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) ≈ 18% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.92=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
|
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
|
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
|
|-
| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
|
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The winter lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been two a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
|
|
|-
| 27%
|
|
|-
| 32%
|
|
|-
| 33%
|
|
|-
| 34%
|
|
|-
| 35%
|
|
|-
| 39%
|
|
|-
| 40%
|
|
|-
| 46%
|
|
|-
| 48%
|
|
|-
| 50%
|
|
|-
| 53%
|
|
|-
| 54%
|
|
|-
| 58%
|
|
|-
| 60%
|
|
|-
| 65%
|
|
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%.
|-
| 67%
|
|
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time.
|-
| 73%
|
|
|-
| 75%
|
|

|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90%
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
|
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
|
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
|
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
|
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
|
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
|
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
|
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
|
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
|
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
|
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
|
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
|
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
|
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
|
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
|
|}

The title text refers to the song {{w|Call Me Maybe}} by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

Pace previous comment, the 67% probability of rolling at least a 3 with a D6 is correct. "At least a 3" means a 3, 4, 5, or 6.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

'''PROBABILITY COMPARISONS'''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]

Talk:2269: Phylogenetic Tree

2020-02-17T19:06:07Z

162.158.158.183: Spilling eroors korrected

Because of timezones this comic was released on Sunday in some areas [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.228|172.69.34.228]] 07:21, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
:Well, it's always either that or Tuesday in some areas, right? However, yes, this again was up quite early. But the exact upload times seem to fluctuate heavily all the time. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 07:40, 17 February 2020 (UTC)

I don't know much about basketball (only heard about march Madness here/xkcd and on HIMYM before), but where is Gonzaga coming from? shouldn't it be either UVA, Kansas or FSU? or is it a different name for one of those 3 teams? Also: Do we need a march madness category? maybe as a subcategory of bracket tournaments? It seems to be quite reocurring. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 07:43, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
:Gonzaga is on here as a joke. In 2019, late night host Jimmy Kimmel humorously refused to believe that they were a real college from the start of the tournament. They lost in their division finals.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.241|162.158.74.241]] 16:01, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
::While you are correct, I think the question is how they show up in the tree without being shown on any of the lower branches. Since this tree is about genetics, my guess is it's supposed to be a mutation that just appears out of nowhere. Gonzaga has had a few good years in the past, most notably this detail from Wikipedia: "Gonzaga advanced to the Elite 8 of the 2015 NCAA tournament, losing to eventual national champion and No. 1 ranked Duke." I suspect it's no coincidence that they lose to Duke in this tree! [[User:Ianrbibtitlht|Ianrbibtitlht]] ([[User talk:Ianrbibtitlht|talk]]) 16:25, 17 February 2020 (UTC)

Could someone explain what a "March Madness Bracket" is? It appears to be something to do with American college basketball, but why does it have the same structure as a phylogenetic tree? What does the word 'Bracket' mean here? {{unsigned ip|141.101.98.148|07:48, 17 February 2020}}
:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracket_(tournament) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.214.82|162.158.214.82]] 07:51, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
:Seconded. The explanation as it stands assumes that the reader is from the USA and understands American sports. Neither of these is true for me. Can we please have concise one-line explanations of:
* what sport?
* what teams?
* what a bracket is?
* what tournament this refers to?
I was a biologist; the science part is clear to me. It needs an explanation akin to that about phylogeny, for non-sports-followers and non-US-sports followers. [[User:Lproven|Lproven]] ([[User talk:Lproven|talk]]) 09:02, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
:: Getting better! Terms now undefined: "NCAA", "ABA", "NBA", "Division 1", "single elimination", "bracket pool", "college basketball". [[User:Lproven|Lproven]] ([[User talk:Lproven|talk]]) 11:05, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
::: NCAA = National Collegiate Athletic Association, but it doesn't cover all colleges -- just the bigger ones. NBA national Basketball Association, the (main?) pro basketball grouping of mens' teams (as opposed to the WNBA). ABA is _probably_ the American Basketball Association, of which I know nothing (but guessing by analogy with NBC/ABC television networks; National/American Broadcasting Company. And college basketball is, well, basketball played by college teams. For the rest of it, I'm out of my league. {{unsigned ip|162.158.74.55|06:41, 17 February 2020}}
:::: From what I understand, the NCAA categorize teams into divisions, with Division 1 being the highest. "Single elimination" is a type of tournament bracket where once you lose a match, you're done. A bracket pool is where people get together and each makes a prediction of the bracket. Whoever is closest to what actually happened wins. The ABA is the American Basketball Association. {{unsigned ip|108.162.212.173|09:02, 17 February 2020}}

The three prominent "Duke"s in the center of the chart, made me look for the logical continuation "of Earl." I didn't see it... :( {{unsigned ip|162.158.74.55|06:41, 17 February 2020}}
* That would be a reference to the 60's song {{W|Duke of Earl}}. It has a refrain "duke, duke, duke of earl..." [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 17:09, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
* Likewise. Also, duck fuke. {{unsigned ip|173.245.52.85|07:52, 17 February 2020}}

SO is the displayed bracket last seasons? a prediction for this season? completely random? Are they even real universities? Or is Randall embedding more jokes? What is Basketball? why do universities play it? why do we care? It is only February - why are we discussing March? Mind you May Week is in June and the Octoberfest in September so March Madness could be in February for all I know? [[User:Arachrah|Arachrah]] ([[User talk:Arachrah|talk]]) 16:59, 17 February 2020 (UTC)

And what is with the colours?
*All the universities mentioned (at least, those whose names are legible) are real universities: Duke University, Gonzaga University, University of Louisville, University of Dayton, University of Virginia ("UVA"), University of Kansas, Florida State University ("FSU"). Most of them are ranked highly in the current basketball rankings (published by the Associated Press and compiled from a weekly poll of sportswriters) -- Duke #6, Gonzaga #2, Louisville #11, Dayton #5, Kansas #3, Florida State #8. (These are rankings of how well the basketball teams are playing in the current season.) Virginia isn't doing as well this season, but they did win the national championship last season. It is reasonable to predict that all seven of the universities mentioned will be selected to play in the tournament this year (about 350 schools are eligible, and 68 of them are selected). Since "March Madness" (the championship tournament) is the culmination of the entire season, basketball fans start caring about March Madness before the month of March starts. (This year the tournament begins on March 17 and ends on April 6.) This tree isn't formatted properly to be comprehensible as an actual prediction of the tournament. --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.236|108.162.216.236]] 18:45, 17 February 2020 (UTC)
:(What is it with the colours...) In the Biological sense, colours indicate the direct 'lineage' from the common ancestor (or an offshoot from that line) to a given end-creature (or swathes as a whole family/clade/whatever branch). In the Bracketting sense, it would show the route to the final (or as far as they got) of a competitor or a group of competitors. I'm not sure which it's 'intended' to be, but I'm sure it's a common phylogenetic tree convention, outside of this peculiar mashup.
:Incidentally, I misread the comic at first as mentioning 'Duke Gonzag'''o'''', as per the lines from Hamlet: "The Mousetrap. Marry, how? Tropically. This play is the image of a murder done in Vienna. Gonzago is the duke’s name, his wife Baptista. You shall see anon. 'Tis a knavish piece of work, but what o' that? Your majesty and we that have free souls, it touches us not. Let the galled jade wince, our withers are unwrung." [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.92|162.158.155.92]] 18:54, 17 February 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2204: Ksp 2

2019-09-18T18:27:06Z

162.158.158.183:

Can someone create a KSP category? I don't have the rights to do that. Comics for that category include this one, [[1356:_Orbital_Mechanics]], [[1350:_Lorenz]], [[1244: Six Words]], [[1106: ADD]]. There may be others as well. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.184|172.68.211.184]] 18:05, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

In the explanation, I took the "Unmarked Cash Payments" to be payoffs to the KSP2 team to delay their launch. [[User:OhFFS|OhFFS]] ([[User talk:OhFFS|talk]]) 18:07, 18 September 2019 (UTC)
: Hmm, that could be true too. Feel free to modify the explanation to add that. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.11|172.69.33.11]] 18:18, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

Are NASA engineers here splitting their time between working for both NASA and the KSP team (as suggested by the current explanation, as in ''actual'' 'moonlighting') or is it just that they're the kind of people who may 'catch' 24-hour flu to cover up their over-use of personal time to just enjoy the release as per all the other potentially fanatical but somewhat more armchair-expert individuals out there. I first understood the "Moon" people as being the actual KSP devs called in by NASA managemenr to persuade them to stagger their project away from NASA's (although I suppose it would have been more obviously that if it was a conference table setting, being faced over, rather than some typical office desk), with similar thoughts about the above cash payments comment (though I ''suppose'' it could be using petty-cash for site licensing or similar?)... Either way, I'm sure the "moonlighting" pun could be added into the explanation, if someone else would like to! ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 18:25, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

Talk:2204: Ksp 2

2019-09-18T18:25:41Z

162.158.158.183:

Can someone create a KSP category? I don't have the rights to do that. Comics for that category include this one, [[1356:_Orbital_Mechanics]], [[1350:_Lorenz]], [[1244: Six Words]], [[1106: ADD]]. There may be others as well. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.184|172.68.211.184]] 18:05, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

In the explanation, I took the "Unmarked Cash Payments" to be payoffs to the KSP2 team to delay their launch. [[User:OhFFS|OhFFS]] ([[User talk:OhFFS|talk]]) 18:07, 18 September 2019 (UTC)
: Hmm, that could be true too. Feel free to modify the explanation to add that. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.11|172.69.33.11]] 18:18, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

Are NASA engineers here splitting their time between working for both NASA and the KSP team (as suggested by the current explanation, as in ''actual'' 'moonlighting') or is it just that they're the kind of people who may 'catch' 24-hour flu to cover up their over-use of personal time to just enjoy the release as per other just as all the other potentially fanatical but somewhat more armchair-experts out there. I first understood the "Moon" people as being the actual KSP devs called in by NASA managemenr to persuade them to stagger their project away from NASA's (although I suppose it would have been more obviously that if it was a conference table setting, being faced over, rather than some typical office desk), with similar thoughts about the above cash payments comment (though I ''suppose'' it could be using petty-cash for site licensing or similar?)... Either way, I'm sure the "moonlighting" pun could be added into the explanation, if someone else would like to! ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 18:25, 18 September 2019 (UTC)

Talk:2191: Conference Question

2019-08-19T09:12:07Z

162.158.158.183: Word of Power

I don't know to what "Word of Power" in the title text refers. A quick Google revealed something from Skyrim and something from D&D, but I have the feeling there must surely be a more original source for it, even if it is just a common term in folklore or something. [[User:Pureawes0me|Pureawes0me]] ([[User talk:Pureawes0me|talk]]) 07:45, 19 August 2019 (UTC)

: I think it means "magic word". The next step, "Unforgivable Curse", is from Harry Potter; a magic spell against someone that will get you jail time. (C. S. Lewis had an apocalyptic option, the "Deplorable Word".) So Harry Potter's schoolteacher demonstrates the Unforgivables on spiders... and on students. (You find out why.) Also I think the title text is the platform speaker's response to Beret Guy. rja.carnegie@gmail.com [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.183|162.158.158.183]] 09:12, 19 August 2019 (UTC)