Talk:1159: Countdown

2013-01-12T03:01:53Z

76.14.25.84: Replied to a question in the volcano section

==Zeroes==
If you assume (with nothing else known), that large numbers have a probability about reciprocal to themselves to ensure a sum/integral of 1, the digits not being zeroes is extremely unlikely.

Whether black hat guy thinks a supervolcanoe eruption is a favourable event or being spared from one is not made entirely clear. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/178.26.121.97|178.26.121.97]] 08:56, 11 January 2013 (UTC)
:I warmly recommend the article {{w|harmonic series (mathematics)}}. ;-) --[[Special:Contributions/131.152.41.173|131.152.41.173]] 13:30, 11 January 2013 (UTC)
::You are right, the harmonic series is divergent. However, the maximal number of digits - which can be possibly displayed - is finite. Which distribution would you suggest? Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/178.26.121.97|178.26.121.97]] 19:35, 11 January 2013 (UTC)

Sebastian, do you know the specific name of the statistical principle you're invoking? I agree, but [[User:St.nerol|St.nerol]] does not, and he has a quick tendency to remove things. One part of it is that you don't know the magnitude of a number, exponential distribution is a more appropriate model than linear. Another part is about the unlikelihood of the middle digits being zero. - [[User:Frankie|Frankie]] ([[User talk:Frankie|talk]]) 21:37, 11 January 2013 (UTC)
:[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law Benford's law] is about the probability of certain first digit(s). Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/178.26.121.97|178.26.121.97]] 22:34, 11 January 2013 (UTC)

==Volcanoes==
"I forget which one" may be a reference to the 7 known supervolcanoes, or it might be to a list published by the Guardian in 2005 of the top 10 existential threats to life on Earth, which went briefly viral. It included a supervolcano eruption, as well as viral pandemic, meteorite strike, greenhouse gases, superintelligent robots, nuclear war, cosmic rays, terrorism, black holes, and telomere erosion [http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2]

I understand how the hidden numbers could mean that a volcano could either erupt very soon or a very long time. But I don't get why this is a joke. Is there something funnny that I am missing?
:It's a joke, because a supervolcano eruption would have a major impact on the earth, and Black Hat has a timer that will tell him when one will occur, but he is too lazy to see whether it will happen soon.

explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1159: Countdown