explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2001: Clickbait-Corrected p-Value

2018-06-02T07:20:00Z

162.158.255.46: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2001
| date = June 1, 2018
| title = Clickbait-Corrected p-Value
| image = clickbait_corrected_p_value.png
| titletext = When comparing hypotheses with Bayesian methods, the similar 'clickbayes factor' can account for some harder-to-quantify priors.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Click here to learn more about the influence of Clickbait... But please first explain p-value. Most people don't know. And more wiki links.}}
This is yet another comic dealing with [[:Category:Clickbait|Clickbait]], and is satire mocking researchers/journalists/publishers for fudging research data based on what brings in the most advertising revenue.

This comic references ''hypothesis testing'' in statistics. Hypothesis testing is a standard method to determine whether a particular hypothesis is supported by the data. Such tests compare sets of data to determine whether they are likely to be correlated. In the examples given in the comic, a researcher might compare data on athletic performance with data on chocolate consumption by those athletes to determine whether he two trend together. By convention, the "null hypothesis" (designated H0) is that there's no correlation (that chocolate isn't correlated with athletic performance, in this case) and the "alternate hypothesis" (Ha) is that they are correlated. (If the study consists of ''feeding'' chocolate to one of two identical groups and not the other, rather than tracking what they'd be eating anyway, then the alternative hypothesis can be strengthened to be that chocolate *causes* improved performance.) These sets are subjected to statistical tests which return a "p-value" which is often misinterpreted as the probability that the null hypothesis is correct. Hence, if the p-value is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected, and we conclude that the alternate hypothesis is supported by the data.

Actually, the p-value is the probability that one would get the results obtained, or any more extreme value, given that the null hypothesis is true. The misinterpretation of p-values as the probability that the null hypothesis is correct is a huge problem that lies at the source of a lot of confusion in the statistical interpretation of data.

In this version, the p-value is corrected by a factor which increases when readers click a headline stating that H1 is true, and decreases when people click a headline stating that H0 is true. This has the effect of ''increasing'' the p-value if readers favor H1 over H0, leading to a greater chance of ''H0'' being accepted. This seems to operate under the assumption that whatever clickers of clickbait believe, the reverse is likely to be true.

As the statistical results now depend on people's beliefs about the hypothesis, this is as far from actual science as one can get. However, in a way, it is more in tune with a quote by Arbuthnot (one of the originators of the use of p-values) attributing variation to active thought rather than chance, "From whence it follows, that it is Art, not Chance, that governs." Randall applying that quote to the thoughts of the masses, bringing it in line with "Art".

Clickbait is the practice of using deceptive or manipulative headlines to entice readers to click on a dubious news story, often with the purpose of generating ad revenue.

The comic does not present a correct example of null and alternative hypotheses. As the alternative hypothesis (H1) predicts that chocolate will '''improve performance''' (i.e., a one-tailed, directional hypothesis) the null hypothesis (H0) should predict that chocolate will '''do nothing''' or '''make performance worse'''. If, on the other hand, the alternative hypothesis (H1) was that chocolate would '''change performance''' (for better or worse; i.e., a two-tailed hypothesis) then the null hypothes (H0) would be that chocolate would simply '''do nothing'''. In other words, the alternative hypothesis should be true if and only if the null hypothesis is false.

==Transcript==
:[Under a heading that says Clickbait-Corrected p-Value there is a mathematic formula. Below that is the description of the two used variables and what they mean:]
:Clickbait-corrected p-value:

:PCL = Ptraditional ∙ click(H1)/click(H0)

:H0: NULL hypothesis ("Chocolate has no effect on athletic performance")
:H1: Alternative hypothesis ("Chocolate boosts athletic performance")
:click(H): Fraction of test subjects who click on a headline announcing that H is true

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Clickbait]]
[[Category:Statistics]]

1622: Henge

2015-12-29T17:46:52Z

162.158.255.46: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1622
| date = December 28, 2015
| title = Henge
| image = henge.png
| titletext = I've got the Craigslist post ready to go! I wasn't sure what category it should go in, so I listed it as property and put that it has 'good sun exposure.'
}}

{{incomplete| explanation is rambling}}

==Explanation==
The Manhattan thing is a reference to {{W|Manhattanhenge}}, the phenomenon that causes the setting sun to align with the east-west streets of the main grid of {{w|Manhattan}}, {{W|New York City|New York}}, causing a very special light display. This happens twice a year. Manhattanhenge is itself named after {{W|Stonehenge}}, an ancient monument with several big stones, where the heel stone, and the embanked avenue, are aligned to the sunset of the {{W|winter solstice}} and the opposing sunrise of the {{W|summer solstice}} (thus creating on purpose the effect seen today in Manhattan). Hence the title of the comic.

In this comic [[Ponytail]] tells [[Cueball]] that ''One day a year, the sun sets directly between these two trees.'' However Cueball realizes that the setting sun would line up with almost any two trees on any given day. This is due to the fact that any two trees that are close together with one further north would allow a setting sun to set between them, as the viewer of the sunset would simply need to move themselves to make the alignment work.

The twist comes when Ponytail and [[Megan]] actually attempt to capture the setting sun with a {{w|butterfly net}}, as it is revealed that the sun is actually setting at the point between the two trees rather than behind the trees when viewed from the east side. This is of course not possible in real life; but in the comic's last panel and in the title text the girls continue with their successful though surrealistic plan.

If this was indeed our {{w|Sun}} that they had somehow shrunk and cooled enough to captured with a butterfly net, transfer to a bag and bring it home, this would on {{xkcd}} terms be no more strange than many of the strange [[:Category:Strange powers of Beret Guy|powers]] of [[Beret Guy]]. If this would indeed happen, then since {{w|Earth}} and the rest of the {{w|solar system}} is now missing its central star there would be a ton of problems for everyone on Earth. So the girls would probably be able to get a lot of money in ransom for releasing the sun... But in the title text it turns out that they are just going to sell the Sun on-line.

Alternatively this is not ''The Sun'', but just a small sun-look alike, maybe a {{w|Ball lightning}} which might actually be able behave like this (but not be captured in a bag).

The title text refers to {{w|craigslist}}, a web site where the girls plans to offer the sun for sale in hopes of getting rich. Craigslist is a {{w|classified advertisements}} website with sections devoted to jobs, housing, personals, for sale, items wanted, etc. One of the girls tells that she was uncertain as to under which category she should list a "Sun for sale". But she put it under property (as in real estate). To advertise the "property" she put "''that it has 'good sun exposure''", a common description of real estate. Being the sun itself, and having lasted already 5 billion years under its own intense radiation, you could phrase it like it has lasted well under sun exposure. On the other hand you could claim that it has never really been exposed to any external sun radiation, as the star light hitting the sun from other suns (stars) is very limited, even over 5 billion years.

The title text is likely a reference to a woman who was stopped by eBay for selling plots of "land" on sun.

==Transcript==
:[Ponytail and Cueball are walking towards two the trees from the left (Cueball has just passed the first tree) and Megan is walking towards them fro the right. Ponytail spreads her arms while talking.]
:Ponytail: One day a year, the sun sets directly between these two trees.
:Cueball: Oh, cool - like the Manhattan thing.

:[Cueball stands alone in a beat panel without a frame.]

:[Shining light appears at the top of the frame (below Cueball's text). Cueball is lifting his hand, looking at the girls in front of him while Ponytail walks straight under the light looking up and Megan standing to the right looks up and points at the light.]
:Cueball: Wait, isn't that true every day for pretty much any two trees?
:Megan: Shh, here it comes!

:[Cueball lifts both arms up and look on as Ponytail bending back suddenly holds a butterfly net up towards the "setting" sun that approaches the net while Megan is holding a bag open. Both are looking at the sun.]
:Cueball: Wait, what?
:Ponytail: OK, got the bag?
:Megan: Yup, grab it!
:Ponytail: We're gonna be ''rich!''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]

Talk:1622: Henge

2015-12-29T17:30:21Z

162.158.255.46:

This "catch the sun in the butterfly net" subplot reminds me of novel by Polish author Kornel Makuszyński (and a children's films based on it) "{{w|The Two Who Stole the Moon}}" --[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 08:43, 28 December 2015 (UTC)

I had to laugh at this part of the explanation, and then remove it: "(In reality, the fact that the net is not melting or burning proves that the sun is nowhere near the net.)" Because in this comic they obviously catch the sun ion a net, as they later (after the catch) has put it on sale on Craiglist as per the title text. But the reason I laughed was that the only problem the writer of this sentence saw was that the sun would be too hot. What about it's size and gravity, if we are talking about the real sun... So yes if it where the real sun it would be a long way away to look this small (150 million km as usual, 8 light minutes). But in this comic it is between the trees and it is very small and cool. Only strange thing is that [[Beret Guy]] is not involved as his [[:Category:Strange powers of Beret Guy|powers]] would explain this comic. But then again he would never do it for profit. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:23, 28 December 2015 (UTC)
:I disagree, there's no indication that this scheme actually worked. The Craigslist posting could just as easily have been written in advance, and the Title text could be the next line spoken, before the capture either succeeds or fails. [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 16:48, 28 December 2015 (UTC)

The "sun exposure" explanation is wrong. It's not about how it holds up under sunlight, it's about how much sunlight it gets. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.235.101|198.41.235.101]] 17:21, 28 December 2015 (UTC)

The phrase "any given day" suggests that the two hypothetical trees will align with the sun on any day of the year arbitrarily chosen. A better way to say it would be "...Cueball realizes that the setting sun would line up with almost any two trees on at least one day of the year." (Anonymous user Ben) [[Special:Contributions/108.162.214.239|108.162.214.239]] 16:43, 29 December 2015 (UTC)
:If the observer is able to move freely, he can always position himself in such a way that the sun will set between the two trees on any give day. The only exception will be if the two trees and the sunset are aligned, i.e. the trees obscure the sun. [[User:Sysin|Sysin]] ([[User talk:Sysin|talk]]) 17:24, 29 December 2015 (UTC)

The line about "getting rich" got me thinking.... Only 5E-10 of the sun is gold [http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=224308] but the sun's mass is approx 2E30kg [http://www.google.com/webhp?q=mass%20of%20sun], so that's 1E21 kg of gold (about US $35 septillion at today's prices), and that's just one element, there are all sorts of precious metals in the sun's core... [[User:Sysin|Sysin]] ([[User talk:Sysin|talk]]) 17:19, 29 December 2015 (UTC)

The selling of Sun on craigslist is possibly a refernce to the woman who was selling land on the sun on ebay -- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3112111/What-blazes-Spanish-woman-selling-plots-land-sun-1-sues-eBay-breach-contract-auction-site-closes-down.html [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 17:30, 29 December 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-24T15:48:15Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {{w|Human_skeleton}} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: No it does not match -- the colors would be red-black-yellow-'''blue''' (not green) -- the blue is for water [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Humorism.svg/1022px-Humorism.svg.png like in this diagram] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 14:55, 24 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The red-black-yellow-green matches the Rastafarian colors [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 15:43, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: I get the feeling that even if people can survive at low oxygen levels at a decent level for a time, it's not going to be either healthy or prolonged. -Pennpenn [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.162|108.162.250.162]] 04:36, 23 December 2015 (UTC)
:: I think I found a major fault in the diagram -- The algo will loop indefinitely removing eyes with laser surgery as long as the pain-level is 10 -- since most people only have two eyes, the algo may seg-fault after the second eye is removed and the paitent may leave alive at that point [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 15:48, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::::No luck on getting infinite skin grafts, I'm afraid. Watson won't draw blood again, so you won't be able to keep failing the oxygen saturation test. Besides, keeping oxygen perpetually under 50% would be fatal in itself. Maybe that's the best way to go: blacking out from oxygen deprivation. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 23:13, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::Ah, so it ''did'' change. (SFAICT, usually when the comic changes between publication and the present, the changes are noted somewhere in the explanation. It seems the explanation has been made to match the current version but doesn't have any reference to the original.) IMO, also, the original was funnier for the 'bad AI' (i.e. either evil or just incompetent) quality to that section. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 09:52, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-24T15:43:35Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {{w|Human_skeleton}} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: No it does not match -- the colors would be red-black-yellow-'''blue''' (not green) -- the blue is for water [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Humorism.svg/1022px-Humorism.svg.png like in this diagram] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 14:55, 24 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The red-black-yellow-green matches the Rastafarian colors [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 15:43, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: I get the feeling that even if people can survive at low oxygen levels at a decent level for a time, it's not going to be either healthy or prolonged. -Pennpenn [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.162|108.162.250.162]] 04:36, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::::No luck on getting infinite skin grafts, I'm afraid. Watson won't draw blood again, so you won't be able to keep failing the oxygen saturation test. Besides, keeping oxygen perpetually under 50% would be fatal in itself. Maybe that's the best way to go: blacking out from oxygen deprivation. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 23:13, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::Ah, so it ''did'' change. (SFAICT, usually when the comic changes between publication and the present, the changes are noted somewhere in the explanation. It seems the explanation has been made to match the current version but doesn't have any reference to the original.) IMO, also, the original was funnier for the 'bad AI' (i.e. either evil or just incompetent) quality to that section. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 09:52, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-24T15:39:59Z

162.158.255.46:

{{comic
| number = 1619
| date = December 21, 2015
| title = Watson Medical Algorithm
| image = watson_medical_algorithm.png
| titletext = Due to a minor glitch, 'discharge patient' does not cause the algorithm to exit, but instead leads back to 'hunt down and capture patient'.
}}

==Republished comic==

This comic was updated and republished on the 22nd Dec -- [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/archive/1/15/20151222113107%21watson_medical_algorithm.png click here to see the original version]

The explanation matched the updated version.

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|much more on the different procedures etc.}}
IBM's {{w|Watson (computer)|Watson}} is a natural language system designed to answer questions posed by humans. Recently, IBM has extended Watson to act as a {{w|clinical decision support system}}, using image analytics to aid physicians in medical decision making. In this comic, Randall shows a {{w|flowchart}} representing a possible algorithm for Watson, including bizarre techniques including surgical alteration of a patient to match a height and weight chart and squeezing the patient to remove yellow fluids. Like [[416: Zealous Autoconfig]], this comic pokes fun at a rigid, poorly-designed setup that ends up potentially doing more harm than good.

Modern medicine involves both standard processes and clinical judgement based around years of advanced training. An algorithm like this would have to be incredibly complicated in order to simulate the clinical judgement of a good doctor.

The algorithm depicted treats a patient as more of a machine or mechanical system than a living being, especially through decisions such as:

*Injecting oxygen into patients with low oxygen saturation, rather than treating the root cause.
*Removing and inspecting a skeleton, then diagnosing the patient's condition with a bone count.
*Dissecting a doctor "for parts" after consulting him or her for advice.
*Removing extra limbs from a patient if the count is 100 or more (This might be a reference to different number systems used in computers, as 100 is read in binary as four.)
*Determining whether the "build environment" of the patient is sane. This is most probably a reference to the configure script used in the {{w|GNU_build_system|GNU build system}}, which emits "checking whether build environment is sane" as one of its status messages.
*Rinsing the whole patient with a saline solution.
*Removing organs from a patient regardless of response to an organ donation request.

Other decisions appear to be entirely unrelated to the conditions upon which they are predicated:

*If the patient doesn't rate their pain on a scale from 0-10, sequence their genome, apply a {{w|tourniquet}}, and perform an {{w|autopsy}}
*If the patient's phone's battery is low, defibrillate until the battery is charged, sync photos, then administer general anesthesia
*If the patient is successfully comforted after an oxygen injection, check their medical history and apply skin grafts
*If green fluid is released from the patient, begin to cauterize
*If the patient has less than 100 limbs, check their Vitamin D level

The title text implies that, if the patient is so lucky to ever reach one of the two places with the option "discharge patient," a minor glitch will cause to program to go back to the ''hunt down and capture patient'' option which thus force the patient and the program to repeat the process again in an infinite cycle, that will only end once the patient give another rating of their pain level than on the 0-10 scale. Then the program will start to sequence their genome then apply a tourniquet and finally perform an autopsy, on what will in the end for certain be a deceased patient, but maybe not when the autopsy began. This will finally cause the patient to leave the cycle as a corpse.

This is one of many comics with [[:Category:Flowcharts|flowcharts]], amongst other a recent comic with that very name: [[1488: Flowcharts]].

This is the second comic in a row about health issues with the last comic being [[1618: Cold Medicine]].

The computer's behavior in this comic can be compared to the healthcare robot named Baymax in the movie {{w|Big Hero 6 (film)}}.

The comic was updated after it was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs were swapped.

==Transcript and Discussion of Medical Appropriateness==
{{incomplete|The transcript exists to make the comic accessible to the blind and people who can't see the comic. This transcript is not faithful to the comic as it contains a lot of text that is not in the comic, and is most certainly not screen reader friendly.}}
{| border=1
| | Step
| | Medically valid?
| | Conditions and following step
|-
| |
Draw Blood
| |
Phlebotomy is a normal early step in the diagnostic process, but not as first and unconditional step
| |
Record patient’s name
|-
| |
Record patient’s name
| |
OK
| |
Measure Patient’s height and Weight
|-
| |
Measure Patient’s height and Weight
| |
OK
| |
Consult Standard height/weight chart
|-
| |
Consult Standard height/weight chart
| |
OK
| |
Surgically adjust patient to match
|-
| |
Surgically adjust patient to match
| |
May be considered ethically dubious unless there are [http://www.gosh.nhs.uk/medical-information/procedures-and-treatments/limb-length-difference-and-limb-lengthening sound medical reasons] for doing so. Could be an allusion to {{w|Procrustes}}.
| |
Is patient coughing up blood?
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Is patient coughing up blood?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
OK, coughing up blood is generally a sign that there is something wrong. Typical causes are respiratory tract infections (e.g. tuberculosis), lung trauma or pulmonary embolism.
| |
Yes: Gather blood and return it to body
|-
| |
No: Is patient still here?
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Is patient still here?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Not usually considered a step, but missing patients are a problem in some fields, psychiatry or intensive care for example.
| |
Yes: Record pulse rate
|-
| |
No: Hunt down and capture patient
|-
| |
Hunt down and capture patient
| |
Valid if patient should not have left the bed/unit, but the wording is possibly dubious.
| |
Is patient still here?
|-
| |
Gather blood and return it to body
| |
Dangerous idea in this case due to likelihood of contamination, although if safely done autotransfusion is an accepted medical technique to ensure a matching blood supply prior to a major operation, or to enhance stamina (blood doping)
| |
Record pulse rate
|-
| |
Record pulse rate
| |
OK, but maybe a little late.
| |
Is patient screaming?
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Is patient screaming?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Very important question, indicating patient is conscious, in pain, and aware pain is bad. First attenders can use it in classifying priorities (quiet patients may be more severely injured). Generally useful in assessing nerve damage, pain relief, etc.
| |
Yes: Ignore
|-
| |
No: Check blood O2 saturation
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 ` |
Check blood O2 saturation
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Only really indicated if the patient is in danger of hypoxia. Generally normal people should have a SpO2 of 98-100%, but in chronic lung disease this can fall as low to 80%, and in premature babies a SpO2 of 90% is usually targeted to avoid problems with retinopathy. If the SpO2 were to fall as low as 50%, the patient would definitely be dead or unconscious.
| |
>50%: Remove and inspect skeleton
|-
| |
<50%: Inject oxygen
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Remove and inspect skeleton
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Fatal if patient is still alive when beginning. Also not a valid medical procedure in any way as it is impossible to remove most of the long bones of the body without destroying all surrounding tissue.
| |
Too many bones: Is fluid coming out of patient?
|-
| |
Too few bones: Request consult with human doctor
|-
| |
Request consult with human doctor
| |
Medically valid in the context of obtaining an opinion from a doctor in a different speciality who is better suited to treating the patient.
| |
Dissect doctor for parts
|-
| |
Dissect doctor for parts
| | This may be considered ethically dubious. Possible reference to the Doctor Who episode “{{w|The Girl in the Fireplace}}”
| |
Discharge patient
|-
| |
Discharge patient
| |
Acceptable, but patient would generally be dead by then.
| |
END STATE (before you read the title text)
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Is fluid coming out of patient
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Unintended fluid release is always a problem. How significant a problem depends on where the fluid came from and if it is supposed to be coming from there. Red generally is due to blood, yellow is due to pus/tissue fluid/lymph and green signifies bacterial infection or bile salts (biliverdin). Could also relate to normal fluids being lost (e.g. urine, saliva, sweat)
| |
No: Squeeze patient
|-
| |
Yes: What color?
|-
| |
Squeeze patient
| |
Could be in the medical context is in providing external ventilation (see iron lung) or other means of removing fluid (e.g. squeezing pus from a boil).
| |
Is fluid coming out of patient
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=4 |
What color?
| width="33%" rowspan=4 |
Never underestimate the number of different types of fluid the body can produce.
| |
Yellow: Squeeze Patient
|-
| |
Black: Activate Sprinklers
|-
| |
Red: Ask patient to rate pain level
|-
| |
Green: Cauterize
|-
| |
Activate sprinklers
| |
Not medically valid. Presumably a reference to how much cleaning up will be required by this stage.
| |
Subdue patient
|-
| |
Subdue patient
| |
Potentially very important if patient is behaving dangerously to themselves and others around them (due to mental health issues e.g. psychosis or drugs) and/or is moving too much to be given treatment.
| |
Apply cream
|-
| |
Apply cream
| |
Medically valid as a form of barrier dressing to improve wound healing.
| |
Ask patient to rate pain level
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=4 |
Ask patient to rate pain level
| width="33%" rowspan=4 |
Useful in the sense that it provides the doctor with the means to ensure that the patient is receiving adequate analgesia during conditions of chronic and acute pain.
| |
0-8: Massage scalp
|-
| |
9: Admit for observation
|-
| |
10: Laser eye removal
|-
| |
Other response: Sequence genome
|-
| |
Massage scalp
| |
This would belong more to the domain of palliative care and reflexology rather than being an accepted medical treatment.
| |
Patient is healthy
|-
| |
Patient is healthy
| |
A subjective assessment of the health patient is often helpful in ruling out certain diagnoses. For example, one is less likely to suspect cancer in a fit, healthy 30 year old than a thin, lethargic 50 year old.
| |
Admit for observation
|-
| |
Admit for observation
| |
Useful in the context of 'watchful waiting', in which the doctor may be unsure if the patient actually has a condition that they suspect that the patient has. By keeping the patient on the ward for a few days, the clinician can monitor the progression of symptoms and rapidly initiate adequate treatment if medically warranted.
| |
Ask patient to rate pain level
|-
| |
Laser eye removal
| |
This is not a standard medical procedure. This could be a pun on laser eye surgery where a laser is used to correct visual problems (e.g. short-sightedness), or laser hair and tattoo removal.
| |
Admit for observation
|-
| |
Sequence genome
| |
Useful in the association of extremely rare point mutations with an organic illness. See for instance the Genome 10K Project or the Cancer Genome Atlas. Or in diagnosing extremely rare mutations that are not picked up by most commercial DNA screening tests (e.g. kidney failure due to INF2 mutation).
| |
Apply tourniquet
|-
| |
Apply tourniquet
| |
Useful to stop acute bleeding from an injured extremity, but if it is drawn too tightly it can cause neuromuscular damage.
| |
Perform autopsy
|-
| |
Perform autopsy
| | The patient has died, and Watson is being ordered to determine the cause of death. Note that the only way to reach this state is from "apply tourniquet", implying the cause of death is strangulation via tourniquet.
| | END STATE (taking the title text into account, the only possible one)
|-
| |
Inject oxygen
| |
May be fatal as injecting gases directly to the blood vessels can cause a serious embolism if it blocks blood flow to the brain or coronary arteries. However, if the oxygen is injected slowly into the venous circulation, it may be survivable as the bubbles may simply collect in the lungs where the oxygen is then slowly reabsorbed into the blood.
| |
Comfort patient
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Comfort patient
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Psychological support to the patient and relatives is often useful after breaking news of a poor prognosis. It may also be useful in subduing the agitated or psychotic patient.
| |
Comforting successful: Review medical history
|-
| |
Comforting unsuccessful: Subdue patient
|-
| |
Review medical history
| |
Important early step, rather too late and conditional.
| |
Skin grafts
|-
| |
Skin grafts
| |
Only indicated if massive areas of the skin are damaged (typically due to burns)
| |
Count number of limbs
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Count number of limbs
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Not really relevant in medicine, but may be of use to know the reason behind any missing or extra limbs on seeing the patient though a through review of the medical history will render this point moot. Probably a little late to be noticing this now.
| |
Fewer than 100: Measure Vitamin D
|-
| |
100+: Remove extra limbs
|-
| |
Remove extra limbs
| |
Medically indicated in cases of polymelia either due to cosmetic purposes or because the extra limbs pose a direct threat to the health of the baby.
| |
Subdue patient
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Measure vitamin D
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Valid in diagnosis of bone related issues, for example if multiple or comminuted fractures were being counted as additional limbs/bones.
| |
Good: Check whether build environment is sane
|-
| |
Bad: Blood loss?
|-
| |
Check whether build environment is sane
| |
Could be technical reference to the installation of the algorithm in the robot, or could relate to the sanity of:
*The robot doctor
*The patient undergoing this procedure (before or after reaching this part of the process)
*The person who programmed the robot to perform this flowchart
*The person who allowed this state of affairs to occur (I'm looking at you [[Black Hat]])

This could also be a reference to the title text for [[371: Compiler Complaint]].

NB: Whether the build environment is sane is irrelevant to the flowchart.
| |
Rinse patient with saline solution
|-
| |
Rinse patient with saline solution
| |
Tepid sponging may be indicated if the patient has a high fever. Could also refer to internally rinsing patient with saline solution i.e. providing intravenous sodium chloride to boost circulating volume or to perform peritoneal dialysis.
| |
Is patient phone battery low?
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Is patient phone battery low?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Invalid in medical terminology, could be a technological metaphor for the patient's consciousness or stamina. "Your life-force is running out"
| |
Yes: Defibrillate
|-
| |
No: Sync photos from camera
|-
| |
Defibrillate
| |
Indicated in cases where there is ventricular fibrillation, and to a lesser extent in atrial fibrillation (chemical cardioversion with adenosine is usually preferred)
| |
Is patient phone battery low?
|-
| |
Sync photos from camera
| |
Definitely invalid. Could refer to the robot attempting to backup photos from a camera before attempting to repair it/attempting to back-up patient's consciousness.
| |
Administer general anesthesia
|-
| |
Administer general anesthesia
| |
Valid, but not at this stage. Only used when the procedure will invoke unnecessary distress or pain to the patient if they were to be awake beforehand.
| |
Discharge patient
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Blood loss?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Useful. Patient may die if this clinical sign is missed.
| |
Minor: Patient address changed?
|-
| |
Substantial: Apply cream
|-
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Patient address changed?
| width="33%" rowspan=2 |
Useful to ensure that the organisation has current contact details for the patient in the event that they may need to contact the patient (e.g. to arrange further appointments)
| |
Yes: Request organ donation
|-
| |
No: Patient is healthy
|-
| |
Request organ donation
| |
Generally done prior to registering an individual for a driving licence or to a medical practice, or to the relatives of the deceased if consent had not been acquired beforehand.
|Remove organs
|-
| |
Remove organs
| |
The only organs which can be safely removed from a living person without resulting in serious, chronic medical issues are the kidneys/lungs (only one can be removed), spleen, part of the liver (as long as one lobe is left it can regrow to its original size) and colon (usually consisting of the appendix only). With some serious lifestyle modifications, the pancreas, pituitary gland, frontal lobe of brain, half of the brain, adrenal glands, bladder and most of the gut can be removed. The heart can be removed from the body and replaced with an artificial pump for a few months at the most. However, such organ removals are only indicated if there is a genuine clinical need to do so due to the non-negligible risk of death associated with these operations.
| Discharge patient
|-
| |
Discharge patient
| |
Appropriate, if the patient is no longer suffering from any conditions requiring in-hospital care
| |
END STATE (before you read the title text)
|}

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Artificial Intelligence]]
[[Category:Flowcharts]]
[[Category:Computers]]

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-24T14:55:05Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {{w|Human_skeleton}} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: No it does not match -- the colors would be red-black-yellow-'''blue''' (not green) -- the blue is for water [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Humorism.svg/1022px-Humorism.svg.png like in this diagram] --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 14:55, 24 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: I get the feeling that even if people can survive at low oxygen levels at a decent level for a time, it's not going to be either healthy or prolonged. -Pennpenn [[Special:Contributions/108.162.250.162|108.162.250.162]] 04:36, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::::No luck on getting infinite skin grafts, I'm afraid. Watson won't draw blood again, so you won't be able to keep failing the oxygen saturation test. Besides, keeping oxygen perpetually under 50% would be fatal in itself. Maybe that's the best way to go: blacking out from oxygen deprivation. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 23:13, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::Ah, so it ''did'' change. (SFAICT, usually when the comic changes between publication and the present, the changes are noted somewhere in the explanation. It seems the explanation has been made to match the current version but doesn't have any reference to the original.) IMO, also, the original was funnier for the 'bad AI' (i.e. either evil or just incompetent) quality to that section. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 09:52, 23 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-22T22:33:28Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {{w|Human_skeleton}} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-22T22:32:54Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {{Human_skeleton}} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1619: Watson Medical Algorithm

2015-12-22T22:32:15Z

162.158.255.46:

Build environment is still insane since comic #371. {{unsigned ip|162.158.2.139}}

(Above poster please sign comments with four tildes)

I'm trying to picture Baymax using this algorithm. {{unsigned|International Space Station}}

:"OK, who swapped out Baymax's programming card with a Doomba AI?" [[User:VectorLightning|VectorLightning]] ([[User talk:VectorLightning|talk]]) 08:02, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least the autoconfig isn't as threatening as #416.
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.179|108.162.245.179]] 07:00, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I suspect that the extra limbs should be removed when there are 100+ and Vitamin D levels checked when the nmbr of limbs is in an acceptable range... does IBM use a ticketing system? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.194|162.158.91.194]] 08:39, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Unfortunately the algorithm as shown in the cartoon has the conditions for those two steps exactly the other way around, making even less sense medically. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:30, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

It seems a normal patient would end up mostly unscathed and in an infinite loop in the lower right corner. [[User:Benjaminikuta|Benjaminikuta]] ([[User talk:Benjaminikuta|talk]]) 09:01, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Uhm no. You would normally have an oxygen level above 50% of what is expected. (It should be close to 100% if I understand [http://www.nonin.com/Normal-Oxygen-Level this correctly], which I may not...). This means you have had your skeleton removed. If you survived this you are squeezed until fluid comes out. (Probably not necessary after the skelerectomy). But then you end up in the lower right corner. Of course you can also get there after just getting an oxygen injection, but only directly if you are not comforted when the program tries. If you where comforted you will lose some limbs. And then end up in the lower right corner. No matter what if you are still OK (could be possible) when reaching here, you will be asked about your pain level. And even if you start by saying 0-8 many many times, getting as many scalp massages, you will just get the same question, until you say 10 then your eyes will be removed. But no matter what, if you are asked such a stupid question enough times you will surely at some point say something else than 0-10, and then you will die, as this answer will take you down the last path of the program (and only exit of the cycle according the to glitch mentioned in the title text), and this will end up with the program performing an autopsy on you, thus cutting you up and removing all organs etc. So no you will not be able to go unscathed infinitely, and even if you kept saying 0-8 you would eventually die from thirst. ;) --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 09:24, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::Yes, normal oxygen saturation is 98-100% in air. If it drops below 95% you will be in trouble, if it drops below 85% you're likely dead. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 09:54, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
::: Actually you can go a lot lower than 85% and still recover. You lose consciousness at about 55% on average, so you could dip below 50% for maybe a minute and still recover with appropriate treatment. It is unclear exactly what "inject oxygen" means, it could mean intubate and actively ventilate with oxygen (appropriate) or it might mean use a syringe & needle to literally inject an oxygen embolus (which would do more harm than good). It could even mean a blood transfusion, because there is oxygen carried by the red blood cells (appropriate). [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:28, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This might also partially be a reference to machine learning, which Watson apparently uses: badly designed ML systems often build models which produce the expected results for the training data, but do something unexpected or wrong with real data. See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting#Machine_learning]. That said ... 'dissect doctor for parts' doesn't seem like a reasonable response to any training input ;) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.39.208|162.158.39.208]] 10:41, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The noted "unrelated actions" aren't all entirely unrelated. The coughing blood one is interpreting backwards (so "is patient not coughing up blood because the patient is not here to do so?"), the vitamin D one is somewhat logical (vit D is part of the chain that converts calcium to bone, low vit D can cause bone loss, but high vit D is basically harmless), and the green fluid is slightly sane but too vague (logic appears to be that green fluid indicates severely infected and/or necrotic tissue, for which cauterizing might be a valid treatment step in extreme situations). Weirdly specific might be a better header? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.197|141.101.106.197]] 11:57, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

So what happens if the skeleton has exactly the right number of bones? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.153.71|162.158.153.71]] 12:32, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: Indeed this case is not covered, thus making the algorithm faulty even on an abstract logical level. --[[User:Svenman|Svenman]] ([[User talk:Svenman|talk]]) 14:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
: What is the "right" number anyway? The number of bones in a normal human is not constant: it changes from 270 at birth to 206 as an adult. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:35, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: {Human_skeleton} : "It is composed of 270 bones at birth – this total decreases to 206 bones by adulthood after some bones have fused together" [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.46|162.158.255.46]] 22:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

the Request organ donation/Remove organs part reminds me of Live Organ Transplants segment in ''{{w|Monty Python's The Meaning of Life}}''. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 12:53, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

100 could be a reference to 4 in binary (4+ limbs / less than 4 limbs) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.39|141.101.99.39]] 12:59, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:I believe you're correct. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:: The binary explanation does make more sense than a human centipede. Although, given the general grossness of the comic, I'm not going to completely rule out the human centipede idea. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:40, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think GlaDOS is a descendent from this Watson. [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:17, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

The part about squeezing and looking for the color of the ooze seems to reference Humorism. The colors match the four humors. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.188|162.158.91.188]] 15:31, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I'm surprised he didn't make a Dr Watson joke/reference.--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 17:33, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

This algorithm certainly does not exit without the death of the patient, however, such a death can result from old age as long as the patient can make it to the bottom right infinite loop and continuously reports a number from 0-9 for pain. It IS possible to make it to that loop alive. Extremely low blood oxygen levels have been recorded in healthy Everest climbers, but the article I read gave the results in kilopascals, not in % so I don't know how that converts. However, repeatedly reporting a pain level of 0-8 would result in continuous scalp massages, which may actually be considered pleasant. [[User:Kashim|Kashim]] ([[User talk:Kashim|talk]]) 20:11, 21 December 2015 (UTC)

I think this may be the least undesirable path through the flowchart:
START > Draw blood (enough to lower oxygen saturation to 49%) > Record name > Measure height and weight > Measured height/weight happens to match standard chart exactly > No surgery needed > Not coughing up blood > Still here > Record pulse rate > No screaming (unconscious due to low O2 saturation) > O2 saturation below 50% > Inject oxygen > Comforting succesful > Review medical history > Skin grafts > Fewer than 100 limbs > Good vitamin D > Check build environment > Rinse with saline > Phone battery level is high > Sync photos > General anesthesia > Discharge [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 22:51, 21 December 2015 (UTC)
:Nope, that path doesn't work. First, injecting oxygen may do more harm than good, as previously mentioned. Second, you'll be unconscious, so comforting will be unsuccessful. Third, having fewer than 100 limbs actually leads to the path where some are removed (possibly an error in the chart?). Fourth, due to the bug, discharge leads to hunting you down and capturing you again. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 01:32, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::First, it may or it may not... I'm hoping not! (see above for discussion of possible ways to "inject" oxygen) Second, I'll be conscious again because my oxygen saturation has now been restored, so comforting is possible. Third, please look at the updated version of the flowchart, fewer than 100 leads to measuring Vitamin D. Fourth, there is no pathway shown from discharge to hunting down and capturing: I assume that START is admission to the hospital, therefore once discharged from hospital I have escaped Watson's clutches. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:04, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:::Yes, Randall fixed the bone count decision, but perhaps you missed the 'minor glitch' described in the mouseover text... [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:50, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
::::Dammit. Yes I missed that. I have doomed myself to infinite skin grafts. The glitch means the only end point is autopsy. Which is less undesirable, infinite skin grafts or autopsy? [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:22, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

ALERT!!! The comic has been updated since this explanation was first posted: the decisions for number of limbs have been swapped. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 04:14, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I wonder whether Randall took some inspiration from [http://buttersafe.com/2015/10/15/a-serious-case-of-spookiness/ Buttersafe]? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.161|108.162.249.161]] 04:48, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
: entirely possible, Randall does list Buttersafe as a web comic he enjoys. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:17, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Man I liked the original limb count decision better.... [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 04:59, 22 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yes, there was a delicious craziness about it. [[User:Martin|Martin]] ([[User talk:Martin|talk]]) 05:12, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

Another infinite loop is in the upper right; if the patient's phone battery is low, defibrillate, then check phone battery condition again. Since defibrillating the patient is not going to improve teh patient's phone battery charge level, this will repeat infinitely, unless the battery is being charged by some external force (or, perhaps, by the electric charge from the defibrillator?) [[User:Swordsmith|Swordsmith]] ([[User talk:Swordsmith|talk]]) 12:18, 22 December 2015 (UTC)

I can't help feeling some of the information on this page are meant as jokes, like "disect the doctor for parts" being "may be considered ethically dubious". Is there someone who can clarify these? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.72.191|162.158.72.191]] 19:49, 22 December 2015 (UTC)