2328: Space Basketball

2020-07-04T10:52:03Z

162.158.94.94: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2328
| date = July 3, 2020
| title = Space Basketball
| image = space_basketball.png
| titletext = My shooting will improve over the short term, but over the long term the universe will take more shots.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a METEORIC BASKETBALL. Should discuss expected time to make 30 shots in a row at 30% (and other percentages), and odds of meteorite impact, and NBA Jam and Space Jam. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic strip is another one of Randall's [[:Category:My Hobby|strange hobbies]] (released within the same week as his last hobby comic, [[2326: Five Word Jargon]]). Because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, or perhaps just due to his difficulties in making friends (cf. [[1917: How to Make Friends]]), Randall wishes to play basketball but has nobody to play with, and so he chooses to play against {{w|outer space}}. His goal is to make thirty baskets in a row before the universe puts a meteor through his hoop. (Technically, it would be a ''meteorite'', the term given to meteors that reach the surface, rather than breaking up in the atmosphere).

Randall estimates that his success rate at {{w|free throw|free-throw shooting}} is approximately 30%. Some of the world's best basketball players have free-throw percentages over 90%, and even professional players with reputations of being "poor" free-throw shooters (e.g. Shaquille O'Neal) are above 50%. Some specialists have achieved much higher success rates, with the record for most consecutive baskets being held by {{w|Tom Amberry}} with 2,750.

However, the chances of Cueball making 30 shots in a row is (0.3)^30, or about 1 in five quadrillion. The lifetime odds of being killed by a meteorite have been estimated at 1 in 75,000, 600,000 or 700,000 [https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-of-me-getting-killed-by-a-meteorite-in-the-next-one-hour]. These calculations are usually based on the probability of being alive at a time when a huge impact kills billions of people. Randall just uses the chance of one meteorite shot on earth hitting this hoop (hoop-area / earth-area = 4.411×10^-16) which is in the same range as (0.3)^30.

In the title text, Randall assumes that he would get better at free throwing shooting with practice in his lifetime ("the short term"). However he acknowledges that in "the long term" (the life of the universe, or at least the Earth), the Earth will be hit by very many meteorites.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball is standing in front of a basketball hoop, holding a basketball.]
:Cueball: Okay, here are the rules:
:Cueball: I have to make 30 shots in a row before a meteor falls through the hoop.
:Cueball: I'm a 30% free throw shooter so the odds are actually pretty even.
:Cueball: Ready...go!

:[Caption below panel:]
:My hobby: playing basketball against space

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:My Hobby]]
[[Category:Basketball]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]

Talk:2323: Modeling Study

2020-06-22T20:23:04Z

162.158.94.94:

Also known as

''I still have no clue about my subject, partly because I devised this study when I knew even less, but I need to write a paper anyway or I can never finish my PhD programme ...''

vs.

''I have now fiddled four years with my model assumptions to get the data to fit without, well, fiddling with the data, so please bear with me and my paper, and for heavens sake graduate me so I can save what is left of my soul and sanity ... '' ;-) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.94.94|162.158.94.94]] 20:23, 22 June 2020 (UTC)

explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2328: Space Basketball

Talk:2323: Modeling Study