explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:2014: JWST Delays

2021-06-21T20:24:59Z

172.69.35.65: Comment

Haha - I made this same graph 2 weeks ago! [[User:Cosmogoblin|Cosmogoblin]] ([[User talk:Cosmogoblin|talk]]) 17:39, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

Suggest the last sentence be made more general: "The title text refers to a fundamental question of the Big Bang Theory; will the universe expand forever, or will is collapse back on itself? The likely answer to this question has changed over the decades as new measurements have been made, and new theories such as dark matter and dark energy developed to explain the new measurements. Apparently, and for an analogous reason, between 2018 and 2020 the likely answer to the fundamental JWST question will change." [[User:GODZILLA|GODZILLA]] ([[User talk:GODZILLA|talk]]) 17:58, 2 July 2018 (UTC)
:I agree to the current sentence saying "and compares the universe’s accelerating expansion to the apparently ever-delaying schedule" but were the hell comes the conclusion that "the JWST will have enough delays to fill a universe"? This does not make any sense. [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 07:59, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

Does today's prediction of 2026 count? If that is included in the data set, it would then skew the best-fit line to be steeper. If a new prediction is made using that new best-fit line, that would further skew the line, and so on, causing the acceleration the title text anticipates between 2018 and 2020.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.88|162.158.63.88]] 20:10, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

> Until the slope of the line becomes more than one and the prediction goes to the past, right? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.16|108.162.216.16]] 21:55, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

:No, it doesn't count, because it's just '''prediction''', while the data set is of (official) '''planned launch dates'''. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:06, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

:The Wikipedia data (taking the midpoint for ranges) fits a linear function with slope 0.660618 and intercept 687.739. This implies convergence at 2026.45, which is why Randall is predicting late 2026 for the actual launch. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.22.56|172.69.22.56]] 15:04, 10 July 2018 (UTC)

[[wikipedia:Heinz von Foerster#Doomsday equation|Von Foersters's doomsday]] is Friday 13th of November 2026. (cue Twilight Zone intro) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.89.175|162.158.89.175]] 21:20, 2 July 2018 (UTC)

Why does he keep saying it's 2021? Is he trying to skip Trump's term or what? --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.10|172.68.211.10]] 00:30, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
Why do you think that Trump will get only 1 term?[[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.70|141.101.76.70]] 17:10, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

This is the same chart for the new airport in Berlin. Sadly its slope is not less than one, it is indeed accelerating... 
2006     2011 
2010     2012 
2012     2013 
2013     2014 
2014     2016 
2015     2018 
2016     2018 
2017     2022 
[[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 07:57, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
:[https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bau_des_Flughafens_Berlin_Brandenburg#cite_ref-136] says that the planned launch date from December 2017 is in October 2020 (not 2022). That would make the slope slightly less than 1 (unless you ignore the 2016->2011 data point, as outlier) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.35|162.158.91.35]] 09:27, 4 July 2018 (UTC)
::There was a 2022 prediction earlier in 2017, I took the maximum value for each year. And honestly, 2202 sounds more reasonable than 2020 for me. [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 14:39, 4 July 2018 (UTC)

I feel a quadratic regression would be needed to determine acceleration / deceleration [[Special:Contributions/172.68.59.24|172.68.59.24]] 13:54, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

: If you plot out the least-squares fit as it changes over time (i.e. repeat Randall's graph as each new data point was added), it fits a quadratic quite well. And converges to a 2025 date.

I wonder what this chart would look like for new york's 2nd avenue subway.
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.130|162.158.75.130]] 17:36, 3 July 2018 (UTC)

At least there _is_ a slope. How about Trump's wall? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.151|173.245.52.151]] 00:52, 4 July 2018 (UTC)

Two more lines are coming together... the year and the XKCD index. 2018 should happen next week. [[User:IonFreeman|IonFreeman]] ([[User talk:IonFreeman|talk]]) 14:22, 5 July 2018 (UTC)

The last three data points have a slope greater than one. Just sayin'. [[User:Redbelly98|Redbelly98]] ([[User talk:Redbelly98|talk]]) 19:55, 29 July 2018 (UTC)

:"NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to 31 October 2021." THE RIDE NEVER ENDS [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.188|108.162.215.188]] 05:24, 17 September 2020 (UTC)

::November to December 2021 now... amazing. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.35.65|172.69.35.65]] 20:24, 21 June 2021 (UTC)

Did anyone else read the title text and immediately think of Covid-19? Did xkcd predict Covid? DID RANDALL CAUSE THE OUTBREAK?

Talk:2478: Alien Visitors 2

2021-06-19T00:33:23Z

172.69.35.65: category needed

Sorry for intruding, I am just delighted that I am early [[Special:Contributions/162.158.166.161|162.158.166.161]] 14:02, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

"Maybe we shouldn't stand right under it." This line might (inadvertently?) reference the common alien-movie fail in which massive spacecraft hover at low altitude over human populations without obliterating them and their infrastructure. It might also be bathroom humor. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.129.134|172.68.129.134]] 15:56, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
:I'm with the original explanation. The aliens just don't seem very advanced, so they're worried that the spaceships are poorly constructed and pieces might fall off, or the entire ship might just drop. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 16:19, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
:You are probably correct with respect to Randall's intentions. The situation, though, brings to my mind Turtledove's [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwar_series Worldwar series], in which "The Race" had very advanced technology (hence little risk of spaceships crashing on their own) but had, at least initially, a poor opinion about human technologies and their advancement. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.129.132|172.68.129.132]] 18:31, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

To the individual who made a callback to Capri Sun--bless you. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.83|172.70.130.83]] 19:11, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

:Need a category for this recurring comic: [[:Category:Alien Visitors]]. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.35.65|172.69.35.65]] 00:33, 19 June 2021 (UTC)

2477: Alien Visitors

2021-06-19T00:32:38Z

172.69.35.65: re-add

{{comic
| number = 2477
| date = June 16, 2021
| title = Alien Visitors
| image = alien_visitors.png
| titletext = Stay right there, we'll be back in a minute. We've just gotta brainstorm some new wonders. Have you all figured out gears yet? Yes? Crap.
}}

==Explanation==
This strip satirizes the {{w|ancient astronauts}} hypothesis: that {{w|Extraterrestrial life|aliens}} were involved in building the {{w|pyramids}} and {{w|Stonehenge}}. This concept, popular in some circles, is based on the assumption that earlier civilizations lacked the technology to build such large structures. There are also geometric or other scientific properties to these structures, which some people assume that humans of that era would have been incapable of creating. {{w|Erich von Däniken}}, a Swiss author, is one of the foremost proponents of "ancient astronauts." Some say that such pseudoscience is inherently racist, as it assumes, without any proof, that other civilizations were unable to build their monuments without foreign help. Although others disagree since most races and nationalities have one or another of these monuments with similar claims.

In the comic, aliens arrive with the intention of building such monuments with their highly advanced technology, including some sort of tractor beam to lift the heavy stones and another beam that can depict a pyramid. They are shocked to hear from [[Cueball]] that humans accomplished the same thing thousands of years earlier with such simple tools as ramps, and even in more than one location on Earth (Pyramids in {{w|Egyptian pyramids|Egypt}} and {{w|Mesoamerican pyramids|Mexico}}). Thus they proceed to suggest a stone circle to predict the solstice, but before they can finish this sentence [[Megan]] says this is like Stonehenge.

The joke of the strip is that, if aliens were interested in building such structures on earth, they'd be just as likely to show up today as thousands of years ago. And if they offered to build pyramids today, humans would be very unimpressed, as we've had the technology to do so for a quite some time. The notion that an advanced, spacefaring species would come all the way to Earth (or whatever other planets they visit) to build relatively simple stone structures seems dubious, when put that way.

Alternately, the aliens may have visited Earth before in the past and impressed the humans of the time with their advanced technology of pyramids and stone circles, leading them to expect the same technology to impress the humans again in the present day. This is somewhat plausible: Stonehenge is estimated to have been built around 3100BC, while the pyramids were built 500-1000 years later. Assuming both structures were indeed built by aliens in the past, the visitors would have returned to the Earth to find agricultural civilizations almost identical to the ones they encountered centuries prior. The aliens could have then been led to believe that human technology, if almost entirely unchanged in the 500 years since they last visited, would not have advanced significantly in a few thousand years. Indeed, the aliens were mostly correct in this assessment: technological advancement progressed at a crawl until the scientific revolution marked the emergence of modern science only a relatively short 600 years ago. From this perspective, the aliens would seem to be correct in their assumption that human technology would not significantly improve such that they could not impress humanity with their technological wonders. Unfortunately, the aliens have been caught off-guard by the exponential nature of technological advancement, in that advanced civilizations have the resources to advance even more rapidly.

The aliens' reaction is frustration as they cannot teach us anything new; evidently, it does not occur to them to share their technologies for antigravity and interstellar travel (which, having come to Earth in floating spaceships, they clearly possess). So in the title text they have regrouped and would now present another wonder - {{w|gears}}. This is very likely a reference to the {{w|Antikythera mechanism}}, an artifact dating from the 2nd century BC which used a complex, geared calculating system to predict the movement of stars and planets. As with the aforementioned structures, some fringe groups theorize that such mechanisms were beyond human technology at the time, and therefore must have been given by aliens. Once again, such technology is not impressive to humans at this point, as complex, geared mechanisms are now commonplace in most human societies. Indeed, quite a bit of intricate mechanical gearing and timing has been obsoleted by electronics.

==Transcript==
:[A flying saucer is hovering high above Cueball and Megan, drawn very small standing on the ground beneath it. The aliens inside speak to them from inside their saucer, indicated with zigzag lines between it and the text.]
:Aliens: Greetings, humans!
:Megan: Whoa, aliens!
:Aliens: We bring you technological wonders!

:[Zoom in on the flying saucer which has two beams below it, the left showing an outline of a pyramid and the right is shown lifting a large stone. Cueball replies off-panel.]
:Aliens: We will help you lift great stones and build towering monuments.
:Cueball (off-panel): Oh, pyramids?

:[Zoom in on Cueball and Megan looking up, the Aliens reply from above the panel.]
:Aliens (off-panel): ...Yes.
:Cueball: Yeah, we have those. In Egypt.
:Megan: And Mexico.
:Cueball: I think they used ramps?

:[Zoom back out, as in first panel]
:Aliens: Then we shall build a ring of stones aligned with the stars, so at the solstice-
:Megan: Oh, like Stonehenge?
:Aliens: ''Dammit, humans.''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Aliens]]

2478: Alien Visitors 2

2021-06-19T00:29:59Z

172.69.35.65: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2478
| date = June 18, 2021
| title = Alien Visitors 2
| image = alien_visitors_2.png
| titletext = "Although fresh juice DOES sound--" "NO! For humanity to survive we must learn from the mistakes of the past."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a 1920s ELIXIR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
In the return of the aliens from the [[2477: Alien Visitors|previous comic]], they show more "advanced" inventions that are less efficient or more harmful than their current forms, and most have been invented by humans and replaced.

{{w|Biplane}}s are planes with two sets of wings, which have more drag than a {{w|monoplane}}. Biplanes have been rendered obsolete since the 1930s.

A {{w|blimp}} is a lighter than air aircraft with no internal structure. The point raised about hydrogen would be because it is highly flammable and dangerous. The {{w|Hindenburg disaster}} was a famous explosion of a hydrogen airship (although zeppelin airships are not blimps because they have an internal structural framework and they're called rigid airships in contrast to blimps, that just rely on the internal pressure of their lifting gas to maintain their shape). Blimps are still used today, but use helium, and are typically used for advertising or for aerial photography/videography.

{{w|Tetraethyllead}} ((CH3 CH2)4Pb) is a chemical added to gasoline (mostly from the 1920s to the 1990s — although some countries [https://web.archive.org/web/20171115235249/http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/17542/MapWorldLead_March2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y still use it to this day]) to prevent {{w|engine knocking}}, until it was revealed to have highly toxic effects. The aliens seem unaware of these toxic effects (it is unclear whether the chemical hurts aliens as well, or whether it doesn't hurt them but they don't realize the toxic effects on humans), and indeed quite concerned by them, implying they might be using leaded gasoline themselves.

{{w|Juicero}} was a juicer known for its absurd inefficiency and greedy business model: {{Citation needed}} the machine would only work on the company's proprietary branded single-serving bags of pulped fruit sold for $7-10 each, and more juice could be extracted from the bags by hand than by the press. Basically, they were selling $10 bags of chopped fruit and a $700 machine to squeeze them into a cup for you.

After the latest showing of unimpressive "inventions", the humans start questioning how "advanced" the aliens really are, asking if they built the flying saucer themselves and suggesting that it might be wise to avoid standing directly beneath it in case it suddenly crashes to earth.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[A flying saucer is hovering high above Ponytail, White Hat, Cueball and Megan, drawn very small standing on the ground beneath it. The aliens inside speak to them from inside their saucer, indicated with zigzag lines between it and the text. Ponytail approaches the others on the ground from the left.]
:Aliens: Greetings, humans. We have returned.
:Aliens: Since you already have pyramids, we've brought you more advanced wonders.

:[Zoom in on the flying saucer which has two beams below it, the left showing an outline of a biplane and the right is showing an outline of a blimp. Cueball replies off-panel.]
:Aliens: These machines will let you conquer the sky!
:(off-panel voice 1): A biplane?
:(off-panel voice 1): Aren't monoplanes more efficient?
:(off-panel voice 2): Does that blimp use hydrogen?

:[Zoom in on the 4 humans looking up, the Aliens reply from above the panel. There is a chemical formula in an outline from the alien flying saucer:]
:Aliens: (CH3 CH2)4 Pb
:Aliens (off-panel): Add this elixir of lead to your gasoline and your engines will run smooth.
:White Hat: Lead? Isn't that stuff toxic?
:Aliens: Is it?
:Aliens: Oh no.

:[Zoom back out, as in first panel. The flying saucer has a beam showing an outline of a juice machine]
:Aliens: Okay, uh.
:Aliens: This device's electric press can squeeze fresh fruit juice from bags of pulp!
:Ponytail: ...Just curious, did you build that saucer?
:Cueball: Maybe we shouldn't stand right under it.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Aliens]]

2478: Alien Visitors 2

2021-06-19T00:29:27Z

172.69.35.65: /* Explanation */

{{comic
| number = 2478
| date = June 18, 2021
| title = Alien Visitors 2
| image = alien_visitors_2.png
| titletext = "Although fresh juice DOES sound--" "NO! For humanity to survive we must learn from the mistakes of the past."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a 1920s ELIXIR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
In the return of the aliens from the [[2477: Alien Visitors|previous comic]], they show more "advanced" inventions that are less efficient or more harmful than their current forms, and most have been invented by humans and replaced.

{{w|Biplane}}s are planes with two sets of wings, which have more drag than a {{w|monoplane}}. Biplanes have been rendered obsolete since the 1930s.

A {{w|blimp}} is a lighter than air aircraft with no internal structure. The point raised about hydrogen would be because it is highly flammable and dangerous. The {{w|Hindenburg disaster}} was a famous explosion of a hydrogen airship (although zeppelin airships are not blimps because they have an internal structural framework and they're called rigid airships in contrast to blimps, that just rely on the internal pressure of their lifting gas to maintain their shape). Blimps are still used today, but use helium, and are typically used for advertising or for aerial photography/videography.

{{w|Tetraethyllead}} ((CH3CH2)4Pb) is a chemical added to gasoline (mostly from the 1920s to the 1990s — although some countries [https://web.archive.org/web/20171115235249/http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/17542/MapWorldLead_March2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y still use it to this day]) to prevent {{w|engine knocking}}, until it was revealed to have highly toxic effects. The aliens seem unaware of these toxic effects (it is unclear whether the chemical hurts aliens as well, or whether it doesn't hurt them but they don't realize the toxic effects on humans), and indeed quite concerned by them, implying they might be using leaded gasoline themselves.

{{w|Juicero}} was a juicer known for its absurd inefficiency and greedy business model: {{Citation needed}} the machine would only work on the company's proprietary branded single-serving bags of pulped fruit sold for $7-10 each, and more juice could be extracted from the bags by hand than by the press. Basically, they were selling $10 bags of chopped fruit and a $700 machine to squeeze them into a cup for you.

After the latest showing of unimpressive "inventions", the humans start questioning how "advanced" the aliens really are, asking if they built the flying saucer themselves and suggesting that it might be wise to avoid standing directly beneath it in case it suddenly crashes to earth.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[A flying saucer is hovering high above Ponytail, White Hat, Cueball and Megan, drawn very small standing on the ground beneath it. The aliens inside speak to them from inside their saucer, indicated with zigzag lines between it and the text. Ponytail approaches the others on the ground from the left.]
:Aliens: Greetings, humans. We have returned.
:Aliens: Since you already have pyramids, we've brought you more advanced wonders.

:[Zoom in on the flying saucer which has two beams below it, the left showing an outline of a biplane and the right is showing an outline of a blimp. Cueball replies off-panel.]
:Aliens: These machines will let you conquer the sky!
:(off-panel voice 1): A biplane?
:(off-panel voice 1): Aren't monoplanes more efficient?
:(off-panel voice 2): Does that blimp use hydrogen?

:[Zoom in on the 4 humans looking up, the Aliens reply from above the panel. There is a chemical formula in an outline from the alien flying saucer:]
:Aliens: (CH3 CH2)4 Pb
:Aliens (off-panel): Add this elixir of lead to your gasoline and your engines will run smooth.
:White Hat: Lead? Isn't that stuff toxic?
:Aliens: Is it?
:Aliens: Oh no.

:[Zoom back out, as in first panel. The flying saucer has a beam showing an outline of a juice machine]
:Aliens: Okay, uh.
:Aliens: This device's electric press can squeeze fresh fruit juice from bags of pulp!
:Ponytail: ...Just curious, did you build that saucer?
:Cueball: Maybe we shouldn't stand right under it.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Aliens]]

2478: Alien Visitors 2

2021-06-18T16:10:15Z

172.69.35.65: /* Transcript */ cats

2389: Unread

2020-11-24T07:27:43Z

172.69.35.65: /* Transcript */ smartphone

{{comic
| number = 2389
| date = November 23, 2020
| title = Unread
| image = unread.png
| titletext = I'll never install a smart home smoke detector. It's not that I don't trust the software--it's that all software eventually becomes email, and I know how I am with email.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by SOME UNREAD EMAILS. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag before you've sorted through these.}}
[[Cueball]] has an unspecified communication application on his phone. As the chart displays, the longer he has the app, the more unread messages he has on it (likely due to a combination of more people trying to contact him over it and him checking it less diligently). Eventually, he gives up reading every message, and he notices apathetically when it reaches 10,000 notifications. The joke comes in the caption, which states that all communication services have this problem and implies that this problem is the key problem with {{w|email}}.

The caption, "''Another'' way every system eventually becomes email" (emphasis added) is a reference to {{w|Jamie_Zawinski#Principles|Zawinski's law of of software envelopment}}: "Every program attempts to expand until it can read mail. Those programs which cannot so expand are replaced by ones which can." In this case, it's not that every program will eventually become capable of sending and receiving emails, but rather that Cueball/Randall will treat every program that provides notifications the same way he treats his email inbox.

In the title text, Randall uses this reasoning to explain why he'll never install a smart {{w|smoke detector}}. A smart detector would send a notification to his phone when the smoke level is high enough to trigger it; following the same trend, Randall believes he will eventually stop reading the alerts from the smoke detector. Ignoring a smoke detector is dangerous.{{Template:Citation needed}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[A graph with the x-axis and y-axis labeled]

:Percentage of received messages in the service that are marked unread

:Time --->

:[Three Cueballs standing at different points on the graph. The first two are shown directly above the line at the beginning and middle areas, and the third is shown below it near the end of the graph. All three are holding phones.]

:[The first Cueball looks at his phone, which displays two notifications on an app]

:Oh hey, two new messages!

:[The next Cueball again looks at his phone, this time with 45 notifications on the app]

:Ugh, gotta take some time to go through these.

:[The last Cueball's phone app shows 10129 notifications]

:Wow, it hit five digits.

:[Caption below the panel]

:Another way every system eventually becomes email

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Programming]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category: Smartphones]]

2388: Viral Quiz Identity Theft

2020-11-21T00:38:46Z

172.69.35.65:

{{comic
| number = 2388
| date = November 20, 2020
| title = Viral Quiz Identity Theft
| image = viral_quiz_identity_theft.png
| titletext = [scrolling through a giant spreadsheet of transcribed data] 'Wow, a surprising number of users grew up at 420 69th St.' 'Yeah, must be a high-rise or something.'
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT WHO GREW UP AT 420 69TH STREET. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

Hairy is trying to compile a list of names and addresses, for identity theft purposes. However, as White Hat points out, a lot of this information is in the {{w|public record}} making his "viral quiz" unnecessary.

Even though White Hat is correct that there are public databases with lists of legal names and addresses, lots of online interactions take place in forums where people adopt pseudonyms. A viral quiz like this one could be useful for de-anonymizing users, a process known colloquially as "doxing". There is also a suspicion that these kind of viral quizzes are used to create databases to answer password recovery questions correctly. Together with a man-in-the-middle attack on the email system used, this can lead to hackers taking over user accounts.

In the title text, it turns out that lots of users did not provide their personal information. Instead they provided fake information, which Hairy naively takes as truth. The number '420' is associated with {{w|420 (cannabis culture)|the use of marijuana}} and the number '69' is used to refer to {{w|69 (sex position)|a sex position}}. White Hat could also be taking the data at its word when he replies that there must be a {{w|high-rise building}} at that address to hold so many respondents, but it is more likely that he is making a sarcastic double-entendre pun.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Hairy and White Hat are standing across from each other at a table. Each has a laptop open in front of him.]

:Hairy: Here's my plan: we start a viral quiz to trick people into posting the name of the street they lived on as a kid.
:Hairy: Then we use it to steal their identity!
:White Hat: Okay.
:White Hat: Just checking, you know voter files and mortgages and stuff are mostly public records, right?
:Hairy: Huh? What are you talking about?
:White Hat: ...Nothing. We can do your thing.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Computer security]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:15:46Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
| No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
| While other presidents were widowers, Buchanan was the first unmarried president, being a life long bachelor.
| True
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the first president over 6'3" president, at 6'4" tall, making him the tallest president to date.
| True
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
| Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority)
| True
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge include John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, and Za'''c'''hary Taylor.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, All presidents with a "K" won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama.
| Is not broken
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:13:42Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
| No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
| While other presidents were widowers, Buchanan was the first unmarried president, being a life long bachelor.
| True
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the first president over 6'3" president, at 6'4" tall, making him the tallest president to date.
| True
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
| Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority)
| True
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, and Za'''c'''hary Taylor.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, All presidents with a "K" won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama.
| Is not broken
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:12:13Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
| No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
| While other presidents were widowers, Buchanan was the first unmarried president, being a life long bachelor.
| True
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the first president over 6'3" president, at 6'4" tall, making him the tallest president to date.
| True
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
| Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority)
| True
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, All presidents with a "K" won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama.
| Is not broken
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:11:17Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
| No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
| While other presidents were widowers, Buchanan was the first unmarried president, being a life long bachelor.
| True
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the first president over 6'3" president, at 6'4" tall, making him the tallest president to date.
| True
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
| Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority)
| True
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:10:54Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
| No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
| While other presidents were widowers, Buchanan was the first unmarried president, being a life long bachelor.
| True
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the first president over 6'3" president, at 6'4" tall, making him the tallest president to date.
| True
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
| Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority)
| True
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

1122: Electoral Precedent

2020-11-13T03:03:07Z

172.69.35.65: /* Table of Broken Precedents */

{{comic
| number = 1122
| date = October 17, 2012
| title = Electoral Precedent
| image = electoral_precedent.png
| titletext = No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence.

After the first panel the next 56 panels in this comic refer to each one of the {{w|United States presidential election#Electoral college results|56 presidential elections}} in U.S. history before {{w|Barack Obama|Obama's}} re-election in 2012. The panels depict a pre-election commentator noting a quality or condition that has never occurred to a candidate, until one of the candidates in that election broke the streak. In other words, one can always find at least one unique thing about a candidate who has gone on to win (or in some cases, lose) or the circumstances under which they won (or lost) that is unique from all previous winners (or losers). It's worth noting that some of these 'firsts' were truly precedent-setting (such as the first incumbent losing, the first president to win a third term, the first Catholic president, etc.), but the fact that they hadn't happened was no assurance that there wouldn't be a first time. As the years pass on, these 'streaks' become more and more nested and complicated, and then brought by Randall to the point of absurdity by pointing out very trivial things, such as "No Democratic {{w|incumbent}} without combat experience has ever beaten someone whose first name is worth more in {{w|Scrabble}}" (1996).

The flaw made by pundits while reporting such streaks is that there will always be ''something'' that has never happened before in an election, and they purport to suggest that these things are related to the candidate's win or loss. Randall considers this a logical flaw. A common one is, as noted in several panels, candidates can't win without winning certain states. The question, however, is one of {{w|Correlation does not imply causation|cause or effect}}.

Given that there have only been 56 elections, there are always going to be things that haven't happened before. If you go out looking for them, you're sure to find some. There is no magic about why these events haven't happened. In most cases, it is merely coincidence.

In the last two panels two more statements like the previous are given. They were both true before the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|election in 2012}} on November the 6th. The comic came out in the middle of the campaign on October the 17th. The statements were constructed so that the first predicts that Obama can't win over {{w|Mitt Romney}}, and the second that he cannot lose. As Obama won the election he thus ended the streak ''Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers'' whereas the other streak is still valid.

The title text refers to the fact that {{w|Twitter}} was founded in 2006. Obama won in 2008, so at the time of the comic it was true that no white male person mentioned on Twitter had ever gone on to win the presidency; although certainly some former presidents, all of whom were white males, have subsequently been mentioned on Twitter. This streak was broken in the next election year, when Donald Trump won the 2016 election.

During these last four weeks before the election Randall posted no fewer than four comics related to this election. The others are: [[1127: Congress]], [[1130: Poll Watching]] and [[1131: Math]].

In 2020, Randall posted an update to this comic: [[2383: Electoral Precedent 2020]].

===Table of Broken Precedents===

''Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate''

{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable"
|-
! Year !! Broken Precedent !! Explanation !! Validity
|-
| 1788
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
| Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US.
| True
|-
| 1792
| No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
| Washington is the first person who had a second term. He was unopposed so there was no challenger.
| True
|-
| 1796
| No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
| Washington had false teeth, made of human teeth and other materials. His successor Adams, despite having tooth decay, refused to wear false teeth.
| True
|-
| 1800
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
| Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson.
| True
|-
| 1804
| No incumbent has beaten an challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
| The 2 previous incumbents were Washington, who was unopposed, and Adams, who lost as an incumbent (to Jefferson).
| True
|-
| 1808
| No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
| While George Washington served in the House of Burgesses, Madison served as congressman for Virginia's 5th district from 1789 to 1793 and the 15th District from 1793 to 1797 in the U. S. Congress.
| True
|-
| 1812
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
| While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute].
| False
|-
| 1816
| No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
| Despite popular misconception, Washington did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white.
| False
|-
| 1820
| No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches.
|
|-
| 1824
| No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
| Jackson won the plurality of the popular vote and Electoral College. But as it was a four way election, he did not achieve a majority - so the vote went to Congress, who elected John Quincy Adams.
| True
|-
| 1828
| Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
| Jackson was from South Carolina, while all previous presidents were from Massachusetts or Virginia.
| True
|-
| 1832
| The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
| Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were the only re-elected presidents at that time, and they were all Virginians.
| True
|-
| 1836
| New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
| Martin Van Buren is the first president from the state of New York.
| True
|-
|1840
| No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
| He was 68 and the first over 65, and died of pneumonia 31 days after giving the longest inauguration to date.
| True
|-
|1844
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
| Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did.
| True
|-
|1848
| As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
| Prior to 1848, (Every candidate who had won the state of Mississippi had won the election, with the only exception being the 1824 election, where John Quincy Adams was elected by Congress, due to no one winning the Electoral College. In 1848, Lewis Cass won the state of Mississippi, but lost the election to Zachary Taylor.
| True
|-
|1852
|New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
|Pierce is the first candidate from the Democratic Party from New England, specifically New Hampshire, and he won the election of 1952.
| True
|-
|1856
|No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
|Buchanan was the first unmarried president.
|
|-
|1860
| No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
| Lincoln was the tallest president, at 6'4" tall.
|
|-
|1864
|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
|
|
|-
|1868
|No one can be president if their parents are alive. ...Until Grant.
|
|
|-
|1872
|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
|
|
|-
|1876
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
|Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}.
|
|-
|1880
|As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
|Since being a state in 1850, the winner of California had won the election - until 1880 when Winfield Hancock won California, but lost the election to James Garfield.
|
|-
|1884
|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland.
|
|-
|1888
|No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
|Grover Cleveland was the first president since the end of the Civil War to be defeated by a challenger, losing to Benjamin Harrison. Andrew Johnson was not chosen as the Democratic candidate in 1868. Ulysses S. Grant served 2 terms and did not run for a 3rd term. Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur (who became president after the assassination of James Garfield) did not seek reelection after their first term.
|
|-
|1892
|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892.
|
|-
|1896
|Tall Midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
|
|
|-
|1900
|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln, and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall.
|
|-
|1904
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was.
|At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42.
|
|-
|1908
|No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
|Taft was the first Republican to win an election and not serve in the military - Lincoln served during the Black Hawk War; Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Benjamin Harrison and McKinley served in the Civil War; and Theodore Roosevelt served in the Spanish-American War.
|
|-
|1912
|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
|
|
|-
|1916
|No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
|Since its statehood in 1863, Wilson is the first Democrat to lose West Virginia, but win the national election.
|
|-
|1920
|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President.
|
|-
|1924
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
|'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley.
|
|-
|1928
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
|
|
|-
|1932
|No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1936
|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
|
|
|-
|1940
|No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
|FDR is the first and only president to serve 4 terms due to his popularity/policies, made impossible by the {{w|Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution|26th amendment}}
|
|-
|1944
|No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
|
|
|-
|1948
|Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
|
|
|-
|1952
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
|
|
|-
|1956
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
|
|
|-
|1960
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1964
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
|
|
|-
|1968
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
|
|
|-
|1972
|Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
|
|
|-
|1976
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
|
|
|-
|1980
|No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1984
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
|
|
|-
|1988
|No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
|
|
|-
|1992
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
|
|
|-
|1996
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
|
|
|-
|2000
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2004
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
|
|
|-
|2008
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
|
|
|-
|2012?
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. If Obama wins (as he did) it will break the streak.
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm)
|
|-
|2012?
| No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. If Romney wins (but he didn't) it will break the streak.
| Discounting third party and small nominees, these nominees won: Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, Barack Obama
| Unbroken so far, so true
|}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript}}
:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... As goes Mississippi, so goes the nation. ...Until 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker".
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. Which streak will break?

==Trivia/Errors==
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected.

* Also, one of the statements of a streak for the 2012 elections can be considered wrong: in 1952, the Republican candidate/running mate Eisenhower/Nixon defeated the Democratic alliterative ticket Stevenson/Sparkman (in what can only be described as a landslide). The comic has been changed, and now reads "Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers" as the streak which would have the Republican ticket as the winners.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T02:41:28Z

172.69.35.65: /* Explanation */ more

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached, was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits.) Given his supporters, the fact that he was impeached did not influence many voters..
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent (as Biden did in 2020) was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant than now. Having at least a single website actually increases the likelihood to beat an opponent. {{citation needed}} So there is no 'curse' on using websites. Also, virtually every candidate has a website nowadays, so it is unlikely to swing anything.

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

The title text continues the theme of websites, by stating that no incumbent with a website had ever lost, which Trump did in 2020. Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so under the 2016 panel there is the ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]

2383: Electoral Precedent 2020

2020-11-10T02:38:09Z

172.69.35.65: /* Transcript */ mention

{{comic
| number = 2383
| date = November 9, 2020
| title = Electoral Precedent 2020
| image = electoral_precedent_2020.png
| titletext = He also broke the streak that incumbents with websites are unbeatable and Delawareans can't win, creating a new precedent: Only someone from Delaware can defeat an incumbent with a website.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.

The final two panels again show how the 'precedent' have side conditions that influenced these precedents:
* No sitting president who was impeached, was nominated for the office again... until Donald Trump. (Bill Clinton was the last president who was impeached, but he was not eligible for re-election due to term limits.) Given his supporters, the fact that he was impeached did not influence many voters..
* The last time a challenger beat an incumbent (as Biden did in 2020) was in 1992 when websites weren't nearly as predominant than now. Having at least a single website actually increases the likelihood to beat an opponent. {{citation needed}} So there is no 'curse' on using websites. Also, virtually every candidate has a website nowadays, so it is unlikely to swing anything.

The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention:
* Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century.
* At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration.
* Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and first vice president of Indian descent. A Californian, she'll also be the first Democratic president or vice president from the West.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:The problem with statements like
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>"
:Or
:"No president has been reelected under <circumstances>"

:<nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★

:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was.
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington.
:1796... No one without false teeth has become president. ...But Adams did.
:1800... No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did.
:1804... No incumbent has beaten a challenger. ...Until Jefferson.
:1808... No congressman has ever become president. ...Until Madison.
:1812... No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did.
:1816... No candidate who doesn't wear a wig can get elected. ...Until Monroe was.
:1820... No one who wears pants instead of breeches can be reelected. ...But Monroe was.
:1824... No one has ever won without a popular majority. ...J.Q. Adams did.
:1828... Only people from Massachusetts and Virginia can win. ...Until Jackson did.
:1832... The only presidents who get reelected are Virginians. ...Until Jackson.
:1836... New Yorkers always lose. ...Until Van Buren.
:1840... No one over 65 has won the presidency. ...Until Harrison did.
:1844... No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did.
:1848... The Democrats don't lose when they win Pennsylvania. ...But they did in 1848.
:1852... New England Democrats can't win. ...Until Pierce did.
:1856... No one can become president without getting married. ...Until Buchanan did.
:1860... No one over 6'3" can get elected. ...Until Lincoln.
:1864... No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was.
:1868... No one can be president if their parent are alive. ...Until Grant.
:1872... No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was.
:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did.
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock.
:1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine.
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was.
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland.
:1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't.
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was.
:1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did.
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft.
:1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither.
:1916... No Democrat has won without Indiana. ...Wilson did.
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding.
:1924... No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge.
:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith.
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did.
:1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was.
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did.
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did.
:1948... Democrats can't win without Alabama. ...Truman did.
:1952... No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did.
:1956... No Republican has won without Missouri. ...Until Eisenhower.
:1960... Republicans without facial hair are unbeatable. ...Kennedy beat Nixon.
:1964... No Democrat has won without Georgia. ...Johnson did.
:1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon.
:1972... No wartime candidate has won without Massachusetts. ...Until Nixon did.
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did.
:1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was.
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was.
:1988... No Democrat who has won Wisconsin (without being from there) has lost. ...Until Dukakis did.
:1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did.
:1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob.
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did.
:2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did.
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did.
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did.
:2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did.
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big>✓</big>
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big>X</big>

:[Caption below the comic]
:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse!

==Errors==
*This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so under the 2016 panel there is the ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Politics]]
[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]]
[[Category:Comics with color]]