explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1204: Detail

2013-04-26T04:44:02Z

Afhoke: Just put a line break between my comment and the previous.

I'm not certain as to what the date should be, as I'm in New Zealand. I've taken one off of my current date (26th) as a precaution. Anyone who knows the right date (or right timezone) please edit it accordingly. --[[User:ZephireNZ|ZephireNZ]] ([[User talk:ZephireNZ|talk]]) 04:25, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

This comic arrive a day early, right?[[User:Afhoke|Afhoke]] ([[User talk:Afhoke|talk]]) 04:42, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1204: Detail

2013-04-26T04:42:59Z

Afhoke:

I'm not certain as to what the date should be, as I'm in New Zealand. I've taken one off of my current date (26th) as a precaution. Anyone who knows the right date (or right timezone) please edit it accordingly. --[[User:ZephireNZ|ZephireNZ]] ([[User talk:ZephireNZ|talk]]) 04:25, 26 April 2013 (UTC)
This comic arrive a day early, right?[[User:Afhoke|Afhoke]] ([[User talk:Afhoke|talk]]) 04:42, 26 April 2013 (UTC)

1202: Girls and Boys

2013-04-23T04:41:35Z

Afhoke: /* Added alternate version of chant */

{{comic
| number = 1202
| date = April 22, 2013
| title = Girls and Boys
| image = girls and boys.png
| titletext = To get more knowledge
}}

==Explanation==

This comic is a play on the popular school-yard taunt, "Girls go to college, to get more knowledge; boys go to Jupiter, to get more stupider," also commonly heard as "Boys go to Mars, to get more candy bars; girls go to Jupiter, to get more stupider." The words "boys" and "girls" may be interchanged depending on the gender of the person chanting. The comic subverts the original rhyme by having both girls and boys go to college to gain knowledge, and then using that knowledge to go to Jupiter as part of a space program.

The schoolyard taunt embodies the competitiveness and separation commonly seen between young boys and girls, taunts about the superiority of one's gender, and superstitions about what happens if you touch or associate with someone of the other gender (you get "cooties"). This comic subverts that mentality and emphasizes learning and cooperation free of gender bias/separation; the title text further emphasizes learning and intellectual improvement because the purpose of "going to Jupiter" is "to get more knowledge."

==Transcript==
:Girls go to college
:To get more knowledge
:[Megan studying at a table.]

:Boys go to college
:To get more knowledge
:[Cueball studying at a table.]

:Girls and boys
:[Space launch control room.]

:Go to Jupiter
:[Rocket launch.]

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians

2012-11-09T21:30:36Z

Afhoke: /* Explanation */ added info on frequentist statistics

{{comic
| number = 1132
| date = November 9, 2012
| title = Frequentists vs. Bayesians
| image = frequentists_vs_bayesians.png
| imagesize =
| titletext = 'Detector! What would the Bayesian statistician say if I asked him whether the--'<br>[roll] 'I AM A NEUTRINO DETECTOR, NOT A LABYRINTH GUARD. SERIOUSLY, DID YOUR BRAIN FALL OUT?'<br>[roll] '... yes.'}}

==Explanation==
This is another comic about the accuracy of presidential election predictions that used Bayesian statistical models, such as Nate Silver's ''538'' and Professor Sam Wang's ''PEC''. Thomas Bayes studied conditional probability - the likelihood that one event is true when given information about some other related event. From Wikipedia: "Bayesian[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem] interpretation expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence".

In the comic, the likelihood that the detector is lying is much higher than the likelihood of the Sun exploding. Therefore, one should conclude that a single "yes" result is probably a false positive. The bit about "p < 0.05" comes from a naive interpretation of modern scientific research standards (known as the P value), where a result is presumed to be valid if there is less than a 5% chance that it came from random chance. There is a 1/36 chance of rolling two sixes on 2d6.

The title and the last two frames suggest that "frequentist" interpretation of statistics is somehow wrong, which is not actually the case. The Bayesian interpretation and the frequentist interpretation are not mutually exclusive and neither is wrong. It's the misuse of P values that causes the character in the panel labeled "Frequentist Statistician" to conclude that the sun has exploded, not the use of frequentist statistics.

The final panel is a tongue-in-cheek reference to the absurdity of the premise. If the sun did explode, he won't need to pay out the bet because the Earth and everyone on it would be destroyed. But if it didn't explode, then he'll win $50.

The title text refers to a classic series of logic puzzles (and the movie Labyrinth), where there are two guards in front of two exit doors, one of which is real and the other leads to death. One guard is a liar and the other tells the truth. The visitor doesn't know which is which, and is allowed to ask one question to one guard. The solution is to ask either guard what the other one would say is the real exit, then choose the opposite.

It is always a good bet that the sun hasn't gone nova, if you can get anyone to take it. When you lose, there will not be time to collect.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]