3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

2024-11-04T20:45:48Z

172.68.245.184: rewrote first sentence (comic never mentions election)

{{comic
| number = 3007
| date = November 4, 2024
| title = Probabilistic Uncertainty
| image = probabilistic_uncertainty_2x.png
| imagesize = 474x385px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = "One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a HOPEFUL BOT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is about the difficulty of dealing with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the upcoming American election. The odds of the election as shown by many media sources are close to 50/50, which is the third scenario shown in the comic.

{| class="wikitable"
!Odds
!How to think about it?
!Explanation
|-
| Good outcome more likely || Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor ||
|-
| Bad outcome more likely || Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified ||
|-
| Precisely 50/50 || ????? N/A ???? || {{w|N/A}} stands for "not available", "no answer", "not applicable" or "not assessed".
|}
The title text is a joke about emotional spirals - naturally, the emotional spiral experts would be emotionally spiralling. Or, they could be experts that are in an emotional spiral.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
[A table titled "Coping With Probablistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emptionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face.]

Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75%.
Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that he bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".

Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25%.
Row 2, column 2: "Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified".

Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half.
Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"
{{comic discussion}}

Talk:1659: Tire Swing

2024-08-20T22:13:20Z

172.68.245.184:

my explanation of the comic, which was sort-of obsoleted by someones edit:
<blockquote>Girl1 and Girls2 just finished making a tire swing. They did not use a discarded tire but rather stole one, even fighting the rightful owner turning the theft into a robbery.</blockquote>

the women do not look like Megan and Hair Bun Girl to me, are they new?
sorry for commenting here, but I do not have rights to create a new page, which seems to be necessary for posting the fire comment. Will move once the comment section is created.
I think they are Thelma and Louise (from the movie) given the looks of their hair {{unsigned|Chichak|March 23, 2016}}

I think they're children [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:33, 23 March 2016 (UTC)

:The first one certainly looks like Hair Bun, but the second one (which in in the explanation is presented as Megan) has a somewhat curly hair. Could she be another character, perhaps? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.218.166|108.162.218.166]] 17:05, 23 March 2016 (UTC)

::As the tire comes from a truck and it's diameter is more than half the height of these small girls they are definitely kids (not that Randall could not have made adults make a swing as like in [[150]]). Also this makes it much more funny that they both stole a car and beat up an angry adult. And now they are going all environmental after wards. So they are not Megan (which looks nothing like a curly haired girl) and also not Hair Bun Girl as it is defined that these characters are adults. There are many stories using kids and they will never represent Cueball, Megan or Ponytail etc. Those with hats are for instance never drawn small! Have thus corrected the explanation. But it still seems to miss much more on the environmental issue which is the subject/point of the comic if not the joke --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:19, 23 March 2016 (UTC)

:::Actually, those with hats have been depicted as children before! For example, comics "Rubber and Glue" and "Thumb War". Also, I'm kind of new to ExplainXKCD, so I don't really know how to make links to the comics. If anyone could go through and link them, that would be great!

:She looks like the girl in #1058, who is also a child. I feel like she's been in multiple strips but I didn't see a tag for her anywhere. {{unsigned ip|162.158.56.29}}
::The girl in [[1058: Old-Timers]] has two buns compared to only one for most other "girl" or women with any hair buns. So in that respect the is not quite like the one here or the one in [[1352: Cosmologist on a Tire Swing]] mentioned already below (and now in the explanation). There are several comics with kids, but so far there have been no category for neither kids nor any specific kids. Maybe there should be? --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:58, 25 March 2016 (UTC)

Maybe they got the truck from Black Hat's garage? [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 15:34, 23 March 2016 (UTC)
:Then they would have lost the fight: [[433: Journal 5]]! --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:22, 23 March 2016 (UTC)

I have yet to use a tire swing that was made from a worn tire (worn by the road not by swinging). From my experience, expired tires used by automobiles typically have sharp metal protruding from the rubber. This would make a dangerous tire swing. I thought landscaping (rubber mulch) and playgrounds was the preferred recycling method for used tires?--[[User:R0hrshach|R0hrshach]] ([[User talk:R0hrshach|talk]]) 15:35, 23 March 2016 (UTC)
:I think you are correct. We have one for our kids (though it sucked and we took it down again) and that was a brand new tire, but not one I think would be suitable for any car though. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 17:22, 23 March 2016 (UTC)
::Not sure how that's relevant, would you explain for me? [[User:Mikemk|Mikemk]] ([[User talk:Mikemk|talk]]) 00:42, 24 March 2016 (UTC)
:::I think it's relevant because the previous post was about whether tire swings were made out of used tires. You can make them out of used tires if you use good ones. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.172|108.162.237.172]] 04:44, 24 March 2016 (UTC)
:::: interesting, I have never seen a tire swing made from a new tire! The steel at the bead can wear through, you just don't use one of those for your swing. I question the part of the explanation about the tire being weak. Tires have very strong bands in them, that's why they don't decompose. The rope for your swing will rot away 10 times, and the tree will grow old and die, before the tire gives out and breaks. [[User:Miamiclay|Miamiclay]] ([[User talk:Miamiclay|talk]]) 05:53, 24 March 2016 (UTC)
:::::Have reworded so it is not stated that it is always a new tire. But the one we bought was, and would probably bot be useful as a tire for a car. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:51, 25 March 2016 (UTC)

It is debatable which is better for the environment given global warming: leaving the tire to sit in a landfill, thus locking up the carbon in it for the lifespan of the rubber (certainly hundreds if not thousands of years in a landfill) vs burning it, thus releasing the carbon into the atmosphere and making global warming worse.[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 14:30, 24 March 2016 (UTC)
:Put this in the explanation. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:51, 25 March 2016 (UTC)

;Similarity to Calvin and Hobbes
A very similar Calvin and Hobbes cartoon came up on [http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2016/03/18 gocomics.com just last week]. I don't think Randall would have copied it intentionally, but I suspect some chain of suggestion led to re-use of this idea. [[User:Foobarbecue|Foobarbecue]] ([[User talk:Foobarbecue|talk]]) 15:02, 24 March 2016 (UTC)
:Great thanks have put it in the explanation --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:49, 25 March 2016 (UTC)
;Connections
Looks to me like the same girls as we saw in [[1352]]: Cosmologist on a Tire Swing. But I'm not sure what, if anything, the significance of that is. -- (xtifr) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.252.149|162.158.252.149]] 08:39, 25 March 2016 (UTC)
:Well only one girl in that comic, but she looks like the girl with the hair bun The cosmologist is clearly adult and is also correctly listed as Megan. But great with the ref, thanks, have put it in the explanation --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:49, 25 March 2016 (UTC)

;Hair Bun Girl now called Hairbun
There have for some time been an attempt to make a '''[[explain_xkcd:Community_portal/Proposals#Rename_Hair_Bun_Girl|debate]]''' regarding the name of [[Hair Bun Girl]], as a user wished to drop the girl and change to simply [[Hairbun]] along the lines of the name of [[Ponytail]]. After his comic was released the user decided to change the name, and this is why she now goes by the name Hairbun. If anyone has any feelings towards this (also positive) please add to the debate, which never really got started. I put this comment here, as this was the last comic released at the time of the change (and Hair Bun Girls name had even been used in the explanation though she is not part of the comic, which would be the last time before the change occurred). --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 11:04, 25 March 2016 (UTC)

;Toxicity
Used tires are not a good choice for making swings as they're highly toxic and cancerogen. Former ideas of making tables, shoe-soles or swings out of them are highly discouraged. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.87.35|162.158.87.35]]

;same girl as 1370
The first girl looks like the teenager in [[1370: President]] --[[User:HCanon|HCanon]] ([[User talk:HCanon|talk]]) 07:30, 12 April 2018 (UTC)

Talk:2966: Exam Numbers

2024-07-31T19:26:02Z

172.68.245.184:

pre-algebra: 4, calculus: pi^2 / 4 (about 2.467), physics: cosmological constant: depends on how you measure it [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.48|162.158.167.48]] 18:11, 31 July 2024 (UTC)

Game theory: -5x10⁶ (maybe helpful, maybe not... just be thankful I didn't include an ''i'' factor in there somewhere...) [[Special:Contributions/172.70.162.185|172.70.162.185]] 18:20, 31 July 2024 (UTC)

Could somebody reformat all the math here in whatever LaTeX plugin this wiki uses? --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.222.102|162.158.222.102]] 18:35, 31 July 2024 (UTC)
:Probably not, because the MathML here is broken. But, also, nothing I see requires anything particularly complicated, it can all stay in fairly straightforward (standardly formatted) text. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.224|141.101.98.224]] 18:44, 31 July 2024 (UTC)
I had to look up "TREE(3)." Seriousness aside, I think the largest number would be the astrological sign 1 that has its end_points_ as galaxy clusters.[[Special:Contributions/172.68.245.184|172.68.245.184]] 19:26, 31 July 2024 (UTC)

explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

Talk:1659: Tire Swing

Talk:2966: Exam Numbers