explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2001: Clickbait-Corrected p-Value

2018-06-02T01:48:09Z

172.68.141.214: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2001
| date = June 1, 2018
| title = Clickbait-Corrected p-Value
| image = clickbait_corrected_p_value.png
| titletext = When comparing hypotheses with Bayesian methods, the similar 'clickbayes factor' can account for some harder-to-quantify priors.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Click here to learn more about the influence of Clickbait... But please first explain p-value. Most people don't know. And more wiki links.}}
This is yet another comic dealing with [[:Category:Clickbait|Clickbait]].

This comic references ''hypothesis testing'' in statistics. Hypothesis testing is a standard method to determine whether a particular hypothesis is supported by the data. Such tests compare sets of data to determine whether they are likely to be correlated. In the examples given in the comic, a researcher might compare data on athletic performance with data on chocolate consumption by those athletes to determine whether he two trend together. By convention, the "null hypothesis" (designated H0) is that there's no correlation (that chocolate doesn't improve athletic performance, in this case) and the "alternate hypothesis" (Ha) is that they are correlated (chocolate does improve athletic performance). These sets are subjected to statistical tests which return a "p-value" which is often misinterpreted as the probability that the null hypothesis is correct. Hence, if the p-value is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected, and we conclude that the alternate hypothesis is supported by the data.

Actually, the p-value is the probability that one would get the results obtained, or any more extreme value, given that the null hypothesis is true. The misinterpretation of p-values as the probability that the null hypothesis is correct is a huge problem that lies at the source of a lot of confusion in the statistical interpretation of data.

In this version, the p-value is corrected by a factor which increases when readers click a headline stating that H1 is true, and decreases when people click a headline stating that H0 is true. This has the effect of ''increasing'' the p-value if readers favor H1 over H0, leading to a greater chance of ''H0'' being accepted. This seems to operate under the assumption that whatever clickers of clickbait believe, the reverse is likely to be true.

As the statistical results now depend on people's beliefs about the hypothesis, this is as far from actual science as one can get. However, in a way, it is more in tune with a quote by Arbuthnot (one of the originators of the use of p-values) attributing variation to active thought rather than chance, "From whence it follows, that it is Art, not Chance, that governs." Randall applying that quote to the thoughts of the masses, bringing it in line with "Art".

Clickbait is the practice of using deceptive or manipulative headlines to entice readers to click on a dubious news story, often with the purpose of generating ad revenue.

The comic does not present a correct example of null and alternative hypotheses. As the alternative hypothesis (H1) predicts that chocolate will '''improve performance''' (i.e., a one-tailed, directional hypothesis) the null hypothesis (H0) should predict that chocolate will '''do nothing''' or '''make performance worse'''. If, on the other hand, the alternative hypothesis (H1) was that chocolate would '''change performance''' (for better or worse; i.e., a two-tailed hypothesis) then the null hypothesis (H0) would be that chocolate would simply '''do nothing'''.

==Transcript==
:[Under a heading that says Clickbait-Corrected p-Value there is a mathematic formula. Below that is the description of the two used variables and what they mean:]
:Clickbait-corrected p-value:

:PCL = Ptraditional ∙ click(H1)/click(H0)

:H0: NULL hypothesis ("Chocolate has no effect on athletic performance")
:H1: Alternative hypothesis ("Chocolate boosts athletic performance")
:click(H): Fraction of test subjects who click on a headline announcing that H is true

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Clickbait]]
[[Category:Statistics]]

Talk:1962: Generations

2018-03-02T21:05:09Z

172.68.141.214:

Table guy! Maybe this could be a table with "Year", "Generation Name", "References" and "Speculation". Or something. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.230.172|198.41.230.172]] 17:31, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

The highlighted generations are clearly the ones Pew Research named, but I can't figure out why Randall's numbers don't seem to match Pew's here: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/11/millennials-surpass-gen-xers-as-the-largest-generation-in-u-s-labor-force/ft_15-05-11_millennialsdefined/ [[User:TheAnvil|TheAnvil]] ([[User talk:TheAnvil|talk]]) 17:37, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

—••— means X in Morse code [[User:Inexorably advancing wall of ice|Inexorably advancing wall of ice]] ([[User talk:Inexorably advancing wall of ice|talk]]) 18:21, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

{{incomplete|Created by a MILLENIAL who has had enough of these weird incomplete tags}}
But seriously, it was funny the first time.[[Citation needed]] I'm sorry for the above incomplete tag in the comments,[[Citation needed] but it feels like most comics since maybe #1900 ([[1914: Twitter Verification]] comes to mind...) have this kind of thing for their incomplete tag. Maybe if it's spaced out more, instead of put into nearly every comic nowadays, it won't be so much of a problem. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.184|162.158.75.184]] 18:02, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

Can someone help me? [[User:Halo422|Halo422]] ([[User talk:Halo422|talk]]) 20:20, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

What's the emoji 2000-2017? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.141.214|172.68.141.214]] 21:05, 2 March 2018 (UTC)

319: Engineering Hubris

2017-12-09T22:17:29Z

172.68.141.214: /* Explanation */ Added link to wiki page of Murphy himself

{{comic
| number = 319
| date = September 21, 2007
| title = Engineering Hubris
| image = engineering hubris.png
| titletext = Chuck Jones is a vengeful god.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic starts with philosophical musing about {{w|engineering}}. The last panel reveals a joke about {{w|Wile E. Coyote and The Road Runner}}, a cartoon series created by {{w|Chuck Jones}}. In the cartoon, the Coyote is constantly building odd contraptions (with parts ordered from {{w|Acme Corporation}}) to catch the Road Runner. The Coyote never succeeds, often because his devices don't work as intended.

The word {{w|Hubris}} from the comic title means extreme pride or arrogance. It is a theme from the classic Greek plays, and is usually severely punished by the gods. The title text is implying that Chuck Jones would not let hubris go unpunished; the engineer might be able to construct 'better' traps than Wile E, but they would still be doomed to fail.

From the second panel, {{w|Murphy's law}} states "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong". It was originally developed as a guideline for accident prevention starting at the design level. In the common vernacular today, it is interpreted more liberally: "If there is even the slightest chance of an unfortunate accident occurring, despite all your attempts to prevent it, the accident will happen anyway, purely out of spite." The namesake {{w|Edward Murphy}} has since evolved to mythic proportions, being cast as a vengeful god of misfortune and ruin.

==Transcript==
:[Landscape in the background, canyon with a winding road.]
:Maybe engineering is the pursuit of an unattainable perfection.
:Maybe it's impossible to create something bug-free.
:Maybe I'm a fool
:Maybe the tyranny of Murphy is the penalty for hubris.
:But I just can't shake the feeling
:[Cueball standing on boxes labeled "ACME".]
:With all those supplies
:I could have caught that roadrunner.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Philosophy]]

Talk:1861: Quantum

2017-07-11T05:11:04Z

172.68.141.214: added comment about special relativistic explanation of magnetism.

The final paragraph probably should note that Magnets are directly on the ICP "Miracles" axis. [[User:JamesCurran|JamesCurran]] ([[User talk:JamesCurran|talk]]) 18:34, 10 July 2017 (UTC)

And now I have to listen to "Miracles" again. Thanks explainxkcd. [[User:OldCorps|OldCorps]] ([[User talk:OldCorps|talk]]) 19:03, 10 July 2017 (UTC)

Unless Randall includes Quantum Field Theory in Quantum Mechanics (which is unusual), General Relativity certainly must be on the right of QM, but on the chart they are almost same level, why? All physics students learn QM, but only small minority take GR course, because mathematically it's much more demanding.
If you look closely, General Relativity ''is'' slightly to the right of Quantum Mechanics. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.141.94|172.68.141.94]] 20:33, 10 July 2017 (UTC)

_I'M_ extremely intrigued by Special Relativity being depicted as requiring not much more math than Basic Physics (the only thing I've studied on this chart - I'm not counting magnets as all I know are the grade school basics), but as being vastly more exciting (I enjoyed the physics courses I took, as far as I remember). :) [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 04:46, 11 July 2017 (UTC)

It's interesting that special relativity is to the left of magnets when you can explain magnetism as a consequence of special relativity, from each charged particle's frame of reference, it's experiencing an electrostatic attraction or repulsion due to length contraction or an altered electric current due to time dilation.[[Special:Contributions/172.68.141.214|172.68.141.214]] 05:11, 11 July 2017 (UTC)