2370: Prediction

2020-10-09T22:12:55Z

Kimsey0: /* Explanation */ Describe context of the 2020 U.S. presidential and congressional elections

{{comic
| number = 2370
| date = October 9, 2020
| title = Prediction
| image = prediction.png
| titletext = You'd think it'd be easy to just bet money against these people, but you have to consider the probability of them paying up.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic is about misunderstanding probability. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if one event is likelier than another to occur, then that event WILL occur, or that if one names two or more outcomes, they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities.

In the last panel, it is shown that [[Cueball]] anticipated this lack of understanding, so he plays pre-recorded audio of his prediction for the conversation.

The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose.

At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections were less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]].

==Transcript==
Cueball: Event A is more likely than Event B.

[White Hat touches chin thoughtfully]

White Hat: So you're saying that Event A will happen.

Cueball: No, Event B could also happen.

White Hat: So you're saying it's 50/50.

Cueball: No, it's definitely not 50/50.

[Cueball produces a phone]

White Hat: Sounds like you have no idea what will happen.

Cueball: And yet I knew exactly how this conversation would go. Here, listen:

<nowiki>*Click*</nowiki>

Phone: ''Then you'll say, "So it's 50/50"''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Math]]

2156: Ufo

2019-05-29T15:54:27Z

Kimsey0: /* Explanation */ Add possible explanation for title text.

{{comic
| number = 2156
| date = May 29, 2019
| title = Ufo
| image = ufo.png
| titletext = "It's a little low for a weather balloon; it might be some other kind." "Yeah. Besides, I know I'm the alien conspiracy guy, but come on--the idea that the government would care about hiding something so mundane as atmospheric temperature measurement is too ridiculous even for me."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by an alien weather balloon. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic features {{w|Fox Mulder}}, depicted as [[Hairy]], and {{w|Dana Scully}}, depicted like no regular women in xkcd. They are the two fictional FBI agents from the television show ''{{w|The X-Files}}''. In the show, Fox Mulder is usually a believer in all manner of conspiracies and supernatural phenomena, whereas his partner, Scully, is reflexively skeptical of any claims of the paranormal.

A fighter aircraft's HUD, or Head-Up Display, projects information about the aircraft's flight and its weapons systems on a glass panel in front of the pilot. This allows the pilot to fly and fight without looking down at gauges and panels in the cockpit. When the pilot selects a radar contact to track, information including the angle and range to that contact is displayed on the HUD. The HUD display is also overlayed on video recorded by the airplane's on-board camera. Scully has examined the tracking information recorded in one video and concluded that the unidentified object was relatively stationary. Her opinion is that the object is likely a mundane weather balloon, rather than an extraterrestrial craft.

"Maybe the shadowy forces that control the world just want to believe" is an allusion to "I Want to Believe", a phrase from the ''The X-Files'' associated with Mulder and [https://images.newrepublic.com/82a6d0770aeaafbae8f26bf40a822b9b79a5c412.png?w=800 his iconic UFO poster.]

The title likely refers to the news that the Trump administration has ordered US government agencies to stop or minimize research and reporting on climate change. Thus, agencies might try to hide the fact that they are doing "something so mundane as atmospheric temperature measurement" in order to not anger the administration.<ref>https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/27/us/politics/trump-climate-science.html</ref>

==Transcript==
:[Mulder from x-files depicted as Hairy sit in his office chair at his desk and points to his computer screen while looking over his sholder and addressing Scully off-panel, who replies.]
:Mulder: Hey Scully, have you seen the navy UFO videos?
:Scully (off-panel): Oh, the History Channel thing?

:[In a frame-less panel, Scully walks in from the right towards Mulder, who has turned around in his chair facing towards her (the desk is not included). He is leaning on the back of the chair with one arm. Scully has shoulder length hair, not similar to any of the regular women in xkcd.]
:Scully: I don't know about the other two videos, but in one of them, if you take the angles and ranges on the HUD and do a little geometry, it kind of suggests the object isn't really moving. It just looks like it because the plane's camera is panning.

:[Zoom in on Scully's head.]
:Scully: The pilots got excited for the same reason we did. Then the media got into it.
:Scully: But I think what they saw was a round, white object floating at 13,000 feet.

:[Zoom out again to shown that Mulder sits straight up in his chair with hands in his lap and the desk with computer behind him. Scully stand in front of him.]
:Harry: So your theory is that the military '''''claims''''' to have footage of aliens, but you think it's a giant cover-up to hide that it's a weather balloon?
:Scully: Some kind of balloon, yes.
:Harry: Pretty weird conspiracy.
:Scully: Maybe the shadowy forces that control the world just want to believe, too.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Conspiracy theory]]
[[Category:Climate change]]

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2370: Prediction

2156: Ufo