explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:3063: Planet Definitions

2025-04-07T15:13:04Z

172.70.163.109: I hate it when switching tabs loses me edits I'd made along the way, and I don't notice that at first....

The one currently posted has Pluto highlighted in the second box and not highlighted in the first box. Too hard to tell if it's trolling or a genuine mistake. :-D

:Apparently a mistake since it's fixed now. [[User:HughNo|HughNo]] ([[User talk:HughNo|talk]]) 19:59, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

And the first one also has a moon hilighted instead I think?? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.126.5|162.158.126.5]] 15:59, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

:Was about to write the same. The coloring in the first two lines arund Pluto seem wrong (or mistankingly switched). --[[Special:Contributions/172.71.222.246|172.71.222.246]] 16:17, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

This, this is the hill I will die on. I was radicalised by this paper: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.15285 Moons Are Planets: "Scientific Usefulness Versus Cultural Teleology in the Taxonomy of Planetary Science"]
In short; planets are what planetary scientists study. Round things with the *good stuff*: atmospheres, oceans, volcanoes (of lava or water ice) (see diagram page 53).
Pluto, Titan, Ceres, Io and Europa are all in the sweet spot where you're not so small you're just a lump of rocks who happen to be stuck together into a lump, and not so large you're just a mostly undifferentiated mass of fusing hydrogen/helium plasma.
And it's consistent with our pre-20th Century understanding of what a planet is, whereas the IAU definition is trying to preserve 19th Century astrology. An amazing read and a strong recommend for anyone who cares about this subject. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.79.138|172.69.79.138]] 16:45, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:Ooh, thank you! That was fascinating and I'm head-canonizing that definition now. –[[User:P1h3r1e3d13|P1h3r1e3d13]] ([[User talk:P1h3r1e3d13|talk]]) 23:57, 17 March 2025 (UTC)

Does this sort of count as pi-related for pi day? [[User:TomtheBuilder|TomtheBuilder]] ([[User talk:TomtheBuilder|talk]]) 17:04, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:he doesn't do themed comics anymore 😔 [[User:CalibansCreations|'''Caliban''']] ([[User talk:CalibansCreations|talk]]) 17:12, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:: Sure he does. [[2962]] and [[2969]] weren't too long ago. Seems like it, though. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.182.222|172.71.182.222]] 03:31, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
:::I don't understand either the "he doesn't do themes" bit, or the full nature of the reply, frankly. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.205.122|172.68.205.122]] 22:52, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

I was somewhat disappointed to get to the end of the table without seeing either an astrology or Sailor Moon joke. -- [[User:Angel|Angel]] ([[User talk:Angel|talk]]) 18:12, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Is it possible that Uranus is marked under "Empiricist" because of the "Randall has seen Uranus" joke? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.42.178|172.70.42.178]] 18:38, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

The "{{w|Classical planet|Classical Planets}}" should be 7, including the Sun and the Moon.
:The average distance of the orbit of the Moon around the Earth must be slightly farther away than the orbit of the Sun around the Earth, since the Moon lags behind the Sun a little more each day, but the orbits must cross or we would never have a solar eclipse :P [[User:SammyChips|SammyChips]] ([[User talk:SammyChips|talk]]) 19:41, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Wouldn't the Regolithic one depend on the exact definitions of "dirt", "ice", and "covered"? It seems that an argument could be made that the giant planets also count there but have a much thicker atmosphere on the outside, and disqualifying because of the atmosphere could exclude others like Earth depending on the exact threshold used. [[User:SammyChips|SammyChips]] ([[User talk:SammyChips|talk]]) 19:08, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Has Randall not seen the sun before?
:I'm impressed that he has seen Uranus (unless that actually is a joke), especially if he saw it unaided (apparently it actually can be barely seen with the naked eye if the conditions are incredibly good). [[User:SammyChips|SammyChips]] ([[User talk:SammyChips|talk]]) 19:36, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:Could the sun be classified as a "world"? --[[User:MothWaves|MothWaves]] ([[User talk:MothWaves|talk]]) 19:43, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:I assumed he meant "seen directly with my eyes", so that a photograph would not count, but looking through a telescope during an astronomy night at the local University would count. And he hasn't looked *closely* at the Sun, because of the need for eye protection. [[User:JimJJewett|JimJJewett]] ([[User talk:JimJJewett|talk]]) 23:49, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Technically, spacecraft have landed on Mercury, Jupiter, and Saturn. Just not in a survivable manner. [[User:Redacted II|Redacted II]] ([[User talk:Redacted II|talk]]) 19:37, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:Have we really not sent anything directly into the Sun yet? [[User:JimJJewett|JimJJewett]] ([[User talk:JimJJewett|talk]]) 23:51, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
::The most "into the Sun" we've done is [https://science.nasa.gov/mission/parker-solar-probe/ the Parker Solar Probe], and it hasn't attempted to 'land' there (apart from that being effectively impossible, even beyond the likes of Cassini's final fall "onto" Saturn). It's also ''very hard'' to even send things into the Sun, because the direct method would need you to send a craft from Earth backwards at the same speed as the Earth orbits forwards (or very close to that), otherwise all you can do is fall ''past'' it and loop back up again. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.94|162.158.74.94]] 01:00, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
:No one even knows if Jupiter and Saturn have a *land* to land on. [[User:SDSpivey|SDSpivey]] ([[User talk:SDSpivey|talk]]) 14:54, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
::Sstill subject to further study, but the crushed and burnt (and probably unrecognisable) remains of the probes will be 'landed' (or floating on top of any layer that they're ultimately more buoyant than) down there, somewhere (unless they're totally ablated away, but there'll probably be ''some'' fragments of hi-tech metal frame, even if no circuit boards or metal foils survive) Should there be a form of life in existence down in the depths of the gas-giant's mass, with any curiosity to them, I imagine they'll be wondering what this new variety of 'space rain' is, that's totally unlike the usual ex-asteroidal/cometish stuff that they must occasionally get punching down through from the inaccessible upper reaches above their native environment. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.68|162.158.74.68]] 19:59, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

It looks like the Pluto error in Traditionalist and Modernist images were fixed. I now see Pluto highlighted in traditionalist and Pluto unhighlighted in Modern. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.7.91|172.68.7.91]] 19:44, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

indeed, it seems fine now, i removed my earlier comment--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.233.116|162.158.233.116]] 23:06, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

//Jean-Luc Margot wrote a serious planet definition proposal// in 2024 as a starting point for community conversations and welcomes feedback. In 2019 I wrote a small article myself on planet and moon classes simply by size. //Mondklassen "wwwahnsinn"// (in German).
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.108|162.158.159.108]] 19:49, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

I'm disputing that there has never been a formal definition of "planet" prior to 2006 - the ancient Greek definition of "wandering [relative to seemingly-fixed stars] points of light in the night sky" seems formal enough to me. I marked it {{tl|actual citation needed}}. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.227.73|198.41.227.73]] 19:52, 14 March 2025‎
: I've reworded the sentence to say "in modern times" so we aren't making unfounded and likely-incorrect claims about antiquity. [[Special:Contributions/198.41.227.73|198.41.227.73]] 21:19, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Does anyone else strongly dislike the term '''natural satellite''' replacing ''moon''? Under the new nomenclature, only Earth's moon is 'the Moon'. All other moons are now merely natural satellites. Phobos, Deimos, Ganymede, are no longer considered moons. My biggest problem with the new definition is that planets themselves are natural satellites of stars. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.182.225|172.71.182.225]] 20:13, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

It seems likely that the Saturnian moon highlighted in the Maritime definition is Titan, since it has liquid seas and lakes on its surface. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.6.5|172.69.6.5]] 21:54, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:I've noted in the Transcript that (despite apparently being ''identical'' pre-highlight drawings in all other ways, or at least very consistently reproduced), Saturn is given one moon ''most'' of the time, but two moons on occasion. Similarly, Uranus's moons (spread from upper-right to lower-left) do-or-do-not include the dot (in one case suffering a highlighting) moving across the face of the planet. From an analytical perspective, I'm wondering if Randall did indeed copypaste the 'normal' iillustration, but then have to manually add in "whoops, I forgot I need to highlight a further item thaat I haven't already drawn" into some of the established copies, touching up where necessary (and maybe where still not necessary too). ...But I'm not sure it matters what he did or did not do. It's just an observation about the result. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.79.190|172.69.79.190]] 23:03, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:Yeah, Titan's present in all the diagrams, and a second moon of Saturn shows up when highlighting is necessary. The bonus "Marine Biologist" planet is clearly Enceladus, but the bonus "Judgemental" planet doesn't line up with it: presumably it's one of Saturn's other moons. Which one? My wild guess is Iapetus. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.150.27|172.68.150.27]] 01:48, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

Great explanation, thank you, but was it really necessary to include a snide dig at Baby Boomers? Not a BB myself - I'm gen X, if we're using those facile labels - but surely we don't need to encourage intergenerational resentment and conflict. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.116|172.68.174.116]] 03:22, 15 March 2025 (UTC) 
As a historian, I strongly disagree with the snide definition of tradition. (No, not a BB.) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.212.132|162.158.212.132]] 07:40, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
:That's a direct quote from a prior comic, that whoever wrote it in the first placce ysed, so I've rewritten it to perhaps ''not'' look quite so much like some editor's own grudge/snidiness (which it may or may not be, but not without Randall giving justifiable precedent to say it). Maybe can be tweaked further, but it might be a shame to lose the inter-comic referential humour that (regardless of tone) is staple for this site. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.109|162.158.74.109]] 12:25, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
::I wrote it. No snideness intended. I thought the connection was topical. Unfortunately, thanks to the "Okay boomer" phenomenon, any reference to the generation comes across as condescending. The "Tradition" strip was published in 2011, and the phrase rose to popularity in 2019. It, like [[36]], is just one of those things that is not standing the test of time. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.47.89|172.70.47.89]] 20:22, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

I believe we're currently missing part of the joke in the mouseover text. Not only is Earth now a star because of human fusion, it's also no longer a planet, because, due to human satellites and spacecraft, it no longer clears its orbit.
[[Special:Contributions/198.41.227.42|198.41.227.42]] 06:20, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

Isn't the usual singular of criteria criterion? According to my dictionary, a criterium is a type of cycling race.--[[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.100|172.71.26.100]] 09:46, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
:Indeed. Maybe a thinko, though, rather. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.79.139|172.69.79.139]] 11:06, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

I am curious why only one of the Galilean moons counts as pretty, and I wonder which one (either Ganymede or Callisto, given where its drawn). They are all pretty to me, I like how surprisingly distinct they look from one another.
[[User:Terdragontra|Terdragontra]] ([[User talk:Terdragontra|talk]]) 13:18, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

Re title text: With the launch of the JWST, Earth has no longer cleared its orbital neighborhood, right? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.176.57|172.70.176.57]] 14:27, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

I tend to go by an expansive definition myself, considering all dwarf planets "planets" in my eyes. But I'm not like, arguing with the IAU's definition, this is just how I prefer to think of them, because dwarf planets are really cool. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.126.140|172.70.126.140]] 19:35, 15 March 2025 (UTC)

In the title text explanation, there's no mention of the inclusion of the phrase about Earth clearing its orbital neighborhood. I think this has something to do with all of our man-made satellites that have not been cleared from Earth's orbital neighborhood. Does anyone else think that's an important part of the title text and needs to be explained? [[User:Ianrbibtitlht|Ianrbibtitlht]] ([[User talk:Ianrbibtitlht|talk]]) 13:33, 16 March 2025 (UTC)

I think I like the "Recognizable" criteria. Something is a planet if it orbits the Sun and there exists at least one photograph of the object that a reasonably knowledgeable layperson can correctly identify. That would mean that all of the IAU defined planets are planets (except maybe Mercury), and that Pluto became a planet in 2015. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.245.141|172.68.245.141]] 14:34, 16 March 2025 (UTC)
:...there's a risk that Uranus and/or Neptune ("or both... hang on... which one's supposed to be bluer..? and is this one of those miscalibrated images or not..?") might drop out of the Recognisable grouping. And the Moon would be added, unless you arbitrarily banned near-side images, in which case it'd be demoted to "dunno" except by particularly adept selenophiles who probably even know the far-side, and limbs, like the back of their own hands. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.94|162.158.74.94]] 16:55, 16 March 2025 (UTC)

A definition I thought up a while ago that I'm pretty proud of is that a planet is an object that is not a star or moon, has a stable orbit around a star, and that has a larger mass than the largest moon in its solar system. (a moon is defined as having a barycenter inside an object that directly orbits the Sun). That way, there is a clear, natural, distinction of larger bodies and smaller ones that conforms to the public thinking of a planet as large and not a moon. By my definition, the planets are Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. (Though Mercury is famously smaller in radius than the moons Ganymede and Titan, it has more mass -- and given that mass grants greater gravity, I consider mass to be more important). My wider category of a world is for all star-orbiters that have differentiated layers, so the worlds in the Solar System would be (I think) Mercury, Venus, Earth, the Moon, Ceres, Vesta, Jupiter, Ganymede, Callisto, Europa, Io, Saturn, Titan, Uranus, Neptune, Triton, Pluto, Charon, Quaoar, Haumea, Makemake, Gonggong, Eris, and Sedna. This would be a harder category to assign than planet and a bit more fuzzy -- which plays in to the fuzzy use of world already existing -- but is still more clear cut than "gravitationally rounded" as no object is a perfect sphere and the strict definition of hydrostatic equilibrium means Mercury is not a planet. Of course, since no exomoons have been discovered as they are very hard to find, all exoplanets discovered would be planets -- which is nice and uncomplicated and natural for the human to assume that the bodies are planets. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.145|108.162.245.145]] 18:11, 16 March 2025 (UTC)
: Having the status of bodies be contingent on what is going on elsewhere seems even more problematic than current arguments over where artificial lines between categories should be drawn. In theory, Jupiter could capture a passing wandering planet and, under your system, instantly demote a bunch of the current planets to non-planets, even though nothing about them has actually changed.[[Special:Contributions/172.70.160.219|172.70.160.219]] 09:51, 18 March 2025 (UTC)
:: And, in a way, that's what happened to Pluto. Nobody was really bothered about it not having 'cleared' Neptune from its orbit (or, it appears, consider it a problem that Neptune hasn't cleared Pluto from its own, so already a partial fudge of meaning there) when it was an acceptible planet. Maybe the runt of the litter (comparing disfavourably against even some moons, including our own), but most people were happy to slide with it as one (with perhaps a bit more attention on Ceres, too, once more), even as it became clear that its own largest moon was more co-binary, and that there were a number of other (lesser) plutoids doing the same sort of thing. The 'sudden appearance' (i.e. realisation of) a larger (now dwarf-)planet changed that.
:: I mean, I'm not advocating for either turn of terminology (though I definitely grew up, and lived most my adult life, ''knowing'' that Pluto was a planet), but taxonomy of all kinds is tricky. Just ask Linnaeus. As more information overturns how we group things, even when the realities of the things we group don't themselves change. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.162.57|172.70.162.57]] 11:23, 18 March 2025 (UTC)

'''"Modern" vs "Current"'''. Does anyone feel frustrated when people confuse "modern", "contemporary", and "current"? "Modern" is post-1500, "contemporary" is the age someone lives in, and "current" is 'today'. Throughout 75 years of the modern era, Pluto 'was' considered a planet. Is anyone willing to shift non-canonical usage of "modern" to "current" in the article? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.95.28|172.71.95.28]] 15:59, 15 March 2025 (UTC)
: "''Modern" is post-1500''" -- '''Museum of '''Modern''' Art''', 1929/1930 until today (essentially Pluto's reign); works to 1885 --[[User:PRR|PRR]] ([[User talk:PRR|talk]]) 00:54, 17 March 2025 (UTC)
:: {{w|Modernity#Scientific}}. It varies a bit field by field, but in science, philosophy, and history, "modernity" begins around 1500. Western History is divided into classical antiquity, middle ages, and modernity. Oh, and Copernicus, father of modern (non-classical) astronomy? He lived 1473-1543. [[Special:Contributions/104.23.170.4|104.23.170.4]] 02:07, 20 March 2025 (UTC)

I added a bunch of Wikipedia citations. I went by the WP rule (citation needed) of linking the first non-parenthesized instance of a word/phrase. That does make for some awkward things, like lists with only some of the items linked, and the {{w|natural satellite|moon}} link in a mention under '''Simplistic''' rather than on the more relevant '''Lunar'''.
–[[User:P1h3r1e3d13|P1h3r1e3d13]] ([[User talk:P1h3r1e3d13|talk]]) 22:34, 14 March 2025 (UTC)
:That all went to pot a bit, anyway, when it was all transformed into a sortable table. (I'm a big fan of a handy table, in the right circumstances, but I'm not sure it was necessarily the better format in this case.) What might be best, in demanding a tabled case, is to have a table ''of objects'' (both displayed and referenced), and then explain in which comic-table rows they do (or should, or ''maybe'') appear. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.86.115|172.70.86.115]] 13:22, 20 March 2025 (UTC)

According to the "simplistic" definition, the rings themselves (also round) are separate planets. If the simplistic definition had merely been "spheroidal" rather than "round", they would not be. I'd love to see a version of the chart where Saturn is green, but the rings are white. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.99.166|172.71.99.166]] 23:36, 14 March 2025 (UTC)

Shouldn't the Utratraditionalist version of the solar system have 7 planets (including the Sun and the Moon)? [[Special:Contributions/172.68.245.136|172.68.245.136]] 15:15, 17 March 2025 (UTC)

Given that it is now considered a dwarf planet, and a lot of people, and perhaps the world itself, are unhappy, would it not be appropriate to rename it Grumpy?{{unsigned|Jmbryant|12:22, 18 March 2025}}

I wonder if this comic was tangentially inspired by the fairly recent discovery of a further 128 (suspiciously round number, that..!) moons of Saturn, making it now having well into the 200 'moons', on top of its ring-debris. And the possibility of the IAU having to weigh in and now officially decide what a ''moon'' is, especially in contrast to all the material in Saturn's rings (maybe broken up ex-moons, possibly raw material for future moon-clumps). One would suspect a version of "clear the area around the planet it orbits", and a (looser?) threshold of hydrostatic equilibreum/sphericity might be the starting point. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.43.221|172.69.43.221]] 13:54, 18 March 2025 (UTC)

There should be a “Dayist” list of objects that have a day of the week named after them: Sun (Sunday), Moon (Monday), Mercury (Tuesday), Jupiter (Wednesday), Mars (Thursday), Venus (Friday), and Saturn (Staurday).
[[Special:Contributions/172.69.67.147|172.69.67.147]] 19:56, 18 March 2025 (UTC)
:Mild correction: Tuesday is named for Mars, Mercury lends its name to Wednesday, and Jupiter Thursday. Also this would be the Ultratraditionalist definition, but Randall excluded the Sun and Moon from that for some reason. {{unsigned ip|108.162.227.64|12:12, 7 April 2025‎}}
::Depends upon your pantheon, and your interpretations/inter-relations with the others. Wednesday is named for Wodan/Wotan/Odin/etc, the head of the Norse-like gods, so is equivalent to Jove/Jupiter of the Latinesque pantheon (even though latinesque day-naming indeed goes instead with Mercury to inspire "Mercredi"/etc). By tradition, Odin ''was'' also associated with Mercury, but it's so mixed up that it still might not be particularly germane in this case.
::Tuesday ''is'' more Mars, Týr/Tiw being the son of Odin (maybe, could also be from the not-god/jottun Hymir) who has the aspect of conflict and thus is Mars the mediteranean god and directly Mars the planet.
::Thusday (being Thor) does not normally ''have'' a planet associated with him. Sometimes (instead of Odin), being equated to Jove/Jupiter (probably the lightning, as from the Zeus of the Greek equivalence/basis for Roman theistic lore), but at other times more just Hercules (planetless). I dare say that those more familiar with some of his MCU appearances probably would say war/Mars, these days!
::The core Anglo-Saxon (and a lot of the unsyncratic versions of the northern-European legends, before Rome started trying to say "you worship <'pagan' god>, and that's ok, because we recognise them too, as an aspect of <Roman god>, and will gladly build/improve a temple dedicated to <pagano-Roman synthesis version> as a token of you all now being Roman!") didn't really do so much "days<-+->planets linking". "Saturday" used to be "Washing day", before Saturn (as a figure from the Roman myth, technically considered the same as the Titan Cronos, who was in that case more a "season of harvests" figure than one given a day, but the mixing and matching is somewhat complicated across this original 'home' region) made his way into that position. Further cultures may well have other ideas, probably beyond the scope of this explanation, and I think even 'close' non-anglo interpretations (e.g. the Romance tradition) shouldn't be looked at beyond what ''is'' the current not-all-planets list. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.195.121|172.69.195.121]] 14:36, 7 April 2025 (UTC)

Might be worth mentioning that Neil DeGrasse Tyson was a proponent(ish) of the "Condescending" view "He said he'd take all four rocky planets in our solar system — Earth, Mars, Mercury and Venus — and call them dwarf planets rather than admit Pluto to the planet club."- https://www.space.com/29960-stephen-colbert-pluto-neil-tyson-video.html [[Special:Contributions/172.70.42.168|172.70.42.168]] 21:29, 18 March 2025 (UTC)

The reactionary traditionalists ought to be told that if Pluto is a planet, then so is Eris, so even then, there would not be nine planets, but 10. (No mention on whether it's in the 8th dimension) -- {{unsigned|KeithTyler|22:39, 19 March 2025 (UTC)}}
:''Two'' planets: Pluto and Eris. And, as with "King Buns", Pluto is the most important! [[Special:Contributions/172.70.86.115|172.70.86.115]] 13:22, 20 March 2025 (UTC)

1644: Stargazing

2025-04-05T15:52:11Z

172.70.163.109: /* The host's observations */

{{comic
| number = 1644
| date = February 17, 2016
| title = Stargazing
| image = stargazing.png
| titletext = Some of you may be thinking, 'But wait, isn't the brightest star in our sky the Sun?' I think that's a great question and you should totally ask it. On the infinite tree of possible conversations spread out before us, I think that's definitely the most promising branch.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|The [[#Trivia]] section is a mess. Need to clean it up and use coherent sentences.}}

This is the first comic in the [[:Category:Stargazing|Stargazing]] series. It was followed by [[2017: Stargazing 2]] two and a half years later.

This comic opens on [[Megan]] as the host for a {{w|stargazing}} TV show, or simply a stargazing tour. She claims to be a doctor, although it is unclear what exactly she's a doctor of. Her remarks, however, may call her professionalism into question. (Originally the host was suspected to be a spoof on {{w|Brian Cox (physicist)|Brian Cox}}, see [[#Relevant TV-shows|below]], but at some later point [[Randall]] changed his official transcript thus making the host female rather than male as in the original version, see the [[#Trivia|trivia]] section below. Thus now the host is clearly Megan, which it could not have been originally when the host was described as a man by Randall).

Throughout the comic the host's tone and choice of words becomes increasingly unprofessional, referring to most of the stars as "shitty," personifying them based on different astronomical observations, and providing little useful information on the study of stars or how they work. It seems that this is not an isolated issue as the host mentions that people keep asking her whether or not she is a real astronomer. The host also continuously glosses over the arguably less exciting portions of a typical presentation on astronomy sharing only what she sees as "the good stuff." This penchant for only caring about something if it is interesting extends past astronomy as well as the host is too bored when reading the dictionary to look up the meaning of astronomer.

The comic derives much of its humor from the absurdity of the host's comments on various astronomical bodies. Although not technically incorrect, the way she presents the information is far from informative. (See details below on [[#The host's observations|the host's observations]]). One of her observations regards the fact that {{w|Sirius}} is a {{w|binary star}}, a system where two stars orbit each other. So even though it is the brightest star as seen from Earth we only really see one of them, as the other is, to quote the host, "not even trying". Sirius A is "large" and "bright" {{w|main sequence}} white star, while Sirius B is a {{w|white dwarf}} with a little under half the mass, 0.49% the radius and only 0.22% the luminosity of Sirius A.

{{w|Andromeda Galaxy|Andromeda}} is the largest galaxy in our {{w|Local Group}}. It is 220,000 light years across and contains a trillion stars. Humans have difficulty conceptualizing distances of this scale. Suffice to say that it is very large.{{Citation needed}} {{w|Betelgeuse}} is the 9th brightest star visible from earth. One of its prominent features is its visible redness. Within the next million years (or maybe only 100,000 years) it is expected to explode as a {{w|supernova}}, which will certainly be a spectacular sight. It could happen anytime now, and the host hopes it will be in her lifetime. See also [[1371: Brightness]] and [[1342: Ancient Stars]]. Saying cool things about space to make people like you is mentioned in [[1746: Making Friends]].

In the title text it is mentioned that the {{w|Sun}} is also a star and of course is much brighter than Sirius seen from Earth, and thus Sirius is technically not the brightest star in our sky (although it is in the night sky). The title text sarcastically encourages the audience to raise that obvious but irrelevant point (a standard joke when people mention bright stars) instead of asking a more interesting, informative, or fruitful question, when there are so many to ask regarding astronomy.

===The host's observations===
Here is a list of the host's observations:

;Most {{w|Bright Star Catalogue|visible stars}} are still very faint, and just become background to the bright {{w|stars}} that form the named {{w|constellations}}.
:The host correctly states that they are just dots. (This is also true for the bright stars, but at least they are clearly distinguishable).

;{{w|Sirius}} is the {{w|Apparent magnitude|brightest}} star in our {{w|List of brightest stars|night sky}}, which of course also excludes the Sun itself. But it is not the brightest object in the night sky, as several of the planets, especially {{w|Venus}} and {{w|Jupiter}}, and of course the {{w|Moon}} are much brighter. It is also far from being one of the most {{w|Absolute magnitude|luminous stars}} in the {{w|Milky Way}}, but its proximity to Earth makes it the brightest in the night sky. For instance, {{w|Betelgeuse}}, mentioned later in the comic, is thousands of times more luminous than Sirius, but it is so farther away that it appears dimmer.
:The host thus names Sirius as the star in charge since it outshines all the others as seen from the {{w|Earth}}.

;Sirius is actually a star system consisting of two stars: a {{w|binary star}} system. But though Sirius A is twice the size of the {{w|Sun}} and much brighter, Sirius B is currently just a dim {{w|white dwarf}}, the remains of a much larger star that became a {{w|red giant}} before shedding its outer layers and collapsing into its current state around 120 million years ago. So now Sirius A completely outshines Sirius B, which actually is now a dead star with no further fusion inside its core.
:This is construed by the host as it is barely even trying, as it is now only radiating away the rest of the heat from the now-exposed core.

;{{w|Andromeda Galaxy|Andromeda}} is a {{w|spiral galaxy}}, like the Milky Way, and it is the largest galaxy in the {{w|Local Group}} where our own galaxy the Milky Way is the second largest. It is one of a few visible objects that are located outside the Milky Way. It is "only" 2.5 million light-years from the Sun and it is heading our way (or vice versa), and will {{w|Andromeda–Milky Way collision|collide with the Milky way}} in about 4 billion years (before the Sun goes into {{w|Sun#After_core_hydrogen_exhaustion|its red giant phase}}). Being 220,000 light years across and consisting of a trillion stars, it is somewhere between 1.2-2.2 times wider than the Milky Way and has 2.5-10 times as many stars. (The local group was also mentioned two comics ago, in [[1642: Gravitational Waves]], together with the much less well known third largest galaxy in the group the {{w|Triangulum Galaxy}}).
:It is therefore true when the host says that it is too big to try to understand, and thinking about it will make your head spin, so she suggests we do not think about it.

;{{w|Betelgeuse}} is a clearly visible (9th brightest) {{w|Red_supergiant|red supergiant}} {{w|Semiregular_variable_star|variable star}} located in the {{w|Orion (constellation)|constellation of Orion}}. It is one of the largest and most luminous observable stars (12th) and one of the few where it is clear that the light is not white. Most people can see that it is slightly red, whereas most other stars are so faint that they look white despite having different colors (when seeing Orion's two brightest stars, to remember which is which between Rigel and Betelgeuse, its diagonal opposite, just remember: Rigel is "R" like blue, and Betelgeuse is "B" like red). It is expected that Betelgeuse, being at a late stage of its {{w|Stellar_evolution|evolution}}, will go supernova within the next 100,000 years as a {{w|type II supernova}}. The exact time when it will become a {{w|Supernova}} is so uncertain that it could [http://earthsky.org/brightest-stars/betelgeuse-will-explode-someday#explode just as likely happen tomorrow] as in a 100,000 years. When it happens it will not be dangerous to anyone on Earth, but it will likely be visible even during the day, as it may even become as bright as the full Moon.
:When it does go nova, it will be a fantastic spectacle for everyone, but especially for anyone who likes the ''good stuff'' in space like the host, who cannot wait for the star to explode. Clearly she hopes it will be in her lifetime, and, although this is unlikely, there is a small chance that it might just happen.

;A {{w|meteor}} (also known as {{w|shooting star}}), is debris from space that rains down on Earth, and burns up in the atmosphere. This happens all the time, but you need to be either lucky, patient, or know the right time for one of the {{w|meteor showers}} to see one. Often they are visible for so short a time period, that it is difficult to share the experience with anyone, as it will be gone by the time they turn their head to look where you are pointing.
:The host becomes very excited when she spots such a meteor, especially because it is likely that her audience got to share the experience with her, as they were already looking in the same direction as her. But still she asks if they saw it, because it is so short lived.

;{{w|Outer space}} is the void that exists between {{w|Astronomical object|celestial bodies}}, including the Earth. There is by definition nothing there but {{w|vacuum}}, and the interesting part of space is thus not the space but the astronomical objects found out there.
:The host says that ''space is awesome'', which is a very un-astronomical comment, as explained above. Also her excitement for a simple shooting star is cause for the suspicion that is raised after her space comment.

;A {{w|dictionary}} is a reference resource for words. Unless otherwise specified (as a "Dictionary of ''<some theme>''"), it contains a significant proportion of ''all'' words in the language(s) it covers.
:The host considers the dictionary ''boring'', which suggests that she is not even familiar with how to zero in on a word and its definition. For a typical and expected English dictionary (unless she made further errors) the word "Astronomer" is actually quite near the start, but it still would have been a large number of words needing to be read past (e.g. "a ... aardvark ... abandon ... abbey ... abbreviation ... ability ...") if one tried to find the word by slavishly checking every entry on the way up to it. It adds to the suspicion that the host's actual expertise isn't in either space ''or'' any more normal and grounded matters but {{tvtropes|Cloudcuckoolander|somewhere else entirely}}.

===Relevant TV-shows===
The comic could be a reference to BBC's ''{{w|Stargazing Live}}'', which {{w|Brian Cox (physicist)|Brian Cox}} has appeared in since 2011. If drawn in xkcd style he would likely look like Megan. He has a PhD in high-energy {{w|particle physics}}, but not astronomy. The newest season of the show aired during January 2016 just a month before this comic's release. Brian Cox has also been the presenter of several other science programs, especially such as the ''{{w|Wonders of the Solar System}}'', ''{{w|Wonders of the Universe}}'' and ''{{w|Wonders of Life (TV series)|Wonders of Life}}''. Originally the host was described as male in the official transcript (see [[#Trivia|trivia]] below), making this seem more likely. For some reason Randall changed the host to female in the transcript later. Very strange, but for sure when he was male, it was obviously a Brian Cox spoof.

It could also be a reference to {{w|Jack Horkheimer}}'s PBS shows ''Star Hustler'' and ''{{w|Star Gazers}}''. Horkheimer, however, does not at all look like Megan, and he died 6 years ago. But he was not a doctor in astronomy, only getting into it when he started volunteering at the Miami Museum of Science's planetarium. He ended up writing shows for the planetarium and the PBS series developed from there. He rarely covered facts about the night sky that couldn't be found in any basic reference (possibly because the show was aimed at children and non-astronomy buffs), although he did get more in-depth about current astronomical events such as {{W|Comet Hale–Bopp}}.

==Transcript==
:[A thin panel with Megan as a TV-host is holding her hands up. She is drawn in white on a black background. Behind her is an audience drawn in faint gray lines consisting of Hairy (to the left) and two Cueball-like guys and Ponytail (seen in a rare full face position) to the right of the host. One of the Cueball-like guys is partly hidden behind the host.]
:Host: Welcome to stargazing, with your host, me.
:Host: I'm a doctor or whatever.

:[Same scene as before but in a broader panel, and the host is now holding only one hand up with a finger pointing up. The audience is the same four people, but now Hairy has moved further to the left in the panel to make room for a Megan-like woman also to the left of the host.]
:Host: I'm not gonna waste your time on the shitty stars.
:Host: Just the good stuff.
:Host: Honestly half of 'em just look like dots.

:[A frame-less drawing with a zoom out showing the group of six people in black silhouette on a white background. Part of the ground beneath them is shown as a black pool. The host is pointing up with one hand. The people have been rearranged, so left of the host is now a Cueball-like guy and a Megan-like woman, and to the right is the other Cueball-like guy, then Ponytail (seen from the side as usual) and Hairy. All are looking up following the host's directions.]
:Host: This is Sirius. It's the brightest star in our sky so it's in charge.
:Host: It's really two stars but one of them is barely even trying.
:Host: This is Andromeda, it's too big to think about, so let's not.

:[Zoom in of the host's upper body, again drawn in white on a black background. She is looking right gesturing with one arm raised, and the other still pointing up with a finger stretched out. Her audience is no longer shown.]
:Host: That red stars is Betelgeuse. It's gonna explode someday.
:Host: Can't happen soon enough, as far as I'm concerned. I-
:Host: ''Holy shit did you see that meteor!?!''
:Host: Space is ''awesome!''

:[Same scene as the previous panel, but the host has turned towards left looking at someone in the audience (not shown) who speaks off-screen. She has taken both her hands down for the first time.]
:Off-screen voice: Are you ''sure'' you're an astronomer?
:Host: People keep asking that, so I finally tried to look that word up in a dictionary, and ''wow'' is that book ever boring. No thank you.
:Off-screen voice: But-
:Host: ''Space!''

==Trivia==
*In the [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/archive/4/48/20160221022727!stargazing.png original version of the comic], the third panel said "'''That's''' Andromeda" instead of "'''This is''' Andromeda".
*The official transcript [https://web.archive.org/web/20160913162302/http://xkcd.com/1646/info.0.json originally] used male pronouns for the TV host. It now (as of 2019) uses female pronouns for the host.
**The official transcripts seems to have been messed up on xkcd at the time being.
***The [http://xkcd.com/1644/info.0.json transcript for 1644] is thus at the moment a mix of that comics main info (top and bottom) which results in the correct title and title text, but the entire description in this transcript is describing the comic from two releases before no. [[1642]].
***This seems to be a general problem for comics released around that time...
***Thus the description of this comic, was first released when comic no. [[1646]] came out.
***This has not been corrected (4 years later at the time of writing)!
****So the official transcript for 1644 can be found [http://xkcd.com/1646/info.0.json here], together with the data for comic 1646.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Stargazing]]
[[Category:Comics sharing name|Stargazing]]
[[Category:Comics with inverted brightness]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Multiple Cueballs]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]
[[Category:Space]]
[[Category:Comics edited after their publication]]

Category talk:Incomplete explanations

2025-04-03T15:43:13Z

172.70.163.109: Undo revision 371218 by 172.70.80.3 (talk) Bad edit.

==Main Page==
Why is the main page in this category? [[User:Schiffy|Schiffy]] ([[User_talk:Schiffy|Speak to me]]|[[Special:Contributions/Schiffy|What I've done]]) 18:51, 22 June 2013 (UTC)
: Because the current comic is transcluded in it, and as the most recent page, it usually contains the {{tl|incomplete}} tag. You'll notice that the main page is also included in the categories that the current comic happens to be part of. We really ought to figure out a way to avoid that... --[[User:Waldir|Waldir]] ([[User talk:Waldir|talk]]) 15:57, 21 November 2013 (UTC)

== Incomplete explanations bolded in category pages? ==

Is this possible? I believe this could help explaining the rest of the comics faster, by directing even more attention towards them. [[User:MrGameZone|0100011101100001011011010110010101011010011011110110111001100101]] ([[User talk:MrGameZone|talk page]]) 04:25, 16 July 2014 (UTC)
:It's not actually possible to assign attributes to a link based on what category the page behind it is, although it is possible to assign custom CSS to pages in a category. Also, good lord your signature. '''[[User:Davidy22|{{Color|#707|David}}y²²]]'''[[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>[talk]</tt>]] 07:06, 16 July 2014 (UTC)

== Terminator Category Incomplete? ==

Why is the terminator category listed as incomplete?[[User:NotLock|NotLock]] ([[User talk:NotLock|talk]]) 18:37, 12 October 2015 (UTC)

== Change incomplete explanation every week or month? ==

I was wondering if we should change the incomplete explanation of the day maybe not every day but at least every week or month so that other explanations could get some attention, Online Communities 2 is a hard comic to write an explanation for, if it's rotated then simpler comics could get good explanations and Online Communities 2 could get rotated back in later.
21:58, 8 February 2016 (UTC)~

== Number Sorting ==

What happened to the number sorting? One day they're all together under no heading, the next they're slumming it under the number initial headings. I know how it works (I changed the default sorts for 980: Money/Prices in tables and 1190: Time/Translator (again) so they were with their parent pages (again)), but why this sudden change in ordering? Anonymous 21:05, 11 March 2016 (UTC)

== Requests ==

DON'T PUT ONLINE COMMUNITIES 2 IN THE SPOTLIGHT. THE SPOTLIGHT IS FOR BAD COMIC EXPLANATIONS, NOT HUGE COMICS WHO'S EXPLANATIONS ARE GREAT BUT DON'T HAVE EVERY GRATING DETAIL! PUT THE SPOTLIGHT ON SOMETHING ELSE!

802 isn't even considered "incomplete" anymore. Could someone get it out of the spotlight? Thanks. {{unsigned}}

:Done '''[[User:Davidy22|{{Color|#707|David}}y²²]]'''[[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>[talk]</tt>]] 16:04, 26 April 2016 (UTC)

:Learn how to spell whose.

:How do you edit the notice and why does it say 2034 is incomplete when it's not? [[User:Lysdexia|Lysdexia]] ([[User talk:Lysdexia|talk]]) 01:57, 5 January 2019 (UTC)

It's been stuck in 1688 for like, forever. Can someone write a scrip that prevents the "big" comics from being put in the spotlight? Also, some of the comics are still incomplete because of one small thing that we know nothing about (what on earth is Pseudoephedrine?!?!?!?!?!?), but most readers won't want to know about it. So can we just finish the explanations without explaing those things?

Here's a request: change the header from 1688: map age guide to 1975: right click or 1193: externalities as map age guide is complete.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.71.10|172.69.71.10]] 14:57, 9 November 2021 (UTC)BUmpf (yes i know i made pretty much the same comment on map age guide but shhhh)
: PLEEEEEEEAAAAAASSSEEEE Ms/Mr/Mrs/Dr/Whatever monitor, remove "Map Age Guide" from the header. 17:18, 15 April 2022 (UTC)

== No incomplete explanations ==
What do we do now? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.243|108.162.237.243]] 16:43, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
:Proofread [[User:Lackadaisical|Lackadaisical]] ([[User talk:Lackadaisical|talk]]) 16:54, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
:: We have exactly as many incomplete explanations as we did two days ago. An IP and a ridiculously fresh account (not sure if one user or two) deleted all the remaining "incomplete" templates in a dozen or so successive edits. This is vandalism in all but name (and that only because no one else seemed to notice). If nobody else complains, I'm putting them all back tomorrow morning. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.10.43|172.68.10.43]] 18:07, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
::Just do it now, I don't think anyone's going to stop you.[[User:Lackadaisical|Lackadaisical]] ([[User talk:Lackadaisical|talk]]) 18:14, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
:::Just noticed it too, exercising the rollback button. '''[[User:Davidy22|{{Color|#707|David}}y²²]]'''[[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>[talk]</tt>]] 19:49, 15 June 2016 (UTC)

== Why complete them? ==

Right now, all pages are completed, according to one random sample of 5 pages.
Proportionally, if the amount of incomplete explanations remain stagnant, they will be a negligible amount of the total pagecount in about 9000 pages.
The solution, of course, is not to complete uncompleted explanations, but to work together to discover immortality before Randall drops dead.
This is obviously a more reasonable solution than fixing the incomplete pages. --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.58.83|172.68.58.83]] 18:29, 1 October 2018 (UTC)
:I picked five random chars and all are not vowels - my conclusion: The alphabet doesn't contain vowels. You probably understand my point. And more seriously we have three different types of incomplete explanations here:
:*recent comics (more than a week ago) still needing a review
:*serious reasons given in the tag
:*BIG comics probably never will get complete, but people like to add some details time by time
:So, you're right that most is assumed to be complete, but even that's not true. You always can be sure that most people here working on the latest explanations, and Randall is far away from dropping dead. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 21:44, 1 October 2018 (UTC)

== Fresh Pairs ==

Let's see whether getting 100% completion happens before Megan gets her [[Fresh Pears]].[[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.40|172.68.211.40]] 05:50, 1 October 2019 (UTC)

== Should this category be split? Renamed? ==

'''SPLIT'''

If this category is used to describe three groups of strips (quoting Dgbrt):

# recent comics (more than a week ago) still needing a review
# serious reasons given in the tag
# BIG comics probably never will get complete, but people like to add some details time by time
... then it seems that this should be three categories:

# could and probably should just be a list of the most recent N strips, if it's even needed at all.
# seems like it might be a fun category to browse and edit if one has time on their hands, but these pages are not incomplete in any meaningful sense, and probably shouldn't be here because there can be no valid definition of done for them.
# is the list of "open questions", and feels like the only ones that truly should be in this category.

'''RENAME'''

The category itself, because of its ambiguous name, is perpetually wrong. Because of this, there's been much discussion on it here, on the main page, etc. I'd argue for renaming it to "Open Questions". That makes the removal criteria (the "definition of done") for the tag far clearer, and encourages people to be bold and remove it once they feel they have answered the question.

Ideally the template would have an "answered" flag or date field instead that they could set, which would allow it to be added to a "needs verification" category, for other editors to check it to verify it really was answered. But that might be way overcomplicating things. -- [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.27|162.158.75.27]] 17:43, 21 February 2022 (UTC)

== Add Incomplete Transcripts to the top bar ==

Highlighting the Incomplete Explanations category but not the Incomplete Transcripts category is causing a huge disparity between the number of incomplete explanations and incomplete transcripts despite most transcripts being complete, and just not having editors come by and remove the incomplete tag once the comic goes off the incomplete explanations category. We should add it as an extra number along side the explanations like 'We still have X explanations and Y transcripts we need to complete. All incomplete explanations are here and all incomplete transcripts are here' with links to their appropriate category pages. Would direct more users towards editing and completing transcripts. {{unsigned|Xurkitree10|18:26, 28 September 2024}}
:Seems like a good idea to me. Especially as the Transcript incomplete tags don't have an auxiliary humorous purpose, unlike the customisable top-of-Explanation one.
:But a bit of a guide as to what is expected would be nice, on the way to visiting 'i complete transcripts' to have a go. Colon-indented, []s surrounding descriptions, not relying upon formatting (colour/tables, esp. certainly explain such things in text descriptors), no wikilinking/etc (that's for the Explanation bit). That ''sort'' of thing, anyway, if I've got any of that wrong off the top of my head. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.74.49|162.158.74.49]] 20:52, 28 September 2024 (UTC)

== Duplicate ==
This talk page may be a duplicate of [[Template talk:incomplete|this page]]. [[User:CommunityGuidelines|CommunityGuidelines]] ([[User talk:CommunityGuidelines|talk]]) 11:47, 30 November 2024 (UTC)

== An edit I can't do. ==

I just put in the "(This includes categories of comics that have been created recently. New comic transcripts are currently marked as incomplete automatically, to be removed later once they're considered 'complete', although they may still attract further editing.)" edit in the equivalent Incomplete Transcripts page, and would do something similar here (not quite understanding the "need to add to more comics", but thinking it means that it ''will'' be added to more (future) comics, as their pages get created). Someone who can edit this (as IP, I can't) might want to copy the same sort of editing I did there, to here, and/or further rewrite in both places so it says what it really means to say in a less confusing manner (i.e. unconfuse me!)... As you think best. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.85.71|172.70.85.71]] 19:07, 17 February 2025 (UTC)
:I think i did what you asked? --[[User:FaviFake|FaviFake]] ([[User talk:FaviFake|talk]]) 17:49, 18 February 2025 (UTC)

Talk:3059: Water Damage

2025-03-06T16:29:22Z

172.70.163.109:

I suppose that there'd be no way to make a 'no fault' claim on your policy. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.248|141.101.98.248]] 18:22, 5 March 2025 (UTC)
: Bravo![[Special:Contributions/172.70.163.15|172.70.163.15]] 09:57, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

Will I have to buy a lithospheric humidifier if I live in a boat? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.190.58|172.71.190.58]] 18:54, 5 March 2025 (UTC)

So is this a series now? Should we make a tag? [[User:Mushrooms|Mushrooms]] ([[User talk:Mushrooms|talk]]) 18:56, 5 March 2025 (UTC)

: Probably so. Maxwell's Demon was made a category with only three examples, so I don't see why subduction can't also be a category with 1194, 1388, 1829, 2616, 3021, 3059, and almost 2987. [[User:StapleFreeBatteries|StapleFreeBatteries]] ([[User talk:StapleFreeBatteries|talk]]) 09:00, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

um guys, you might wanna check the new what if video [[User:CalibansCreations|'''Caliban''']] ([[User talk:CalibansCreations|talk]]) 19:04, 5 March 2025 (UTC)

What is going on with the templates? [[User:TomtheBuilder|TomtheBuilder]] ([[User talk:TomtheBuilder|talk]]) 19:28, 5 March 2025 (UTC)

He's on a real geology kick lately huh. Unfortunately zero of them are funny. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.154.238|162.158.154.238]] 19:32, 5 March 2025 (UTC)
:Are you kidding? He rocks! Igneously, sedimentarily ''and'' metamorphically! [[Special:Contributions/172.69.195.4|172.69.195.4]] 21:04, 5 March 2025 (UTC)
::Oh, you mean ingeniously, sentimentally, and metaphorically. Yes. [[User:DKMell|DKMell]] ([[User talk:DKMell|talk]]) 02:53, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

Ponytail is likely wrong here. Water leads to partial melting of the mantle above the slab, not the crust itself. [[User:Rhesus|Rhesus]] ([[User talk:Rhesus|talk]]) 08:15, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

An insurance company could totally defraud millions of Home and business owners by selling too cheap earthquake and volcano insurance with really long lifetimes before installing lithospheric dehumidifiers to make those phenomenons extremely rare. Homeowners beware! [[Special:Contributions/162.158.103.36|162.158.103.36]] 13:29, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

Could we make a category for house related things, with comics like this one and the fridge one and the life hacks series? genuine question I don't fully understand categories.--[[User:Calpurnia Tate|Calpurnia Tate]] ([[User talk:Calpurnia Tate|talk]]) 13:55, 6 March 2025 (UTC)
:It can be done (not by me, but I've probably seen well over half the comic-category categories created). If you think that it's useful, I would suggest:
:*Either here, below, or in the Community Portal pages, lay out your case.
:*It helps if you suggest a name (or several alternatives) to encompass what you think is "a subject". Could be ''really'' broad ("Houses"), but I think you're looking to something a lot tighter. (Not quite knowing what you have in mind, so far, I'll wait until I see your next step before seriously suggesting/critiquing the possible choice(s)...)
:*List the candidate comics. Obviously [[3059: Water Damage]], and very likely [[3037: Radon]], but "the fridge one" immediately reminds me of two different ones you could mean, for different reasons (possibly you'd want them both, and other 'fridge ones' I'm currently not counting!). My inkling is that ''some'' of the Life Hacks are relevent to your idea (e.g. [[1494: Insurance]], but maybe not for that reason), though not others. And maybe checking the existing [[:Category:Tips]] (or similar) will add some (but not all) of that Cat to your list. ...in short demonstrate that "house related things" is a sane group (to which we can also attach a sane name).
:*There's several people here who I know will see the fleshed out idea and might well implement it (hopefully not before others have chance to provide feedback, and... dare I suggest it... I might pop back up with steering suggestiions!). Certainly more likely to do so when justified. You should ''not'' (though people do) just add <nowiki>[[Some Category Name]]</nowiki> to the bottom of pages, seemingly at random, and hope someone will un-Redlink this Cat for you after the fact (it's harder to check what you're thinking of including).
:*As and when it ''is'' set up, the resulting Cat-listing page can be freely nicified, maybe made a member of a some super-Cat, other categories made members of ''it'' and any further comics that you (and others) had accidentally not noted as equivalent can be added so easily. But we need to know where to start from. Which is up to you. (Or, having posited the possibility, someone else may jump in with a convincing grouping ...no guarantee it'll match what you think, though.)
:Not the only way to procede (nor necessarily the most thorough), but a way which covers most of the bases. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.91.245|172.70.91.245]] 15:53, 6 March 2025 (UTC)
::A couple of possible suggestions that are a little more specific than 'House-related':
::* 'Building Inspection' would cover these two and the fractal building plan one, but probably not the others mentioned
::* 'Home Improvements' might (debatably) cover these and the one where where he's trying to use 'reverse aircon' to cool down the outside (was this 'the fridge one'?)
::Can't think of anything that would cover all those indicated without being too vague as a category, though.[[Special:Contributions/172.70.163.109|172.70.163.109]] 16:29, 6 March 2025 (UTC)

3037: Radon

2025-03-05T21:16:10Z

172.70.163.109: Restoring the *actual* title text. (You can't even usably embed XML tags within another XML tag's internal parameterised data, or shouldn't be able to...)

{{comic
| number = 3037
| date = January 13, 2025
| title = Radon
| image = radon_2x.png
| imagesize = 740x291px
| noexpand = true
| titletext = A good ²³⁸Umbrella policy should cover it.
}}

==Explanation==
In this comic, [[Ponytail]] approaches [[Cueball]] about the concentration of {{w|radon}} in his basement. This refers to a common phenomenon where the levels of radon gases can build up in enclosed spaces over time; they form out of traces of {{w|uranium}} embedded in the surrounding bedrock/soils of most basements, and in the silicate minerals used in the concrete of the foundation. This uranium (over time, and in most cases via the midpoint of thorium) releases radon as a gas whilst experiencing alpha decay, although the time in which this occurs is noticeably long. Uranium-238 (238U or U-238), the isotope mentioned in the title text, has a half-life of 4.5 billion years, which is about the age of the Earth. Over the whole Earth, roughly 2.8 ppm of the planet is made of uranium;<ref>https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/uranium-mining-overview</ref> this is about 0.00028% of the planet, which weighs about 5.9722×1024 kilograms.<ref>https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html</ref> Even so, if uranium existed in the Earth's crust alone - about 1% of the Earth's total mass itself - this would imply that there is  1.67×1019 kilograms of uranium across the entire planet. Thus, radon gas is a relatively commonplace phenomenon, and {{w|radon mitigation}} techniques are frequently employed to keep the air safe and breathable. Basements, in particular, are known to accumulate radon gas if they are kept sealed over a long enough time, that is, with the windows and doors closed. Small cracks in the house's foundation may allow some radon gas to seep inside, which can be cleared if the basement is properly ventilated. Radon is denser than air, but this isn't why it accumulates in basements; it mixes completely with air, and does not "settle out" because of its atomic weight or density. Rather, its concentrations are higher in the basement than elsewhere in a building because the basement is adjacent to rock and the house foundation where it is generated, and because of the relatively poor air circulation usual in basements. Undisturbed, the concentration of radon reaches a steady state in a given area, between accumulation from being generated, and removal by air circulation and by radioactive decay.

In the comic Cueball is getting his house inspected; this is common in preparation for selling the home. Inspector Ponytail finds an excessive level of radon in the basement. Often when problems are found in a home, it's due to the age of the building, since technology has improved over time and building codes have added requirements in parallel.

But rather than inquire about the age of the home, Ponytail asks about the age of the planet on which it was built. The answer would be the same for all houses on Earth.{{cn}} Apparently she's an interstellar inspector, testing properties on many different planets in different star systems with different levels of radon - since most planets in a given system form within a few million years of each other and would have similar levels of radon. Earth's age of 4.5 billion years is about the same as the half-life of U-238, so radon levels are high because much of the original uranium is still in the process of decaying. She recommends waiting 100 billion years - much longer than the expected lifetime of Cueball, the building, and the Sun as we know it - enough to cause U-238 to decay to a trivial amount, not factoring in other daughter nuclides due to their comparatively shorter half-life.

The Sun is an example of a G-type {{w|main sequence}} star, also known as a yellow dwarf, which the inspector notes is a short-lived star. In the next 1 billion years the Sun will {{w|Sun#Main_sequence|become more luminous and end life on Earth}}, and in 4 to 7 billion years the Sun's outer layers will expand, turning it into a red giant that will likely {{w|Sun#After_core_hydrogen_exhaustion|engulf the Earth}}. If we'd 'built' around an M-type red dwarf we could have comfortably waited for the uranium to fully decay, though being in the habitable zone of a red dwarf [https://aasnova.org/2016/09/14/are-stellar-storms-bad-news-for-m-dwarf-planets/ has its own difficulties].

The title text for this comic mentions an {{w|umbrella insurance|umbrella policy}}, a type of insurance policy that covers damages beyond those covered by another, primary policy. It makes a joke with the isotope representation of uranium-238 being 238U, and is something that Cueball might need to consult with after handling the issue of radon gas in his home; most states in the United States, for instance, require property disclosure forms to be filled out if radon levels surpass a certain threshold.<ref>https://www.eli.org/sites/default/files/files-pdf/Final%202022%20Radon_0.pdf</ref> This text may also be an oblique reference to the concept of a {{w|nuclear umbrella}}, an altogether different kind of "insurance".

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball is on the left and is approached by Ponytail, who is reading a Geiger counter in her hand and holding a toolbox in her other hand.]
:Ponytail: Radon levels in your basement are pretty high.
:Ponytail: When was the planet under this home built?

:[Ponytail stops walking and lowers the Geiger counter.]
:Cueball: Uhh, about 4½ billion years ago, I think?
:Ponytail: Oof. I was afraid of that.

:[A frameless panel:]
:Ponytail: This planet was contaminated with uranium when it formed. You really should have let it fully decay before building.
:Ponytail: Wait another 100 billion years and these rocks will be fine.

:[Zoom in on Cueball's head.]
:Cueball: But the Sun will burn out in 5 billion years.
:Ponytail (off-panel): Yikes, you built around a short-lived yellow star? What a mess.
:Ponytail (off-panel): Hope you have good insurance.

==References==
{{reflist}}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Physics]]
[[Category:Chemistry]]
[[Category:Geology]]
[[Category:Astronomy]]

887: Future Timeline

2025-03-05T12:57:38Z

172.70.163.109: /* The predictions */ Should have read the comic, not the table 'summary'. Redistributed and rereferenced dates.

{{comic
| number = 887
| date = April 18, 2011
| title = Future Timeline
| before = [[#Explanation|↓ Skip to explanation ↓]]
| image = future timeline.png
| titletext = Not shown: the approximately 30,000 identical, vaguely hysterical articles titled "WHITE PEOPLE IN [THE US/BRITAIN] TO BECOME MINORITY BY [YEAR]!", which came up for basically any year I put in.
}}

{{TOC}}==Explanation==
This comic uses the same strategy as comic [[715: Numbers]], in which [[Randall]] uses Google to search for phrases and then charts the results. This one is charted as a timeline, whereas 715 was charted as line graphs.
It is a list of things predicted or announced by anyone at any time (the ones you see on Google search using "by the year..." or similar statements).

"2101 - War Was Beginning" is a reference to the opening narration of video game ''Zero Wing''; the same narration is famous for the internet meme "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". As there are not any other out and out references in the comic, and the rest are actually results that you can find using Randall's methods, "War Was Beginning" was probably the only thing he got when he googled 2101 as well.

Certain events in this comic, e.g., "Social Security stops running surplus", are repeated multiple times. Also, certain bizarre events, like "Apocalypse occurs", or "Flying cars reach market", happen before rather plausible things, like "'Big one' hits California". Certain events, like "Japan is a robot-only country" or "Gillette introduces 14-blade razor" may be related to the recurring theme [[605: Extrapolating]].

According to [https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.pdf some official projections], (non Hispanic) {{w|White people}} will no longer be the majority in the United States by 2045 due to low birth rates and high rates of immigration. The title text is Randall's statement that, for both the US and Great Britain, there are so many sources that mention this, for any year he cared to search for and many using more far more doubtful sources (if any), that he decided that it was not worth flooding the chart with all these spurious repetitions, even though he did include other less prolific recurring themes.

This comic has similar features to [[1413: Suddenly Popular]], [[1093: Forget]], and [[891: Movie Ages]].

==The predictions==

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Year
! Prediction
! Further Details
! Outcome
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2012
| World population
| Ever since the advent of modern medicine and the more efficient agricultural processes developed since the Industrial Revolution, the human population had been growing at an unprecedented rate. This has caused some people to {{w|Human overpopulation|worry about overpopulation}}, which would cause a scarcity of resources and overcrowding, and propose various solutions, most of which involve some form of eugenics. 7 billion is a landmark number because it is a multiple of 1 billion.
| Close; Earth reached 7 billion in late 2011.
|-
| Flying cars
| For decades, flying cars have been a staple of futuristic sci-fi and technological predictions. So far very few of these predictions, which to tend to hover around 5–10 years from whatever the current date is, have come true.
| Too early; a flying car designed for consumer use was [https://www.suasnews.com/2021/04/announcing-aska-the-electric-take-off-and-landing-flying-car-for-consumers first demonstrated in July 2021] , but has yet to go into production. You could argue that helicopters count as flying cars, but these are not affordable{{citation needed}} and hence not widely used by the general public.
|-
| Canada cuts greenhouse emissions
| Currently, the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented period of warming we call global warming, caused in part by greenhouse emissions, which are gases that help trap heat in the atmosphere. Countries have repeatedly gotten together and promised to stop emitting greenhouse gases, but so far they have failed to meet their targets.
| False. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto treaty in late 2011, and its emissions in 2012 were 18% ''above'' 1990 levels (though its population had grown 26% and its GDP had grown 67% in that period).
|-
| Apocalypse occurs
| The end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on December 22, 2012 has been used in popular culture as a basis for predicting the end of the world. Amongst other things, this included the film '2012'. Some people took this rather more seriously, and actually believed that the world would end on this date.
| False.{{Citation needed}}
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2013
| National debt paid off
| For years, the subject of national debt (in the USA) has been a political point of contention. While both parties theoretically support reducing the debt or paying it off entirely, Democrats are more willing to spend to pull the country out of recessions in the economy and Republicans to cut taxes. The last time that spending did not exceed revenue begin under Clinton, a Democrat, and ended after George W. Bush, a Republican, said that this amounted to taxpayers being "overcharged" and taxes were lowered, followed by the Great Recession. Clinton at one point proposed [https://money.cnn.com/1999/06/28/economy/clinton/ paying off the debt by 2015].
| False.
|-
| Microchipping all Americans
| Microchips are small computer chips, typically embedded in pets in case they get lost, that contain information about the pet. Some, more paranoid, people worry about the government microchipping everyone in an effort to monitor their activities.
| False, although voluntary RFID implants do exist.
|-
| Homelessness ended in MA
| In 2008, the Commission To End Homelessness in Massachusetts, under Governor Deval Patrick, proposed a plan to all but eliminate homelessness over the next five years (hence the 2013 end-date on the comic).
| False.
|-
| Health care reform law repealed
| A health care reform law, popularly known as Obamacare, was signed into law in 2010. Ever since, many Republicans have tried (in vain) to repeal it, disliking the idea that government should provide and require healthcare. However, President [[Joe Biden]] has stated to restore Obamacare.
| Too early; almost repealed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2014
| US leaves Afghanistan
| After the {{w|September 11 attacks|terrorist attack}} on the {{w|World Trade Center (1973–2001)|World Trade Center}} (WTC) in New York on September 11, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan, due to the Taliban allegedly hosting al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization behind the attacks. The war has gone on since then, with the public growing increasingly tired of it. Public support then favoured a withdrawal, but for military and logistical reasons, the government could not simply move all the US troops in Afghanistan to their home. Therefore, the government promised to eventually withdraw all troops, initially planned to do so by the end of 2014.
| Too early; the remaining US troops [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/afghanistan-afghan-troops-struggle-to-replace-americans-at-key-bagram-air-base-2480356 left Afghanistan in June 2021.]
|-
| GNU/Linux dominant OS
| An operating system, or OS, is the software that forms the structure in which applications on you computer function. Some typical OSs include Mac OS X, Windows 10, and Linux. The first two of those three are commercial products, sold as a copy by a company. The last is an open-source OS, one that anyone can download and modify free. Typically, open-source software is used by a small number of socially conscious people.
| False, although Linux-based Android dominated phones since 2011.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2015
| New Horizon reaches Pluto
| The New Horizon spacecraft is a U.S. space mission designed to go to Pluto and take photographs, collect samples, etc.
| True. [https://pluto.jhuapl.edu It reached Pluto on July 14, 2015].
|-
| Healthcare law causes hyperinflation
| The National Inflation Association warned that the [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-bill-to-cause-us-hyperinflation-by-2015-88711032.html healthcare bill would cause U.S. hyperinflation by 2015.]
| False.
|-
| Millennium development goals achieved
| {{w|Millennium Development Goals}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2016
| Baby boomers begin turning 65
| {{w|Baby boomers}} are individuals conceived in the years following World War Two, roughly defined as those born from 1946-1959. This isn't so much a prediction as basic math; if you were born in 1946, you turned 65 in 2011.
| True.
|-
| Android takes 38%/45% of market share
| {{w|Android (operating system)|Android}} is a popular operating system for smartphones and tablets, created by Google. Market share is the percentage of all devices that use the product, in this case the Android operating system. These entries together are humorous because they cannot both happen at the same time.
| Too late; passed these marks in 2010. {{w|Android OS}}'s [https://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp market share was already 84.4% as of the third quarter of 2014,] showing that both estimates were overly conservative.
|-
| Windows phone overtakes iOS
| {{w|iOS}} is the operating system used by Apple iPhones. At the time of the comic, Apple's mobile OS is much more popular than Microsoft's. The article Randall found predicts that the tables will turn. However, Windows Phone was discontinued in 2017, with support for the last version (Windows Phone 10) ending on December 10, 2019.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2017
| China completes lunar mission
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the Moon.
| Too early. Already having had success (prior to the comic) with lunar orbiters from 2007 onwards, the first lunar lander was 14 December 2013. The mission that the comic describes, however, is the first sample-return mission that returned to Earth 16 December 2020 (later than this prediction).
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| The first of many predictions about the United States {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} trust fund program, all predicting its decline due to a variety of factors.
| Too early. Occurred in 2021.
|-
| US budget balanced
| The {{w|United States federal budget}} outlines how much the US government spends on what in a given fiscal year. The budget is not required to be balanced, and so often more money is spent than is earned in revenue, causing the national debt to rise.
| False. Still pretty negative.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The increasing popularity of social media and online news has caused a steady decline in the popularity of print media.
| False. Though newspapers (especially printed ones) are in decline, they are certainly not obsolete as of 2017, or 2022, for that matter.
|-
| Cosmetic surgery doubles
| {{w|Cosmetic Surgery}}
| False. According to the ASPS (American Society of Plastic Surgeons), 1.6 million cosmetic surgeries were performed in 2011, while 1.8 million were performed in 2017, an increase of only 0.2 million.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2018
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Jesus returns to Earth
| A number of Christians have attempted to predict the return of Christ (a.k.a. the {{w|second coming}} or the rapture) using clues from The Bible, even though the Bible and other religious texts says that "no man can know the date" and that it would be within the lifetime of some who witnessed Jesus's first appearance. Several predicted dates have come and gone.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2019
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
| Still too early.
|-
| Every baby has genes mapped at birth
| {{w|Gene Mapping}}
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2020
| Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
| Scientists estimate that more than half of the {{w|fossil fuels}} in existence have already been found and that fossil fuel production will begin to decline due to the scarcity, causing prices to increase. At the same time, improvements in {{w|Solar Power|solar technology}} are causing the prices for solar energy to steadily decrease.
| True, though only in {{w|Cost of electricity by source#Recent_global_studies|certain cases}}.
|-
| Keyboards and mice become obsolete
| {{w|Computer input device|Computer input devices}} are beginning to adopt other inputs, such as trackpads, voice commands, touch screens, and eye tracking. While touch screens in particular are gaining widespread use with the rise of smartphones and tablets, as of 2022 desktop computers that use mice are still fairly common. And while voice-to-text has greatly improved, it still doesn't have the accuracy to replace typing. None of the other text inputs are as fast as a keyboard, and none are suitable for writing program code.
| False. While touchscreen devices ''are'' increasingly common, desktop computers are still very much in use. Mice continue to be used alongside touchscreens and trackpads, and keyboards remain the dominant method of writing on computers.
|-
| New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
| A {{w|Tappan_Zee_Bridge#Replacement_bridge|replacement bridge}} was announced in 2008.
| Too late; completed in 2017.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2021
| US debt reaches 97% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
| Too late; reached in 2011.
|-
| US unemployment falls to 2.8%
| {{w|Unemployment in the United States}}
| False: because of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment has actually ''increased''.
|-
| Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
| A {{w|caliphate}} is a form of {{w|Islam|Islamic}} theocracy, centred around a Caliph, or successor to the prophet {{w|Muhammad}}. This prediction foreshadows the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which attempted but failed to create a caliphate in the Levant.
| False.
|-
| Lake Mead evaporates
| Formed by the {{w|Hoover Dam}} on the {{w|Colorado River}}, {{w|Lake Mead}} is the largest reservoir in the United States (measured by maximum capacity). It hasn't reached its capacity since 1983, due to drought and increased demand for water. This is linked to {{w|global warming}}.
| False, although water levels continue to fall.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2022
| Kilimanjaro snow-free
| At 5,895 metres, {{w|Kilimanjaro}} is the highest mountain in {{w|Africa}}, and the highest free-standing mountain in the world. Around 85% of its ice cover disappeared between 1912 and 2011, and it continues to recede.
| False.
|-
| HTML 5 finished
| The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) began work on {{w|HTML 5}} in 2004.
| Too late; 5.0 specification released in 2014, but incremental updates continue.
|-
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| This is the second time this prediction has appeared.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2023
| Jesus returns to Earth (again)
| Again.
| False.
|-
| US debt passes 100% of GDP
| This references the common fear that {{w|US Debt}} will exceed GDP, possibly causing {{w|Economic bubble|economic turmoil}}.
| Too late; reached in 2012.
|-
| All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
| Likely due to a combination of wildfire and {{w|deforestation}}.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2024
| Atlantis begins to reappear
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It's not clear why ''rising'' sea level would make it reappear.
| False.
|-
| Orangutans extinct in wild
| {{w|Orangutan|Orangutans}} are a species of great ape, currently classed as an {{w|endangered species}}, and found only in the {{w|Rainforest|rainforests}} of {{w|Borneo}} and {{w|Sumatra}}.
| False.
|-
| China lands men and women on the Moon
| The {{w|Chinese space program}} has plans for extraterrestrial exploration, including a manned mission to the Moon.
| False; the Chinese crewed mission is supposed to happen "by the year 2030".
|-
| NASA sets up permanent Moon base
| There has been a lot of hype recently about finally returning to the Moon, vis-a-vis Orion.
| Too early; the {{w|Artemis program}} plans to put the {{w|Lunar Gateway}} in orbit around the Moon, which will be flown up in [https://www.nasa.gov/gateway-frequently-asked-questions four launches over the course of six years, beginning "no earlier than 2025"]
|-
| Female professionals pass males in pay
| This prediction is an erroneous extrapolation from the current (at the time this comic was made) rate at which female incomes were catching up to male incomes.
| False.
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2025
| World population reaches 8 billion
| Given current rates, it seems unlikely it will take this long to hit 8 billion, but advances in birth control options and especially their availability in developing nations may slow the current rate considerably.
| Too late. This number was reached in late 2022, although it may have been reached later as some countries overcount their population.
|-
| Two billion people face water shortages
| https://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/28-01-2008/103693-water_crisis-0/
|
|-
| 62 MPG cars introduced
| 62 miles per gallon, ~3.8 L/100km. 62 MPG is a very good mileage rate at today's standard, even though [https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5231050&page=1 some cars can be driven carefully so as to attain over 100 MPG].
|
|-
| US power fades
| https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-us-power-will-fade-by-2025/
| Hard to know what the precise metric for this would be.
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2026
| Atlantis emerges completely
| {{w|Atlantis}} is the name of a fictional/hypothetical island, which is supposed to have been lost beneath the sea. It seems that it has taken 2 years for it to emerge completely.
|
|-
| Rock Bands die out
| https://bestbands.wordpress.com/2009/01/25/rock-bands-to-die-out-by-2026/
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| [https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/business/27view.html It’s 2026, and the Debt Is Due.]
|
|-
| Car accidents cease
| Presumably, cars will be fully automated and able to pilot themselves at this point and will have fail-safes that prevent collisions currently attributed to user error. Car accidents will always be possible, however, due to mechanical and electrical failures.
|
|-
| West coast falls into ocean
| Most likely due to {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|a significant seismic event}}.
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2027
| Japan introduces new fastest Maglev train
| Japan's railway systems are famous for their "bullet trains", or {{w|Shinkansen}}. The Chūō Shinkansen is planned to be opened in this year.
|
|-
| Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony is established
| https://totse.mattfast1.com/en/technology/space_astronomy_nasa/moonmars.html
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2028
| Tobacco outlawed
| Tobacco products (cigarettes and chewing tobacco) have become more and more taboo in modern culture, with most public places and private businesses forbidding their use indoors and near places children congregate.
|
|-
| 40% of coral reefs gone
| Many factors have been attributed to the decline of {{w|Coral_reef#Threats|coral reefs}}, including mining, over fishing, and rising ocean tempteratures.
|
|-
| US debt paid off
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Social Security stops running surplus
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}} again
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2029
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| The next stage of the collapse of {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}. After years of deficits deplete the trust fund, the program will only be able to pay out as much in benefits as it takes in each year.
|
|-
| Computers pass the Turing test
| It is no coincidence that 2029 is the timeline for Terminator Movies.
| Some computer programs already clear the Turing Test about 30% of the time.
|-
| Aging reversed
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/manhattan-beach-project-to-reverse-aging-by-2029/ Manhattan Beach Project to reverse aging by 2029]
|
|-
| Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
|
| As of July 2024, Wikipedia has over [https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wikipedias#Grand_Total 63.2 million total articles], if all languages are included. The source being cited may have meant the English language Wikipedia, which has only {{w|Special:Statistics|6.8 million articles}}.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2030
| Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
| WWF press release - [https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/climate-change-speeds-up-amazon-s-destruction-says-wwf Climate Change Speeds Up Amazon’s Destruction] referring to a report on the [https://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazonas_eng_04_12b_web.pdf Amazon's vicious cycles].
|
|-
| Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
| From the [https://www.cancer.org/myacs/newengland/global-cancer-burden-to-double-by-2030 Global Cancer Burden to Nearly Double by 2030] article about the article from page 37 of [https://www.cancer.org/research/cancerfactsfigures/globalcancerfactsfigures/global-facts-figures-2nd-ed Global Cancer Facts & Figures 2nd edition].
|
|-
| Arctic ice-free in summer
| https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-video-ap.html
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2031
| Computers controlled by thought
| https://www.gizmag.com/future-mobile-technology/17554/
| As of 2017, this is {{w|Brain–computer interface|already possible}}, but still not used in any mass available devices as of 2024.
|-
| Realtors replaced by technology
| https://agbeat.com/editorials/will-realtors-be-replaced-by-technology-by-the-year-2031/
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| https://crfb.org/blogs/cbo-95-percent-confident-social-security-trust-fund-runs-out-25-years
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2032
| "Big One" hits San Francisco
| {{w|San Franscisco}} is located on the {{w|San Andreas Fault}}, which is predicted to produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the 'near future'. This event is referred to as {{w|San_Andreas_Fault#The_next_.22Big_One.22|"The Big One"}}.
|
|-
| US elects first married lesbian President
| https://4chandata.org/g/In-what-major-ways-do-you-think-the-world-of-2032-will-be-different-from-that-of-today-a20155
|
|-
| Entire world converted to Christianity
| https://www.goddiscussion.com/38920/christian-domininionsts-to-take-over-the-world-by-2032/
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2033
| Kilimanjaro ice disappears
| https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/02/idUSL2210825
|
|-
| India becomes superpower
| https://www.facebook.com/pages/India-A-SuperPower-by-2033/151177191568098
|
|-
| Europe reaches Mars
| [https://www.spacedaily.com/news/esa-general-03zb.html Specifically, a manned European mission]. ESA's {{w|Mars Express}} probe landed in 2003.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2034
| US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
| [https://www.reuters.com/article/2009/11/27/us-diabetes-usa-costs-idUSTRE5AQ0C220091127 U.S. diabetes cases to double, costs triple by 2034]
|
|-
| US builds autonomous robot army
| The concept of robots built for military service is another common element of science fiction stories. [https://www.aos-inc.com/index.php/medialias/press-releases?id=112 Unmanned Systems] article, about the [https://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA522247 2009-2034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap] publication ([https://www.amazon.com/2009-Unmanned-Integrated-Aircraft-Technologies-ebook/dp/B0047743A0 details at Amazon]).
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2035
| 80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
| From fact sheet on Obama's [https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/fact-sheet-state-union-president-obamas-plan-win-future State of the Union.]
|
|-
| Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
| From an IPCC report on [https://web.archive.org/web/20100116132657/https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html The Himalayan glaciers] that has been analysed in quite some depth. See for example detailed article on an [https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/02/anatomy-of-ipccs-himalayan-glacier-year-2035-mess/ anatomy of IPCC’s mistake].
|
|-
| Arctic sea lane opens
| [https://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/730ef8fe-27e1-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3OBgEHYNY Arctic sea lane could open by 2035]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2036
| 80% of US has access to high-speed rail
| [https://www.wnyc.org/story/284946-obama-80-percent-of-americans-should-have-access-to-high-speed-rail-by-2036/ Obama: 80 Percent of Americans Should Have Access to High Speed Rail By 2036]
|
|-
| Asteroid Apophis misses/hits Earth
| 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2037
| Arctic ice-free in September
| {{w|Arctic sea ice decline}}
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2038
| 32-bit timestamps roll over, causing Y2K-level chaos
| On 03:14:07 UTC on 19 January 2038, the value of time_t rolls over, that is it will return to zero. time_t is a computing standard measurement of time; it is a count of the number of seconds since 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 1970. time_t is used by most computer systems to store date and time information. It is recommended that new software should convert to a 64 bit time_t; indeed, most operating systems designed to run on 64-bit hardware already use signed 64-bit time_t integers. This would give an epoch of 15:30:08 UTC on 4 December 292,277,026,596 (292 billion years away). Of course, legacy systems may not be upgradable so action taken now should prevent this becoming a problem closer to 2038...
|
|-
| "Big One" hits California
| [https://www.presstelegram.com/technology/20080414/the-big-one-likely-to-hit-by-2038 `The big one' likely to hit by 2038]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2039
| US population hits 400 Million
| [https://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2008/us400million.aspx U.S. Population Projected to Hit 400 Million in 2039]
|
|-
| Severe heat waves become commonplace
| [https://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/july/extreme-heat-study-070810.html Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds]
|
|-
| Scientology becomes majority religion in US
| [https://home.snafu.de/tilman/2039.html Essay: Scientology in the year 2039]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2040
| Arctic summers ice-free
| [https://www.livescience.com/9419-arctic-summer-ice-free-2040.html Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2040]
|
|-
| Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
| [https://www.computerworld.com/article/2528330/app-development/nanotech-could-make-humans-immortal-by-2040--futurist-says.html Nanotech could make humans immortal by 2040, futurist says]
|
|-
| 2041
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2043
| World population passes 9 Billion
| {{w|Population growth}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2044
| Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
| Premise of the movie [https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1363468/ Zenith] - further details are in the [https://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/esearch/e3i25130cd57f1590bda4527c098ac85b01 film review for Zenith.]
|
|-
| Childhood obesity reaches 100%
| [https://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=11414 100-Percent Childhood Obesity Predicted by 2044]
|
|-
| 2045
| Humans and machines merge
| {{w|Ray Kurzweil}} predicts of a 'singularity' which will lead to a race of super intelligent beings.
|
|-
| 2046
| World's natural resources depleted
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2047
| World ruled by banks and corporations
| [https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Schlock-2047-RM-Krakoff-ebook/dp/B0039IT37Q Future Schlock - the story of a world turned upside down in 2047]
|
|-
| Tobacco industry fails
| [https://www.news.wisc.edu/16857 Experts: Big Tobacco dead by 2047, possibly sooner]
|
|-
| US begins using autonomous attack drones
| [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/aug/22/us-air-force-drones-pilots-afghanistan US Air Force prepares drones to end era of fighter pilots]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2048
| Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
| WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
| [https://future.wikia.com/wiki/RyansWorld:_Bathing_Suits_of_the_Future RyansWorld: Bathing Suits of the Future]
|
|-
| Entire US population overweight
| [https://web.archive.org/web/20090321075605/https://thestatsblog.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/scientists-say-thin-people-face-extinction-in-united-states-everyone-will-be-overweight-by-2048-%E2%80%93-and-less-smart Scientists Say Thin People Face Extinction in United States: Everyone Will Be Overweight by 2048 – And Less Smart (archive)]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2049
| $1,000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
| [https://www.americanbar.org/content/newsletter/publications/technology_e_report_home/2007_may_technotes.html TechNotes: Trends in Technology]
|
|-
| Singularity occurs
| [https://www.prismdecision.com/the-singularity-is-near The Singularity Is Near]
|
|-
| Fishing industry collapses
| This tends to happen when your food-stock is extinct{{citation needed}} - see WWF report on [https://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/blue_planet/problems/problems_fishing/ unsustainable fishing.]
|
|-
| rowspan="5"| 2050
| 80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
| [https://infochangeindia.org/population/books-a-reports/80-of-world-population-will-soon-be-in-urban-areas.html 80% of world population will soon be in urban areas]
|
|-
| China controls space
| [https://books.google.com/books?id=op851Uf99LQC&dq=China+controls+space+2050&source=gbs_navlinks_s Space Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050]
|
|-
| Sex with robots possible
| [https://www.livescience.com/1951-forecast-sex-marriage-robots-2050.html Forecast: Sex and Marriage with Robots by 2050]
|
|-
| Cars banned from European cities
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/8411336/EU-to-ban-cars-from-cities-by-2050.html EU to ban cars from cities by 2050]
|
|-
| One million species extinct from climate change
| [https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html By 2050 Warming to Doom Million Species, Study Says]
|
|-
| 2051
| Atmosphere escapes into space
| [https://www.thehulltruth.com/boating-outdoor-photos/255705-have-you-ever-seen-fallstreak-hole.html Conspiracy theory] relating to {{w|Fallstreak hole}} or hole punch clouds.
|
|-
| 2052
| Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2053
| US budget balanced
| [https://crfb.org/blogs/omb-releases-long-term-projections-fy2015-budget-proposal OMB releases long-term projections for the FY2015 budget proposal]
|
|-
| Majority of Americans in prison
| [https://articles.philly.com/1992-06-14/news/26032105_1_prison-officials-prison-time-prison-commissioners 'Beyond Bricks And Bars' As Jails Overflow, The Lock-'em-up Credo Is Drawing Unlikely Criticism - From Prison Officials Themselves]
|
|-
| Cars driven by dogs
|
| This has [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWAK0J8Uhzk already occurred] in 2012! However, it is not as widespread as the prediction may be implying.
|-
| 2054
| Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
| [https://www.albionmonitor.com/0403a/earth2054.html Hunger Could Be 'Unimaginable' Global Problem By 2054]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2055
| Atmospheric CO2 doubled
| [https://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/flash_intro.php Carbon Mitigation Initiative: Stabilization Wedges]
|
|-
| Oil runs out
| [https://raphaelvanlaer.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/peak-uncertainty-when-will-we-run-out-of-fossil-fuels/ Peak uncertainty, when will we run out of fossil fuels?]
|
|-
| Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
| [https://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/environment/5-valuable-metals-that-could-vanish-by-2055 5 Valuable Metals That Could Vanish by 2055]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2056
| RFID-tagged driverless cars
| [https://www.zdnet.com/article/rfid-tagged-driverless-cars-on-roads-by-2056/ RFID-tagged driverless cars on roads by 2056]
|
|-
| Robots given same rights as humans
| [https://www.cc.gatech.edu/news/robots-given-same-rights-humans-2056 Robots Given Same Rights As Humans By 2056]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2057
| 150 Japanese settlers on Mars
| [https://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/9011051292/will-japan-colonize-mars Will Japan colonize Mars?]
|
|-
| Colorado River runs dry
| [https://news.agu.org/press-release/colorado-river-reservoirs-could-bottom-out-from-warming-business-as-usual/ Colorado River Reservoirs Could Bottom Out From Warming]
|
|-
| 2058
| Smoking ends in New Zealand
| [https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10698966 Smoking to die out in NZ by 2058]
|
|-
| 2059
| Humans have domesticated robots
| [https://diehardempiricist.blogspot.co.nz/2012/05/6-may-2011-virtual-necking-demography.html Virtual necking, demography, and robots]
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2060
| Human race lives in peace
| [https://www.arasfoundation.org/vision.html ARAS vision/mission]
|
|-
| Extreme droughts across much of Earth
| [https://wdas.cosmosmagazine.com/news/extreme-drought-across-most-earth-30-years/ Extreme drought across most of Earth by 2060]
|
|-
| Global temperature rise reaches 4 °C
| {{w|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}
|
|-
| Oil runs out again
| [https://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/01/oil-may-run-out-by-2060-hsbc/?__lsa=98a7-5c61 Oil may run out by 2060: HSBC]
|
|-
| 2061
| Halley's comet returns
| Halley's comet returns to the inner solar system (the vicinity of earth and the sun) every 75.3 years. The last time it was near earth was in 1985-1986. When it next returns, its closest approach to the sun will occur on [https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi 28 July 2061.]
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2062
| Uganda hosts World Cup
| [https://shillingscents.blogspot.co.nz/2010/07/uganda-to-host-world-cup-in-2062.html Uganda to host world cup in 2062]
|
|-
| The Jetsons
| {{w|The Jetsons}} was an animated science fiction sitcom that first aired in 1962. The show was set in the year 2062.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2063
| First human clones reach adulthood
| [https://au.ign.com/articles/2004/04/28/the-fall-last-days-of-gaia-diary-2 The Fall - Last Days of Gaia Diary #2]
|
|-
| Population of Moon reaches 100,000
| Reading Eagle newspaper article from July 17, 1963 - [https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1955&dat=19630717&id=PhgrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=B50FAAAAIBAJ&pg=4055,6599008 Moon Population of 100,000 Is Predicted for 2063] and [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Population of Mars reaches 10,000
| [https://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2008/3/14/air-force-predictions-for-2063-1963.html Air Force Predictions for 2063 (1963)]
|
|-
| Spacecraft exceed speed of light
| Physics as currently understood states that it is impossible to exceed the speed of light. A monumental shift in our physics would have had to have occurred for this to come true. This is a reference to the 8th Star Trek feature Film: "Star Trek: First Contact" where Zefram Cochrane performs the first human Warp Flight on April 5, 2063.
|
|-
| 2064
| Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
| [https://www.cleanhouston.org/air/features/hazyfuture.htm State plan guarantees a hazy future for Texas’ wilderness areas]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2065
| Last coral reefs die out
| From an [https://www.edgeofexistence.org/coral_reef_conservation/coral_reef_video.php article about a video called Reefs on the Edge] set in 2065 where a 15-year-old girl tells her grandfather's stories of coral reefs, and their demise.
|
|-
| Chernobyl cleanup complete
| [https://rt.com/politics/chernobyl-clean-in-55-years-time/ Chernobyl clean in 55 years time?]
|
|-
| 2066
| Cyprus achieves its goal
| This is from some [https://www.cyprus-forum.com/cyprus33608-110.html#p665612 forum posts on the decendants of Cypriots] that lends support to the autonomy of Cyprus from Greek or Turkey.
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2067
| Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
| The article at [https://blogs.lib.unc.edu/ncm/index.php/2013/11/15/artifact-of-the-month-slide-rule-1916/ Artifact of the Month: Slide rule, 1916] includes information from the International Slide Rule Museum that "in 1967, Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future, predicting that Americans in 2067 would live in domed cities and watch 3D television."
|
|-
| Redheads go extinct
| [https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/redhead-extinction.htm Are redheads going extinct?]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2068
| Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
| [https://www.theozonehole.com/recovery.htm NASA Study Finds Clock Ticking Slower On Ozone Hole Recovery]
|
|-
| Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
| [https://myth-one.com/chapter_8.htm The Resurrections -- What Really Happens]
|
|-
| Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
| [https://thedailybanter.com/2013/01/alex-jones-the-government-is-trying-to-make-more-gay-people/ Alex Jones talks about chemicals that make people gay]
|
|-
| 2069
| Public masturbation legalized
| [https://uncyclopedia.com/wiki/UnNews:It's_still_not_okay_to_Pull_Your_Penis_out_in_Public It's still not okay to Pull Your Penis out in Public]
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 2070
| World population peaks
| [https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1108-global-population-to-peak-in-2070.html Global population to peak in 2070]
|
|-
| City-scale flooding disasters
| [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070]
|
|-
| 60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
| [https://www.ssisolarenergy.com/solar-alternative-energy/ What Is Alternative Energy All About?]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2071
| Europe's temperatures rise by 3 °C
| [https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-change-adaptation/adaptation-tools/project-catalog/peseta-projection-of-economic-impacts-of-climate Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis]
|
|-
| World summer temperatures rise by 5 °C
| [https://www.climateadaptation.eu/denmark/climate-change/ See "Air temperature changes in the 21st century"]
|
|-
| 2072
| US retirement age is set to 75
| [https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/2012/06/11/how-high-will-the-retirement-age-go Up to 70-80 years]
|
|-
| 2073
| Oceans do not rise one foot
| [https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm More like 2 feet]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2074
| Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
| [https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8848188.html UK to have 1 million centenarians by 2074]
|
|-
| Supertyphoons hit Japan
| [https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2009/09/08/national/super-typhoons-in-store-as-seas-warm/ Super typhoons in store as seas warm]
|
|-
| 2075
| US retirement age set to 69
| [https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1112/Retirement-age-at-69-Deficit-plan-hits-Social-Security Retirement age at 69? Deficit plan hits Social Security]
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2076
| Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
| [https://doclib.uhasselt.be/dspace/bitstream/1942/871/1/yitzhaki373.PDF Multiple Authorship in Biochemistry and Other Fields] (PDF)
|
|-
| Social Security trust fund exhausted
| {{w|Social Security (United States)|Social Security}}
|
|-
| 2078
| Newspapers become obsolete and die out
| The same prediction was made for 2017 and 2022. Even when most prognosticators agree that something will happen, there can still be much disagreement about ''when'' it will happen.
|
|-
| rowspan="4"| 2079
| US debt reaches 716% of GDP
| {{w|US Debt}}
|
|-
| Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
| [https://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2011/feb/climate-change-causing-demise-lodgepole-pine-western-north-america Climate change causing demise of lodgepole pine in western North America]
|
|-
| Floods commonplace
| [https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090108101627.htm Floods To Become Commonplace By 2080]
|
|-
| Religion marginalized
| https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-11347073
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2080
| Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
| [https://crfb.org/sites/default/files/our_debt_problems_are_far_from_solved_updated_2.pdf Our debt problems are far from solved] (PDF)
|
|-
| UK population doubles
| [https://forums.canadiancontent.net/international-politics/69603-britains-population-hit-110-million.html Britain's population to hit 110 million]
|
|-
| 2082
| World population declines to one billion
| [https://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html Population: The Elephant in the Room]
|
|-
| 2084
| Robot policemen introduced
| [https://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Robotic-cops-set-to-stamp-out-crime-by-2084 Robotic cops set to stamp out crime by 2084]
|
|-
| 2085
| US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
| [https://moneybob.com/2010/06/28/paul-krugman-throws-in-towel-says-were-headed-for-another-depression/ Paul Krugman Throws In Towel, Says We’re Headed For Another Depression]
|
|-
| 2088
| Japan becomes all-robot country
| [https://www.theretributioners.tv/erics-blog/2009/11/25/-japan-to-become-all-robot-country-by-2088.html Japan To Become All Robot Country By 2088]
|
|-
| 2089
| World halts fossil fuel use
| {{w|Fossil Fuels}}
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 2090
| Global warming hits 7 °C
| [https://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-warn-of-7c-dangerous-climate-change-by-2090.html Models warn of 7C dangerous climate change by 2090]. Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.
|
|-
| Global warming hits 4 °C
| Summarized [https://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/2090-climate-change-global-warming-2090.php here]. In reference to Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001
|
|-
| rowspan="11"| 2100
| Global warming around 5-7 °C
| [https://grist.org/article/bau-fd/ Hadley Center study warns of ‘catastrophic’ 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path]
|
|-
| Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
| {{w|Future sea level}}
|
|-
| Joshua trees nearly extinct
| [https://news.discovery.com/earth/joshua-trees-climate-change-110325.htm Joshua Trees Nearly Wiped Out by 2100?]
|
|-
| Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
| [https://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100]
|
|-
| Germany tropical
| [https://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/climate-change-predictions-a-tropical-germany-by-2100-a-463378.html Climate Change Predictions: A Tropical Germany by 2100?]
|
|-
| Emperor penguins extinct
| [https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7851276.stm Emperor penguins face extinction]
|
|-
| Arctic permafrost thaws
| [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surface-permafrost-could/ Surface Permafrost Could Disappear by 2100]
|
|-
| Rising seas flood coastal cities
| [https://uanews.org/story/rising-seas-will-affect-major-us-coastal-cities-2100 Rising Seas Will Affect Major U.S. Coastal Cities by 2100]
|
|-
| Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
| [https://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/08/06/890970/-Massive-Loss-of-Rainforest-Species-by-2100-eKos-Earthship-Friday Massive Loss of Rainforest Species by 2100]
|
|-
| All coral reefs gone
| [https://planetsave.com/2010/10/15/coral-reefs-gone-by-2100/ Coral Reefs Gone by 2100?]
|
|-
| Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
| Each iteration of the Gillette line of safety razors has one more blade than the previous one. MadTV has also [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAP8o5ZEo0 parodied] this. Over five years before MadTV did so, the Australian comedy group the D-Generation parodied the first two-bladed razor as the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleuLyCUx28 Gillette 3000] with 16 blades.
|
|-
| 2101
| WAR WAS BEGINNING
| References {{w|Zero Wing}}, a 1989 Japanese computer game set in 2101, famous for poorly translated English and the source for "{{w|All your base are belong to us}}". See [[286: All Your Base]]
|
|}

==Transcript==

:<big>'''THE FUTURE'''</big>
:'''According to Google search results'''
:Events for each year determined by the first page of Google search results for the phrases:
:"By <year>" "In year"
:"By the year <year>" "In the year <year>"
:"Will * by the year <year>" "Will * in the year <year>"
:"In <year>, * will" "By <year>, * will"
:
:;2012
::World population reaches 7 billion
::Flying cars reach market
::Canada cuts greenhouse emissions to 6% below 1990 levels as per Kyoto
::Apocalypse occurs
:;2013
::National debt paid off through President Clinton's plans
::Microchipping of all Americans begins
::Homelessness ended in Massachusetts
::Health care reform law repealed
:;2014
::US leaves Afghanistan
::GNU/Linux becomes dominant OS
:;2015
::New Horizons reaches Pluto
::Health care law causes hyperinflation
::192 UN member nations achieve millennium development goals:
::*Extreme poverty and hunger eradicated
::*Universal primary education implemented
::*Women empowered, gender equality reached
::*Environmental stability ensured
:;2016
::Baby boomers begin turning 65
::Android takes 38% of the smartphone market
::Android takes 45% of the smartphone market
::Windows Phone overtakes iOS in smartphones
:;2017
::China completes unmanned Lunar sample-return mission
::Social Security stops running surplus
::US budget balanced
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
::Cosmetic surgery doubles
:;2018
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Jesus returns to Earth
:;2019
::Social Security stops running surplus
::Every baby has genes mapped at birth
:;2020
::Solar power becomes cheaper than fossil fuels
::Keyboards and mice become obsolete
::New Tappan Zee bridge constructed
:;2021
::US debt reaches 97% of GDP
::US unemployment falls to 2.8%
::Restored caliphate unifies Middle East
::Lake Mead evaporates
:;2022
::Kilimanjaro snow-free
::HTML 5 finished
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2023
::Jesus returns to Earth (again)
::US debt passes 100% of GDP
::All unprotected ancient forests gone from Pacific Northwest
:;2024
::Atlantis begins to reappear
::Orangutans extinct in wild
::China lands men and women on the moon
::NASA sets up permanent moon base
::Female professionals pass males in pay
:;2025
::World population reaches 8 billion
::Two billion people face water shortages
::62 MPG cars introduced
::US power fades
:;2026
::Atlantis emerges completely
::Rock Bands die out
::US debt paid off
::Car accidents cease
::West coast falls into ocean
:;2027
::Japan introduces new fastest maglev train
::Lyndon Larouche-planned Mars colony established
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2028
::Tobacco outlawed
::40% of coral reefs gone
::US debt paid off
::Social Security stops running surplus
:;2029
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
::Computers pass the Turing Test
::Aging reversed
::Wikipedia reaches 30 million articles
:;2030
::Half of Amazon rain forest lost to logging
::Cancer deaths double from 2008 levels
::Arctic ice-free in summer
:;2031
::Computers controlled by thought
::Realtors replaced by technology
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2032
::"Big One" hits San Francisco
::US elects first married lesbian president
::Entire world converted to Christianity
:;2033
::Kilimanjaro ice disappears
::India becomes superpower
::Europe reaches Mars
:;2034
::US diabetes cases double, treatment costs triple
::US builds autonomous robot army
:;2035
::80% of America's energy comes from renewable sources
::Himalayan glaciers down 80% in size
::Arctic sea lane opens
:;2036
::80% of US has access to high-speed rail
::Asteroid Apophis hits/misses Earth
:;2037
::Arctic ice-free in September
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2038
::32-bit timestamps role over, causing Y2K-level chaos
::"Big One" hits California
:;2039
::US population hits 400 million
::Severe heat waves become commonplace
::Scientology becomes majority religion in US
:;2040
::Arctic summers ice-free
::Nanotechnology makes humans immortal
:;2041
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2042
:;2043
::World population passes 9 billion
:;2044
::Mankind genetically engineered to be happy
::Childhood obesity reaches 100%
:;2045
::Humans and machines merge
:;2046
::World's natural resources depleted
:;2047
::World ruled by banks and corporations
::Tobacco industry fails
::US begins using autonomous attack drones
:;2048
::Salt-water fish extinct from overfishing
::Unisex bathing suits cover body from shoulder to ankle
::Entire US population overweight
:;2049
::$1.000 computer exceeds computational ability of humanity
::Singularity occurs
::Fishing industry collapses
:;2050
::80% of Earth's population lives in urban centers
::China controls space
::Sex with robots possible
::Cars banned from European cities
::One million species extinct from climate change
:;2051
::Atmosphere escapes into space
:;2052
::Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending exceed total US revenue
:;2053
::US budget balanced
::Majority of Americans in prison
::Cars driven by dogs
:;2054
::Hunger becomes unimaginable global problem
:;2055
::Atmospheric CO2 doubled
::Oil runs out
::Copper, tin, lead, gold, and nickel all exhausted
:;2056
::RFID-tagged driverless cars
::Robots given same rights as humans
:;2057
::150 Japanese settlers on Mars
::Colorado River runs dry
:;2058
::Smoking ends in New Zealand
:;2059
::Humans have domesticated robots
:;2060
::Human race lives in peace
::Extreme droughts across much of Earth
::Global temperature rise reaches 4°C
::Oil runs out again
:;2061
::Halley's comet returns
:;2062
::Uganda hosts World Cup
::The Jetsons
:;2063
::First human clones reach adulthood
::Population of Moon reaches 100,000
::Population of Mars reaches 10,000
::Spacecraft exceed speed of light
:;2064
::Clean Air Act finishes reducing haze in national parks to natural levels
:;2065
::Last coral reefs die out
::Chernobyl cleanup complete
:;2066
::Cyprus achieves its goal
:;2067
::Americans live in domed cities and watch 3D TV
::Redheads go extinct
:;2068
::Ozone hole over Antarctic finishes recovering
::Lord Jesus rules the Earth from Throne in Jerusalem.
::Entire world population gay due to chemicals in the water
:;2069
::Public masturbation legalized
:;2070
::World population peaks
::City-scale flooding disasters
::60% of world's energy comes from renewable sources
:;2071
::Europe's temperatures rise by 3°C
::World summer temperatures rise by 5°C
:;2072
::US retirement age is set to 75
:;2073
::Oceans do not rise one foot
:;2074
::Number of 100-year-olds reaches one million
::Supertyphoons hit Japan
:;2075
::US retirement age set to 69
:;2076
::Average scientific paper has more than 24 authors
::Social Security trust fund exhausted
:;2077
:;2078
::Newspapers become obsolete and die out
:;2079
::US debt reaches 716% of GDP
::Lodgepole pines disappear from Northwest
::Floods commonplace
::Religion marginalized
:;2080
::Federal spending reaches 70% of GDP
::UK population doubles
:;2081
:;2082
::World population declines to one billion
:;2083
:;2084
::Robot policemen introduced
:;2085
::US deficit reaches 62% of GDP
:;2086
:;2087
:;2088
::Japan becomes all-robot country
:;2089
::World halts fossil fuel use
:;2090
::Global warming hits 7°C
::Global warming hits 4°C
:;2091
:;2092
:;2093
:;2094
:;2095
:;2096
:;2097
:;2098
:;2099
:;2100
::Global warming around 5-7°C
::Sea levels have risen by a meter or more
::Joshua trees nearly extinct
::Earth's climate resembles that of the Cretaceous
::Germany tropical
::Emperor penguins extinct
::Arctic permafrost thaws
::Rising seas flood coastal cities
::Rain forests mostly gone due to climatic shifts
::All coral reefs gone
::Gillette introduces 14-bladed razor
:;2101
::WAR WAS BEGINNING

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Large drawings]]
[[Category:Timelines]]
[[Category:Google Search]]
[[Category:Earthquakes]]
[[Category:Climate change]]
[[Category:Singularity]]
[[Category:Renewable energy]]
[[Category:Smartphones]]
[[Category:Wikipedia]]

Talk:3055: Giants

2025-02-25T09:57:21Z

172.70.163.109:

Anyone know why "the Man in the Moon" has square brackets around it? Stylistic choice, or clever reference? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.254.43|172.71.254.43]] 19:38, 24 February 2025 (UTC)

:I suspect it's to make it clear that it's all one block of text, otherwise it might be read as separate objects on each line. [[User:IntangibleMatter|IntangibleMatter]] ([[User talk:IntangibleMatter|talk]]) 20:01, 24 February 2025 (UTC)
::I thought that too but then Jolly Green should be in brackets as well. I think it's because Man in the Moon doesn't have "giant" after it. The rest all assume "giant" after (gas giant, etc.).[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.81|162.158.63.81]] 20:07, 24 February 2025 (UTC)Pat
:::I think that the difference between these two cases is just a matter of available space. The space around "Jolly/Green" makes it clear that the two words go together, whereas "The/Man in/the Moon" would be crammed together even if the three lines were supposed to be distinct, unless the font was a lot smaller. The brackets remove that ambiguity. [[User:BunsenH|BunsenH]] ([[User talk:BunsenH|talk]]) 21:36, 24 February 2025 (UTC)
:Given how commonly this community makes up answers, and how very little information there is on this, I suspect the correct answer to this question to not emerge here, but maybe somebody can make an argument that is actually convincing. It's certainly notably different and I didn't think much of it until seeing it mentioned. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.28|162.158.63.28]] 20:33, 24 February 2025 (UTC)
:I think it's because unlike all the other entries in the diagram, it is not appropriate to append the word "Giant" to the end of it. Like, it's the full name of a particular giant, rather than a "type" of one as otherwise implied by the title of the chart. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.7.194|172.69.7.194]] 22:38, 24 February 2025 (UTC)

Alas, if only the Norse had referred to Ymir and his descendants as "Ice Giants" instead of "Frost Giants", we might have had another contender for that central space. [[User:MeZimm|MeZimm]] ([[User talk:MeZimm|talk]]) 20:35, 24 February 2025 (UTC)

Been a while since Randall's enthusiasm for Buns (rabbits) made an appearance in the comic! [[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.216|172.70.130.216]] 05:36, 25 February 2025 (UTC)

Classifying the Atacama Giant and Cardiff Giant as 'Geological / Planetary' seems pretty dubious - requires an unusually broad interpretation of one or other of those terms.[[Special:Contributions/172.70.163.109|172.70.163.109]] 09:57, 25 February 2025 (UTC)

Talk:544: Pep Talk

2024-12-03T00:16:20Z

172.70.163.109:

There is a [[explain_xkcd:Community_portal/Proposals#Merge_Cueball_.26_Rob|community portal discussion]] of what to call Cueball and what to do in case with more than one Cueball. I have added this comic to the new Category:Multiple Cueballs. Since there is only one Cueball that "talks" it is obvious to keep him listed as Cueball. Just made a note that the other guys also looks like Cueball. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:43, 15 March 2015 (UTC)

I think Cueball plural should be Cueballs. Anonymous May 8 2020

This explanation is definitely incomplete. Someone add tag please. stevethenoob 18:48, 2 December 2024 (UTC)
:You can do that. Assuming somebody hasn't just removed even the newest comic's tag, go and look at the current format (or, even if they have, see what 'THE BOT' put in the new-page edit) and use that as inspiration if you aren't sure of the markup format. But it's basically <code><nowiki>{{incomplete | ...your reasoning for the incompleteness... }}</nowiki></code> at the simplest. Or check the {{template|incomplete}} template page for the definive explanation.
:Also, you (and Anonymous, above) seem not to have signed with the <nowiki>~~~~</nowiki> markup. Might be intentional, or you edited your configuration, but always nice to see linkable username attributions. As well as (what you did manage) a proper timestamp. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.163.109|172.70.163.109]] 00:16, 3 December 2024 (UTC)