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1937: IATA Airport Abbreviations

2021-06-02T23:37:21Z

172.69.35.185: /* Explanation */ more cleanup

{{comic
| number = 1937
| date = January 3, 2018
| title = IATA Airport Abbreviations
| image = iata_airport_abbreviations.png
| titletext = IATA stands for International AirporT Abbreviation.
}}

==Explanation==
This comic is making fun of the three-letter codes assigned to mostly all {{w|IATA airport code|airports}} in the world. These codes are overseen by the {{w|International Air Transport Association|IATA (International Air Transport Association)}}. Some airport codes are very intuitive, taking letters from the city name (e.g., DEN for {{w|Denver International Airport|Denver}}). Other codes are somewhat intuitive, taking a letter or two from the nearby city name but adding an additional letter (e.g., LAX for {{w|Los Angeles International Airport|Los Angeles}}). Other codes make seemingly no sense at all (e.g., ORD for {{w|O'Hare International Airport|Chicago's O'Hare International}}, due to it formerly being named Orchard Field). In many cases, the airport codes appear to have been chosen (or invented) because they are also common abbreviations and acronyms. [[Randall]] is obviously confused by these codes, replying to his friend that he definitely knows what those mean without googling, basically revealing that he used Google to search for the codes, and has created a list for us to memorize. In fact, this list is complete nonsense, with some of the "airports" mentioned not even existing, and the existing airports are all paired with the wrong codes, except for {{w|Huntsville International Airport|Huntsville}} (HSV) and {{w|Toronto Pearson International Airport|Toronto Pearson}} (YYZ).

If we use the table provided, Randall's friend is flying into {{w|Edwards Air Force Base}} and then "down to whatever" -- not a real flight.{{Citation needed}} In actuality, the friend is flying into {{w|Newark Liberty International Airport|Newark}} tonight and {{w|Detroit Metropolitan Airport|Detroit}} tomorrow.

The title text is a pun about the acronym ''IATA'', stating it stands for '''I'''nternational '''A'''irpor'''T''' '''A'''bbreviation. This is as wrong as almost everything else here, because the real ''International Air Transport Association'' is not an organization only responsible for abbreviations in aviation. This acronym also leads to some redundancy in the title by making the true title of the comic be "International Airport Abbreviations Airport Abbreviations."

This comic could be inspired by the [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/02/indian-man-charged-over-airport-bomb-threat-says-phone-operator-misheard recent news] about an Indian businessman charged with making a bomb threat at a Mumbai airport claiming he was misheard by a telephone operator while asking for the {{w|Chhatrapati_Shivaji_International_Airport|BOM}} to {{w|Indira_Gandhi_International_Airport|DEL}} flight status.

It may also be a reference to tongue-in-cheek '[http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/1259621-internet-slang teen texting code]' explanations for older generations.

{| class="wikitable"
|'''IATA Code''' || '''Actual Assigned City/Airport''' || '''Description in the comic''' || '''Explanation'''
|-
| AMD || {{w|Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport|Ahmedabad}} (India) || {{w|Amsterdam }}|| Amsterdam is the capital of the Netherlands. Its airport (called {{w|Amsterdam Airport Schiphol|Schiphol}}) has the IATA code AMS. "AMD" is also an abbreviated name for "{{w|Advanced Micro Devices}}", a company that makes computer processors and graphics cards, among other products.
|-
| ANC || {{w|Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport|Anchorage}} (USA) || {{w|Ankh-Morpork}} || Ankh-Morpork is a fictional city-state featured in ''{{w|Discworld}}''. ANC is also an abbreviated name for the {{w|African National Congress}}.
|-
| ATL || {{w|Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport|Atlanta}} (USA) || Atalantë || Another name for J.R.R. Tolkien's fictional island of {{w|Númenor}} (which is in turn a reference to the sinking of {{w|Atlantis}}). This may also be an intentional misspelling of "Atlanta". ATL may also be an abbreviation for "above the line" - the area in an internet article or post containing the main content; as contrasted with BTL ("below the line") where readers' comments appear.
|-
| BAE || {{w|Barcelonnette – Saint-Pons Airfield|Barcelonnette}} (France) || {{w|Beijing}} || Beijing is the capital of China. {{w|Beijing Capital International Airport|Its airport}} has the IATA code PEK (probably from Peking, alternate former spelling of its name). {{w|BAE Systems}} is the world's second-largest defense contractor, while "{{w|Bae (word)|Bae}}" is a slang term meaning girlfriend, boyfriend, or significant other. Randall has presumably assigned this to Beijing as, when pronounced as a word, rather than an abbreviation, it resembles the first syllable.
|-
| BLT || {{w|Blackwater Airport|Blackwater}} (Australia) || {{w|Baltimore}} || A "{{w|BLT}}" is a bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich. Baltimore is served by two airports with the codes BWI and MTN.
|-
| BUF || {{w|Buffalo Niagara International Airport|Buffalo}} (USA) || {{w|Sunnydale}} || Sunnydale is a fictional California city that serves as the primary setting for ''{{w|Buffy the Vampire Slayer|'''Buf'''fy the Vampire Slayer}}''.
|-
| CLT || {{w|Charlotte Douglas International Airport|Charlotte}} (USA) || [CENSORED] || The censored word may be "{{w|clitoris}}". [[Randall]] has used this word in the comic before ([[243: Appropriate Term]]), but it is censored here for comic effect.
|-
| DFW || {{w|Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport|Dallas/Fort Worth}} (USA) || Down For Whatever || "Down for Whatever" is an expression used to indicate that one is okay with doing whatever one's friends are doing in a social situation, or whatever comes up during a social situation.
|-
| DTF || ''not assigned'' || {{w|Dartford}} || "DTF" is an abbreviation used to indicate "Down To Fuck". Dartford is a town in Kent, UK, about 10 miles SE of London. It does not have an airport. The nearest is probably {{w|London City Airport}}, LCY. The name also resembles a portmanteau of {{w|Dartmouth}} and {{w|Harvard}}, two prominent and well-known Ivy League universities; given the American context of the webcomic, Randall could also have been using "Dartford" as an ironic reference to an exclusive college.
|-
| DTW || {{w|Detroit Metropolitan Airport|Detroit}} (USA) || Down To Whatever || See "DFW". "Down to Whatever" could indicate that one is getting on a plane with the intention of being fine with whatever the plane's destination turns out to be.
|-
| DWI || ''not assigned'' || Delaware International || "DWI" is an abbreviation for "Driving While Intoxicated" or "Driving While Impaired." Randall notes in the ''{{w|What If?: Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions|what if?}}'' book that Delaware has no commercial airports. This entry is also a play on the nearby real airport BWI, {{w|Baltimore/Washington International Airport}}.
|-
| EWR || {{w|Newark Liberty International Airport|Newark}} (USA) || {{w|Edwards Air Force Base}} || Edwards Air Force Base (which has the IATA code EDW) is a United States Air Force installation north of Los Angeles in southern California. It is notable for its pivotal role in NASA spaceflight development.
|-
| FFS || ''not assigned'' || {{w|Flagstaff station|Flagstaff Station}} || "FFS" is an abbreviation for "For Fuck's Sake." "FLG" is the code for the Flagstaff, AZ airport. Wikipedia has a page titled "Flagstaff station" (lowercase 's'), which was a former Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway depot, and is now an Amtrak station. However, Amtrak calls the station simply "Flagstaff", without the word "station", on their station lists. Melbourne, Australia also has a {{w|Flagstaff railway station|Flagstaff station}}, which has station code "FGS".

|-
| FHQ || ''not assigned'' || FHQWHGADS || The string "fhqwhgads" appeared as the first part of the sender name in the email "[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lml_AKkhCVY i love you]" sent to Strong Bad in the {{w|Homestar Runner}} cartoons; Strong Bad ended up [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=votBDwhTu1E writing a song] dedicated to the "character", and, after this comic's release, Strong Bad's official Twitter account [https://twitter.com/StrongBadActual/status/948696499885694976 posted about the reference].
|-
| FYI || ''not assigned'' || Fayetteville || "FYI" often stands for "For Your Information". {{w|Fresno Yosemite International Airport}} has the code FAT for Fresno Air Terminal. {{w|Fayetteville}} is the name of many cities in the United States. {{w|Fayetteville, NC}} is the only Fayetteville served by airports: POB and FAY.
|-
| HGM || ''not assigned'' || Hogsmeade || {{w|Places_in_Harry_Potter#Hogsmeade|Hogsmeade}} is a fictional location in the ''{{w|Harry Potter}}'' series.
|-
| HSV || {{w|Huntsville International Airport|Huntsville}} (USA) || {{w|Huntsville, Alabama|Huntsville}} || This is one where Randall and the IATA agree. It is worth noting that the {{w|Marshall Space Flight Center|Marshall Space Flight Center}} and the {{w|U.S._Space_%26_Rocket_Center|U.S. Space & Rocket Center}} are both located in Huntsville and linked to NASA, which {{w|Randall_Munroe#NASA|Randall worked for}} prior to October 2006.
|-
| IAD || {{w|Washington Dulles International Airport|Washington (Dulles)}} (USA) || {{w|Boise Airport|Idaho (Boise)}} || IAD is the symbol for Dulles International Airport (which was originally "DIA" but it was felt that could be confused when hand-written with "DCA", the sign for nearby {{w|Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport}}). The Idaho Falls airport is IDA, while Idaho (Boise) is BOI; Randall probably chose Boise as it is the largest and best-known city in Idaho.
|-
| IUD || ''not assigned'' || Washington (Dulles) || An "IUD" is an {{w|Intrauterine device|intrauterine device}}, a form of birth control. The actual IATA code for Dulles is IAD (see above).
|-
| JFC || ''not assigned'' || {{w|Jefferson City}} || "JFC" is an abbreviation for "Jesus Fucking Christ." JFK is John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York's main airport and one of the most famous in the world. Jefferson City is the state capital of Missouri served by the JEF airport, and also the name of several other cities.
|-
| KUL || {{w|Kuala Lumpur International Airport|Kuala Lumpur}} (Malaysia) || {{w|Kingdom of Loathing}} || Kingdom of Loathing is an online, browser-based RPG. It contains an [http://kol.coldfront.net/thekolwiki/index.php/Elemental_International_Airport International Airport], previously lacking a three digit code. Kuala Lumpur is the capital city of Malaysia.
|-
| LAX || {{w|Los Angeles International Airport|Los Angeles}} (USA) || Las Angalas || "Las Angalas" is a "Los Angeles" with every vowel replaced with an "a" character. It's sometimes used as a joking nickname for "Los Angeles." The Frank Black song "Los Angeles" uses this pronunciation.
|-
| LOL || {{w|Derby Field|Lovelock}} (USA) || {{w|Louisville}} || "LOL" often stands for "Laughing Out Loud". {{w|Lovelock, Nevada|Lovelock}} is a city in the state of Nevada. Louisville is the largest city in the state of Kentucky. The latter is served by the LJC and the SDF airport.
|-
| MDW || {{w|Midway International Airport|Chicago (Midway)}} (USA) || {{w|Midway Atoll}} || Midway Atoll was the site of {{w|Battle of Midway|one of the most significant}} World War II Pacific naval battles and is the namesake of the Chicago airport. Its actual IATA code is MDY.
|-
| MIA || {{w|Miami International Airport|Miami}} (USA) || {{w|Colombo, Sri Lanka}} || M.I.A. is the stage name of a {{w|M.I.A. (rapper)|rapper of Sri Lankan heritage}}, although as a supporter of separatists from the north and east, where her family are from, she might not appreciate being associated with the southern capital. Colombo, Sri Lanka is served by three airports: CMB, RML (domestic) and BYV (domestic, seaplanes only). The use of MIA for Colombo may be a reference to the {{w|Columbo_(character)|fictional TV detective Columbo}}, whom one might have consulted in the case of a missing person. MIA also stands for "Missing In Action".
|-
| OMW || ''not assigned'' || {{w|Omaha}} || Eppley Airfield in East Omaha, Nebraska, has an IATA code of OMA. "OMW" is an abbreviation for "On My Way."
|-
| ORD || {{w|O'Hare International Airport|Chicago (O'Hare)}} (USA) || {{w|Orlando}} || O'Hare Airport was once known as {{w|O'Hare International Airport#World_War_II|Orchard Field Airport}}, hence ORD. Orlando is served by four airports: ORL, DWS, MCO and SFB.
|-
| PDX || {{w|Portland International Airport|Portland}} (USA) || Pordlanx || Consider how LAX has a random "X" at the end. And "ORD" is an actual IATA code. Randall messes with "Portland" here in much the same way.
|-
| PHL || {{w|Philadelphia International Airport|Philadelphia}} (USA) || {{w|Pittsburgh}} || Pittsburgh International Airport has a IATA code of PIT. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the two largest cities in Pennsylvania and are at opposite ends of the state, so Randall is teasing Pennsylvanians.
|-
| SAN || {{w|San Diego International Airport|San Diego}} (USA) || San Diego San Juan San Jose San Francisco San Antonio || San Diego International Airport ({{w|San Diego, California}}) has SAN; nearby airports include Montgomery Field (MYF), MCAS Miramar (NKX), NAS North Island (NZY), Brown Field (SDM), and Gillespie Field (SEE). There are several cities named San Juan or San Jose. Their airport codes are as follows: San Juan, Puerto Rico: SJU and SIG. San Juan, Argentina: UAQ. San Jose, California, USA: SJC. San Jose, Costa Rica: SJO. San Jose, Mexico: SJD. San Jose, Philippines: SJI San Francisco, CA has the airport code of SFO. San Antonio, TX has the airport code of SAT. Randall is perhaps commenting on the arbitrariness of assigning SAN to San Diego rather than any of the other cities starting with "San"; his plan to assign the code SAN to every place name beginning "San" would likely cause chaos for travelers.
|-
| SEA || {{w|Seattle–Tacoma International Airport|Seattle/Tacoma (Sea-Tac)}} (USA) || [Indicates Water Landing] || This is presumably a reference to the fact that "SEA" could be interpreted as "Sea". Unlike some other major airports (e.g., {{w|San Francisco International Airport}} and {{w|LaGuardia Airport}}), SeaTac is not actually on a major body of water, but missing the airport could still result in a water landing, as it is located only a few miles east of {{w|Puget Sound}} between the cities of Seattle and Tacoma, WA. Seattle has a water-landing-only airport on Lake Union run by Kenmore Air, but its IATA code is LKE. SEA is also a common abbreviation for {{w|Southeast Asia}}.
|-
| SMH || Sapmanga (Papua New Guinea) ||{{w|Smithfield}} || "SMH" often stands for "Shaking My Head". Sapmanga is a location in {{w|Papua New Guinea}}. There are various cities named Smithfield around the world, none of them having airports.
|-
| STL || {{w|St. Louis Lambert International Airport|St. Louis}} (USA) || {{w|Silent Hill}} || Silent Hill is a fictional city appearing in the series of video games and movies with the same name.
|-
| SWF || {{w|Stewart International Airport|Newburgh}} (USA) || {{w|Sherwood Forest}} || .swf is the file extension for ShockWave Flash files. "SWF" can also stand for "Single White Female" in personal ads. In legend, {{w|Sherwood Forest}} was the location of Robin Hood's hideout, and Doncaster Sheffield Airport (IATA DSA) was formerly called Robin Hood Airport.
|-
| TBA || {{w|Tabibuga}} (Papua New Guinea) || {{w|Tribeca}} || "TBA" often stands for "To Be Announced". Tabibuga is a location in {{w|Papua New Guinea}}. Tribeca (original styled TriBeCa) is an area in New York City, which does not have an airport. The closest airport to it is Downtown Manhattan Heliport (JRB). "TBA" is a similar indication of uncertainty to "TBC", which often stands for "To Be Confirmed".
|-
| TMI || {{w|Tumlingtar Airport| Tumlingtar}} (Nepal) || {{w|Turkmenistan}} International || "TMI" often stands for "Too Much Information". Tumlingtar is a city in Nepal. Turkmenistan is a country in Central Asia which has six airports: ASB, CRZ, KRW, MYP, TAZ and URL. None of them are called "Turkmenistan International", but KRW is called "Turkmenbashi International".
|-
| YYY || {{w|Mont-Joli Airport|Mont-Joli}} (Canada) || {{w|Toronto}} Downtown || {{w|Mont-Joli}} is a city in Quebec, Canada. The small airport in downtown Toronto is {{w|Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport}}, which has an actual IATA code of YTZ. This may be a play on the below designation for the larger Toronto airport, YYZ. It could also be Randall asking "why why why" some of these codes are so odd. Like YTZ, most airports in Canada have IATA code designations beginning with the letter Y, as many codes were created by adding the letter Y to preexisting two letter National Weather Station city designations.
|-
| YYZ || {{w|Toronto Pearson International Airport|Toronto}} (Canada) || {{w|Toronto Pearson International Airport|Toronto Pearson}} || This one is correct. The band Rush is from Toronto and named an instrumental song after the airport call sign. See {{w|YYZ (instrumental)}}.
|-
|}

==Transcript==

:[A list with abbreviations and their meaning is shown in two columns.]

:[On top left the header reads:]
:Confused by those airport abbreviations used by your friends who fly a lot?

:Just memorize this list!

:[On top right an iMessage conversation is shown:]
:[There is a text in grey, on the left:]
:I'm flying into EWR tonight, then DTW tomorrow.
:[Answer (in blue, two message bubbles on the right):]
:Ok, cool
:I definitely know what those mean without Googling

:[The list:]
:{| class="wikitable style=border:none;"|
|-
| AMD || Amsterdam
| TMI || Turkmenistan International
|-
| BAE || Beijing
| LAX || Las Angalas
|-
| ORD || Orlando
| EWR || Edwards Air Force Base
|-
| IAD || Idaho (Boise)
| PHL || Pittsburgh
|-
| JFC || Jefferson City
| SWF || Sherwood Forest
|-
| IUD || Washington Dulles
| KUL || Kingdom of Loathing
|-
| FYI || Fayetteville
| STL || Silent Hill
|-
| LOL || Louisville
| BUF || Sunnydale
|-
| ATL || Atalante
| TBA || Tribeca
|-
| HGM || Hogsmeade
| SMH || Smithfield
|-
| OMW || Omaha
| BLT || Baltimore
|-
| ANC || Ankh-Morpork
| YYY || Toronto Downtown
|-
| HSV || Hunstville
| YYZ || Toronto Pearson
|-
| SAN || San Diego
| MIA || Colombo, Sri Lanka
|-
| SAN || San Juan
| CLT || [Censored]
|-
| SAN || San Jose
| FHQ || Fhqwhgads
|-
| SAN || San Francisco
| FFS || Flagstaff Station
|-
| SAN || San Antonio
| DTF || Dartford
|-
| DWI || Delaware International
| MDW || Midway Atoll
|-
| DFW || Down for Whatever
| PDX || Pordlanx
|-
| DTW || Down to Whatever
| SEA || [Indicates Water Landing]
|-
|}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]
[[Category:Puns]]
[[Category:Harry Potter]]

Talk:2323: Modeling Study

2020-12-24T00:03:07Z

172.69.35.185: Add comment

Also known as

''I still have no clue about my subject, partly because I devised this study when I knew even less, but I need to write a paper anyway or I can never finish my PhD programme ...''

vs.

''I have now fiddled four years with my model assumptions to get the data to fit without, well, fiddling with the data, so please bear with me and my paper, and for heavens sake graduate me so I can save what is left of my soul and sanity ... '' ;-) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.94.94|162.158.94.94]] 20:23, 22 June 2020 (UTC)
: One of my friends who studied thermal engineering remarked that if his model agreed with the test data to within ten degrees, it was acceptable, but if it agreed to less than five degrees, he was suspicious, because it was probably over-fit to the peculiarities of his thermal chamber, thermocouple placement, and so on, and less applicable for the system's real operational environment. --[[User:NotaBene|NotaBene]] ([[User talk:NotaBene|talk]]) 23:40, 22 June 2020 (UTC)
::We got trolled by our physics teacher in high school, during a calorimetry experiment (where you measure the changes in temperature of a system). All our measurements were way off from theoretical results, so we "adjusted" the reported values to make them fit the expected curve. Unfortunately, the prof knew that the thermometers were too inaccurate to produce precise results, so it was more of a test of our honesty, which we all failed miserably :-/[[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.167|162.158.158.167]] 13:19, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:::In our Physics A-Level (normal post-Secondary and pre-University stage, for non-UKians) class, the 'trick' played on us was a 'black box' of components that we had to record the resistance/impedence/whatever of when raising the voltage (can't recall if DC or AC) from zero up to a level and then back down again. One of a number of such tests, to be done by rotating around the lab, you'd be tempted to just run it up and record the down as mirror image, or fudgingly near. Except that there was some sort of latching trip, once a given voltage went through the box, that changed the circuit significantly on the return trip. Only the honest (and possibly honest enough to show the 'error' that crept in, when thinking they'd messed it up - and no time to rerun it from scratch!) gave in the two-slope graph or whatever was the record. Can't tell you whether I was a Goody-Two-Shoes or not, though I like to think I was (and would have known about zenor diodes and self-reinfor ing flip-flop circuits, which this may have crudely used). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.130|141.101.98.130]] 23:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
::::Looks like your teacher was trying to illustrate the principle of {{w|Hysteresis#Electronic_circuits|hysteresis}}
:::In A-level Chemistry between the filthy glassware, M/1000 silver nitrate and contaminated reagents you would always get brown gunge instead of a red precipitate. But you quickly learned that you were supposed to falsify the data if you wanted a good mark.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.92|162.158.78.92]] 16:06, 24 June 2020 (UTC)
::::That's the point. If the teacher knows this (why wouldn't they?) and wants to honour scientistic behaviour which includes negative results and sometimes even reflecting on the unexpected outcomes of an experiment, they can set up an experiment that will always yield results, that appear wrong, to see who still reports the expected result. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:24, 25 June 2020 (UTC)
:::::The scientific Kobayashi Maru. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.35.185|172.69.35.185]] 00:03, 24 December 2020 (UTC)
:I once proof read a master thesis, where an experimental setting to optimize a problem in certain network arrangements was set up (basically a laboratory with 15 desktop PCs, communicating with each other on a specific protocol, etc.). The guy who wrote it found out on the first afternoon after setting it up, that the professor who found and described the problem he was about to tackle made a mistake, and the problem didn't exist. By that time he had already - due to university standards - handed in the name of his thesis. While negative results in research are also good results, the problem is, that by the same standards of his university his master thesis had to be a certain size - if I remember correctly, at least 50 pages in small font, excluding data and images - he managed to stretch his afternoons work and some subsequential tests on it to the required number of pages though. I am sure there is a lesson to be learned here, but... I haven't figured it out yet. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 05:37, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
::well, I gues the most important lesson would be "minimum length of text" is not a good requirement for any academic work. ;) [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 06:50, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:::No. The most important lesson is "always name your thesis vaguely enough you can scale the content between 5% and 2000% or what you originally planned to do". -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:15, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:::: The lesson is that people are so used to blindly following rules, instead of considering whether the reasons of the rules are relevant and appropriate, that this community produced a thesis paper that met few of the reasons to write one. Usually you would quickly explain that you need to change the title of the paper and this would be accepted because it makes so much sense. If it's not, there is some higher-up who would support you over anything that ensued. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.179|162.158.62.179]] 23:49, 25 June 2020 (UTC)
:::::That is true for most assignements, but not for a master thesis, which is - at least here in Germany - a very strict process, that has to be legal-proof for your whole career. So fiddling with the process can result in someone sabotaging you decades later for it. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:32, 6 July 2020 (UTC)

Various "<Problem> Denier" groups, (Climate Change, Covid, other things not ''necessarily'' starting with "C") do tend to lose their shit over "models" that aren't right (whether 1% out or 50%, they'll take any 'error', or just the failure to model what happened later ''because'' the model was heeded and behaviours changed to avoid the outcome) ironically using their clutched-at-straws to model all ''future'' models as wrong/intentionally-misleading-for-nefarious-intent. They also misunderstand the models (witness them dragging out old "85% chance Hillary will win" predictions against the roughly(-and-slightly-more-than) 50% of the votes she got - a different measure and far from incompatible with the other), whether innocently or deliberately, to 'prove' their point. And that's just done by regular Joes/Josephines. I'm sure you can be far more competently incompetent in your modelling (i.e. sneak sneaky shit past more and more learned people) if you're an actual modeller yourself who feels the need to drive towards an end for which you then look for the means. (Or modes, or medians.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.168|162.158.155.168]] 11:58, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:I'm nearly 18 hours late reading this comic, but the above is exactly why I'm so surprised to see it. Given Randall's apparent faith in mathematical modeling from other comics that this should be linked to (including the infamous vertical hockey stick temperature graph stretching back several millennia, and all the pro-Hillary bandwagon comics) I found this comic shocking in the extreme- he clearly knows the limitation of the method, and yet is still a true believer. Either that or he's finally growing up on the "A man who is not a liberal when he is young has no heart, a man who is not a conservative when he is old has no brains" spectrum. [[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:27, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

:: You seem to have taken the exact opposite of the message of the post above you. The point was that the science is accurate--the problem were people interpreting it wrong. They didn't get that Trump's 85 percent chance of losing meant he'd win roughly 1 in 7 times--only a little less than the probability you role a 1 on a single die. People mixed up his chances of winning with what percentage of the vote he'd get. Plus they lack an intuitive sense of how percentages work, which is why FiveThirtyEight moved to using "1 in X" numbers instead.

:: And I have no idea what any of this has to do with political beliefs: thinking models are inaccurate wouldn't make you change political philosophies. Plus, well, the aphorism you gave has been found to be untrue--it's quite uncommon for liberals or progressives to become more conservative as they age. What does happen is that what counts as progressive changes, which makes sense. The whole concept is trying to make progress, of continually changing. Saying women should be able to vote was progressive in the 1920s, for example. It's not now.

:: Anyways, I hope I've fought some misconceptions. I find a lot of our disagreements are based on these sorts of things, so I make it my goal to clear this stuff up--even if it means I sometimes come off like a know-it-all. [[User:Trlkly|Trlkly]] ([[User talk:Trlkly|talk]]) 07:03, 24 June 2020 (UTC)

:Well, whoever makes statements like the one paraphrased above from the 2016 US election, or merely one like "there is a 75% chance of rain tomorrow", is a moronic pseudoscientist, and ought to be flogged, tarred, feathered, and sentenced to clean out public toilets 8h/d for two months, in that order. Such "measures" (of course they aren´t, they are merely a statement about how firmly one believes in his model extrapolating past measurement results into the future) have only one advantage for the "statistican" and newspapers, they can never be proved wrong. --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.44|162.158.92.44]] 20:38, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
:How utterly ridiculous! There is NO way I want the person cleaning any toilet seat that I am going to use, to be covered in tar and feathers. That stuff is catching. If anyone is getting treated like that, it HAS to be in a different order.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.66|162.158.159.66]] 08:07, 25 August 2020 (UTC)
:Ummm. If you run a thousand related but variously hedging weather simulations and 750 of them suggest rain (for a given set of criteria - temporal, geographical and terminological limits), then there's 75% chance of rain. This doesn't mean it'll rain only 75% of the typical raincloud or be raining steady for just 45 minutes in any hour. And the same with polling. No, you ''can't'' prove it "wrong" (unless you said 0% or 100% chance and it did or did not happen; anyone who said such things would be taking their own risk), and that's the point. If the models suggest a majority of at least one vote (EC, ideally, but based on the balloting levels) for one party in 85% of circumstances, it is valid to suggest an 85% chance. However tightly packed the scatter is across all half-reasonable patterns. (Which can be enumerated, for those that understand the enumerations, but how many who don't understand the original figure would understand any additional ones?) So you can't prove it wrong, just an unfortunate 'miss' (like a bet that two dice won't come up snake-eyes; even more certain, but it still does fail to go the promised way), and yet some would say it invalidates all modelling. That they don't like the look of. They'll happily use spurious/selective models that seem to share their viewpoint. (As will many different people with many different viewpoints, of course. Hopefully enough people consider enough competent models to appreciate enough of the true uncertainty. But I'm not sure the models support the more optimistic levels of 'enough'.) [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.130|141.101.98.130]] 23:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)
::You'd judge a model by how well it predicts reality. If there is rain 75% of the time the weatherman says there is a 75% chance of rain, then they are using a good model and are right. You can write down their predictions and check this. (you have to combine both approaches). See comment by Seebert below. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.179|162.158.62.179]] 23:59, 25 June 2020 (UTC)

[https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-06-23 Dilbert makes the same point the next morning in a slightly different way]--[[User:Seebert|Seebert]] ([[User talk:Seebert|talk]]) 13:30, 23 June 2020 (UTC)