explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2323: Modeling Study

2020-06-23T20:38:07Z

162.158.92.44:

Also known as

''I still have no clue about my subject, partly because I devised this study when I knew even less, but I need to write a paper anyway or I can never finish my PhD programme ...''

vs.

''I have now fiddled four years with my model assumptions to get the data to fit without, well, fiddling with the data, so please bear with me and my paper, and for heavens sake graduate me so I can save what is left of my soul and sanity ... '' ;-) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.94.94|162.158.94.94]] 20:23, 22 June 2020 (UTC)
: One of my friends who studied thermal engineering remarked that if his model agreed with the test data to within ten degrees, it was acceptable, but if it agreed to less than five degrees, he was suspicious, because it was probably over-fit to the peculiarities of his thermal chamber, thermocouple placement, and so on, and less applicable for the system's real operational environment. --[[User:NotaBene|NotaBene]] ([[User talk:NotaBene|talk]]) 23:40, 22 June 2020 (UTC)
::We got trolled by our physics teacher in high school, during a calorimetry experiment (where you measure the changes in temperature of a system). All our measurements were way off from theoretical results, so we "adjusted" the reported values to make them fit the expected curve. Unfortunately, the prof knew that the thermometers were too inaccurate to produce precise results, so it was more of a test of our honesty, which we all failed miserably :-/[[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.167|162.158.158.167]] 13:19, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:I once proof read a master thesis, where an experimental setting to optimize a problem in certain network arrangements was set up (basically a laboratory with 15 desktop PCs, communicating with each other on a specific protocol, etc.). The guy who wrote it found out on the first afternoon after setting it up, that the professor who found and described the problem he was about to tackle made a mistake, and the problem didn't exist. By that time he had already - due to university standards - handed in the name of his thesis. While negative results in research are also good results, the problem is, that by the same standards of his university his master thesis had to be a certain size - if I remember correctly, at least 50 pages in small font, excluding data and images - he managed to stretch his afternoons work and some subsequential tests on it to the required number of pages though. I am sure there is a lesson to be learned here, but... I haven't figured it out yet. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:37, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
::well, I gues the most important lesson would be "minimum length of text" is not a good requirement for any academic work. ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 06:50, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

Various "<Problem> Denier" groups, (Climate Change, Covid, other things not ''necessarily'' starting with "C") do tend to lose their shit over "models" that aren't right (whether 1% out or 50%, they'll take any 'error', or just the failure to model what happened later ''because'' the model was heeded and behaviours changed to avoid the outcome) ironically using their clutched-at-straws to model all ''future'' models as wrong/intentionally-misleading-for-nefarious-intent. They also misunderstand the models (witness them dragging out old "85% chance Hillary will win" predictions against the roughly(-and-slightly-more-than) 50% of the votes she got - a different measure and far from incompatible with the other), whether innocently or deliberately, to 'prove' their point. And that's just done by regular Joes/Josephines. I'm sure you can be far more competently incompetent in your modelling (i.e. sneak sneaky shit past more and more learned people) if you're an actual modeller yourself who feels the need to drive towards an end for which you then look for the means. (Or modes, or medians.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.168|162.158.155.168]] 11:58, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:I'm nearly 18 hours late reading this comic, but the above is exactly why I'm so surprised to see it. Given Randall's apparent faith in mathematical modeling from other comics that this should be linked to (including the infamous vertical hockey stick temperature graph stretching back several millennia, and all the pro-Hillary bandwagon comics) I found this comic shocking in the extreme- he clearly knows the limitation of the method, and yet is still a true believer. Either that or he's finally growing up on the "A man who is not a liberal when he is young has no heart, a man who is not a conservative when he is old has no brains" spectrum. [[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:27, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

:Well, whoever makes statements like the one paraphrased above from the 2016 US election, or merely one like "there is a 75% chance of rain tomorrow", is a moronic pseudoscientist, and ought to be flogged, tarred, feathered, and sentenced to clean out public toilets 8h/d for two months, in that order. Such "measures" (of course they aren´t, they are merely a statement about how firmly one believes in his model extrapolating past measurement results into the future) have only one advantage for the "statistican" and newspapers, they can never be proved wrong. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.44|162.158.92.44]] 20:38, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

[https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-06-23 Dilbert makes the same point the next morning in a slightly different way]--[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:30, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

1360: Old Files

2015-09-10T17:07:39Z

162.158.92.44: /* Explanation */ Now it's 4TB

{{comic
| number = 1360
| date = April 25, 2014
| title = Old Files
| image = old_files.png
| titletext = Wow, ANIMORPHS-NOVEL.RTF? Just gonna, uh, go through and delete that from all my archives real quick.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic came out the day after [http://news.sky.com/story/1248397/andy-warhol-originals-found-on-floppy-disk Sky News published the story] of original {{w|Andy Warhol}} artwork, created in 1985 on an {{w|Amiga 1000}}, which was recovered from recently found floppy disks.

[[Cueball]] is shown literally digging through a pile of old files; which is a metaphor for looking through old files on his computer. The layers of the pile are arranged much like geological rock formations where older strata are deeper down than younger layers. The files are in concentric layers because each directory is imbedded in the previous directory. Therefore, the "Documents" folder contains an "Old Desktop" folder, which contains a folder with files recovered from an older system, which itself contains a "My Documents" folder, which contains a folder with files copied from a {{w|Zip Disk}} from high school. The result is that files from high school have survived in his present-day machine. These older folders serve as a time capsule of sorts, storing old files from {{w|AOL}}, NYET, and {{w|Kazaa}}. These files are meant to be analogous to the fossils and artifacts found in lower, older rock layers.

The sizes of the files decrease as Cueball goes deeper, since data storage has gotten cheaper over time. When the Zip Drive first came out, it cost $200 USD (plus $20 per 100 MB floppy). Today, $200 could buy you a 4 TB portable external hard drive. In the 1990s, during AOL's heyday, 10+ GB hard drives were prohibitively expensive and a terabyte of data was unimaginable to most users.

Deep down, Cueball discovers several files he is surprised about, including a poetry file which embarrasses him as he does not remember writing poetry. In the title text, he mentions also finding an "{{w|Animorphs}} Novel", which may be a text copy of one of the original books, but judging by his reaction it may more likely be a fan fiction of the ''Animorphs'' series. The series was released between 1996 and 2001, consistent with the fact that these files were created during Cueball/Randall's high school years. The series was extremely popular at the time. See also [[1380: Manual for Civilization]] for other references to Animorphs.

===Files and Folders===
The folders and files in detail:

'''Documents''' (47 GB): A large folder containing many of [[Cueball]]'s personal files.
*''misc.txt'': A miscellaneous {{w|text file}} of unknown and unknowable content. It appears unreasonably large for a txt file, so it may be a large {{w|encryption|encrypted}} volume with an intentionally misleading name. It is the only non-video file in the topmost layer - the implication is that Cueball encrypts all his current documents.
*''Video projects'': As video files can take up a lot of space, this likely makes up a considerable portion of the 47 GB.

'''Old desktop''' (12 GB): A backup from a former computer.
*''{{w|Facebook}} pics'': Pictures that were intended to be added to Facebook.
*''Pics from other camera'': Unknown pictures from a second camera.
*''Temp'': Temporary folders generally contain cached files and files that are used temporarily to install programs.
*''Misc {{w|Portable Document Format|PDF}}s'': PDFs are often used for documentation, but could be any collection of digitized books or other documents.
*''{{w|MP3}}'': MP3 is a widely-used format for digital audio files.

'''Recovered from drive crash''' (4 GB): When a {{w|Hard disk drive|hard drive}} crashes, some or all data may be recovered.
*''Temp'': Temporary files.
*''Work misc'': Unknown work related projects.
*''{{w|Audiobook|Audio books}}'': Recordings of books being read out loud.

'''My Documents''' (570 MB): {{w|Windows 95}} and later versions of Windows typically create a folder named "My Documents" for personal documents.
*''Downloads'': A default location for downloaded files in the Windows OS.
*''{{w|Kazaa}} shared'': Kazaa is a defunct peer-to-peer file sharing program. The "shared" folder is shared with other members.
*''AYB'': {{w|All your base are belong to us|ALL YOUR BASE are belong to us}} is an internet {{w|Meme|meme}} inspired by a bad translation from ''{{w|Zero Wing}}''. Also referenced in [[286: All Your Base]].
*''{{w|Escape Velocity Override|EV Override}}'': An {{w|Apple Macintosh}} video game, released in 1998.
*''[http://rephial.org/ Angband]'': A game named after a fictional stronghold created by {{w|J. R. R. Tolkien}}.
*''{{w|GIF}}s'': An image format widely used for transparent or animated images.
*''{{w|Fight Club}}.wmv'': A movie. As feature movies are typically compressed to 700 megabytes, and this folder only contains 570 MB, it must be of low quality or a small screen size. Also referenced in [[992: Fight Club]].
*''{{w|Elasto Mania}}'': A physics-simulation game that claims to show real physics.
*''{{w|AOL Instant Messenger|AIM}} Direct Connect files'': Files transferred via AOL Instant Messenger.
*''{{w|4chan}}'': An image-board where users can upload pictures anonymously. Randall impulsively saves pictures from there. This entry is something of an anomaly, the rest of the files at this level were most notable around 1998 to 2001 while 4chan was only launched at the end of 2003.
*''{{w|ICQ}} logs'': Logs from an instant messaging program introduced in 1996 and no longer commonly used in North America.

'''High school {{w|Zip drive|Zip disk}}''' (94 MB): The most popular form of {{w|superfloppy}}, introduced in 1994 with a capacity of 100 MB.
*''{{w|Korn}} MIDI'': Korn is an American {{w|nu metal}} band formed in 1993. {{w|MIDI}} is a protocol for communication with electronic musical instruments. The result tends to be sounds of low quality.
*''Photos3'': This is a folder of old photos.
**''{{w|Prom}}'': Pictures taken at prom.
*''lovenote.txt'': An old text file of a {{w|love letter}}, probably to a classmate in high school. Possibly referencing [[340: Fight]].
*''{{w|Gorillas (video game)|Gorillas}}.bas'': A game written in {{w|BASIC}}, to be run on {{w|QBasic}}, and supplied with MS-DOS.
*''Dream.txt'': Some private dreams.
*''James.txt'': Perhaps [[James]] is a friend of Randall, and the same as the one who came up with [[107|xkcd #107]].
*''{{w|AOL}}'': An early online and internet service, founded in 1985 and popular in the 1990s.
**''{{w|Citadel (software)|Citadel}}'' - A {{w|BBS}} and email platform that was widely used in the 1980s and early '90s.
*''{{w|QBasic}}'': An {{w|Integrated development environment|IDE}} released by {{w|Microsoft}} in 1991, which was used to write and run computer programs in the BASIC language.
*''NYET'': ''NYET'' was a {{w|Tetris}}-like game for MS-DOS, released in 1988.
*''Jokes.txt'': An old text file of jokes.

'''AAAFILES''' (9.4 MB): Some of [[Cueball]]'s oldest documents, likely prefixed with "AAA" to put the folder at the top of an alphabetically-sorted list.

'''TXT''' (850 K): Old text files, which include poetry he didn't remember writing.

==Transcript==
:Megan (on top of stack of files): You OK down there?

:'''Documents''' (47 GB)
::misc.txt
::Video projects
:'''Old desktop''' (12 GB)
::Facebook pics
::Pics from other camera
::Temp
::Misc PDFs
::MP3
:'''Recovered from drive crash''' (4 GB)
::Temp
::Work misc
::Audio books
:'''My Documents''' (570 MB)
::Downloads
::Kazaa shared
::AYB
::EV Override
::Angband
::GIFs
::FIGHT CLUB.wmv
::Elasto Mania
::AIM Direct Connect files
::4chan
::ICQ logs
:'''High school Zip disk''' (94 MB)
::Korn MIDI
::Photos3 (Prom)
::lovenote.txt
::Gorilla.bas
::Dream.txt
::James.txt
::AOL (Citadel)
::QBasic
::NYET
::Jokes.txt
:'''AAAFILES''' (9.4 MB)
:'''TXT''' (850 K)
:Cueball (deep inside the AAAFILES section looking at his txt files): Oh my god. I wrote '''poetry'''.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Animorphs]]
[[Category:Comics featuring James]]

1574: Trouble for Science

2015-09-07T12:53:19Z

162.158.92.44: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 1574
| date = September 7, 2015
| title = Trouble for Science
| image = trouble_for_science.png
| titletext = Careful mathematical analysis demonstrates small-scale irregularities in Gaussian distribution
}}

==Explanation==
Five newspaper headlines are shown:

;Many commercial antibody-based immunoassays are unreliable
This sentence is true. See Kebaneilwe Lebani, [http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:352531 Antibody Discovery for Development of a Serotyping Dengue Virus NS1 Capture Assay], 2014. In this PhD thesis, 11 references are given.

;Problems with the p-value as an indicator of significance
p-value is the probability that an event is observed just by chance. If p-value is under a treshold level (''α'', usually <5%, or <1% for being more conservative) one can assume that the event observed "exists".
The value used for ''α'' has been proposed by [http://web.lru.dk/sites/lru.dk/files/lru/docs/kap9/kapitel_9_126_On_the_origins.pdf Fisher] and is completely arbitrary.

;Overfeeding of laboratory rodents compromises animal models

;Replication study fails to reproduce many published results
A [https://explorable.com/replication-study Replication Study] is a study designed to replicate the results of a previous study by using the same methods for a different set of subjects and experimenters. It aims to recreate the results to gain confidence in the results of the previous study as well as ensuring that the findings of the previous study are transferable to other similar areas of study.

Randall is probably referring to this recent study: http://www.nature.com/news/over-half-of-psychology-studies-fail-reproducibility-test-1.18248

;Controlled trials show Bunsen burners make things colder
This is a joke. There is probably some methodological error if putting something under the Bunsen burner flame (which is between 1000K and 2000K) makes it colder. Unless of course that thing is already much hotter than the flame (more than 2000 degrees Kelvin).

Title text:

;Careful mathematical analysis demonstrates small-scale irregularities in Gaussian distribution

Then why do tanks of propane freeze?http://www.propane101.com/propaneregulatorfreezing.htm. Just need to sufficiently control the study.

==Transcript==
[A simple comic consisting of five newspaper headlines]

Many Commercial Antibody-Based Immunoassays Are Unreliable

Problems With the p-Value as an Indicator of Significance

Overfeeding of Laboratory Rodents Compromises Animal Models

Replication Study Fails to Reproduce Many Published Results

Controlled Trials Show Bunsen Burners Make Things Colder

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Biology]]
[[Category:Chemistry]]
[[Category:Math]]

Talk:1556: The Sky

2015-07-27T19:37:42Z

162.158.92.44:

Typical, I think nobody's actually going to try to explain this, and I get Save Conflicted. My (wordier) version. In case any of it is useful.
:The sky is ever changing, and can often give interesting views such as that illustrated in the comic. Cueball and Megan seem to be agreeing about this, and its pleasing nature.
:As (ignoring particularly unusual viewpoints, severe topography and obscuring vegetation/architecture) the sky is pretty much the upper hemisphere of any external view, it is inded a "half". It would seem to be redundant to say it is "one of my favourite halves", as that indicates both a list of at least two items to choose from ''and'' more than one 'favourite'. Being in 'the top two of a list of two' actually means nothing. But the other half could be the ground ''or'' the sea, ''or'' a composite of the two, so conceivably there ''might'' be more than two 'halves' to choose from in this case. Not that the statement makes much more sense.
:The title-text acknowledges the fact that the other half can have snakes (the land), shipwrecks (the sea) and rocks (either), in a manner that sounds like justifications for any non-sky 'halves' being interesting too, to the kind of people Cueball and Megan seem to be. But it also suggests that by removing all of these you'd be seeing sky, below, that people on the other side of the 'rocks' (the whole Earth) had been seeing as their own 'sky above'. At least until the effects of entirely removing the substance of the planet start to show, of course.
...for what it's worth. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.168|141.101.98.168]] 11:57, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Maybe, maybe the comic is a slight refference to the recent observetory of plutos athmosphere. [[User:ẞ qwertz|ẞ qwertz]] ([[User talk:ẞ qwertz|talk]]) 12:55, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Maybe this comic is related to comic [[1368]]? [[User:Gartenzaun|Gartenzaun]] ([[User talk:Gartenzaun|talk]]) 13:16, 27 July 2015 (UTC)
:Or this [[1524: Dimensions]]. Regarding the favourite of a small set.-[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 13:52, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

I can't defend this position properly (other than by appealing to shipwrecks) but I'm pretty sure "the other half" is the ocean (or water in general) and that this is a callback to something in early XKCD (the halves thing.) I don't care enough to find the reference though, so FFTI. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.88.224|141.101.88.224]] 13:18, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

My read on the "halves" bit is the Biblical Genesis bit where the world was split into sky and sea, "And God said, “Let there be a vault between the waters to separate water from water.” So God made the vault and separated the water under the vault from the water above it. And it was so. God called the vault “sky.” And there was evening, and there was morning—the second day." -[[Special:Contributions/173.245.56.112|173.245.56.112]] 14:36, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

: Agreed, this appears to be a biblical reference - [[https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+1&version=GNT| this version]] explains it pretty clearly. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.249.177|108.162.249.177]] 14:41, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

I can't tell if the sky is a photograph with a digital filter or a painting. [[User:Smperron|Smperron]] ([[User talk:Smperron|talk]]) 14:49, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

:I'm pretty sure it's a digital painting. For one thing, there's a little artistic license in the transition from sunset at the left to evening stars at the top right. [[User:FourViolas|FourViolas]] ([[User talk:FourViolas|talk]]) 14:58, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

:: I don't see it -- has the picture changed? [[User:Spongebog|Spongebog]] ([[User talk:Spongebog|talk]]) 16:31, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

::: I didn't notice the stars at the top right until [[User:FourViolas|FourViolas]] pointed it out. [[User:Smperron|Smperron]] ([[User talk:Smperron|talk]]) 16:37, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

I think it's important that Megan says the sky is ONE of her favorite halves, and that the explanation "at least at their present location...the ground is dark, flat, and otherwise boring" is thus too simplistic. The ground where they are standing is in silhouette (it's presumably sunrise or sunset), but I think the implication is that C. and M. (who are obviously not finding words adequate to express how they feel about what they're seeing), are awed by the beauty of Nature, regardless of whether it's sky, sea (shipwrecks), land (rocks) or living things (snakes).[[User:Jv|Jv]] ([[User talk:Jv|talk]]) 15:01, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Is it possible that the meaning of Megan's statement is that there are other binary sets where she prefers one over the other? For example, her favorites might include (in addition to sky) female, light, and loud. [[User:Smperron|Smperron]] ([[User talk:Smperron|talk]]) 16:43, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Perhaps Megan is a reporter https://xkcd.com/1368/ [[User:Xquestion|Xquestion]] ([[User talk:Xquestion|talk]]) 16:51, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

What i understand under "favorite halves" is not about the mentioned tautology but about other things you can differentiate two halves and you like one more than the other.
My personal favorite halves in this sense would be; Sky(vs Earth), women(vs men), low alcohol drinks(vs liquors), etc 17:11, 27 July 2015 (UTC)[[Special:Contributions/141.101.103.202|141.101.103.202]] Bkack

There are multiple ways to split the earth into halves, so I don't think having one favorite way makes any tautology. For example, you can split North/South, East/West, sky/earth, water/earth, day/night. [[User:DMiller|DMiller]] [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.150|173.245.50.150]] 18:28, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

I don't think it is a "tautology": a trivially true fact, eg "all red shoes are red". If anything it is an oxymoron (as it implies both halves are favourite, and so neither is). [[User:Zeimusu|Zeimusu]] ([[User talk:Zeimusu|talk]]) 18:58, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Am I the only one who sees a possible (additional) visual joke in the second panel? (The drawing is divided along the diagonal: One half is mainly cloudy, another mostly clear sky.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.44|162.158.92.44]] 19:37, 27 July 2015 (UTC)