explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

Talk:1615: Red Car

2015-12-13T23:12:17Z

MGK:

Penises: They're about ''this'' red. Now can we please, as a culture, move on? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.210.206|108.162.210.206]] 08:40, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

I would also like to point out that if your penis is any kind of blue color, you are probably having a medical emergency, in which case you should be taking much more serious steps than purchasing a particular kind of car to compensate. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.236.151|108.162.236.151]] 21:55, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

Is this the first time, color is used in the comics? --[[User:Widescape|Robert]] ([[User talk:Widescape|talk]]) 09:43, 11 December 2015 (UTC)
:No, there are a lot more [[:Category:Comics with color|comics with color]] {{User:17jiangz1/signature|09:56, 11 December 2015}}

I think the joke is that red has a longer wavelength than cyan (nanometers of difference). Not anything to do with colour theory. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.133.96|162.158.133.96]] 10:06, 11 December 2015 (UTC)
:I'll have you know that a few nanometres make ''all'' the difference, for some people. Click here for the miracle pill you must have!
:(Seriously, as stated elsewhere, it's opposites. Big car, small equipment; RGB(100%,0%,0%) car, RGB(0%,100%,100%) equipment; pH>7 car, pH<7 equipment. Perhaps an annotated colour-wheel picture in the explanation, as a visual guide?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.152.227|162.158.152.227]] 12:10, 11 December 2015 (UTC)
:It seems to me it could also be a reference Anaglyph 3D red-cyan glasses. Bigger color difference makes things look closer to the viewer and thus larger. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaglyph_3D#Interference_filter_systems Wikipedia] {{unsigned ip|108.162.218.47}}
:sorry, I am calling this for 162.158.133.96. Big wavelength vs small wavelength. Big ph number (alkali) vs small ph number(acid). Its consistent. This is fundamentally a big vs small penis joke. In fact, think i am gonna make an edit ... [[User:Plm-qaz snr|Plm-qaz snr]] ([[User talk:Plm-qaz snr|talk]]) 12:53, 13 December 2015 (UTC)
:Although a low pH indicates a high concentration of H+ ions. In that sense, acidic is high and alkaline is low. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 23:12, 13 December 2015 (UTC)

The mouse over text makes it fairly clear that it's a joke about opposites. If anything could be added to the explanation as it stands, I might clarify that red and cyan are specifically colors of light. When shone on a single area (and therefor mixed) these two colors will create white light. When these colors of light are represented on a color wheel, they are placed opposite each other. So cyan and red in this sense fit as opposites, like big and small, alkaline and acidic. {{unsigned ip|108.162.227.125}}

For some reason, this made me laugh extremely hard. I've been up all night and maybe it's sleep deprivation, as it makes me do weird things, like bingewatch on several ISS videos simultaneously. [[User:International Space Station|International Space Station]] ([[User talk:International Space Station|talk]]) 10:56, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

There is also a common stereotype that a car's color reveals something about its owner's psychology (e.g. [https://www.thecaretrust.ie/colour-of-car-personality here]). So, I think Megan is not only generalizing one stereotype but rather mixing two stereotypes, as in other comics. Zetfr 11:41, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

Is this the shortest complete explanation on this site? {{unsigned|B0xertw1n}}
:[[3: Island (sketch)]] and [[28: Elefino]] are shorter. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.221.17|108.162.221.17]] 12:53, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

[[Wikipedia:Litmus|Litmus]] anyone? --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.106.233|141.101.106.233]] 13:40, 11 December 2015 (UTC)

Alternative interpretation of the alt-text: the alkaline car could additionally refer to an electric car powered by an alkaline battery [[Special:Contributions/141.101.91.163|141.101.91.163]] 22:55, 11 December 2015 (UTC)
:Yeah I also felt that there had to be some more to the alt-text than just another random opposite. Maybe that's it. Or some wordplay that I don't see? -- [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.192|162.158.91.192]] 01:40, 12 December 2015 (UTC) A hydrogen powered car would then have a low pH due to high amounts of hydrogen... and thus be highly acidic?

I think that the contributor two items up has the right idea about the title text. Litmus is an indicator of an acidic or alkaline solution. An acidic solution turns litmus paper red, an alkaline solution turns it blue.
The current explanation of the title text " An alkaline solutions is a basic solution. Thus, men that drive basic cars are compensating for their acidic penises." Does not make any sense to me. ([[User:Paw 42|Paw 42]] ([[User talk:Paw 42|talk]]) 18:48, 12 December 2015 (UTC))

Talk:1545: Strengths and Weaknesses

2015-07-02T01:21:41Z

MGK: predicate logic geekery

For anyone who wants to take a stab at a more thorough (or better written) explanation of ancestry, the wiki pages for {{w|Identical_ancestors_point}} and {{w|Most_recent_common_ancestor}} helped me to start understanding the topic. I think its easy to jump to the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that Cueball will be the ancestor of all living humans, however it isn't quite as intuitive as I believed. --[[User:Pudder|Pudder]] ([[User talk:Pudder|talk]]) 16:17, 1 July 2015 (UTC)

I don't understand, why would come a day that he is "either an ancestor to all living humans, or to none of them"? It's very possible for him to be the ancestor to ''some'' living humans forever [[User:Egoist|Egoist]] ([[User talk:Egoist|talk]]) 19:44, 1 July 2015 (UTC)
:If you have lots of children, and then if people interbreed randomly, as time goes forward it becomes less and less likely that any randomly selected person is ''not'' one of your descendents. As probability of ''not'' goes to zero, fraction of ''yes'' goes to 100%. But, if you do not have lots of children, and your kids don't either, at some future moment you may have zero descendents, and after that statistics cannot save you. [[User:Pesthouse|Pesthouse]] ([[User talk:Pesthouse|talk]]) 22:36, 1 July 2015 (UTC)

Two cases that haven't been dealt with:
1.) Humanity gets wiped out before this happens, so there are no living humans for Cueball to be ancestor to tor not. (0/0 case)

2.) Through physical separation, humanity diverges into 2 or more species, and Cueball is only an ancestor to some of these different species. Would all of these species be considered humans? I'm not familiar with the semantics.

I'm also not sure how likely either of these are.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.100|108.162.215.100]] 20:29, 1 July 2015 (UTC)
: In your case (1), that means he will *both* be the ancestor to all people or to none. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 01:21, 2 July 2015 (UTC)

Also! Assuming Cueball hasn't had kids yet, he is already an ancestor to no living humans. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.100|108.162.215.100]] 23:47, 1 July 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1417: Seven

2014-09-06T14:12:20Z

MGK: not repeating lists

Guacamole = 7-layer dip ingredient
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.81|108.162.215.81]] 05:08, 5 September 2014 (UTC)Anonymous XKCD reader

Seventh Seal more likely to be a reference to Book of Revelation (I think he's brought it up before?) or the film? [[Special:Contributions/199.27.133.96|199.27.133.96]] 05:17, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

Arctic Ocean is one of the modern Seven "Seas" of the world.
Green is the 4th color of seven in the Arthur Hamilton song "I Can Sing a Rainbow". {{unsigned ip|108.162.249.212}}

I guess the title text is a play on the fact that the dwarves in the new Snow White (2001) movie are called Monday, Tuesday, ... That is the connection between Snow White dwarves and days of the week. The filmmakers decided to intermix sets of seven in the first place. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.254.90|108.162.254.90]] 06:27, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

There could be a pattern with order.

*Sneezy: 1st dwarf of the seven dwarves in Snow White.
*Phylum: 2nd rank in the Seven Taxonomic Ranks
*Europe: 3rd continent of the world
*Sloth: 4th sin of the Seven Deadly Sin
*Guacamole: 5th Layer in a 7 Layer Bean Dip
*Data Link: 6th Layer in the OSI Model
*Collosus of Rhodes: 7th Wonder of the Ancient World

*Monday: 1st Day of the Week (American).
*Arctic: 2nd ocean in the modern Seven "Seas" of the world.
*Wellesley: 3rd college of the Seven Sister colleges
*Green: 4th color in the Arthur Hamilton song "I Can Sing a Rainbow".
*Electra: 5th sister of the Pleiades, the Seven Sisters.
*Synergize: 6th Habit in the Stephen R. Covey self-help book "Seven Habits of Highly Effective People".
*Seventh Seal: 7th Seal of the Seven Seals in the Book of Revelations

{{unsigned ip|108.162.249.212}}

:The list on the page needs to be fixed to show Europe third. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.213|141.101.99.213]] 11:15, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

The Pleiades is Randall's favorite constellation. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.237.161|108.162.237.161]] 08:40, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

It sure is nice seeing the explanation getting more refined and complete every time I visit... [[Special:Contributions/103.22.201.168|103.22.201.168]] 10:37, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

I've always been told there are only six continents. North America and South America are one continent. The seventh continent sometimes refers to this gigantic area filled with plastic rubbish in the Pacific Ocean. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.143|108.162.229.143]] 11:47, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
: See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uBcq1x7P34 But no one talks about the Great Pacific garbage patch as a continent. 7 continents is the most common model, with some (mainly Latin Americans) considering the Americas a single continent. Some others consider Eurasia a single continent (personally that's what I prefer, it makes the most sense). --[[User:Zagorath|Zagorath]] ([[User talk:Zagorath|talk]]) 12:12, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
: I've only ever heard folks say there are seven continents. By strict definition of the word, North and South America do form a single continent (at least did prior to the Panama Canal cutting them apart) the vast majority of people see then as two separate continents. Dividing the Eurasian landmass in two, however, that one never made much sense. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.117|199.27.128.117]] 16:53, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

: I think the garbage patch confusion stems from the mislabeled picture of a bunch of floating garbage. In fact it's very spread out and in no way possible to confuse with a landmass. See [http://io9.com/5911969/lies-youve-been-told-about-the-pacific-garbage-patch http://io9.com/5911969/lies-youve-been-told-about-the-pacific-garbage-patch] --[[User:JSekula71|JSekula71]] ([[User talk:JSekula71|talk]]) 08:46, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

Guacamole may also be a reference to a famous joke which made the rounds about 15 years ago, where somebody had compared the 7 layers of the OSI network model to Taco Bell's 7-layer burrito. Guacamole was the 5th layer, which lends credence to this idea. It's still available on the WayBack Machine: http://web.archive.org/web/19990826193318/http://www.europa.com/~dogman/osi/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.151|108.162.219.151]] 11:59, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

I suspect Electra is from the list of extant complete plays of Sophocles: Ajax, Antigone, The Women of Trachis, Oedipus the King, Electra, Philoctetes and Oedipus at Colonus. [[User:Besimmons|Besimmons]] ([[User talk:Besimmons|talk]]) 13:42, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

I find it interesting that although Randall is American he lists Monday as the first day of the week. That's where it's positioned in most cultures outside the USA, but Americans normally consider Sunday to be the first day. --[[User:RenniePet|RenniePet]] ([[User talk:RenniePet|talk]]) 13:51, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
: I can't speak for anyone outside the US, but as someone who has spent 99.9% of my life within US borders (few weeks in Canada, if you think that should essentially count...), I only acknowledge that the first day listed on any monthly calendar I see around here is most often Sunday. If you were to ask me what the first day of the week is, I would very quickly and easily say "Monday". That is what I'm teaching my 4- and 2-year olds... There are a few reasons I would give to explain that other than "I think of it as the first day of the week". It's the first work day of the "work week", and since life is for most people centered around one form of work or another, that gives the "work week" high importance. By extension, Sunday is the last day in the "weekend". By Judeo-Christian beliefs, God rested on the "seventh" Day - most Christians believe that to be Sunday; others (I believe mostly Jewish) believe it to be Saturday - I think, though that even those who consider Saturday to be a holy day, if you were to ask them in casual conversation what the first day of the week is (I may be wrong, but), I think they would say "Monday"... (?) Any other "Americans" or "Non-Americans" (I'd ask for you to clearly identify with one or the other) want to weight in on this? - [[User:Brettpeirce|Brettpeirce]] ([[User talk:Brettpeirce|talk]]) 15:51, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
::I can't really comment on anything talked about by Brettpeirce, but I can say a few words about the "first day of the week" problem as seen by a computer programmer. It causes huge problems when your program displays a calendar because you have to take into account that Americans want it one way and most other people want it a different way. And supposedly simple things like scheduling an appointment "first work day next week" has a completely different result if it is done on a Sunday in the USA or on a Sunday in Europe. And then there's the problem of week numbers (used a lot in Europe but not so much in the USA). Week numbers depend on which week is designated as the first week of the year, which in most countries is defined as the first week with at least 4 days in the year. Now if January 3rd is Sunday, then in the USA it is the start of week 1, while in Europe it is the last day of the last week of the previous year (week 52 or 53). It's enough to drive you to drink (which is OK on Sunday some places but not others). --[[User:RenniePet|RenniePet]] ([[User talk:RenniePet|talk]]) 20:36, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
:::Oh, and then there are the incompatibilities in programming languages. American-developed computer languages like C and Basic and C++ and C# number the week days 0 - 6 meaning Sunday - Saturday. Meanwhile Java numbers week days 1 - 7 meaning Sunday - Saturday, except that the newest version, Java 8, has improved date/time facilities, and if you use them then week days are numbered 1 - 7 meaning Monday - Sunday. --[[User:RenniePet|RenniePet]] ([[User talk:RenniePet|talk]]) 20:52, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

I find instead interesting that he makes no mention of the seven notes, while mentioning other sets less ubiquitous --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.163|108.162.229.163]] 14:13, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

OMFG, the second picture of a dwarf in the list is Dopey, why the hell did somebody say it's Fievel!? http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=seven+dwarfs+dopey&qpvt=Seven+Dwarves+Dopey&FORM=IGRE
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.40|108.162.216.40]] 19:44, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
:The Dwarfs here are drawn somewhat off-model, with bigger noses than in Disney artwork. Perhaps someone is confusing the second figure's nose, which is drawn much larger than Dopey's, with Fievel's other ear. It's similar to the [http://www.funnyjunk.com/funny_pictures/1543622/Gardevoir/ Gardevoir nose illusion]. --[[User:Tepples|Tepples]] ([[User talk:Tepples|talk]]) 20:16, 5 September 2014 (UTC)
::To be fair, the dwarves are more on-model than the people. -[[Special:Contributions/173.245.56.186|173.245.56.186]] 03:09, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

Arctic is the second ocean alphabetically. Someone should change the list to reflect that, I think. [[User:Zweisteine|Zweisteine]] ([[User talk:Zweisteine|talk]]) 19:53, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

Re the "trivia" note suggesting Arctic is a deliberate mistake for Antartica in the list of continents: Even if I thought Randall might be including deliberate mistakes, it is unlikely he'd use the continents as a list in the title. He already used them in the main comic, and he didn't repeat any other sevens. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 14:12, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

1374: Urn

2014-05-28T17:01:39Z

MGK: /* Explanation */ the two different probability problems

{{comic
| number = 1374
| date = May 28, 2014
| title = Urn
| image = urn.png
| titletext = Can this PLEASE be drawing with replacement?
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|More in-depth? Why does Megan imagine that the urn contains ashes?}}
A common scenario for teaching elementary probability theory is drawing coloured balls from a container, such as a bag, hat, and traditionally quite often an urn. The word 'urn' is by many people (apparently including Megan) associated with the receptacle used to collect the human (or possibly animal) ashes that remain after a cremation. This explains why Megan, when asked to imagine drawing balls from an urn, imagines an urn containing not (only) balls, but (also) human remains. One could speculate that her grandfather recently died, leading her to make this irrational connection.

The title text refers to two distinct scenarios in the coloured ball experiment: The balls may be replaced between each drawing, or not. In the former case, each draw is independent of the previous, in the latter the chances of picking a particular (remaining) ball the next time have increased. Megan (or rather Randall if it is he who speaks in the title text) would prefer to put the ashes back into the urn.

The distinction between repeated drawing with and without replacement is used in most presentations of elementary probability because it illustrates a subtle but important theoretical distinction: if the balls are replaced, one at a time, before drawing the next, the number of balls of a certain colour has the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution binomial distribution], but if the balls are not replaced, so that the same ball cannot be drawn twice, you instead get the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution hypergeometric distribution].

==Transcript==
[Cueball is standing in a classroom with Megan at a desk.]

Cueball: Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls - six red and nine black.

Megan: OK. I reach in and... '''''My grandfather's ashes?!? Oh god!'''''

Cueball: I... what?

Megan: '''''Why would you do this to me?!?'''''

{{comic discussion}}

1335: Now

2014-02-27T22:00:39Z

MGK: Newfoundland Standard Time

<div class="plainlinks">
{{comic
| number = 1335
| before = ''Explainxkcd note: The image below is accelerated to show a full day's spin in approximately 10 seconds. The actual comic completes one revolution per day. For the current state, see [http://xkcd.com/now/ http://xkcd.com/now]''
| date = February 26, 2014
| title = Now
| image = now.gif
| titletext = This image stays roughly in sync with the day (assuming the Earth continues spinning). Shortcut: [http://xkcd.com/now xkcd.com/now]
}}
</div>

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Too many guesses, too many parentheses, maybe more. The time zones need an explain.}}
The picture is divided in 22 segments representing the 24 hours of the day. Noon and Midnight actually mean 11-13 and 23-1.

The picture rotates by 3.75 {{w|degree (angle)|degrees}} every 15 minutes (so far, and presumably forever), as does the Earth, so that it is constantly up to date in showing which regions are currently at which times of day. The picture change seems to happen half-way through a 15-minute time increment (that is, at 7½, 22½, 37½, and 52½ minutes after each hour), so that the picture is always correct for the nearest multiple of 15 minutes.

The map projection of the earth in the middle of the picture shows an {{w|azimuthal equidistant projection}} with the {{w|South Pole}} in the center which is uncommon because most times this projection has the North Pole at its center. [[Randall]] was playing on projections before here: [[ 977: Map Projections ]].

The list of cities and countries doesn't always match the map, because the list takes into account local variations in {{w|time zone}}s. The map shows the current (February 2014) configuration of time zones with respect to {{w|daylight saving time}} (also known as summer time), which is being observed at the time of the comic's initial release in parts of Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and other countries not named in this comic. If the map is to stay accurate through the year, the location of place names will have to move over the next few months as parts of the southern hemisphere go off DST and parts of the northern hemisphere go onto it, but we don't yet know whether this will happen.

In many countries, {{w|business hours}} are considered to be from 9 am to 5 pm. With some exceptions, including emergencies, it is generally considered rude to place a {{w|telephone}} call to someone's residence during the hours when most people are asleep (Randall portrays this time period as extending from 10 pm to 8 am). This may be a reference to the 10 pm "cutoff" time [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0WeQJW-H3Y discussed] in an episode of "Curb Your Enthusiasm."

On midnight at UTC we can see this situation:
*00:00 UTC {{w|Greenwich Mean Time}}
::UK, Portugal
::West Africa
*01:00 UTC {{w|Central European Time}}
::Most of central Europe
::Nigeria, and many more countries belonging to the {{w|West Africa Time}} zone
*02:00 UTC {{w|Eastern European Time}}
::Eastern Europe, many countries like Bulgaria, Romania or Greece
::The {{w|Levant}} (Cyprus, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, Israel, and a part of southern Turkey)
::Egypt
*03:00 UTC {{w|UTC+03:00}} (East Africa Time, Eastern Europe Forward Time, and Arabia Standard Time)
::Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Somalia, and more
::Kaliningrad and Belarus
::Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and more.
::Iran is at {{w|Iran Standard Time}}, using an offset of UTC+03:30
*04:00 UTC {{w|UTC+04:00}}
::{{w|Moscow Time}}
::United Arab Emirates, Mauritius, and more
::Afghanistan is at {{w|Time in Afghanistan}}, using an offset of UTC+04:30
::Iran is at {{w|Iran Standard Time}}, using an offset of UTC+03:30
*05:00 UTC {{w|UTC+05:00}}
::Pakistan, Western Australia, Maldives and some France former colonies.
::Afghanistan is at {{w|Time in Afghanistan}}, using an offset of UTC+04:30
::India and Sri Lanka using {{w|UTC+05:30}}
::Nepal is using a much more odd offset at {{w|UTC+05:45}}
*06:00 UTC {{w|UTC+06:00}}
::Bangladesh, Bhutan...
::UK {{w|British Indian Ocean Territory}}
::Russia at {{w|Yekaterinburg Time}}, also Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan
::China doesn't use only a single time zone because Xinjiang and Tibet are different.
::India and Sri Lanka using {{w|UTC+05:30}}
::Nepal is using a much more odd offset at {{w|UTC+05:45}}
*07:00 UTC {{w|UTC+07:00}}
::South-east Asia like Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and more
::Christmas Island belonging to Australia
::Russia is also using the {{w|Omsk Time}}
*08:00 UTC {{w|UTC+08:00}}
::Western Australia
::China uses only {{w|Time in China|one time zone}} while the country spans about five.
::Singapore
::Philippines
::Perth
*09:00 UTC {{w|UTC+09:00}}
::Japan
::The Koreas
*10:00 UTC {{w|UTC+10:00}}
::Brisbane and the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania and Victoria
::US: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands
*11:00 UTC {{w|UTC+11:00}}
::Micronesia, New Caledonia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
::Russia {{w|Vladivostok Time}}
*12:00 UTC {{w|UTC+12:00}} or {{w|UTC−12:00}}
::Kamchatka (a Russian peninsula at the east Siberia), Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tuvalu, Tuvalu, and more
*13:00 UTC {{w|UTC+13:00}} or {{w|UTC−11:00}}
::New Zealand, Kiribati, Tonga, Hawaii
*14:00 UTC {{w|UTC+14:00}} or {{w|UTC−10:00}}
::Hawaii, Samoa
::Alaska, French Polynesia, Cook Islands, and more
::Line Islands, belonging to Kiribati
*15:00 UTC {{w|UTC−09:00}}
::Alaska and French Polynesia
*16:00 UTC {{w|Pacific Time Zone}}
::US West Coast
::Canada (British Columbia and Yukon)
::Mexico (Baja California)
*17:00 UTC {{w|Mountain Time Zone}}
::US: Denver, and much more
::Canada: Alberta, British Columbia, more
*18:00 UTC {{w|Central Time Zone}}
::Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Nicaragua and more
::US: Chicago, Texas except of some most westernmost counties, and many more
*19:00 UTC {{w|Eastern Time Zone}}
::Eastern Canada like Ontario or Quebec
::US East Coast including New York and Florida.
::But also Cuba, Haiti, Panama and much more countries
*20:00 UTC {{w|UTC−04:00}} or {{w|Atlantic Time Zone}}
::Canadian Maritimes: New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia. (Newfoundland uses {{w|UTC-03:30}} )
::Chile
::Greenland
::Most of the Caribbean Islands.
*21:00 UTC {{w|UTC−03:00}}
::Coastal Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, French Guiana, the UK Falkland Islands, and more
*22:00 UTC {{w|UTC−02:00}}
::UK: South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
::Brazil: Fernando de Noronha
*23:00 UTC {{w|UTC−01:00}}
::Cape Verde
::Portugal: Azores

==Technical notes==
When first posted, the picture was exactly 12 hours off. Somewhere around 5:10 UTC, this was fixed. The original version also included a listing for Inland Brazil; this could have created a conflict with US East Coast when Daylight-Saving Time begins in the US, and it has been removed.

The names used for the image files refer not to {{w|Universal Time|UTC (Universal Time)}} as one might expect but rather to the time exactly 12 hours off of that. The name of the image file linked from the page matched Universal Time during the first few hours, but the file-naming scheme did not change when the comic was corrected.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|The table should be removed by a more simple way for showing the content here. And the table is incorrect.}}

[The comic is a moving circle with a static outer ring]

[The outermost part of the static ring is divided in 22 segments representing the 24 hours of the day. Noon and Midnight actually mean 11-13 and 23-1]
:Noon - 6 PM - Midnight - 6 AM

[The innermost part of the static ring contains descriptions of the time intervals]
:Business hours (9-5) [i.e. 9 AM - 5 PM]
:Rude to call [11 PM - 6 AM]

[On the outermost ring of the moving circle are written names of the regions of the Earth]
:UK - Most of Europe - Eastern Europe - Iraq - Moscow - Pakistan - Southeast Asia - China - Singapore - Japan - The Koreas - Kamchatka
:Alaska - US West Coast - Denver - Mexico - Eastern Canada - Canadian Maritimes

[On the second ring, counting from out to in, are the names of some cities, countries and states.]
:West Africa - Nigeria - The Levant - Egypt - East Africa - Iran - Afghanistan - India - Java - Philippines - Perth - Brisbane - Most Australian cities - New Zealand
:Chicago - Texas - US East coast - Coastal Brazil

[On the third ring are the names of some continents.]
:Europe Asia
:North America

[On the fourth ring are the names of the other continents.]
:Africa - Oceania
:South America

[On the innermost part of the circle is the Earth as seen from the south pole.]

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics with color]]

1218: Doors of Durin

2013-05-29T13:43:27Z

MGK: It was Gandalf who solved the riddle.

{{comic
| number = 1218
| date = May 29, 2013
| title = Doors of Durin
| image = doors of durin.png
| titletext = If we get the doors open and plug up the dam on the Sirannon so the water rises a little, the pool will start draining into Moria. How do you think the Watcher would fare against a drenched Balrog?
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|1218: Doors of Durin}}
Based on the Lord of the Rings: An incident in 'The Fellowship of the Ring' where the titular fellowship is trapped outside the door to the Mines of Moria. There's a spoken password to open the doors, an elvish inscription on them provides a clue: "Speak friend, and enter". The party leader (Gandalf), initially interprets this to mean that a friend could speak the password and enter. Only after much unsuccessful effort he finally realizes it's actually a very simple riddle: The password is the Elvish word for 'friend' ('mellon'), and the inscription should in fact be interpreted as "Say ''friend'', and enter". (See {{w|Use–mention distinction}}.)

In this comic, Cueball, White Hat, and Megan reenact the scene, with Cueball taking the role of 'Gandalf'. The doors apparently open off-panel when the password is spoken. White Hat then wonders aloud what the elvish word for 'frenemy' is, and Cueball postulates 'Mellogoth'. (A portmanteau of 'mellon' and 'Morgoth'; much like how 'frenemy' is a portmanteau of 'friend' and 'enemy'. Morgoth being essentially the Middle-Earth version of Satan, taken from the Silmarillion: Morgoth is often referred to as 'The Enemy' rather than by name. Sauron, known as 'The Enemy' later on, was Morgoth's second in command before Morgoth was banished from the world.) The doors apparently immediately slam shut the moment Cueball says 'Mellogoth', suggesting he may be correct.

The title text ponders what would occur if the Sirannon, a stream running adjacent to the path leading to the doors, were to be completely blocked with the doors left open. The already partially blocked Sirannon had formed a pool before the doors; which contained some sort of monstrous horror from the depths of the Earth, referred to as 'the watcher in the water' for lack of a proper name(it 'watches' the doors). Randall seems to think that the pond draining into the mines would anger another horror within: the Balrog (a high-level servant of Morgoth) living within the depths of the mines (Balrogs being primarily creatures of fire and shadow, having a bunch of water dumped on it is unlikely to please it). He then goes on to wonder how long the Watcher could last in a battle with the angry (but wet) Balrog.

==Transcript==
:Megan: I've got it!
:Megan: What's the elvish word for friend?
:Cueball: ''Mellon.''

:''RUMBLE''

:White Hat: So what's the elvish word for "frenemy"?
:Cueball: ''...Mellogoth?''
:'''SLAM!!'''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:LOTR]]

Talk:1210: I'm So Random

2013-05-10T10:44:54Z

MGK: random vs. looking-random

;"Random"
Are the numbers in the speech bubble truely random (as in is there a real pattern)? Can someone check?
--[[User:Charlesisbozo|Charlesisbozo]] ([[User talk:Charlesisbozo|talk]]) 08:54, 10 May 2013 (UTC)

:I was wondering that myself. I did a quick tally of the digits and for 0..9 I have frequencies of {24,9,18,18,14,17,14,8,9,14} respectively for the readily identifiable digits (YMMV, and while I counted the probable 5 behind Hairy's left ear, I didn't count the ''possible'' five behind his left knee, for example.) It doesn't seem to have fallen for the "too many 3s and 7s" trap, nor "too ''few'' 3s and 7s, because I know I'll pick them if I try to be random" one, because one is 'high' and one is 'low'. Ditto the "avoiding zero and using nine a lot", says I, vaguely half remembering something from the New Scientists a decade or two ago... While it's not a ''flat'' distribution, I'd also suspect it as 'constructed' if it ''was'' nearly equal tallies. Someone else can probably tell me if this sample of 145 is within variation limits but I'm still going on intuition.
:What I was originally going to do is also go so far as to compare neighbours-on-neighbours. It appeared to me that there were two many like-like neighbours. It's not as easy as in if a grid-system (without holes, etc), but I trivially count a couple of dozen (probably more) and even some 'triples' and that 'stripe' of zeros (from top down to his right knee) is interesting.
::That's a sign that it probably is random. Over 100 digits, let's say average 5 neighbours (in a hex grid the internal ones would each have 6 but the ones on the edge fewer), there must be close to 300 or more pairs of neighbours. One-tenth of those would be identical. Truly random sequences have far more identical neighbours than sequences that seem random to us. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 10:44, 10 May 2013 (UTC)
:Preliminarily, I choose to believe that Randall used a PRNG or even a noise source and stuck to it (''even when'' patterns may have become apparent). Also that, on examining the image closely, he pasted Hairy's anti-aliased image over the top of the numbers then did a little extra editing. ;) [[Special:Contributions/178.98.253.89|178.98.253.89]] 10:24, 10 May 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1203: Time Machines

2013-04-24T23:46:50Z

MGK:

This one kinda went over my head; the explanation is the best I could come up with. [[User:Alpha|Alpha]] ([[User talk:Alpha|talk]]) 05:00, 24 April 2013 (UTC)
:Examine the transcript and Cueball's movement in the second and third panel. The time machine in this comic is a time-reversing one, not a time jumping one. '''[[User:Davidy22|{{Color|#707|David}}y²²]]'''[[User talk:Davidy22|<tt>[talk]</tt>]] 05:13, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

My thoguhts:
Cueball turns on the time machine, which starts up and they start going back in time, returning to the time the machine it turned on. Time is going in perfect reverse, so the machine switches off and then he is back where he started. [[Special:Contributions/216.81.49.162|216.81.49.162]] 05:10, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

I didn't get it when I first read it, and this explanation seems to make the most sense; if it is the intended joke, I wish Randall would have reversed the sound effect "click" in the third panel ("!kcilC"), which would indicate that time is moving backwards (from the reference frame we're watching it from), which would have made this explanation more obvious for me.[[Special:Contributions/64.20.186.2|64.20.186.2]] 18:22, 24 April 2013 (UTC)larK

The Machine even turns back Cueballs actions, so maybe even his memory of turning it on, what might make him so puzzled - eventually - if he decides rational to try the machine (and if desicdes always rational) - he will get in a loop of turning it on - travelling back and forgetting that event - and turning it on again. - That might get Interesting [[Special:Contributions/212.202.64.10|212.202.64.10]] 05:32, 24 April 2013 (UTC) Lupo

I don't think he looks puzzled because nothing happened, I think he's curious b/c he just came across a Time Machine. That is, the last frame of the strip takes place seconds before the first. So the "trouble" with time machines (of this variety) is that if you go back in time you can't take the present with you, and nothing changes.
[[Special:Contributions/76.95.49.45|76.95.49.45]] 06:00, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

Alternative view: Feedback. Stephen Hawking has discussed the general problem with a whole class of time machines (namely, wormwhole based time machines), where the energy from the future is added exponentially to the system due to system feedback. More or less as a microphone cannot get too close to its speaker without having that horrible sound. This would explain who the guy in the comic turns the machine off... there is a large buildup of energy feedback and this can be observed in the EEEEE...

"In the end, I think a wormhole like this one can't exist. And the reason for that is feedback. If you've ever been to a rock gig, you'll probably recognise this screeching noise. It's feedback. What causes it is simple. Sound enters the microphone. It's transmitted along the wires, made louder by the amplifier, and comes out at the speakers. But if too much of the sound from the speakers goes back into the mic it goes around and around in a loop getting louder each time. If no one stops it, feedback can destroy the sound system.
The same thing will happen with a wormhole, only with radiation instead of sound. As soon as the wormhole expands, natural radiation will enter it, and end up in a loop. The feedback will become so strong it destroys the wormhole. So although tiny wormholes do exist, and it may be possible to inflate one some day, it won't last long enough to be of use as a time machine. That's the real reason no one could come back in time to my party.

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1269288/STEPHEN-HAWKING-How-build-time-machine.html#ixzz2RMMowXrs" {{unsigned ip|128.12.95.6}}

But with that above analogy, in a sound system, you have external power to amplify the signal - the energy the microphone takes out is not what gets put back out. In a wormhole, unless there is something to amplify the radiation that comes out the other end then it's a closed system (and if you do amplify it then where did THAT energy come from). (Nigel 08:39, 24th April (UTC))

A more generalized flow chart explaining the problem with time machines, assuming you get to keep moving forward: http://i4.minus.com/jqqrkqg1QKp84.png --[[User:Willowy burrito|Willowy burrito]] ([[User talk:Willowy burrito|talk]]) 13:17, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

Another problem with this design of a time machine is that it draws power from the wall. What would happen if he crosses the time when there was no outlet at that location? Or no power grid at all? But that may not pose a problem here because it seems he doesn't get too far back into the past anyway. So, for our future time machine inventors: make those machines self-contained! --[[Special:Contributions/216.165.95.66|216.165.95.66]] 15:24, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

:I think that pretty much somes up why some people think you can't use a time machine to go back in time before the time machine ''itself'' existed. If it was an ancient time machine, you could go back quite far, but if one was made on February 5, 2013 you couldn't travel before that point because the time machine wouldn't exist before that time, so no time machine anymore, no travel. Hence what you said about crossing the time when there was no outlet. Cueball couldn't go back that far. --[[User:Dangerkeith3000|Dangerkeith3000]] ([[User talk:Dangerkeith3000|talk]]) 15:36, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

:: Paging <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Beckett#Dr._Beckett.27s_string_theory">Dr Sam Beckett</a>... [[Special:Contributions/67.51.59.66|67.51.59.66]] 16:30, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

:You can always use lightning ;-) Sebastian, --[[Special:Contributions/178.26.45.117|178.26.45.117]] 16:58, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

::1.21 GIGAWATTS! --[[User:Dangerkeith3000|Dangerkeith3000]] ([[User talk:Dangerkeith3000|talk]]) 21:17, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

PRIMER!!!!!!!{{unsigned|Robot123}}

Ugh! The original explanation (going back in time by one second) is drastically over thought. It's a "time machine" that does nothing other than make a noise -- just a box with a switch. Cueball turns it on, and a second later turns it off, thus having traveled through time into the future by one second. The T numbers are incrementing, just as they always do, even prior to a rocket launch. We're all traveling through time -- "all systems ARE normal." Please reconsider. Jeff. {{unsigned ip|69.130.242.120}}

: Except that he is travelling into the *past* by one second. He goes from T-10 to T-11 - that's back in time. I think the original explanation is on the button. As soon as he starts to go back in time, he undoes the action of activating the machine, so he doesn't get anywhere. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 23:46, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

um... no. it's called "countdown" for a reason.[[Special:Contributions/212.186.64.47|212.186.64.47]] 17:47, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

: I agree with [[Special:Contributions/212.186.64.47|212.186.64.47]], I also think Cueball moved 1 second into the future, much like [[630: Time Travel]] [[User:Saibot84|Saibot84]] ([[User talk:Saibot84|talk]]) 19:12, 24 April 2013 (UTC)
: How about putting this as an alternative explanation? The current explanation makes sense to me but the forward version is just as funny. [[User:Alpha|Alpha]] ([[User talk:Alpha|talk]]) 19:37, 24 April 2013 (UTC)
:But then it wouldn't go "EEEEEeeeee *click*". It would be "*click* EEEEEeeeee"... [[Special:Contributions/162.72.40.137|162.72.40.137]] 21:03, 24 April 2013 (UTC)
:: Touché. I thought all the events in panel 3 happened at the same time. [[User:Alpha|Alpha]] ([[User talk:Alpha|talk]]) 21:46, 24 April 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1173: Steroids

2013-02-15T15:16:42Z

MGK: /* Douglas Adams */

Does anyone know what that 'something' is? That's what I came here to find out... :/ --[[User:NeatNit|NeatNit]] ([[User talk:NeatNit|talk]]) 11:57, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

:I had a lot of ideas, but I don't know. It might be a molecule, some sort of portal transmitting sound, a star, a future life form.
:--[[User:Jaap-Jan|Jaap-Jan]] ([[User talk:Jaap-Jan|talk]]) 12:13, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

::My first instinct was that Megan was talking to the asterisk that gets put next to world records held by athletes who have been suspected of using steroids.
::[[User:Smperron|Smperron]] ([[User talk:Smperron|talk]]) 17:08, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

:::It looks to me like the God from Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal. Though that God would know all about the steroid scandal, presumably. [[Special:Contributions/98.234.113.134|98.234.113.134]] 00:19, 14 February 2013 (UTC)

::::It's the crystalline life-form from the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode "Home Soil". When not killing red shirts, it keeps taunting humans that they're "ugly bags of mostly water".[[User:Columbus Admission|Columbus Admission]] ([[User talk:Columbus Admission|talk]]) 00:28, 14 February 2013 (UTC)

I think the "artificial boundary" isn't so artificial. There is a clear difference between food chemicals, which are healthy for us, vs steroid chemicals, which cause all sorts of health problems. Of course, then Megan would have to explain that we have limited lifespans and we greatly value our quality of life, and these steroids would decrease our quality of life. [[Special:Contributions/70.31.159.230|70.31.159.230]] 13:41, 13 February 2013 (UTC)
:So on the one side of this "clear boundary" you'd have something like Big Macs (food, good for us) and on the other you'd have vitamin supplements (non-food chemicals, bad)?
::I think the theory is that things that improve athletic performance but hurt the body should not be allowed. That way, athletes who are willing to sacrifice their health in order to win do not have an advantage over those who are not willing to make such a sacrifice. If people want to eat Big Mac's they are welcome to because it doesn't give them any advantage. Basically, you can put bad stuff into yourself all you want, but not if it gives you a competitive advantage. [[Special:Contributions/74.92.219.153|74.92.219.153]] 17:36, 14 February 2013 (UTC)
:::Which is good theory except that we have hardly any idea what are long-term effect of most chemicals, not speaking about fact that any chemical which is beneficial in reasonable amount (which we often don't know and it may depend on individual or other condition) is dangerous if you take it too much. The [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_C L-ascorbic acid] is particularly interresting example, as the official recomendation is 90mg per day, but depending on doctor and on situation (like illness or stress level) even 10,000mg may be considered healthy. Another good example is already mentioned [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Testosterone testosterone], which IS actually steroid. Oh yes, and then there is the problem of DETECTING that the athlets are getting those "unnatural" chemicals. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 09:46, 15 February 2013 (UTC)
:Like trying to line up all the people in the world and draw a clear line to divide blacks from whites, it's too much of a gradual spectrum to be anything other than arbitrary. [[Special:Contributions/67.51.59.66|67.51.59.66]] 17:27, 13 February 2013 (UTC)
::I explained my point very poorly. "Good" performance enhancing chemicals (like healthy foods) tend to also make us more healthy while "bad" performance enhancing chemicals (like steroids) cause all sorts of health problems. Athletes are generally encouraged to take the "good" stuff while avoiding the "bad" stuff. Of course there's a huge grey area in between (including non-performance-enhancing Big Macs), but I think steroids clearly fall outside this grey area. [[Special:Contributions/70.31.159.230|70.31.159.230]] 19:58, 13 February 2013 (UTC)
:::|Um, you do realize that the human body itself creates "Steroids"? Which are also in found within the plants and animals that we eat. (Especially soybeans.) Testosterone is supposedly one of these "bad" steroids, which cause many problems for humans. [[Special:Contributions/69.181.140.191|69.181.140.191]] 12:28, 14 February 2013 (UTC)
::::I suppose my point requires further explanation; devil's advocates will never be satisfied. Testosterone isn't intrinsically "bad" for us (as you mentioned, it is an integral part of our chemistry), but taking significant amounts of it from external sources has been shown to damage our bodies' ability to produce it and/or regulate its levels, among other effects. Hence, taking steroids is bad for us. Compare that with healthy food, which is generally accepted to "increase" our athletic performance (compared with unhealthy food, or no food) without any serious avoidable side effects.
::::However, you do bring up the point of testosterone being present in some things we consider to count as "food". I guess there is a certain amount of testosterone you are allowed to ingest (for these contests) that cause a negligible effect. [[Special:Contributions/70.31.159.230|70.31.159.230]] 13:21, 14 February 2013 (UTC)
:::::So it should be permitted to take non-dangerous levels of steroids? Either way, blood doping is the practice of boosting the number of red blood cells in the bloodstream, seems like a difficult argument to make for that to be bad (unless you have too many, but until that point). [[Special:Contributions/67.87.171.116|67.87.171.116]] 07:11, 15 February 2013 (UTC)
Blood doping is not the same as steroid use. {{unsigned|‎98.204.81.157}}
== Douglas Adams ==

Does anyone else feel that the title text has a strong Douglas Adams flavour?
And if so, can we make that hard with a quote from one of his books?

:It's a biblical reference, Genesis 3:19, "In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground; for out of it wast thou taken: for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return", King James version.[[User:Jasqm|Jasqm]] ([[User talk:Jasqm|talk]]) 14:03, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

:D.N.A. has been known to reference the bible:
:-"In the beginning, the universe was created. This made a lot of people unhappy and has been widely regarded as a bad move."
:-"And then one day, nearly two thousand years after one man was nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be if people were nice to each other for a change..."
:[[User:Smperron|Smperron]] ([[User talk:Smperron|talk]]) 17:08, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

:You're probably thinking of his quotes that reference digital watches and what a big mistake it was to leave the oceans (combined with the scene from the show where the guy walks back into the ocean).[[User:CityZen|CityZen]] ([[User talk:CityZen|talk]]) 21:30, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

Ive said that Douglas Adams write for XKCD for years now...Notice if you change all the letters to their corresponding number (A=1, B=2, etc) and add them, you get 42 ;) [[Special:Contributions/90.205.199.80|90.205.199.80]] 12:49, 13 February 2013 (UTC)
:Yeah, I'm pretty sure we all know that was a coincidence; Randall said so.
:I wrote a quick program to check for four-letter combinations and add their value. I'm assuming (hoping) that I coded correctly and got accurate results (I was using a library that I am unfamiliar with). Of the 26^4 possible letter combinations, 8840 (roughly 2%) will result in a total of 42 (order matters). This comes to 449 different sets of letters (in whatever order) that total 42. The numbers change if we assume Randall would only choose a letter once to be in the title. I'd rewrite the program to count up all combinations that total 4 to 104 for comparison (with and without repetition), but it's after 5am now. [[Special:Contributions/76.122.5.96|76.122.5.96]] 10:25, 15 February 2013 (UTC)

Not just a Biblical reference, the comic is published on (western christian) Ash Wednesday... [[User:Patmiller|Patmiller]] ([[User talk:Patmiller|talk]]) 14:58, 13 February 2013 (UTC)

I didn't think of Douglas Adams when I read it, I thought of Paul Erdos' definition of a mathematician as a device for turning coffee into theorems. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 15:16, 15 February 2013 (UTC)

Talk:1173: Steroids

2013-02-15T15:16:14Z

MGK: /* Douglas Adams */

Talk:1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians

2012-11-09T19:44:46Z

MGK: not about election models per se, bigger issue

Note: taking that bet would be a mistake. If the Bayesian is right, you're out $50. If he's wrong, everyone is about to die and you'll never get to spend the winnings. Of course, this meta-analysis is itself a type of Bayesian thinking, so [http://lmgtfy.com/?q=dunning-kruger+effect Dunning-Kruger Effect] would apply. - [[User:Frankie|Frankie]] ([[User talk:Frankie|talk]]) 13:50, 9 November 2012 (UTC)
: You don't think you could spend fifty bucks in eight minutes? ;-) (PS: wikipedia is probably a better link than lmgtfy: {{w|Dunning-Kruger effect}}) -- [[User:IronyChef|IronyChef]] ([[User talk:IronyChef|talk]]) 15:35, 9 November 2012 (UTC)
Randall has referenced the Labyrinth guards before: [http://xkcd.com/246/ xkcd 246:Labyrinth puzzle]. Plus he has satirized p<0.05 in [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=882:_Significant xkcd 882:Significant]--[[User:Prooffreader|Prooffreader]] ([[User talk:Prooffreader|talk]]) 15:59, 9 November 2012 (UTC)

A bit of maths. Let event N be the sun going nova and event Y be the detector giving the answer "Yes". The detector has already given a positive answer so we want to compute P(N|Y). Applying the Bayes' theorem:
: P(N|Y) = P(Y|N) * P(N) / P(Y)
: P(Y|N) = 1
: P(N) = 0.0000....
: P(Y|N) * P(N) = 0.0000...
: P(Y) = p(Y|N)*P(N) + P(Y|-N)*P(-N)
: P(Y|-N) = 1/36
: P(-N) = 0.999999...
: P(Y) = 0 + 1/36 = 1/36
: P(N|Y) = 0 / (1/36) = 0
Quite likely it's not entirely correct. [[User:Lmpk|Lmpk]] ([[User talk:Lmpk|talk]]) 16:22, 9 November 2012 (UTC)

Here's what I get for the application of Bayes' Theorem:
: P(N|Y) = P(Y|N) * P(N) / P(Y)
: = P(Y|N) * P(N) / [P(Y|N) * P(N) + P(Y|~N) * P(~N)]
: = 35/36 * P(N) / [35/36 * P(N) + 1/36 * (1 - P(N))]
: = 35 * P(N) / [35 * P(N) - P(N) + 1]
: < 35 * P(N)
: = 35 * (really small number)

So, if you believe it's extremely unlikely for the sun to go nova, then you should also believe it's unlikely a Yes answer is true.

I wouldn't say the comic is about election prediction models. It's about a long-standing dispute between two different schools of statisticians, a dispute that began before Nate Silver was born. It's possible that the recent media attention for Silver and his ilk inspired this subject, but it's the kind of geeky issue Randall would typically take on in other circumstances too. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 19:44, 9 November 2012 (UTC)

Talk:1124: Law of Drama

2012-10-22T20:47:28Z

MGK:

Regarding the transcript: I don't think you have enough data to characterize this short curve as exponential. What does "slightly exponential" mean, anyway? In any case, it looks like it becomes linear as the x values increase. --[[User:Prooffreader|Prooffreader]] ([[User talk:Prooffreader|talk]]) 11:21, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

::It could be a shallow power function curve . . .--[[User:Joehammer79|Joehammer79]] ([[User talk:Joehammer79|talk]]) 13:57, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

::Increasing, concave up. That's really the way to describe it. "Exponential" is a word used too widely by people who don't understand what it means. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 20:47, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

:I took 26 data points, assumed the axes defined a (0-1,0-1) window, and tried an extrapolation (using Microsoft Excel; someone with a different tool can surely do better). An exponential model fits fairly well: y = 0.0782 * e^(2.7035*x) with R^2 = 0.9928. However, I agree about the linear end section -- the exponential trendline clearly starts to pull high. --BigMal27 // [[Special:Contributions/192.136.15.149|192.136.15.149]] 13:57, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

I think Randall thought about the shape of this curve. You see how it becomes linear as both drama and anti-drama declaration increase? At low values, there is a residual amount of drama even when there is little anti-drama declaration, but the marginal increase eventually becomes constant. --[[User:Prooffreader|Prooffreader]] ([[User talk:Prooffreader|talk]]) 11:28, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

:I think that may be it. Care to add it to the page? [[User:Davidy22|Davidy22]] ([[User talk:Davidy22|talk]]) 11:31, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

:I think that the upper limit for drama statements does indeed have an end-point, beyond which those declarations can't increase. At that point, I suppose, the drama-ridden person experiences a split state-change, either dropping to the original non-drama state by disavowing all the causers-of-drama in their lives, or by becoming a causer-of-drama.--[[User:Noni Mausa|Noni Mausa]] ([[User talk:Noni Mausa|talk]]) 13:11, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

:: At this point in the discourse, I'm reminded of a real-scientist friend who admonished me once for reading too much into some data, and it seems applicable here, too. To wit: the axes are not labeled with units -- no tick marks to be seen anywhere -- nor is it clear what sort of axes are in use: log, {{w|logit}}, {{w|probit}}? Randall, not being the naïve sort, likely understands this, and merely shows us a graph that suggest a slightly accelerating direct relationship between the two axes. If the axes are linear, the curve has the characteristic upward swing of an exponential, but we don't ''know'' that, and any conjecture beyond observable facts is inappropriate. To leap to application of, say {{w|Levenberg-Marquardt}}, seems folly. (As an aside, I'm reminded of the old Benny Hill skit, where he's a movie director being interviewed on some talking-heads show; says the interviewer: "I particularly enjoyed the poignancy of suddenly switching to black and white film right as..." Benny Hill: "Rubbish, we just ran out of film, and black and white was all we had left.") -- [[User:IronyChef|IronyChef]] ([[User talk:IronyChef|talk]]) 14:23, 22 October 2012 (UTC)

Talk:1103: Nine

2012-09-03T17:24:13Z

MGK:

I really find that the hover-over text applies to me more often than not, unless I'm not in mixed company. This reminds me of a time that I was staying with a friend and she walked in on me changing the time on her microwave. When I explained to her that her microwave, stove, and coffee pot were all set to different times and it was bugging me, she just looked at me like I was crazy. --[[User:Grate314|"grate314"]] ([[User talk:Grate314|talk]]) 16:47, 3 September 2012 (UTC)
:I don't think that is what the title text meant. Also, anybody who reads an xkcd comic and remembers that they did that ''is'' crazy. --[[Special:Contributions/98.221.139.80|98.221.139.80]]
Did anybody try doing what the title text is saying? Just wondering. --[[Special:Contributions/98.221.139.80|98.221.139.80]]

When I'm not following written instructions, I tend to use multiples of 1:11, out of laziness. So, if I figure something should take about 2-3 minutes, I'll nuke it for 2:22. That way, I can press one button 3 times without having to move my finger. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 17:23, 3 September 2012 (UTC)

Talk:1103: Nine

2012-09-03T17:23:21Z

MGK:

I really find that the hover-over text applies to me more often than not, unless I'm not in mixed company. This reminds me of a time that I was staying with a friend and she walked in on me changing the time on her microwave. When I explained to her that her microwave, stove, and coffee pot were all set to different times and it was bugging me, she just looked at me like I was crazy. --[[User:Grate314|"grate314"]] ([[User talk:Grate314|talk]]) 16:47, 3 September 2012 (UTC)
:I don't think that is what the title text meant. Also, anybody who reads an xkcd comic and remembers that they did that ''is'' crazy. --[[Special:Contributions/98.221.139.80|98.221.139.80]]
Did anybody try doing what the title text is saying? Just wondering. --[[Special:Contributions/98.221.139.80|98.221.139.80]]
When I'm not following written instructions, I tend to use multiples of 1:11, out of laziness. So, if I figure something should take about 2-3 minutes, I'll nuke it for 2:22. That way, I can press one button 3 times without having to move my finger. [[User:MGK|MGK]] ([[User talk:MGK|talk]]) 17:23, 3 September 2012 (UTC)