explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2258: Solar System Changes

2020-01-22T19:16:23Z

172.68.189.181: ¡Vote

* '''Support''' except keep Uranus. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.181|172.68.189.181]] 19:16, 22 January 2020 (UTC)

1635: Birdsong

2019-03-10T04:31:20Z

172.68.189.181:

{{comic
| number = 1635
| date = January 27, 2016
| title = Birdsong
| image = birdsong.png
| titletext = Maybe if I put it in a box for a while with a speaker playing some pleasant pastoral music, I can reprogram it.
}}

==Explanation==
The comic shows [[Cueball]] walking and singing along with the {{w|songbird}} singing above him; Cueball is apparently enjoying the perfect weather and the birdsong as he comments on both. In the next panel, the bird continues to sing but now it sings actual words (to the song "{{w|Smooth (song)|Smooth}}" ([https://youtu.be/6Whgn_iE5uc?t=1m26s official video]) by {{w|Santana (band)|Santana}} featuring {{w|Rob Thomas (musician)|Rob Thomas}}). This gives the word songbird a completely new meaning. The bird's singing begins to annoy Cueball, so he chases the bird with a {{w|butterfly net}} in an attempt to catch it. Meanwhile, the bird just continues with the song. (Interestingly, the two lines from the last two panels follow each other in the song, but Cueball manages to get hold of the net in between).

The lines the bird sings are (most) of the last three lines from the chorus (see the [http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/santana/smooth.html lyrics]):
*And it's just like the ocean under the moon
*Well, that's the same as the emotion that I get from you
*You '''got the kind of loving that can be so smooth, yeah.'''
*'''Gimme your heart, make it real'''
*'''Or else forget about it'''

The comic is a play on the words ''bird'' and ''song''. Songbirds, of course, don't actually sing: the sounds they make are territorial challenges, mating cries, etc. But in Western cultural traditions, particularly the {{w|pastoral}} one, imagining these sounds as 'song' is part of seeing nature as beautiful and harmonious. Ironically, the fact that this bird is really singing pop music, is perceived by Cueball to be an intrusion.

In the title text Cueball suggest playing {{w|Pastoral#Pastoral_music|pastoral music}} to 'reprogram' the bird, which is of course an even more unnatural intervention - all with the purpose of restoring the pastoral naturalness of the nature. Of course some birds can actually {{w|Talking bird|emulate human words}}, and in this way also sing real words, like with the {{w|common hill myna}}. Other birds can mimic any odd and unusual sounds, particularly the {{w|lyrebird}} of Australia is known to reproduce all types of sounds from chainsaws to barking dogs and certainly also music.

The title text of "reprogramming" the bird by placing it in a box also refers to {{w|B. F. Skinner|B.F. Skinner}} and his development of {{w|Programmed learning|programmed learning}} through his theories of operand conditioning and behaviorism in psychology. By famously using birds in so-called {{w|Skinner boxes}}, he conditioned birds to respond to certain stimuli and expect rewards for particular behaviors, leading to an understanding of many impulsive behaviors in humans like addiction. Cueball apparently hopes to "correct" the bird and its song through this method.

Animal conditioning was also referred to in [[1156: Conditioning]].

Lately [[Randall]] has had his characters catch several things (but [[:Category:Butterfly net|never butterflies]]) with a butterfly net; most recently in [[1622: Henge]], where it was the Sun that was caught in the net.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is walking and talking, while a bird, flying above him is singing, with four notes floating around it to indicate this. The notes are clearly above and removed from Cueball's text.]
:Cueball (singing): The sun is shining, the birds are singing—

:[Cueball stops and looks up when the bird above him starts to sing using human language, four notes are floating around the text. The text of the bird's song is in ''italic text'' to indicate this.]
:Bird (singing): ''Got the kind of lovin' that can be so smooth, yeah''

:[Cueball looks down and black smoke emanates from the top of his head. The bird now flies above the panel but still sings in human language, four notes are floating below the text.]
:Bird (singing - off-panel): ''Give me your heart, make it real''

:[Cueball is chasing the bird with a butterfly net, the bird is flying away from Cueball, continuing to sing, four notes are floating around the text.]
:Bird (singing): ''Or else forget about it''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Music]]
[[Category:Songs]]
[[Category:Animals]]
[[Category:Butterfly net]]

342: 1337: Part 2

2019-03-06T05:37:13Z

172.68.189.181: Fix wrong word

{{comic
| number = 342
| date = November 13, 2007
| title = 1337: Part 2
| image = 1337 part 2.png
| titletext = Trivia: Elaine is actually her middle name.
}}

==Explanation==
This is the second part of five in the "[[:Category:1337|1337]]" series. The title 1337 is "L-eet", or "elite", using the {{w|Leet}} alphabet.

All comics in the series:
*[[341: 1337: Part 1]]
*[[342: 1337: Part 2]]
*[[343: 1337: Part 3]]
*[[344: 1337: Part 4]]
*[[345: 1337: Part 5]]
This series was released on 5 consecutive days (Monday-Friday) and not over the usual Monday/Wednesday/Friday schedule.

"Like a ring in a bell" appears to be a reference to the {{w|Chuck Berry}} song {{w|Johnny B. Goode}}, in which Berry describes a young boy (like himself) who becomes a guitar-playing prodigy. The original lyric was "just like a-ringing a bell." Apparently, Elaine learned to program as quickly, easily, and skillfully as Johnny (and Chuck) learned to play rock 'n' roll.
{{w|Donald Knuth}} is a computer science Professor Emeritus at {{w|Stanford University}} who is famous for writing {{w|The Art of Computer Programming}} and developing the TeX computerized typesetting system. He may not have a mountain hideaway (a reference to ''{{w|Kill Bill}}'', by the way as is the whole training sequence), but he would be one of the best mentors a budding hacker could have.

The {{w|A* search algorithm}} and {{w|Dijkstra's algorithm}} are {{w|Graph traversal|graph search}} {{w|algorithm}}s. And what study of algorithms would be complete without a healthy study about finding complexities? {{w|Computational complexity theory|Time complexity}} is the amount of time an algorithm takes to execute. Upper and lower bounds for complexity is written in {{w|Big O notation}}. Best possible execution of an algorithm is constant time, or O(1), said in words, for any given data set no matter how large the algorithm will always return the answer in the same time. However, constant time is extremely difficult to achieve; linear time (O(n)) is also very good. For more complex algorithms, [http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+x*log%28x%29 O( n*log(n) )] is good, but [http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+x*log%28log%28x%29%29 O( n*log(log(n)) )] is better. (Note that logarithms in different bases are proportional to each other. So this would hold true for any base >1.)

From the evidence that [[Mrs. Roberts]] has two children, a daughter named [[Elaine Roberts|Elaine]], and a younger son named Bobby (presumably [[Little Bobby Tables]] aka "Robert'); DROP TABLE students;--"), we can assume that she is the same mother from [[327: Exploits of a Mom]]. Of course, the title text here explains that Elaine is only her middle name (assuming canonicity of title-text). In the title text to [[327: Exploits of a Mom]], we learned that her first name is "Help I'm trapped in a driver's license factory". Mrs. Roberts appears to have had fun naming her children.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball standing an looking down at his Cueball-like friend, who is sitting on the floor near an armchair holding a cloth to his face.]
:Friend: So the greatest hacker of our era is a cookie-baking mom?
:Cueball: Second-greatest.
:Friend: Oh?

:[The next panel is only half height as Cueball's narration is written as a caption above the panel without a frame around it. In the panel to the left lies a young Elaine with a ponytail on the floor typing at a keyboard while looking at a screen connected to a computer behind it with lots of wires and open case. The computer appears to have been pieced together and there is a screwdriver lying next to her and an open box lies behind her. Little Bobby Tables (a kid version of Cueball) is painting with a broad brush at an easel to the left. There is a clear drawing with two parts going up and one down, but it's not easy to see what it should look like. He is holding his other hand up in the air, like he is enjoying the painting.]
:Cueball (narrating): Mrs. Roberts had two children. Her son, Bobby, was never much for computers, but her daughter Elaine took to them like a ring in the bell.

:[The front of a car is in frame with side mirror and steering wheel visible. Mrs. Roberts is waving goodbye to her daughter who is wearing a backpack and is holding a walking stick. She is about to begin climbing a staircase built into a rocky mountain side. The first 11 step are visible. Behind the two and the stair are two distant mountain peaks, and above them two clouds. Cueball continues to narrate, this time inside the panel:]
:Cueball (narrating): When Elaine turned 11, her mother sent her to train under Donald Knuth in his mountain hideaway.

:[Donald Knuth, drawn with hair only around his neck, is standing with a pointing stick at a chalk board with graph traversal patterns on it and two blocks of unreadable text the top may be a matrix. This small panel is also lower than the next panel, with Cueballs narration above:]
:Cueball (narrating): For four years she studied algorithms.
:Donald Knuth: Child—

:[Donald Knuth whips around from the board slashing the stick like a sword. Elaine jumps, making a somersault (indicated with a line curving on it self from floor to sword) and lands on the stick balancing with her arms out.]
:Donald Knuth: Why is A* search wrong in this situation?
:Stick: ''swish''
:Elaine: Memory usage!
:Donald Knuth: What would you use?
:Elaine: Dijkstra's algorithm!

:[Donald Knuth and Elaine are outside, seen from behind while they are both writing on a chalkboard with a thick line down the middle to separate their work. On both sides their writing can be seen but it is unreadable. Where there is only text visible on Donald Knuth's side there is also what appears to be a drawing or matrix at the top of Elaine's. But a similar thing could be behind Donald Knuth's head. Elaine is no longer wearing her hair in a ponytail but have long straight white hair like her mom Mrs. Roberts. To the left there is a stump from a tree, some grass and maybe a puddle of water. Further back there is a small jagged hill and a flat horizon. To the right there are four mountain peaks and a flat high plateau towards the horizon. The frame of the panel does not include the top and bottom corner, but cuts a rectangular section of both places. In these two sections outside the panel is the last two paragraphs of Cueball's narrating:]
:Cueball (narrating): Until one day she bested her master
:Donald Knuth: So our lower bound here is O(n log n)
:Elaine: Nope. Got it in O(n log (log n))
:Cueball (narrating): And left.

==Trivia==
*In this [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJOS0sV2a24#t=21m30s Google-speech] Donald Knuth personally asked [[Randall]] what his ''n*log(log(n))'' algorithm for searching was, and Randall referred him to Elaine.
*Elaine is actually her middle name.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:1337|02]]
[[Category:Comics sharing name|1337]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Elaine Roberts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Little Bobby Tables]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Mrs. Roberts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Donald Knuth]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]] 
[[Category:Computers]]

522: Google Trends

2019-01-01T23:53:51Z

172.68.189.181: /* Explanation */ Actual citation actually needed on the joke's premise; marked incomplete. Also cleaned up language around politics

{{comic
| number = 522
| date = December 26, 2008
| title = Google Trends
| image = google_trends.png
| titletext = Obama has been writing Lincoln/Obama erotic fan fiction on his secret livejournal. Excerpt: Lincoln lay back on the bed, nude save for his trademark stovepipe hat. 'Tell me,' he purred seductively, as he and Obama formed a more perfect union. 'When you come, is it 10% ethanol?'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|I cannot for the life of me find these "bloggers" that Randall's talking about. The only proof I can find of the supposedly real geographic trend for "men kissing" is this comic. Could someone do a deeper dig and see if they can find Randall's source.
{{w|Google Search|Google}} keeps track of which searches are most popular in which regions as part of more general data mining to improve their service. For the enjoyment/education of others, they release select, non-personal parts of this data under the banner "[http://www.google.com/trends/ Google Trends]."

The first statistic – that "Men kissing" was popular in {{w|Utah}}, a state known for possessing a large population with very conservative social values, including opposition to homosexuality – is real. The others are made up for the sake of the joke. In order:

*'''"Installing Ubuntu" – Redmond, WA''': {{w|Ubuntu}} is a {{w|Linux}} distribution; {{w|Redmond, Washington}} is home to {{w|Microsoft}}, the company that makes rival operating system {{w|Microsoft Windows|Windows}}.
*'''"Running for President in 2010" – Wasilla, AK''': 2010 was not a presidential election year in the United States; {{w|Wasilla, Alaska}} is home to {{w|Sarah Palin}}, a politician known for making such gaffes and who was {{w|John McCain}}'s {{w|running mate}} in the {{w|United States presidential election, 2008|2008 election}} that occurred a few weeks before this comic.
*'''"Lincoln Fan Fiction" – Chicago, IL''': {{w|Abraham Lincoln}} was the US president from 1861 to his assassination in 1865; {{w|Chicago, Illinois}} is home to {{w|Barack Obama}}, who apparently reads (presumably {{w|erotic}}) {{w|fanfiction}} about the former president.
*'''"Raptors on Hoverboards" – Somerville, MA''': {{w|Velociraptors}} are a favorite xkcd topic; There are also frequently references to ''{{w|Back to the Future}}'' as with the {{w|hoverboards}} here. {{w|Somerville, Massachusetts}} is home to [[Randall Munroe]]. The speed of a ''Raptor on Hoverboard'' is given in [[526: Converting to Metric]].
*'''"How is babby formed" – Wasilla, AK''': "How is babby formed?" was the title (and most of the content) of an infamous Yahoo! Answers question (see the title text of [[481: Listen to Yourself]] and [[550: Density]]). Wasilla, Alaska is, again, home to {{w|Sarah Palin}}; a few months prior to this comic's release, Sarah Palin revealed that her daughter, {{w|Bristol Palin}}, was pregnant.
*'''"I hate this website" – Mountain View, CA''': {{w|Mountain View, California}} is home to {{w|Google}}'s headquarters. The implication is that Google employees are putting "I hate this website" into Google.

With regards to the excerpt Randall provides in the title text:
*{{w|Slash fiction}} is a genre of fan fiction that focuses on homosexual behavior.
*Lincoln/Obama (pronounced Lincoln slash Obama) fan fiction normally should be between Abraham Lincoln and Barack Obama.
*However we later see that {{w|Lincoln (car)|Lincoln}} is a car.
*The "more perfect union" line comes from the preamble to the US Constitution: "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union..."
*{{w|Ethanol}} is the more scientific name for drinking alcohol, or simply alcohol.
*"{{w|Common ethanol fuel mixtures#E10_or_less|10% ethanol}}" refers to automotive gasoline that includes 10% ethanol (usually made from corn or other vegetables), with the hopes of reducing the dependence on oil for fuel.
*With regards to the title-text, the verb "[http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/come come]" means "to have an orgasm" or "to ejaculate". In this mock slash fiction the Lincoln is supposed to ejaculate gasoline, and expects Obama to do the same.

==Transcript==
:Bloggers were recently amused to discover that,
:according to Google Trends, the search term:
:"men kissing" is most popular in conservative Utah.
:A few other embarrassing correlations:

:[A two column table]

:;Search Term
::Top City
----
:;Installing Ubuntu
::Redmond, WA

:;Running for President in 2010
::Wasilla, AK

:;Lincoln Fan Fiction
::Chicago, IL

:;Raptors on Hoverboards
::Somerville, MA

:;How is babby formed?
::Wasilla, AK

:;I hate this website
::Mountain View, CA

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Linux]]
[[Category:Velociraptors]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Homosexuality]]

2064: I'm a Car

2018-10-28T19:01:09Z

172.68.189.181: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2064
| date = October 26, 2018
| title = I'm a Car
| image = im_a_car.png
| titletext = I'm the proud parent of an honor student, and the person driving me is proud, too!
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Looks complete or mention here why this explanation isn't. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic was released eleven days before the {{w|United States midterm election|United States midterm elections}} on {{w|United States elections, 2018|Tuesday, November 6, 2018}} and even the [[Design_of_xkcd.com#Header|header text]] at the top of the xkcd page had changed a few days before by showing a link to [https://www.vote.org/ vote.org] to help US citizens to register and finding their polling places. [[Randall]] uses a neutral way to encourage people to use the right to rule their governmental representatives. Only before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2016|presidential election, 2016}} he took sides to one party as done in the comic [[1756: I'm With Her]].

This comic shows a car with a {{w|bumper sticker}}, which is generally a thin rectangle piece of plastic with a message on one side and adhesive on the other side in order to stick to a car. This allows the owner of the car to display a message they want to present to whoever is driving behind them or in their vicinity. Bumper stickers are usually used to express a viewpoint, whether personal or political, held by the owner or driver of the car. This comic makes literal the ones that include or allude to the personal pronoun "I" and its variations, i.e. {{w|Grammatical person|first person singular}} statements. Of course the intent is that "I" is referring to the person who put the bumper sticker on the car, but as the sticker is attached to the car the more literal interpretation is that "I" is referring to the car. So the humor is derived by the notion that the car itself is making these statements. (On an even more meta level, the comic could be interpreted as saying that the person who wrote the words in the comic, i.e. [[Randall]], is saying that he is a car.)

The bumper sticker on the car in the comic is a variation of a sticker used to both encourage people to vote, as well as express their political position: "I'm a ___, and I vote" (where the blank is traditionally filled in with "Democrat" or "Republican" or some other political affiliation). However here it is attributed to an automobile which is not [https://resources.lawinfo.com/civil-rights/right-to-vote/what-are-the-requirements-to-be-eligible-to-v.html capable of voting].

The comic could be an indirect reference to the growing "intelligence" of {{w|self-driving cars}}, such that one day they might have the intellect to communicate, vote, and engage in other self-motivated activities. See ‘{{w|Sally (short story)|Sally}}’ by {{w|Isaac Asimov}}. It may also relate to security concerns around increasing use of electronic voting mechanisms - the joke being that the car is able to abuse the interfaces to such systems either to vote on behalf of its owner or as its own entity. Though voting might not be one's biggest concern if their "intelligent" car got dragged into a bot net...

The title text seems to be another [https://www.positivepromotions.com/proud-parent-of-an-honor-student-bumper-sticker-personalization-available/p/os-3360/ typical message] on a bumper sticker, saying that the driver is a "Proud Parent Of An Honor Student". However, this sticker is a bit longer, since it continues to state that "the person driving me is proud, too". Thus once again it is the car who is the proud parent. And thus maybe it is a car that is the honor student?

==Transcript==
:[The bottom right rear end of a car is shown with a bumper sticker next to the unreadable license plate.]
:I'm a car
:''and I vote''

==Trivia==
*This is the third comic displaying a bumper sticker, after the comics [[80: My Other Car]] and [[1033: Formal Logic]] that came out in 2006 and 2012 respectively.
*Bumper stickers also are mentioned as a future milestone for self-driving cars in [[1925: Self-Driving Car Milestones]].
*Randall also sells bumper stickers with the word "OPINIONS!" on them at the [https://store.xkcd.com/products/opinions-bumper-sticker xkcd-store].

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Politics]]

887: Future Timeline

2018-10-13T05:44:28Z

172.68.189.181: Forgot stuff in previous edit

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

==Explanation==

{{incomplete | transcript: lineless table is still a table}}

This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g. "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "HTML 5 Finished". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

The title text is born of a recurring "white people panic" situation; scaremongers will predict white minority in the very near future in order to get the panicked racist people to pay attention to them (without actually using valid or accepted scientific measurements to back up these claims- panicked racist people don't exactly fact-check very much), while level-headed sociologists will usually come up with more distant, if not nonexistent, dates from their extrapolations.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

===Accuracy===
====2012-2014====
The only predictions for this period that came true are that the world population has surpassed 7 billion. Canada formally withdrew from the Kyoto protocol in December 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period). Sadly, homelessness is still a problem in Massachusetts. The prediction about GNU/Linux operating systems remains false; although Android (which is built on the Linux kernel) is currently the most dominant OS, it is not completely GNU/Linux, which remains an extreme minority on consumer devices. And so far as we're aware, the apocalypse has yet to occur.

====2015-2016====
{{w|New Horizons}} made its closest approach to Pluto in July 2015. It was never intended to ''land'' on Pluto, though the comic does not necessarily imply this.

The other 2015 predictions did not come true, though some might claim gender equality was reached.

{{w|Android OS}}' market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014, showing that both estimates were overly conservative.<ref>http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp</ref> {{w|Windows Phone}} continued to have less than 30% of {{w|iOS}}' market share.

====2017-2018====
None of the predictions for this period have come true.

==The predictions==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to worry about overpopulation, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close: Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| False; still 5-10 years away. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from Kyoto treaty in late 2011.
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt has been a political point of contention, with the Republicans typically favoring paying it all off, and the Democrats more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy. Clinton, a Democrat, at one point proposed [http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although [https://www.google.com/search?q=rfid+implants RFID implants] do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, which at the time allegedly hosted the headquarters of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support now favors a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government cannot simply move all the troops currently in Afghanistan home right now. For one, that would cause immediate chaos in the country. Therefore, the government instead promises to eventually withdraw all troops, planning on doing so by the end of 2014.
| False. As of April 2017, 11,000 US troops remain in Afghanistan.
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [http://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warns that the [http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
| False.
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| False
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still far negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of internet media and mobile devices has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
|
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device}} are beginning to adopt other methods of input, such as voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While the use of touch screens in particular is gaining widespread use, as of 2014 none has come close to making keyboards and mice obsolete. None of them allows text input as fast as a keyboard, and none is suitable for writing program code.
|
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
|
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} political-religious leadership, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This may be foreshadowing of the Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria, which has as its goal the creation of a restored caliphate.
|
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This could be linked to {{w|global warming}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
|
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the second coming, the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible itself says that "no man can know the date". Several predicted dates have come and gone.
|
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble economic turmoil].
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea.
|
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
|
|-
| China lands men and women on the moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the moon.
|
|-
| NASA sets up permanent moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
|
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| There are two possible explanations for this entry: Either it's fear-mongering from misogynists or, more probably, an erroneous extrapolation from the current rate at which female incomes are catching up to male incomes.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
|
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| http://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}} [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due].
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computers already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|
| As of 00:00, 5 January 2015 (UTC), Wikipedia has over 34 million total articles, if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only 5.549 million articles, as of 12 January 2017.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles] (PDF)
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [http://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [http://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| http://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| http://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| http://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Quake-scientists-predict-Big-One-likely-by-2032-2653745.php {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| http://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| http://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098 ?
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [http://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([http://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon])
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [http://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/ 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [http://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [http://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [http://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [http://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| Ray Kurzweil predicts of 'singularity' which will lead to race of super intelligent beings
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock] - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [http://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [http://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| Article archive - [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/http://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [http://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [http://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct - see WWF report on [http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ Unsustainable fishing]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [http://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [http://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [http://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [http://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [http://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012!
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [http://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [http://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [http://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [http://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [http://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [http://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [http://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [http://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on 28 July 2061.<ref name=horizons>[http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi Donald K. Yeomans. "Horizon Online Ephemeris System". California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 8 September 2006.]</ref>
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [http://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [http://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [http://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [http://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [http://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [http://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [http://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [http://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [http://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [http://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [http://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [http://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [http://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [http://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [http://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [http://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [http://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [http://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [http://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [http://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [http://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}".
|
|}
<references/>

==Transcript==

{{incomplete transcript | lineless table is still a table}}

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
::{|
|-
|"By <year>"
|"In year"
|-
|"By the year <year>"
|"In the year <year>"
|-
|"Will * by the year <year>"
|"Will * in the year <year>"
|-
|"In <year>, * will"
|"By <year>, * will"
|}

:{|
|-
|rowspan="4" width="50px" valign="top"|2012
|World population reaches 7 billion
|-
|Flying cars reach market
|-
|Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
|-
|Apocalypse occurs
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2013
|National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
|-
|Microchipping of all Americans begins
|-
|Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
|-
|Health care reform law repealed
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2014
|US leaves Afghanistan
|-
|GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2015
|New Horizons reaches Pluto
|-
|Health care law causes hyperinflation
|-
|192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
*Universal primary education implemented
*Women empowered, gender equality reached
*Environmental stability ensured
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2016
|Baby boomers begin turning 65
|-
|Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
|-
|Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
|-
|Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
|-
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2017
|China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
|-
|Social Security stops running surplus
|-
|US budget balanced
|-
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out
|-
|Cosmetic surgery doubles
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2018
|Social Security stops running surplus
|-
|Jesus returns to Earth
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2019
|Social Security stops running surplus
|-
|Every baby has genes mapped at birth
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2020
|Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
|-
|Keyboards and mice become obsolete
|-
|New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2021
|US debt reaches 97% of GDP
|-
|US unemployment falls to 2.8%
|-
|Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
|-
|Lake Mead evaporates
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2022
|Kilimanjaro snow-free
|-
|HTML 5 finished
|-
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2023
|Jesus returns to Earth (again)
|-
|US debt passes 100% of GDP
|-
|All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
|-
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2024
|Atlantis begins to reappear
|-
|Orangutans extinct in wild
|-
|China lands men and women on the moon
|-
|NASA sets up permanent moon base
|-
|Female professionals pass males in pay
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2025
|World population reaches 8 billion
|-
|Two billion people face water shortages
|-
|62 MPG cars introduced
|-
|US power fades
|-
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2026
|Atlantis emerges completely
|-
|Rock Bands die out
|-
|US debt paid off
|-
|Car accidents cease
|-
|West coast falls into ocean
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2027
|Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
|-
|Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
|-
|Social Security stops running surplus
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2028
|Tobacco outlawed
|-
|40% of coral reefs gone
|-
|US debt paid off
|-
|Social Security stops running surplus
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2029
|Social Security trust fund exhausted
|-
|Computers pass the Turing test
|-
|Aging reversed
|-
|Wikipedia reaches 30 Million articles
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2030
|Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
|-
|Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
|-
|Arctic ice-free in summer
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2031
|Computers controlled by thought
|-
|Realtors replaced by technology
|-
|Social Security trust fund exhausted
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2032
|"Big One" hits San Francisco
|-
|US elects first married lesbian President
|-
|Entire world converted to Christianity
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2033
|Kilimanjaro ice disappears
|-
|India becomes superpower
|-
|Europe reaches Mars
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2034
|US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
|-
|US builds autonomous robot army
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2035
|80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
|-
|Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
|-
|Arctic sea lane opens
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2036
|80% of US has access to high-speed rail
|-
|Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2037
|Arctic ice-free in September
|-
|Social Security trust fund exhausted
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2038
|32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
|-
|"Big One" hits California
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2039
|US population hits 400 Million
|-
|Severe heat waves become commonplace
|-
|Scientology becomes majority religion in US
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2040
|Arctic summers ice-free
|-
|Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2041
|Social Security trust fund exhausted
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2042
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2043
|World population passes 9 Billion
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2044
|Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
|-
|Childhood obesity reaches 100%
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2045
|Humans and machines merge
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2046
|World's natural resources depleted
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2047
|World ruled by banks and corporations
|-
|Tobacco industry fails
|-
|US begins using autonomous attack drones
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2048
|Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
|-
|Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
|-
|Entire US population overweight
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2049
|$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
|-
|Singularity occurs
|-
|Fishing industry collapses
|-
|rowspan="5" valign="top"|2050
|80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
|-
|China controls space
|-
|Sex with robots possible
|-
|Cars banned from European cities
|-
|One million species extinct from climate change
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2051
|Atmosphere escapes into space
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2052
|Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2053
|US budget balanced
|-
|Majority of Americans in prison
|-
|Cars driven by dogs
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2054
|Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2055
|Atmospheric CO2 doubled
|-
|Oil runs out
|-
|Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2056
|RFID-tagged driverless cars
|-
|Robots given same rights as humans
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2057
|150 Japanese settlers on Mars
|-
|Colorado River runs dry
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2058
|Smoking ends in New Zealand
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2059
|Humans have domesticated robots
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2060
|Human race lives in peace
|-
|Extreme droughts across much of Earth
|-
|Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
|-
|Oil runs out again
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2061
|Halley's comet returns
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2062
|Uganda hosts World Cup
|-
|The Jetsons
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2063
|First human clones reach adulthood
|-
|Population of Moon reaches 100,000
|-
|Population of Mars reaches 10,000
|-
|Spacecraft exceed speed of light
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2064
|Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2065
|Last coral reefs die out
|-
|Chernobyl cleanup complete
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2066
|Cyprus achieves its goal
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2067
|Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
|-
|Redheads go extinct
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2068
|Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
|-
|Lord Jesus rules Earth from throne in Jerusalem
|-
|Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2069
|Public masturbation legalized
|-
|rowspan="3" valign="top"|2070
|World population peaks
|-
|City-scale flooding disasters
|-
|60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2071
|Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
|-
|World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2072
|US retirement age is set to 75
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2073
|Oceans do not rise one foot
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2074
|Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
|-
|Supertyphoons hit Japan
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2075
|US retirement age set to 69
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2076
|Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
|-
|Social Security trust fund exhausted
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2077
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2078
|Newspapers become obsolete and die out
|-
|rowspan="4" valign="top"|2079
|US debt reaches 716% of GDP
|-
|Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
|-
|Floods commonplace
|-
|Religion marginalized
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2080
|Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
|-
|UK population doubles
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2081
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2082
|World population declines to one billion
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2083
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2084
|Robot policemen introduced
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2085
|US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2086
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2087
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2088
|Japan becomes all-robot country
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2089
|World halts fossil fuel use
|-
|rowspan="2" valign="top"|2090
|Global warming hits 7 °C
|-
|Global warming hits 4 °C
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2091
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2092
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2093
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2094
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2095
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2096
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2097
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2098
|
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2099
|
|-
|rowspan="11" valign="top"|2100
|Global warming around 5-7 °C
|-
|Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
|-
|Joshua trees nearly extinct
|-
|Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
|-
|Germany tropical
|-
|Emperor penguins extinct
|-
|Arctic permafrost thaws
|-
|Rising seas flood coastal cities
|-
|Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
|-
|All coral reefs gone
|-
|Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
|-
|rowspan="1" valign="top"|2101
|WAR WAS BEGINNING
|}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]

1040: Lakes and Oceans

2018-10-13T03:03:05Z

172.68.189.181: /* Transcript */ incomplete: bad table

{{comic
| number = 1040
| date = April 9, 2012
| title = Lakes and Oceans
| image = lakes and oceans.png
| titletext = James Cameron has said that he didn't know its song would be so beautiful. He didn't close the door in time. He's sorry.
}}

==Explanation==
[http://xkcd.com/1040/large Full size image (2.5MB — 2592×1728)]

This comic is a scale representation of our lakes and oceans, with an emphasis on how little we know about our oceans. It shows the depths and lengths to in relative scale. The ''{{w|Edmund Fitzgerald}}'' was a {{w|Great Lakes}} freighter which sank in 1975. The {{w|Russian submarine Kursk (K-141)|''Kursk'' (K-141)}} was a {{w|Russian}} nuclear submarine which sank in 2000 after an explosion. The {{w|RMS Lusitania|RMS ''Lusitania''}} was a {{w|British}} ocean liner which was famously sunk in 1915, eventually prompting the {{w|United States}} to enter {{w|World War I}}. All three of these ships were sunk in water that was shallower than they were long. The shortest was the ''Kursk'', which was 154 metres long, and sunk in water only 100 metres deep.

Also on the diagram is the {{w|RMS Titanic|RMS ''Titanic''}}, which famously sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg, and the ''{{w|Seawise Giant}}'', which is the largest ship ever built, at 485 metres. It was scrapped in 2010. The {{w|Deepwater Horizon}} is an offshore oil well which made headlines after an explosion in 2010 caused the {{w|Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill|world's largest oil spill}}. The skyscraper the {{w|Burj Khalifa}} is also shown. The Burj Khalifa is the world's tallest manmade structure, and is located in the city of {{w|Dubai}}, in the {{w|United Arab Emirates}}. The {{w|Chilean}} mine showed on the far right is the {{w|San José Mine}}, which suffered a {{w|2010 Copiapó mining accident|collapse}} in 2010, trapping 33 men 700 metres underground for 69 days. The {{w|Kola Superdeep Borehole}} also shown on the right was a {{w|Soviet}} (and later Russian) research project attempting to drill as deep into the {{w|Crust (geology)|Earth's crust}} as possible. It was abandoned in 2005, after reaching a record of 12,262 metres deep.

Also shown are several notable bodies of water. There are the Great Lakes: {{w|Lake Superior}}, {{w|Lake Michigan}}, {{w|Lake Huron}}, {{w|Lake Erie}}, and {{w|Lake Ontario}}. {{w|Death Valley}} is a large, desert valley in {{w|California}}, named because the deadly climate and dry environment support very few life forms. {{w|Great Slave Lake}} is the deepest lake in {{w|North America}}, and is located in the {{w|North West Territories}}, in {{w|Canada}}. {{w|Crater Lake}} is located in {{w|Oregon}}, and is the deepest lake in the United States. {{w|Loch Ness}} is the {{w|Scotland|Scottish}} lake which is the location of the alleged "{{w|Loch Ness Monster}}". {{w|Lake Baikal}} is located in {{w|Russia}} and {{w|Mongolia}}, and is the world's deepest lake. On the far right side of the image is the {{w|Dead Sea}}, a lake near {{w|Jordan}} and {{w|Israel}} which is characterized for having such high salt levels that the waters are toxic to much marine life (hence a "dead" sea), although it does support a bacterial and algal ecosystem that is tolerant to high salt and magnesium concentrations.

In the water, the ''{{w|Andrea Gail}}'' was a ship that sunk in a {{w|1991 Perfect Storm|storm}} in 1991, and was later eulogized with a {{w|The_Perfect_Storm_(book)|book}} and {{w|The_Perfect_Storm_(film)|film}}. Several depth limits are shown, including the {{w|free-diving}} record (273 metres), the {{w|scuba diving}} record (330 metres), the depth bike tires go flat (approximately 100 metres), the depth at which water rushes in through a hole in a scuba tank instead of air rushing out (approximately 2000 metres), the pressure that would push a cork into a bottle (approximately 250 metres), the depth that would push water up a faucet (approximately 75 metres), the depth an {{w|emperor penguin}} can dive (535 metres), the depth limit of an {{w|Ohio-class submarine|''Ohio''-class submarine}} (240 metres), the depth limit of a {{w|Typhoon-class submarine|''Typhoon''-class submarine}} (400 metres), the depth limit of a {{w|blue whale}} (500 metres), and the depth a {{w|leatherback sea turtle}} can dive (1280 metres).

The small unlabeled mark under the "cork into a bottle" text is around {{w|leet|1 337}} metres deep.

The comic also illustrates how {{w|sperm whales}} can dive as deep as 3000 metres (though don't frequently go deeper than 400 metres). It is presumed that they dive so deep to feed on {{w|giant squid}}, which can be found as deep as 3000 metres but, to our knowledge, are more commonly found in depths of 300 to 1000 metres. The fact that sperm whales can dive so deep and come up battered emphasizes Randall's point that we know so little about our oceans. Also shown are the depth limit of the {{w|DSV Alvin|DSV ''Alvin''}}, a deep-sea vessel, the {{w|mid-ocean ridge}}, an underwater mountain range which could be considered to be the largest mountain range in the world, the {{w|Puerto Rico Trench}} (and the included {{w|Milwaukee Deep}}), which is the deepest part of the {{w|Atlantic Ocean}}, at 8648 metres, and the {{w|Mariana Trench|Marianas Trench}}, the deepest point of the {{w|Pacific Ocean}} at 10,944 metres. At the bottom of the Mariana Trench, pressure is as high as 1086 {{w|bar (unit)|bars}} and {{w|Xenophyophore|life forms}} have been found at depths as low as 10,641 metres.

The marked {{w|abyssal plains}} are a deep-sea plain believed to hold a very diverse array of life forms, but are largely unexplored. The stick figures of {{w|David Bowie}} and {{w|Freddie Mercury}} are a reference to Bowie's and Queen's songs "{{w|Under Pressure}}". The label "the abyss" with its sublabel of "it's rude to stare" is a reference to the {{w|Friedrich Nietzsche}} quote, "when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares back". There's also a movie from 1989 called {{w|The Abyss}}.

The door at the bottom of the {{w|Marianas Trench}} is fictional, and is a reference to {{w|James Cameron}}'s attempt to reach the bottom of the trench in his ''{{w|Deepsea Challenger}}'' vessel, which he filmed with 3D cameras in 2012. Randall is implying Cameron went so deep specifically to reach this door, rather than just for the sake of going.

The title text implies that James Cameron has encountered some otherworldly, Lovecraftian being behind the door at the bottom of Challenger Deep; he thought he could access it briefly, however did not count on its hypnotic or entrancing song, which led to him leaving the door open long enough for it to enter the world and possibly precipitate some horrible calamity. This song is a reference to the {{w|Siren_(mythology)|sirens of Greek mythology}} whose singing was irresistible to sailors, who would sail toward them and crash into rock, wrecking their ships, until Odysseus survived by having his sailors plug their ears and tie him to the mast. The concept is also a reference to the sort of horror fiction popularised by {{w|H. P. Lovecraft}}, often called "[http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/CosmicHorrorStory cosmic horror]", whose stories often contain godlike alien beings that are locked away or hidden in remote places, such as {{w|Cthulhu}} and {{w|Azathoth}}. There is no specific story with a door at the bottom of the ocean containing an entity that sings entrancingly, Randall is making a clever reference to the concepts popularised by this genre as whole. {{w|Pacific Rim (film)| Pacific Rim}}, a movie depict the Earth under the attack of gigantic alien monsters (called Kaiju) emerging from an inter-dimensional portal at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, was released in 2013.

==Transcript==

{{incomplete transcript | bad table}}

:[A Map of lakes and oceans showing the depths of various lakes and ocean attributes.]

:Lakes and Oceans Depths and animal/ship/boat lengths are to scale; horizontal distance is not.

:Fun Fact: The ''Edmund Fitzgerald'', The Kursk, and The Lusitania all sank in water shallower than they were long.
{| class="wikitable"
| Edmund Fitzgerald
|-
| Lake Superior
|-
| Lake Michigan
|-
| Lake Huron
|-
| Lake Erie
|-
| Lake Ontario
|-
| Death Valley
|-
| Great Slave Lake Crater
|-
| Lake Loch Ness
|-
| Lake Baikal
|-
| Burj Khalifa
|-
| Kursk
|-
| Lusitania
|-
| Titanic
|-
| Seawise Giant (largest ship ever)
|-
| Free-diving depth record Andrea Gail (probably)
|-
| Scuba record
|-
| Bike tires go flat Pressure at this depth would force water up a household faucet
|-
| Emperor penguin
|-
| Ohio-class nuclear sub depth limit
|-
| Typhoon-class nuclear sub depth limit
|-
| Blue whale
|-
| Leatherback turtle
|-
| Deepwater horizion
|-
| Dead sea
|-
| Kola borehole aiolo| Soviet project to try to drill through the Earth's crust to the mantle just to see what would happen. Russians are awesome.
|-
| Chilean mine collapse
|-
| miner refuge Sperm whales dive this deep (they come up covered in wounds and sucker marks, so presumably there are big squid down here? ... man, we know nothing about the ocean.)
|-
| Mid-ocean ridge
|-
| Titanic (sunk bow & stern)
|-
| Abyssal plain
|-
| Alvin depth limit
|-
| David Bowie & Freddie Mercury
|-
| Puerto Rico
|-
| Trench Milwaukee
|-
| Deep Marianas
|-
| Trench Challenger
|-
| Deep Mysterious door which James Cameron built his sub to reach and open. He will not say what he found within.
|-
| Mauna Kea, Hawaii (accurate horizontal scale)
|-
| Marianas trench
|-
| Oil
|}
{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Fun fact]]

Talk:2054: Data Pipeline

2018-10-05T16:59:30Z

172.68.189.181: PSA—advertising m.xkcd.com

tried my hand at transcipts again, hope i did ok. [[User:Nintendo Mc|Nintendo Mc]] ([[User talk:Nintendo Mc|talk]]) 15:32, 3 October 2018 (UTC)

Oddly prescient, as always. I've just finished writing a fully automated data pipeline that ingests multiple data sources (both manual and automated input), has API support, a frontend, and email dispatch capabilities entirely in Google Sheets. It was about 3x faster to code than doing it right. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.65.6|172.68.65.6]] 16:48, 3 October 2018 (UTC)
: That's so awesome ! Would you come back and let us know if it ever collapses because one of the data sources changes slightly? (or alternatively, that it _doesn't_ collapse and cueball needs to get his shit together?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.130|162.158.78.130]] 01:22, 4 October 2018 (UTC)

Just added a line about how this is a logical continuation of the Code Quality series - given it's the same two people, this should be uncontroversial. Is it worth adding a new category for "Code Quality" to group these (and likely subsequent comics) together? [[User:Grimreaperwithalawnmower|Grimreaperwithalawnmower]] ([[User talk:Grimreaperwithalawnmower|talk]]) 17:20, 3 October 2018 (UTC)
::Quite controversial, in fact. I actually found that statement quite questionable and that it should probably be removed (only in part because the title isn't grouping it in with them). Related? Certainly. But a full part of the group? THIS Cueball seems like he's far more capable than Code Quality Cueball. THIS Cueball managed to construct a highly useful piece of software that - until the final panel - did the job they needed. The issue here is the Bobby Tables issue, that he neglected to sanitize the input, i.e. to at least write the program in a way that it could handle variety. The program relies heavily on the exact format of the data it's gathering (a format that he has no control over, it's set by the source). Okay, this suggests he's using prewritten code and connecting it together, but getting code pieces together into a cohesive whole is a considerable feat, showing some programming prowess (far better ability that CQ Cueball). [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:05, 5 October 2018 (UTC)

What could we still add to the transcript? I don't think it really needs any more transcripting so maybe we should remove the marker. [[User:Kwonunn|Kwonunn]] ([[User talk:Kwonunn|talk]]) 18:50, 3 October 2018 (UTC)

No comment about the "roll over" text (excuse me if I have the name wrong). I think this is a comment about the shear computing power, battery life and superior connectivity of modern mobile phones compared to laptops. [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 19:05, 3 October 2018 (UTC)
: IIRC, it's generally called "hover text." -(Who was this?)
:: pretty sure it's actually "title text" [[User:Halo422|Halo422]] ([[User talk:Halo422|talk]]) 01:09, 4 October 2018 (UTC)
::: It ''is'' actually "title text", though Randall calls it "alt-text" & contrary to W3C recommendations, he seems to use the same text for both. [[User:ProphetZarquon|ProphetZarquon]] ([[User talk:ProphetZarquon|talk]]) 05:13, 4 October 2018 (UTC)
::::Here on the Wiki people usually go with "Title text", occasionally "Mouse-over text". Which I like, partially because it's clear what it means, even to the casual visitor, and partially because it highlights my issue: I use these sites on a tablet, don't have a mouse, I can't see the text until I come here. :) RIIW has a point, this needs a paragraph about the Title Text. But no, it isn't saying phones are more reliable, it's a joke that neither should be hosting anything, neither is meant to be online 24/7. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:32, 5 October 2018 (UTC)
:::::'''Public service announcement:''' If you can't read the alt-text because you're on a mobile device, you should try using the mobile version of the website: https://m.xkcd.com/2054 . Its main features include the ability to tap/click the image to make the alt-text show up, and the whole thing is distraction-free. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.181|172.68.189.181]] 16:59, 5 October 2018 (UTC)

Re: superior connectivity of mobile phones, see https://xkcd.com/1865/
: This is exactly why I assert that anything hosted from a laptop should at least be considered for hosting from a mobile device instead. It's annoying to me that so many developers still consider a mobile device which has more connected uptime than a laptop to be unsuitable for hosting, say, a text-based game server. It's got a faster connection & more idle processing power than the PCs that used to run some of those game servers; I think my tablet could handle running a BBS Door game, for example. [[User:ProphetZarquon|ProphetZarquon]] ([[User talk:ProphetZarquon|talk]]) 05:14, 4 October 2018 (UTC)

: While all of the comments about connectivity between a laptop and a mobile device may be valid, I think the joke here is that any serious data processing application should not be running on either - it should instead be operated in a fixed-connectivity server-type environment instead. [[User:Ianrbibtitlht|Ianrbibtitlht]] ([[User talk:Ianrbibtitlht|talk]]) 16:37, 4 October 2018 (UTC)
::I concur, the point is that nothing mobile should be HOSTING, hosted files should be on a system designed to be never off and never disconnected. Both a laptop and a cell could have their batteries die, or they have to be permanently plugged in, defeating the purpose of them being "mobile". [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:21, 5 October 2018 (UTC)

Had to fix the description, it stated that Cueball reluctantly agreed with Ponytail's statement when he actually did the opposite, but his hesitation suggests she's correct. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:21, 5 October 2018 (UTC)

The presence of White Hat is a little mysterious here because he doesn't have any lines. What could be going on? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.226.143|172.69.226.143]] 07:41, 5 October 2018 (UTC)
: He was just waiting for the next comic to start :) [[User:Hawthorn|Hawthorn]] ([[User talk:Hawthorn|talk]]) 15:46, 5 October 2018 (UTC)

Why is there a six paragraph diversion at the end of this explanation? This may be tangentially relevant, but not enough for an explanation that eclipses the size of the rest of the actual comic explanation. Consider removing it or boiling it down to one paragraph on the general topic with a link. I prefer removing it because the comic doesn't make it's own connection to a wider issue.

2048: Curve-Fitting

2018-09-30T01:33:27Z

172.68.189.181: /* Connecting lines */

{{comic
| number = 2048
| date = September 19, 2018
| title = Curve-Fitting
| image = curve_fitting.png
| titletext = Cauchy-Lorentz: "Something alarmingly mathematical is happening, and you should probably pause to Google my name and check what field I originally worked in."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Please edit the explanation below and only mention here why it isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

An illustration of several plots of the same data with {{w|Curve fitting|curves fitted}} to the points, paired with conclusions that you might draw about the person who made them. These data, when plotted on an X/Y graph, appear to have a general upward trend, but the data is far too noisy, with too few data points, to clearly suggest any specific growth pattern. In such a case, many different mathematical and statistical models ''could'' be presented as roughly fitting the data, but none of them fits well enough to compellingly represent the data.

When modeling such a problem statistically, much of the work of a data scientist or statistician is knowing which fitting method is most appropriate for the data in question. Here we see various hypothetical scientists or statisticians each applying their own interpretations to the exact same data, and the comic mocks each of them for their various personal biases or other assorted excuses. In general, the researcher will specify the form of an equation for the line to be drawn, and an algorithm will produce the actual line.

Nonetheless scientists work much more seriously on the reliability of their assumptions by giving a value for the {{w|Standard deviation|standard deviation}} represented by the Greek letter sigma σ or the Latin letter s as a measure to quantify the amount of variation of the data points against the presented ''best fit''. If the σ-value isn't good enough an interpretation based on a specific fit wouldn't be accepted by the science community.

Since [[Randall]] gives no hint about the nature of the used data set - same in each graph - any fitting presented doesn't make any sense. The graphs could represent a star map, the votes for the latest elected presidents, or your recent invoices on power consumption. This comic just exaggerates various methods on interpreting data, but without the knowledge of the matter in the background nothing makes any sense.

===Linear===
[[File:Anscombe's quartet 3.svg|thumb|200px|Different data sets result in the same regression.]]
<math>f(x) = mx + b</math>

{{w|Linear regression}} is the most basic form of regression; it tries to find the straight line that best approximates the data. As it's the simplest, most widely taught form of regression, and in general derivable function are locally well approximated by a straight line, it's usually the first and most trivial attempt of fit.

The picture to the right shows how totally different data sets can result into the same line. It's obvious that some more basics about the nature of the data must be used to understand if this simple line really does make sense.

The comment below the graph ''"Hey, I did a regression."'' refers to the fact that this is just the easiest way of fitting data into a curve.

===Quadratic===
<math>f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c</math>

{{w|Polynomial regression|Quadratic fit}} (i.e. fitting a parabola through the data) is the lowest grade polynomial that can be used to fit data through a curved line; if the data exhibits clearly "curved" behavior (or if the experimenter feels that its growth should be more than linear), a parabola is often the first, easiest, stab at fitting the data.

The comment below the graph ''"I wanted a curved line, so I made one with math."'' suggests that a quadratic regression is used when straight lines no longer satisfy the researcher, but he still wants to use simple math expression. Quadratic correlations like this are mathematically valid and one of the simplest kind of curve in math, but this curve doesn't appear to satisfy the data any better than does simple, linear regression.

===Logarithmic===
[[File:Logarithm_plots.png|thumb|200px|Common logarithm functions.]]
<math>f(x) = a\log_b(x) + c</math>

A {{w|Logarithm|logarithmic}} curve growths slower on higher values, but still grows without bound to infinity rather than approaching a horizontal {{w|asymptote}}. The small ''b'' in the formula represents the base which is in most cases ''{{w|e (mathematical constant)|e}}'', 10, or 2. If the data presumably does approach a horizontal asymptote then this fit isn't an effective method to explain the nature of the data.

The comment below the graph ''"Look, it's tapering off!"'' builds up the impression that the data diminishes while under this fit it's still growing to infinity, only much slower than a linear regression does.

===Exponential===
[[File:Exponential.svg|thumb|200px|Exponential growth (green) compared to other functions.]]
<math>f(x) = a\cdot b^x + c</math>

An {{w|Exponential growth|exponential curve}}, on the contrary, is typical of a phenomenon whose growth gets rapidly faster and faster - a common case is a process that generates stuff that contributes to the process itself, think bacteria growth or compound interest.

The logarithmic and exponential interpretations could very easily be fudged or engineered by a researcher with an agenda (such as by taking a misleading subset or even outright lying about the regression), which the comic mocks by juxtaposing them side-by-side on the same set of data.

The comment below the graph ''"Look, it's growing uncontrollably!"'' gives an other frivolous statement suggesting something like chaos. Also this even faster growth is well defined and has no asymptote at both axes.

===LOESS===
A {{w|Local regression|LOESS fit}} doesn't use a single formula to fit all the data, but approximates data points locally using different polynomials for each "zone" (weighting differently data points as they get further from it) and patching them together. As it has much more degrees of freedom compared to a single polynomial, it generally "fits better" to any data set, although it is generally impossible to derive any strong, "clean" mathematical correlation from it - it is just a nice smooth line that approximates well the data points, with a good degree of rejection from outliers.

The comment below the graph ''"I'm sophisticated, not like those bumbling polynomial people."'' emphasis this more complicated interpretation but without a simple mathematical description it's not much helpful to find academic descriptions on the underlying matter.

===Linear, No Slope===
<math>f(x) = c</math>

Apparently, the person making this line figured out pretty early on that their data analysis was turning into a scatter plot, and wanted to escape their personal stigma of scatter plots by drawing an obviously false regression line on top of it. Alternatively, they were hoping the data would be flat, and are trying to pretend that there's no real trend to the data by drawing a horizontal trend line.

The comment below the graph ''"I'm making a scatter plot but I don't want to."'' is probably done by a student who isn't happy with its choice of field of study.

===Logistic===
[[File:Logistic-curve.svg|thumb|200px|A standard logistic function between the values ''0'' and ''1''.]]
The {{w|Logistic regression|logistic regression}} is taken when a variable can take binary results such as "0" and "1" or "old" and "young".

The curve provides a smooth, S-shaped transition curve between two flat intervals (like "0" and "1").

The comment below the graph ''"I need to connect these two lines, but my first idea didn't have enough math."'' implies the experimenter just wants to find a mathematically-respectable way to link two flat lines.

===Confidence Interval===
Not a type of curve fitting, but a method of depicting the predictive power of a curve.

Providing a confidence interval over the graph shows the uncertainty of the acquired data, thus acknowledging the uncertain results of the experiment, and showing the will not to "cheat" with "easy" regression curves.

The comment below the graph ''"Listen, science is hard. But I'm a serious person doing my best."'' is just an honest statement about this uncertainty.

===Piecewise===
Mapping different curves to different segments of the data. This is a legitimate strategy, but the different segments should be meaningful, such as if they were pulled from different populations.

This kind of fit would arise naturally in a study based on a regression discontinuity design. For instance, if students who score below a certain cutoff must take remedial classes, the line for outcomes of those below the cutoff would reasonably be separate from the one for outcomes above the cutoff; the distance between the end of the two lines could be considered the effect of the treatment, under certain assumptions. This kind of study design is used to investigate causal theories, where mere correlation in observational data is not enough to prove anything. Thus, the associated text would be appropriate; there is a theory, and data that might prove the theory is hard to find.

One notable time this is used is when a researcher studying housing economics is trying to identify housing submarkets. The assumption is that if two proposed markets are truly different, they will be better described using two different regression functions than if one were to be used.

The additional curved lines visible in the graph are the kind of confidence intervals you'd get from a simple OLS regression if the standard assumptions were valid. In the case of two separate regressions, it would be surprising if all those assumptions (that is, i.i.d. Normal residuals around an underlying perfectly-linear function) were in fact valid for each part, especially if the slopes are not equal.

A classical example in physics are the different theories to explain the black body radiation at the end of the 19th century. The {{w|Wien approximation}} was good for small wavelengths while the {{w|Rayleigh–Jeans law}} worked for the larger scales (large wavelength means low frequency and thus low energy.) But there was a gap in the middle which was filled by the {{w|Planck's law}} in 1900.

The comment below the graph ''"I have a theory, and this is the only data I could find."'' is a bit ambiguous because there are many data points ignored. Without an explanation why only a subset of the data is used this isn't a useful interpretation at all.

===Connecting lines===
This is often used to smooth gaps in measurements. A simple example is the weather temperature which is often measured in distinct intervals. When the intervals are high enough it's safe to assume that the temperature didn't change that much between them and connecting the data points by lines doesn't distort the real situation in many cases.

The comment below the graph ''"I clicked 'Smooth Lines' in {{w|Microsoft Excel|Excel}}."'' refers to the well known spreadsheet application from {{w|Microsoft Office}}. Like other spreadsheet applications it has the feature to visualize data from a table into a graph by many ways. "Smooth Lines" is a setting meant for use on a {{w|line graph}}, a graph in which one axis represents time; as it simply joins up every point rather than finding a sensible line, it is not suitable for regression.

===Ad-Hoc Filter===
Drawing a bunch of different lines by hand, keeping in only the data points perceived as "good". Not really useful except for marketing purposes.

The comment below the graph ''"I had an idea for how to clean up the data. What do you think?"'' admits that in fact the data is whitewashed and tightly focused to a result the presenter wants to show.

===House of Cards===
Not a real method, but a common consequence of misapplication of statistical methods: a curve can be generated that fits the data extremely well, but immediately becomes absurd as soon as one glances outside the training data sample range, and your analysis comes crashing down "like a house of cards". This is a type of ''overfitting''. In other words, the model may do quite well for (approximately) {{w|Interpolation|interpolating}} between values in the sample range, but not extend at all well to {{w|Extrapolation|extrapolating}} values outside that range.

''Note:'' Exact polynomial fitting, a fit which gives the unique <math>(n-1)</math>th degree polynomial through <math>n</math> points, often display this kind of behaviour.

The comment below the graph ''"As you can see, this model smoothly fits the- wait no no don't extend it AAAAAA!!"'' refers to a curve which fits the data points relatively well within the graph's boundaries, but beyond those bounds fails to match at all.

The name is also a reference to the TV show ''{{w|House of Cards (U.S. TV series)|House of Cards}}'' ("WAIT NO, NO, DON'T EXTEND IT!").

===Cauchy-Lorentz (title text)===
{{w|Cauchy_distribution|Cauchy-Lorentz}} is a continuous probability distribution which does not have an expected value or a defined variance. This means that the law of large numbers does not hold and that estimating e.g. the sample mean will diverge (be all over the place) the more data points you have. Hence very troublesome (mathematically alarming).

Since so many different models can fit this data set at first glance, Randall may be making a point about how if a data set is sufficiently messy, you can read any trend you want into it, and the trend that is chosen may say more about the researcher than about the data. This is a similar sentiment to [[1725: Linear Regression]], which also pokes fun at dubious trend lines on scatterplots.

A brief Google search reveals that Augustin-Louis Cauchy originally worked as a junior engineer in a managerial position. Upon his acceptance to the Académie des Sciences in March 1816, many of his peers expressed outrage. Despite his early work in "mere" engineering, Cauchy is widely regarded as one of the founding influences in the rigorous study of calculus & accompanying proofs.

Alternately, the title-text could be implying that the person who applied the Cauchy-Lorentz curve-fitting method may not be well qualified to the task assigned.

==Transcript==
:'''Curve-Fitting Methods'''
:and the messages they send

:[In a single frame twelve scatter plots with unlabeled x- and y-axes are shown. Each plot consists of the same data-set of approximately thirty points located all over the plot but slightly more distributed around the diagonal. Every plot shows in red a different fitting method which is labeled on top in gray.]

:[The first plot shows a line starting at the left bottom above the x-axis rising towards the points to the right.]
:Linear
:"Hey, I did a regression."

:[The second plot shows a curve falling slightly down and then rising up to the right.]
:Quadratic
:"I wanted a curved line, so I made one with math."

:[At the third plot the curve starts near the left bottom and increases more and more less to the right.]
:Logarithmic
:"Look, it's tapering off!"

:[The fourth plot shows a curve starting near the left bottom and increases more and more steeper towards the right.]
:Exponential
:"Look, it's growing uncontrollably!"

:[The fifth plot uses a fitting to match many points. It starts at the left bottom, increases, then decreases, then rapidly increasing again, and finally reaching a plateau.]
:LOESS
:"I'm sophisticated, not like those bumbling polynomial people."

:[The sixth plot simply shows a line above but parallel to the x-axis.]
:Linear, no slope
:"I'm making a scatter plot but I don't want to."

:[At plot #7 starts at a plateau above the x-axis, then increases, and finally reaches a higher plateau.]
:Logistic
:"I need to connect these two lines, but my first idea didn't have enough Math."

:[Plot #8 shows two red lines embedding most points and the area between is painted as a red shadow.]
:Confidence interval
:"Listen, science is hard. But I'm a serious person doing my best."

:[Plot #9 shows two not connected lines, one at the lower left half, and one higher at the right. Both have smaller curved lines in light red above and below.]
:Piecewise
:"I have a theory, and this is the only data I could find."

:[The plot at the left bottom shows a line connecting all points from left to right, resulting in a curve going many times up and down.]
:Connecting lines
:"I clicked 'Smooth Lines' in Excel."

:[The next to last plot shows a echelon form, connecting a few real and some imaginary points.]
:Ad-Hoc filter
:"I had an idea for how to clean up the data. What do you think?"

:[The last plot shows a wave with increasing peak values. Finally the plot of the wave is continued beyond the x- and y-axis borders.]
:House of Cards
:"As you can see, this model smoothly fits the- ''wait no no don't extend it AAAAAA!!''"

==Trivia==
*This is the comic 2048, or 211. In addition to being the name of a popular app referenced in [[1344: Digits]], this is an extremely round number in binary (100,000,000,0002). [[1000: 1000 Comics]] pointed out that comic 1024 would be a round number, but there were not any comics noting 2048.

*This comic is similar to [[977: Map Projections]] which also uses a scientific method not commonly thought about by the general public to determine specific characteristics of one's personality and approach to science.

*Regressions have been the subject of several previous comics. [[1725: Linear Regression]] was about linear regressions on uncorrelated or poorly correlated data. [[1007: Sustainable]], [[1204: Detail]] and [[1281: Minifigs]] depict linear regressions on data that was actually logistic, leading to bizarre extrapolations. [[605: Extrapolating]] shows a line extrapolating from just two data points.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Scatter plots]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Science]]

2037: Supreme Court Bracket

2018-09-01T08:19:56Z

172.68.189.181: /* Explanation */ We had the same explaination twice

{{comic
| number = 2037
| date = August 24, 2018
| title = Supreme Court Bracket
| image = supreme_court_bracket.png
| titletext = My bracket was busted in the first round; I had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final, probably in a case over who gets to annex Rhode Island.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Each court case needs its own explanation, preferably a small paragraph instead of a sentence in parentheses. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The {{w|Supreme Court of the United States}} is the highest federal court of the United States. A {{w|Bracket (tournament)|tournament bracket}} is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. US Supreme Court cases are typically titled as Petitioner versus Respondent. To spoof this, [[Randall]] has put sixteen famous Supreme Court cases into a tournament bracket, as though they were games in the first round of a single-elimination tournament, and that the winners of the 16 listed court cases will somehow file against each other and then again until the final winner is selected. This is similar to college basketball's {{w|NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament|March Madness}}, complete with a ranking bracket. "Sweet 16" in the context of a tournament refers to the stage in a tournament where 16 competitors remain. This comic's concept is thus a word play on "court" (court of law v. basketball court).

The cases are:
====Marbury v. ''Madison'' (winner), 1803====
The case {{w|Marbury v. Madison|Marbury v. Madison}} declared a provision of the {{w|Judiciary Act of 1789}} unconstitutional, thus preventing several late-term appointments by outgoing President {{w|John Adams}} from being seated under incoming President {{w|Thomas Jefferson}}. More importantly, the ruling established the principle of {{w|judicial review}} by which the Supreme Court can overturn, on the basis of unconstitutionality, laws passed by {{w|United States Congress|Congress}} and signed into law by the {{w|President of the United States|President}}. For this reason it is considered the single most important decision in American constitutional law.

====''McCulloch'' (winner) v. Maryland, 1819====
The case {{w|McCulloch v. Maryland|McCulloch v. Maryland}} established a broad interpretation of the "necessary and proper" clause, specifically finding that Congress could incorporate a Bank of the United States because the purpose was to help carry out Congress' explicit powers under Article I, section 8.

====''Gibbons'' (winner) v. Ogden, 1824====
The case {{w|Gibbons v. Ogden|Gibbons v. Ogden}} established that interstate commerce is regulated by the U.S. Congress according to the U.S. Constitution, that interstate navigation is fundamental to interstate commerce, and that therefore the power to regulate interstate navigation in this way rests with the U.S. Congress, not with any state legislature.

On 01 March 1824, the US Supreme Court decided in favor of Thomas Gibbons in his appeal of a case brought against him by Aaron Ogden in an attempt to prevent Gibbons from operating steamboats to transport goods and passengers between New York City, New York and Elizabethtown, New Jersey. The US Supreme Court decision reversed a prior injunction against Gibbons issued by a New York State court deciding that Ogden held exclusive navigational rights by way of having licensed them from two men to whom the New York State Legislature had granted the navigation rights in several acts between 1798 and 1807.

====''Near'' (winner) v. Minnesota, Jan 30, 1930 – Jun 1, 1931====
The case {{w|Near v. Minnesota|Near v. Minnesota}} is a landmark United States Supreme Court decision that found that prior restraints on publication violate freedom of the press as protected under the {{w|First Amendment to the United States Constitution}}, a principle that was applied to free speech generally in subsequent jurisprudence. The Court ruled that a Minnesota law that targeted publishers of "malicious" or "scandalous" newspapers violated the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.

Noteworthy it was later a key precedent in {{w|New York Times Co. v. United States}} (1971), in which the court ruled against the Nixon administration's attempt to enjoin publication of the Pentagon Papers.

====''NLRB'' (winner) v. Jones & Laughlin, 1937====
{{w|NLRB v. Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp.|National Labor Relations Board v Jones & Laughlin Steel Corporation}} was a US labor law case. It declared that the {{w|National Labor Relations Act of 1935}} was constitutional. It effectively preserved the {{w|New Deal}}, which was being pursued by US President {{w|Franklin D. Roosevelt|Roosevelt}} in reaction to the {{w|Great Depression}}. Previous Supreme Court cases, unlike ''NLRB v. Jones & Laughlin'', had invalidated New Deal statutes.

====''Brown'' (winner) v. Board of Education, Dec 9, 1952 – May 17, 1954====
The case {{w|Brown v. Board of Education|Brown v. Board of Education}} the Court declared state laws establishing separate public schools for black and white students to be unconstitutional. It stated that "separate educational facilities are inherently unequal."

This ruling paved the way for the {{w|Civil rights movement|Civil Rights Movement}}. However, the decision did not spell out any sort of method for ending racial segregation in schools, and the Court's second decision in {{w|Brown v. Board of Education#Brown II|Brown II}} only ordered states to desegregate "with all deliberate speed."

====''Gideon'' (winner) v. Wainwright, 1963====
In the case {{w|Gideon v. Wainwright|'''Gideon''' v. Wainwright}} the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states are required under the {{w|Sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|Sixth Amendment}} to the U.S. Constitution to provide an attorney or lawyer to defendants in criminal cases who are unable to afford their own attorneys.

====''Griswold'' (winner) v. Connecticut, 1965====
In the case {{w|Griswold v. Connecticut}} (1965), the Court ruled that a statute barring {{w|Birth control|birth control}} to prevent pregnancy, also known as contraception, was unconstitutional, at least in its application to married couples, as there was an implicit right to privacy in the "penumbras" and "emanations" of other constitutional provisions. This ruling was used as precedent in {{w|Eisenstadt v. Baird}} (1972), which extended the right to unmarried couples, and in Roe v. Wade and Lawrence v. Texas (see below).

====''Miranda'' (winner) v. Arizona, 1966====
ToDo:{{w|Miranda v. Arizona|Miranda v. Arizona}}
(required police to inform suspects of their rights)

====''Loving'' (winner) v. Virginia, April 10, 1967 - June 12, 1967====
In {{w|Loving v. Virginia}} the Supreme Court ruled that state laws prohibiting interracial marriage were unconstitutional, and were struck down. This decision was well ahead of public opinion; a Gallup poll (cited by [https://thinkprogress.org/public-support-for-same-sex-marriage-surpasses-support-for-interracial-marriage-in-1991-b29fa01c2cfa/ Think Progress]) conducted the following year showed only 20% in favor. This case was cited as precedent in Obergefell v. Hodges, listed below.

====''Roe'' (winner) v. Wade, January 22, 1973====
In {{w|Roe v. Wade}}, the Supreme Court ruled that a woman's right to privacy, balanced against the state's interest in limiting {{w|abortion}}s, allowed women to undergo abortions in the first and second trimesters and allowed states the right to forbid third-trimester abortions.

====''United States'' (winner) v. Nixon, July 8, 1974 - July 24, 1974====
ToDo: {{w|United States v. Nixon|United States v. Nixon}}
(ordered president Nixon to turn over Watergate tapes)

====''Bush'' (winner) v. Gore, December 12, 2000====
ToDo: {{w|Bush v. Gore|Bush v. Gore}}
(disputed 2000 Presidential election)

====''Lawrence'' (winner) v. Texas, June 26, 2003====
ToDo:{{w|Lawrence v. Texas|Lawrence v. Texas}}
(invalidated sodomy laws and made same-sex sexual activity legal in every U.S. state and territory)

====''Massachusetts'' (winner) v. EPA, April 2, 2007====
ToDo:{{w|Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency|Massachusetts v. EPA}}
(decided that the state of Massachusetts has standing to sue the EPA for not doing enough against global warming)

====''Obergefell'' (winner) v. Hodges, June 26, 2015====
ToDo:{{w|Obergefell v. Hodges|Obergefell v. Hodges}}
(requiring government recognition of same-sex marriage)

The title text refers to a practice of filling out a March Madness bracket, predicting a winner for each game up to the championship. A bracket is "busted" when the result of a game is not as predicted; because future matchups depend on previous results, the whole bracket is worthless at that point. Randall "had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final", predicting both parties would win all previous rounds and advance to the final game/case. Because Connecticut lost its first-round case to Griswold, his bracket is busted in the first round.

In the second part of the title text, Randall writes: "I had Massachusetts v. Connecticut in the final, probably in a case over who gets to annex Rhode Island." In fact, there actually was a Supreme Court case ''Massachusetts v. Connecticut'' (summary at [https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/282/660/ Justia.com], full text at [https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=17012735467934830012&q=Connecticut+v.+Massachusetts&hl=en&as_sdt=2006 Google Scholar]) dealing with water rights on the Connecticut River, which flows between the two states.

==Transcript==
:[A tournament bracket tree is shown with 16 participants each on the left and right side. From both sides toward the middle the brackets reduce to eight, then four, two, and one line where the latter join to a rectangle in the middle.]

:[Left side:]
:Marbury - Madison
:McCulloch - Maryland
:Gibbons - Ogden
:Near - Minnesota
:NLRB - Jones & Laughlin
:Brown - Board of Education
:Gideon - Wainwright
:Griswold - Connecticut

:[Right side:]
:Miranda - Arizona
:Loving - Virginia
:Roe - Wade
:United States - Nixon
:Bush - Gore
:Lawrence - Texas
:Massachusetts - EPA
:Obergefell - Hodges

:[Caption below the frame:]
:Now that we've finished the round of 32, the Supreme Court will be moving on to the Sweet 16.

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:803: Airfoil

2018-07-05T17:01:28Z

172.68.189.181:

Since gases are unique in the way they convert pressure change to heat or cold, none of the above can be true. The schema shows more columns of air under the wing than pass above. How come?
We know that an actual wing pulls air down from the layers above rather than bludgeon the air in front of it.

What happens is that vortices are engendered. Wing design is all about getting them past the control sections (the major problem to aircraft design in the 1940's.)

[[User:Weatherlawyer| I used Google News BEFORE it was clickbait]] ([[User talk:Weatherlawyer|talk]]) 01:15, 26 January 2015 (UTC)

It is a convention in fluid dynamics that the flow always comes from the left. Nobody working in this field would ever draw a picture with the flow coming from the right side. So this is a hint by its own that the image may be wrong.

Regarding the last comment: The image is from wikipedia. The original comment tells us that the wing influences the flow even at a great distance. The flow at the top is still a lot faster than below the wing.

[[Special:Contributions/108.162.231.68|108.162.231.68]] 21:01, 3 June 2015 (UTC)

My high school math teacher said there were three ways for a teacher to say "I don't know" -- "I don't know", "It's beyond the scope of the course", and "You wouldn't understand it if I told you." So, whenever we asked a question like the one in the comic, he'd say "It's beyond the scope of the course, and you wouldn't understand it if I told you anyway! Dumb kids!" We loved that guy. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.181|172.68.189.181]] 17:01, 5 July 2018 (UTC)

Talk:1931: Virtual Assistant

2017-12-20T22:36:53Z

172.68.189.181:

I just set up Siri to do this: https://youtu.be/B32YLUa6bUg [[User:DPS2004|DPS2004'); DROP TABLE users;--]] ([[User talk:DPS2004|talk]]) 15:54, 20 December 2017 (UTC)

The transcript has to follow the common layout as used in nearly all former comics. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 16:22, 20 December 2017 (UTC)

I feel like the explanation for this one missed the masturbation reference - the sounds of the sink and the zipper? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.189.181|172.68.189.181]] 22:36, 20 December 2017 (UTC)