explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2061: Tectonics Game

2018-10-19T17:15:41Z

IYN: removed incomplete transcript tag

{{comic
| number = 2061
| date = October 19, 2018
| title = Tectonics Game
| image = tectonics_game.png
| titletext = They're limiting the playtesters to type A3 V stars, so the games will all end before the Sun consumes the Earth.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an IGNEOUS PROVINCE: Please edit the explanation below and only mention here why it isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is standing behind Ponytail, who is sitting on the floor playing a video game on a TV.]
:Cueball: What game is that?
:Ponytail: ''Tectonics''! You steer chunks of crust around, rifting, subducting, and building and eroding mountains.
:[The TV displays a diagram of tectonic plates.]

:[A view of the game screen is shown. It includes a large cross-section of the Earth with smaller charts around it.
:Ponytail: You try to keep your climate stable and your biosphere rich. Avoid making large igneous provinces! They're the '''worst'''.

:[Cueball holds his hand out.]
:Cueball: Cool! Can I try?
:Ponytail: Sure!

:[Cueball plays the game.]
:Cueball: ...How do I unpause?
:Ponytail: It's not paused.
:Cueball: ...
:Ponytail: Continents can only move a few inches per year.

:[Cueball holds the controller in one hand, now uninterested in the game.]
:Cueball: It's ''real-time''?
:Ponytail: Just 400 millennia to go until your first mountain achievement!
:[The screen shows an achievement page with nothing completed.]

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2061: Tectonics Game

2018-10-19T17:13:45Z

IYN:

My wife is trying to physically restrain me from immediately starting to write this game...int main ( int arggggg...ow...get off [[User:SteveBaker|SteveBaker]] ([[User talk:SteveBaker|talk]]) 16:52, 19 October 2018 (UTC)

Wrote my first transcript. Hopefully it isn't terrible, haha. [[User:IYN|IYN]] ([[User talk:IYN|talk]]) 17:13, 19 October 2018 (UTC)

2061: Tectonics Game

2018-10-19T17:12:30Z

IYN: Added transcript

{{comic
| number = 2061
| date = October 19, 2018
| title = Tectonics Game
| image = tectonics_game.png
| titletext = They're limiting the playtesters to type A3 V stars, so the games will all end before the Sun consumes the Earth.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an IGNEOUS PROVINCE: Please edit the explanation below and only mention here why it isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

:[Cueball is standing behind Ponytail, who is sitting on the floor playing a video game on a TV.]
:Cueball: What game is that?
:Ponytail: ''Tectonics''! You steer chunks of crust around, rifting, subducting, and building and eroding mountains.
:[The TV displays a diagram of tectonic plates.]

:[A view of the game screen is shown. It includes a large cross-section of the Earth with smaller charts around it.
:Ponytail: You try to keep your climate stable and your biosphere rich. Avoid making large igneous provinces! They're the '''worst'''.

:[Cueball holds his hand out.]
:Cueball: Cool! Can I try?
:Ponytail: Sure!

:[Cueball plays the game.]
:Cueball: ...How do I unpause?
:Ponytail: It's not paused.
:Cueball: ...
:Ponytail: Continents can only move a few inches per year.

:[Cueball holds the controller in one hand, now uninterested in the game.]
:Cueball: It's ''real-time''?
:Ponytail: Just 400 millennia to go until your first mountain achievement!
:[The screen shows an achievement page with nothing completed.]

{{comic discussion}}

Talk:2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem

2018-10-17T15:46:45Z

IYN:

Right now the layout is awful:
:"If <math>P(C)=1</math> the..."
:should look like this:
:"If ''P(C)=1'' the..."
But there is more wrong right now. Look at a typical Wikipedia article, the Math-extension should be used for formulas but not in the floating text. --[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 20:03, 15 October 2018 (UTC)
: Credit for a good explanation though. It made perfect sense to me, even though I didn't understand it. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.167.42|162.158.167.42]] 04:14, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

I removed this, because it makes no sense:

: As an equation, the rewritten form makes no sense. <math>P(H \mid X) = P(H)(1-P(C)) + P(H \mid X)P(C)</math> is strangely self-referential and reduces to the piecewise equation <math>\begin{cases}P(H \mid X) = P(H) & P(C) \neq 1 \\ 0 = 0 & P(C) = 1 \end{cases}</math>. However, the Modified Bayes Theorem includes an extra variable not listed in the conditioning, so a person with an AI background might understand that Randal was trying to write an expression for updating <math>P(H \mid X)</math> with knowledge of <math>C</math> i.e. <math>P(H \mid X,C)</math>, the belief in the hypothesis given the observation <math>X</math> and the confidence that you were applying Bayes' theorem correctly <math>C</math>, for which the expression <math>P(H \mid X,C) = P(H)(1-P(C)) + P(H \mid X)P(C)</math> makes some intuitive sense.

Between removing it and posting here, I think that I've figured out what it's saying. But it comes down to criticizing a mistake made in an earlier edit by the same editor, so I'll just fix that mistake instead.

—[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 13:03, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

What about examples of correct and incorrect use of Bayes' Theorem? I don't feel equal to executing that, but DNA evidence in a criminal case could be illuminating. As a sketch, it may show that of 7 billion people alive today, the blood at the scene came from any one of just 10,000 people of which the accused is one. Interesting, but not absolute. At least 9,999 of the 10,000 are innocent. Probability of mistake or malfeasance by the testing laboratory also needs to be considered. Then there's sports drug testing, disease screening with imperfect tests and rare true positives, etc. rja.carnegie@excite.com [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.82|141.101.76.82]] 09:42, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

Where is the next comic button for this page? [[User:IYN|IYN]] ([[User talk:IYN|talk]]) 15:46, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

Talk:2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem

2018-10-17T15:45:46Z

IYN: