explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2270: Picking Bad Stocks

2020-03-28T17:36:20Z

Marcus Rowland: Undo revision 189274 by Zooph (talk)

{{comic
| number = 2270
| date = February 19, 2020
| title = Picking Bad Stocks
| image = picking_bad_stocks.png
| titletext = On the news a few days later: "Buzz is building around the so-called 'camping Roomba' after a big investment. Preorders have spiked, and..."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CAMPING ROOMBA. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

[[Cueball]] and [[Ponytail]] are discussing the stock market. Ponytail explains that there has been no reliable way to consistently pick stocks that outperform the market average. She also states that there could be a corollary to that; there is no way to consistently pick bad stocks (presumably for this discussion, ''bad stocks'' refers to stocks whose value is expected to go down). Cueball states that he could consistently pick bad stocks, and the last panel shows him at a trading terminal purportedly buying bad stocks, while [[White Hat]] and [[Megan]] use his bad stock picks as indications that those stocks should be removed from whatever stock index they manage.

Generally, people invest in the stock market hoping to make money. They buy stock in companies whose value they expect will increase, and sell stock when they feel its value is about to stop increasing or start decreasing. Someone who could tell whether a stock's price will rise or fall (more than the average stock) in a given time interval could make a lot of money, but this is an infamously difficult problem. Market prices already reflect the consensus estimate of what a stock should be worth based on all public information about the company. Some investors use {{w|fundamental analysis}}, that is, they attempt to understand companies based on their financial statements and market position to identify which stocks are likely to become more or less valuable over time, while others use {{w|technical analysis}} which seeks to identify patterns in the stock prices themselves. Technical analysis was featured in [[2101: Technical Analysis|comic 2101]]. However, while the rise and fall of stock prices are sometimes connected to real events (strong or weak profit statements, new product announcements, major scandals) that one person might predict better than another, they more often exhibit random-walk behavior. Many studies, such as the long-running "[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=670404 Investment Dartboard Contest]" run by ''{{w|The Wall Street Journal}}'', have found that an index of stocks that represent the total market, or even a set of randomly-selected stocks (often colloquially stated as "picked by a monkey") beats paying an expert to choose your portfolio.

Realistically, in investing, someone who purposely trades in ''bad stocks'' is called a '''short seller''', and someone who could consistently pick ''bad stock'' could make a lot of money in the stock market. Short selling consists of selling a stock before you own it, with the anticipation that the stock's price will drop soon, and you can later purchase the stock to fulfill the sale. The difference between the selling price and the purchase price is your profit, just as with any normal ("long") purchase and sale. However, in US stock markets, it is illegal to sell stocks that you don't own, so when you short a stock, you need to borrow that stock from a third party (possibly the trading firm you're working with, or some other firm that the trading firm has a stock loan relationship with, that currently holds a position in the stock you're shorting) to cover the sale. This is all done automatically by the trading platform you use. Between the time you sell the stock until the time you repurchase the stock on the open market, you will have what's called a '''short position''' on the stock, and you need to pay interest to the company that lent you that stock. Because of the interest payments, short sales are almost always short-term positions, as the interest paid on the loan can quickly exceed any profit you might make on the sale. {{w|Gary Shilling|A. Gary Shilling}}, a financial analyst, famously remarked that "[https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/ markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.]" Ponytail attempted to explain short selling to Cueball in [[2094: Short Selling]] (perhaps that comic and this one are part of the same conversation), although Cueball found Ponytail's advice much less helpful than he has found this comic's conversation. However, in this case, Ponytail is not describing short selling but instead, investing in every stock except for the bad ones

Cueball's statement about wanting revenge on a ghost may be a reference to [[2259: Networking Problems]], in which Cueball was driven insane trying to debug network problems and came to believe in ghosts. Perhaps the CEO of company #208 has had a similar experience with a network.

If Cueball's statement that a company is developing a "camping {{w|Roomba}}" is correctly attributing the trademark (as opposed to genericizing it to refer to any small cleaning robot), then presumably company #1434 is {{w|iRobot}}. While a Roomba for camping may sound like a ridiculous concept that is not likely to make much money, developing a robot that can navigate and move around natural environments would be a major advancement leading to new opportunities for both their civilian and military product lines. A campground offers a more challenging environment than indoors, while being slightly more controlled than a truly wild area, making for a good development step. Dropping iRobot from this company's index is probably not a move that would be suggested by a stock broker who is earnestly trying to make money, but maybe Cueball's "market anti-sense" knows something we don't.

In the title-text, it seems that perhaps Cueball's investment advice was actually taken seriously (perhaps his trading terminal was accidentally connected to the market, or the video feed was view-able by other investors), which caused consumers to take the camping Roomba more seriously and make it (and iRobot) more successful than if Cueball had done nothing. Or maybe he's worse at picking bad stocks than he thinks he is; a legitimate investor could have seen what Cueball saw and taken it as a good sign.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

[Cueball and Ponytail are walking together.]
:Cueball: I feel like by now I should know about the stock market.
:Cueball: What ''is'' investing? Do you just open a website and pick the companies you like?

[Ponytail holds out her hand palm-up.]
:Ponytail: Well, you totally can.
:Ponytail: But there's a lot of evidence that no investing strategy consistently picks stocks that outperform the average of the whole market. A lot of fund management is a myth.

[Close-up on Ponytail, who has turned to Cueball.]
:Cueball: Huh, okay.
:Ponytail: But there's a weird corollary to that idea: it implies that, ignoring fees and stuff, it's just as hard to consistently ''lose'' money by picking ''bad'' stocks from an index.

[Cueball and Ponytail are both back in frame. They are standing still and facing each other.]
:Ponytail: If someone could consistently buy bad stocks, you could beat the average by hiring them, letting them pretend to invest, then buying every stock ''except'' the ones they pick.
:Ponytail: In a way, bad judgement is just as helpful as good judgement.

[Cueball raising his hands.]
:Cueball: Oh my God.
:Cueball: I can do that!
:Ponytail: No, it's just an example--
:Cueball: This is the job I was born for.

[Cueball is either sitting in a box or being viewed on a camera screen. He is sitting in front of a computer console, and a camera is pointed at him. Megan and White Hat are viewing him, and White Hat is holding a tablet.]
:[Text box: Soon...]
:Cueball: Hey, this company's CEO wants revenge on the same ghost as me! I'm buying!
:Cueball: Ooh, and this one is planning to develop a "Camping Roomba." That's a sure bet!
:Megan: Drop companies #208 and #1434 from the index.
:White Hat: Done.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Comics featuring White Hat]]
[[Category:Roomba]]
[[Category:Stock Market]]

Talk:2270: Picking Bad Stocks

2020-02-27T00:00:49Z

Marcus Rowland: unethical investments

clearly nobody told Randall about shorting stocks [[Special:Contributions/162.158.18.160|162.158.18.160]] 20:57, 19 February 2020 (UTC)

I was going to say that [[User:Arachrah|Arachrah]] ([[User talk:Arachrah|talk]]) 09:29, 20 February 2020 (UTC)

Can someone create a "stock market" category, or "economics"? There are a lot of comics referencing this. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.89|172.69.33.89]] 23:21, 19 February 2020 (UTC)
:You can start by listing these comics here, someone will pick them up to create the category.[[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.166|141.101.98.166]] 10:35, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
::Yep. General inofficial rule of thumb is, that a new category should have at least 5 comics or consist of a direct series. (the latter doesn't seem to be tha case here.)--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:41, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
:::Stock market related comics:
:::* [[1570: Engineer Syllogism]]
:::* [[1600: MarketWatch]]
:::* [[2094: Short Selling]]
:::* [[2101: Technical Analysis]]
:::* [[2270: Picking Bad Stocks]]
:::Please add {{unsigned|141.101.104.161}}
::::You mean that there is so few people knowing how to create category that they agreed on some rule? And why didn't they told me? -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 23:27, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
:::::As I said it is an inofficial {{w|rule of thumb}}... discussed e.g. [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/User_talk:Kynde#Category_book_promotion on Kyndes talk page] --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:58, 21 February 2020 (UTC)

When he said "camping" I thought more of snipers in MMFPS games (or gate-campers in Eve) and I was imagining the robot waiting patiently hidden under the sofa until someone dropped a crumb, zipping out and hoovering that crumb up then zipping off back again. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.148|141.101.98.148]] 11:30, 20 February 2020 (UTC)

Shouldn't they be dropping the companies from a basket rather than an index ? From my understanding, indices refer to "official" lists of stocks, and custom ones are more known as baskets. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.28|108.162.229.28]] 12:46, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
:I suspect Cueball is more influential than expected [[Special:Contributions/108.162.241.202|108.162.241.202]] 14:02, 20 February 2020 (UTC)

In BBC Radio 4's Dickensian-comedy-spoof series {{w|Bleak Expectations}} (from memory, during the [https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00cwgs6/episodes/guide second series/season] - though not available at the time of writing, at least direct from the BBC) at one key point Pip Bin uses his best friend's investment 'recommendations' (Harry Biscuit is also a notoriously bad inventor obsessed with using swans in many of his own Heath Robinson/Rube Goldberg devices) to invest in entirely the opposite manner. Not that I think Randall has heard these programmes (or, indeed, programs), so not an annotatable reference for the comic, but putting it out there as a recommendation in general because there's a good chance of humour(/humor) overlap. And it has Anthony Head in it, if there are any Buffy fans/etc, reading this... [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.148|141.101.98.148]] 15:28, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
:Not exactly the same idea, but... in one of Iain Banks novels (Complicity, I think) there's a character who is seriously thinking of setting up as an ''unethical'' investment counsellor, deliberately picking investments that are unethical in one way or another (polluters, products that are damaging in some way, etc.) on the grounds that that's where the money is; ethical investments tend not to make huge profits.--[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 00:00, 27 February 2020 (UTC)

Maybe Cueball is a 21st-Century [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Dexter Timothy Dexter]? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.68.93|172.69.68.93]] 16:03, 20 February 2020 (UTC)

In the last line of the current explanation, it supposes Cueball is connected to and making changes to the portfolio. I read this more as an ironic counterpoint, indicating that even though he's good at picking bad stocks, he is not infallible. [[User:OhFFS|OhFFS]] ([[User talk:OhFFS|talk]]) 17:18, 20 February 2020 (UTC)

The ads displayed for me on this page suggest investing in Irish Whiskey. Given the context here, would it be better to buy or short now? [[User:Bischoff|Bischoff]] ([[User talk:Bischoff|talk]]) 17:40, 20 February 2020 (UTC)
:I'd give a strict buy recommondation. If you loose money on it, you can at least get drunk. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 07:50, 26 February 2020 (UTC)

Anyone else find the "This is the job I was born for" statement and situation strikingly similar to #408: Overqualified? [[Special:Contributions/108.162.246.53|108.162.246.53]] 22:00, 21 February 2020 (UTC)

Talk:2236: Is it Christmas?

2019-12-03T15:33:43Z

Marcus Rowland:

according Wayback Machine, the site [https://web.archive.org/web/20181225014549/https://isitchristmas.com/ still] [https://web.archive.org/web/20171225032723/https://isitchristmas.com/ says] [https://web.archive.org/web/20161209052757/https://isitchristmas.com/ NO] [https://web.archive.org/web/20151225060146/https://isitchristmas.com/ even] on Christmas. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 21:56, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:Hmmm, maybe it will be fixed this year. I imagine everybody spammed the guy on twitter when it didnt work last year. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.132.155|172.68.132.155]] 22:06, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:; It checks your system time
:It uses the <code>new Date()</code> constructor to check whether it is Christmas, which uses your system time. Thus, the Wayback won't get anything, but changing your system time will. Kay? [[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 22:14, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

Okay so looking at isitchristmas.com, there's a comment at the top of the page saying to look at the console, but I don't see anything in there, anyone know what that might be about? Also at the bottom of the html file, the bottommost <script> tag looks like it might contain code for a chat client? I don't know JS so I'm unsure, but I tried changing all the related "false" values to "true" that looked relevant and nothing happened, so idk. Maybe someone else can figure it out. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.132.155|172.68.132.155]] 22:03, 2 December 2019 (UTC)
:(I'm the dev.) Check back again closer to Christmas, on 12/23 or 12/24. [[User:Konklone|Konklone]] ([[User talk:Konklone|talk]]) 00:55, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::I mean, I kind of find that suspect. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.47.234|172.68.47.234]] 01:39, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:::seconded. that's a suspicious lot of javascript just to display yes or no, even with globalisation. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.144|141.101.107.144]] 10:07, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Well, one way to put it is that the overall probability of a false negative is 0.27%, which doesn't seem too bad, but the conditional probability of a false negative given that it's Christmas is 100%, which is horrid. --[[User:IByte|IByte]] ([[User talk:IByte|talk]]) 22:37, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

Of course it depends on your definition of "It's Christmas". The figure is right if you just mean Christmas Day and ignore the Julian vs Gregorian issue, but not you subscribe to "the 12 days of Christmas" = Christmas ... Just saying ;-) [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 23:53, 2 December 2019 (UTC)
:Every year, people ask me about including multiple definitions of Christmas, but I think for my own sanity it's going to keep looking just at 12/25. ;) [[User:Konklone|Konklone]] ([[User talk:Konklone|talk]]) 00:57, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::There's an assumption here that people will only want to celebrate Christmas once a year. Might be different for someone living in a community with multiple religions who likes the holiday, or wants an excuse to take an additional day off work! --[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 11:08, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:::But that would not be Christmas. Christmas is the day the Bible states Jesus was born (or at least if it is in the bible at all, the day Christians choose to claim Jesus was born). Thus only one day can be Christmas and no matter how you choose to celebrate and when or how many days, still only the 25th of December will be Christmas! --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:41, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::::I'm Catholic, Christmas day is one day a year, but Christmas (the liturgical season) ends on The Baptism of the Lord, which varies but can be as late as January 13th. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.63.91|172.69.63.91]] 15:19, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::::There are at least two Christmas days, as noted previously - the Western one on 25th December, and the Eastern Orthodox version which is based on an older calendar and is now in January according to the Western calendar, because their calendar has slipped compared to ours. But if someone wants to celebrate both there is really no reason why not - they don't have to be followers of the religion to want to take a holiday. Or if you want another reason, in communities with followers of both versions of Christianity, there will be days when the followers of one or another version are celebrating Christmas and businesses etc. are closed, which will affect everyone regardless of which religion they follow, if any. --[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 15:33, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
How do we know Randall's version is wrong on Christmas? Has anyone set their system clock to Dec 25 and checked it? [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 02:14, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:Have tested; Randall's displayed "no" as per main image. isitchritmas displayed "yes" as per explanation. [[User:RedHillian|RedHillian]] ([[User talk:RedHillian|talk]]) 02:44, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::It may be Randall uses Server-Time, and not client-time like isitchristmas.com - Also, in the official Calendars, there are two Christmas days, first and second day of Christmas. I think Randall went only for the gifting day, which is different in many countries anyway. My kids get there presents on Christmas eve (24 December), their friends mostly on 6 December (Sint Nicolas) (or the evening before). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.62|141.101.77.62]] 07:45, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:: Based on his 99.73% accuracy comment, I assume the comic is a static image, and will always show "NO", even on Christmas day. I think that is the whole joke, that his comic is correct 364 (+ leap days) of the year, when it is not Christmas. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.158|172.69.34.158]] 08:23, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:::Of course this is a static image, that is the whole point. ;-) In Demark we also have the [https://erdetfredag.dk/ is it Friday] which at least is easier to check if it works, as it changes from No (Nej) to Yes (Ja) once a week. As mentioned above in Denmark the isitchristmas answers in Danish with a Nej. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 08:34, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

About "when is christmas". Christmas consists of two days, which makes the calculation of predicted correctness too optimistic. (99,45% for 363/365 and for 364/366; 99,38% for 363/365.25)[[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.62|141.101.77.62]] 07:45, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:No only the 25th of December is called Christmas Day. All other days are thus not Christmas, but just days you choose to celebrate that the 25th is Christmas! --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:41, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

"In the western world celebrated on 25th" is not correct. For UK,US and Canada and probably a lot others it might be true, german and I think spanish speaking countries not.
:No no. Even when you celebrate Christmas Eve on December 24th (as also in Denmark) we call the 25th Christmas Day. Even if you also celebrate the 2nd Christmas day, there is only one day a year that it is Christmas, and that is the 25th of December. That is when Christians claim Jesus was born. Of course I celebrate the Winter solstice (and accept that I do this a few days off, since that is when I can have the day off.) In Denmark we count the days up till the 24th and celebrate in the evening, (as the Vikings always did, because the new day began the sun set.) We do not look at the 12 days after. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 08:34, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::The word "celebrated" or "to celebrate", means (according to [https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/celebrate Lexico/Oxford]): "Acknowledge (a significant or happy day or event) with a social gathering or enjoyable activity." This activity is not set as a single day for the western world. E.g. in Germany it is acknowledget with social gatherings and enjoyable activities for at least 3 days: Christmas eve (24th), First Christmas day (25th) and second christmas day (26th December). Additionally not all the western world (is that even properly defined?) does acknowledge the birth of christ (significant/happy event) by social gatherings or enjoyable activities (e.g. you, as you stated yourself.)--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 09:59, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:::The word celebrate is not present in the comic. That is about the question if today is Christmas. When you choose to celebrate Christmas has nothing to do with what day is Christmas, and also other religious holidays has nothing to do with Christmas at all. Do not mix up different issues here. This comic is only wrong on 25th of December which is Christmas day. All other days you choose to celebrate Christmas is not Christmas Day! And thus it is not Christmas! --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:41, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::::So you also agree, that the statement in the explanation is wrong? I will change it.--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 12:47, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:The XKCD page has the additional advantage of being equally accurate whether you follow [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregorian_calendar Western] or [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Orthodox_liturgical_calendar Eastern Orthodox] calendars, or whatever calendar you choose! --[[User:Quantum7|Quantum7]] ([[User talk:Quantum7|talk]]) 08:39, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Reminds me of [[937: TornadoGuard]] in subject matter.--[[User:Henke37|Henke37]] ([[User talk:Henke37|talk]]) 09:47, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:I was mostly reminded of [[1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians]]. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:06, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Is the comic closely enough related to be put into [[:Category:Statistics]]?--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 13:21, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Some other sites with the same idea: http://ismycomputeron.com https://shouldiblamecaching.com http://iscaliforniaonfire.com http://www.ismycomputeronfire.com/ [[User:Ahiijny|Ahiijny]] ([[User talk:Ahiijny|talk]]) 14:47, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Also this flowchart: [[1723: Meteorite Identification]] - I am currently to absent-minded to get a proper wording for the relation right. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 14:57, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Talk:2236: Is it Christmas?

2019-12-03T11:08:16Z

Marcus Rowland: only once a year?

according Wayback Machine, the site [https://web.archive.org/web/20181225014549/https://isitchristmas.com/ still] [https://web.archive.org/web/20171225032723/https://isitchristmas.com/ says] [https://web.archive.org/web/20161209052757/https://isitchristmas.com/ NO] [https://web.archive.org/web/20151225060146/https://isitchristmas.com/ even] on Christmas. --[[User:Valepert|valepert]] ([[User talk:Valepert|talk]]) 21:56, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:Hmmm, maybe it will be fixed this year. I imagine everybody spammed the guy on twitter when it didnt work last year. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.132.155|172.68.132.155]] 22:06, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:; It checks your system time
:It uses the <code>new Date()</code> constructor to check whether it is Christmas, which uses your system time. Thus, the Wayback won't get anything, but changing your system time will. Kay? [[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 22:14, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

Okay so looking at isitchristmas.com, there's a comment at the top of the page saying to look at the console, but I don't see anything in there, anyone know what that might be about? Also at the bottom of the html file, the bottommost <script> tag looks like it might contain code for a chat client? I don't know JS so I'm unsure, but I tried changing all the related "false" values to "true" that looked relevant and nothing happened, so idk. Maybe someone else can figure it out. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.132.155|172.68.132.155]] 22:03, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:(I'm the dev.) Check back again closer to Christmas, on 12/23 or 12/24. [[User:Konklone|Konklone]] ([[User talk:Konklone|talk]]) 00:55, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

::I mean, I kind of find that suspect. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.47.234|172.68.47.234]] 01:39, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

:::seconded. that's a suspicious lot of javascript just to display yes or no, even with globalisation. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.144|141.101.107.144]] 10:07, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Well, one way to put it is that the overall probability of a false negative is 0.27%, which doesn't seem too bad, but the conditional probability of a false negative given that it's Christmas is 100%, which is horrid. --[[User:IByte|IByte]] ([[User talk:IByte|talk]]) 22:37, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

Of course it depends on your definition of "It's Christmas". The figure is right if you just mean Christmas Day and ignore the Julian vs Gregorian issue, but not you subscribe to "the 12 days of Christmas" = Christmas ... Just saying ;-) [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 23:53, 2 December 2019 (UTC)

:Every year, people ask me about including multiple definitions of Christmas, but I think for my own sanity it's going to keep looking just at 12/25. ;) [[User:Konklone|Konklone]] ([[User talk:Konklone|talk]]) 00:57, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

::There's an assumption here that people will only want to celebrate Christmas once a year. Might be different for someone living in a community with multiple religions who likes the holiday, or wants an excuse to take an additional day off work! --[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 11:08, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

How do we know Randall's version is wrong on Christmas? Has anyone set their system clock to Dec 25 and checked it? [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 02:14, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:Have tested; Randall's displayed "no" as per main image. isitchritmas displayed "yes" as per explanation. [[User:RedHillian|RedHillian]] ([[User talk:RedHillian|talk]]) 02:44, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::It may be Randall uses Server-Time, and not client-time like isitchristmas.com - Also, in the official Calendars, there are two Christmas days, first and second day of Christmas. I think Randall went only for the gifting day, which is different in many countries anyway. My kids get there presents on Christmas eve (24 December), their friends mostly on 6 December (Sint Nicolas) (or the evening before). [[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.62|141.101.77.62]] 07:45, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:: Based on his 99.73% accuracy comment, I assume the comic is a static image, and will always show "NO", even on Christmas day. I think that is the whole joke, that his comic is correct 364 (+ leap days) of the year, when it is not Christmas. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.158|172.69.34.158]] 08:23, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:::Of course this is a static image, that is the whole point. ;-) In Demark we also have the [https://erdetfredag.dk/ is it Friday] which at least is easier to check if it works, as it changes from No (Nej) to Yes (Ja) once a week. As mentioned above in Denmark the isitchristmas answers in Danish with a Nej. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 08:34, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

About "when is christmas". Christmas consists of two days, which makes the calculation of predicted correctness too optimistic. (99,45% for 363/365 and for 364/366; 99,38% for 363/365.25)[[Special:Contributions/141.101.77.62|141.101.77.62]] 07:45, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

"In the western world celebrated on 25th" is not correct. For UK,US and Canada and probably a lot others it might be true, german and I think spanish speaking countries not.
:No no. Even when you celebrate Christmas Eve on December 24th (as also in Denmark) we call the 25th Christmas Day. Even if you also celebrate the 2nd Christmas day, there is only one day a year that it is Christmas, and that is the 25th of December. That is when Christians claim Jesus was born. Of course I celebrate the Winter solstice (and accept that I do this a few days off, since that is when I can have the day off.) In Denmark we count the days up till the 24th and celebrate in the evening, (as the Vikings always did, because the new day began the sun set.) We do not look at the 12 days after. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 08:34, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
::The word "celebrated" or "to celebrate", means (according to [https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/celebrate Lexico/Oxford]): "Acknowledge (a significant or happy day or event) with a social gathering or enjoyable activity." This activity is not set as a single day for the western world. E.g. in Germany it is acknowledget with social gatherings and enjoyable activities for at least 3 days: Christmas eve (24th), First Christmas day (25th) and second christmas day (26th December). Additionally not all the western world (is that even properly defined?) does acknowledge the birth of christ (significant/happy event) by social gatherings or enjoyable activities (e.g. you, as you stated yourself.)--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 09:59, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:The XKCD page has the additional advantage of being equally accurate whether you follow [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregorian_calendar Western] or [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Orthodox_liturgical_calendar Eastern Orthodox] calendars, or whatever calendar you choose! --[[User:Quantum7|Quantum7]] ([[User talk:Quantum7|talk]]) 08:39, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Reminds me of [[937: TornadoGuard]] in subject matter.--[[User:Henke37|Henke37]] ([[User talk:Henke37|talk]]) 09:47, 3 December 2019 (UTC)
:I was mostly reminded of [[1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians]]. --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:06, 3 December 2019 (UTC)

Talk:2198: Throw

2019-09-03T19:53:50Z

Marcus Rowland:

I created this page as it seem DgbrtBOT fails because it is interactive. So far it still won't shown on the front page or with a button to it from the previous comic or the "newest" comic button. Maybe it just takes some time? It is now in the [[List_of_all_comics]] but still no luck getting it to work... --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 07:58, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:Maybe it is because it was published on a tuesday? --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 08:16, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
::No it is not unusual that a comic does not come out on MWF. For instance the Sunday comic recently. Here is the list of Tuesday comics: [[:Category:Tuesday_comics]]--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 13:29, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:Also it doesn't display my comment below the explanation. Something is very broken here...--[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 08:25, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:It appears now. [[User:PkmnQ|PkmnQ]] ([[User talk:PkmnQ|talk]]) 08:53, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
How did he get an estimate for Carly Rae Jepson, anyway? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.255.34|162.158.255.34]] 09:52, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgwAywJlo1M [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.221|172.68.142.221]] 09:55, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
::Alternatively he could have worked together with her, as with Serena Williams. I will look it up in the afternoon, when I have my preordered book :) --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 10:22, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

By the transitive property of Worthiness, if Capt America can throw Thor's Hammer, surely George Washington is Worthy!{{unsigned ip|172.69.68.141}}

I got this data from the code:
{| class="wikitable"
! id
! name
! canThrow
! canBeThrown
! length
! diameter
! mass
! dragC
! throwPower
|-
| microwave
| A microwave oven
| false
| true
| 0.406
| 0.406
| 10.591
| 0.8
|
|-
| basketball
| a basketball
| false
| true
| 0.243
| 0.243
| 0.624
| 0.3
|
|-
| blender
| a blender
| false
| true
| 0.203
| 0.203
| 5.216
| 0.8
|
|-
| gold_bar
| a gold bar
| false
| true
| 0.0535
| 0.0535
| 12.4
| 0.8
|
|-
| cake
| a wedding cake
| false
| true
| 0.51
| 0.51
| 13
| 0.8
|
|-
| pingpong
| a ping pong ball
| false
| true
| 0.04
| 0.04
| 0.003
| 0.5
|
|-
| quarterback
| an NFL quarterback
| true
| false
| 1.905
| 0.584
| 102.058
| 0.6
| 20
|-
| acorn
| an acorn
| false
| true
| 0.0191
| 0.0191
| 0.0045
| 0.3
|
|-
| hammer
| thor's hammer
| false
| true
| 0.5
| 0.15
| 2000
| 0.4
|
|-
| javelin
| a javelin
| false
| true
| 1.8
| 0.0254
| 0.8
| 0.1
|
|-
| george
| George Washington
| true
| true
| 1.829
| 0.562
| 90.718
| 0.6
| 15
|-
| pikachu
| Pikachu
| true
| true
| 0.4
| 0.3
| 5.9874
| 0.4
| 10
|-
| car
| A car
| false
| true
| 4.5
| 2.134
| 1179.34
| 0.25
|
|-
| silver_spin
| a silver dollar (spinning)
| false
| true
| 0.04
| 0.011
| 0.027
| 0.5
|
|-
| silver_tumble
| a silver dollar (tumbling)
| false
| true
| 0.04
| 0.04
| 0.027
| 0.66
|
|-
| carly
| Carly Rae Jepsen
| true
| false
| 1.575
| 0.46
| 49.895
| 0.6
| 10
|-
| thor
| thor, god of thunder
| true
| false
| 1.91
| 0.59
| 91
| 0.6
| 10000
|-
| chris hemsworth
| chris hemsworth
| true
| false
| 1.91
| 0.59
| 91
| 0.6
| 10
|-
| squirrel
| A squirrel
| true
| true
| 0.203
| 0.096
| 0.454
| 0.6
| 10
|}
(Sorry if this table messes the talk page.)[[Special:Contributions/162.158.78.136|162.158.78.136]] 13:51, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:Nah its great. Not sure how to use it in the explanation yet, but guess it will go in there somehow later.--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:28, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

The comic looks different on my screen, not displaying multiple possible selections next to each other, but all below each other. Quite dynamic... --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 14:26, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:If I zoom out I can make it shown only one item each line, but if I zoom in two is maximum. But it should go in the explanation when we get there.--[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 14:28, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

The suggestion to litteraly throw a party in the air could be a reference to The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy in which there is a flying building with a party in it, and there's even Thor partying in it when the protagonists are coming there. --Roger 15:12, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

Any reason why George Washington has 50% more throw power than Christ Hemsworth? Some reference? ~TK

Interesting, there appears to be additional units of measurement in the source code that were not used in the comic: "wiffles" and "light-nanoseconds" [[Special:Contributions/108.162.241.52|108.162.241.52]] 16:52, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

Does it seem... excessive to anyone else that the NFL quarterback can throw a silver dollar almost two football fields?[[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.161|172.68.142.161]] 17:08, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

The explanation for Manhattan block conversion appears to be wrong. They mention that their calculation for how large one block is was made with 4 numbers ignoring George Washington as an outlier. However there are 6 total examples of Manhattan block to use and George Washington's is not an outlier. I calculated the mean with all of the data to be 79.9142 meters.--[[User:Szeth|Szeth]] ([[User talk:Szeth|talk]]) 17:12, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

We need a table with a brief description of each thrower. [[User:DKMell|DKMell]] ([[User talk:DKMell|talk]]) 17:14, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

How do we know how old George Washington was when he throws a squirrel? Speaking of age, this format kind of reminds me of the Magnus comic: https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1628:_Magnus [[Special:Contributions/108.162.241.52|108.162.241.52]] 17:41, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

I think we need to add something about the myth that George Washington threw a silver dollar across the Potomac River [[Special:Contributions/108.162.241.40|108.162.241.40]] 19:42, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

Pretty sure that the ping-pong ball distances are severely overestimated due to air resistance slowing them very rapidly. Someone with lab facilities might want to check... --[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 19:49, 3 September 2019 (UTC)
:Sorry, never mind, I think I saw a very early version of the actual page that had the distances much greater - seems reasonable now. --[[User:Marcus Rowland|Marcus Rowland]] ([[User talk:Marcus Rowland|talk]]) 19:53, 3 September 2019 (UTC)

Talk:2198: Throw

2019-09-03T19:49:20Z

Marcus Rowland: implausibility of ping-pong ball distances.

2109: Invisible Formatting

2019-02-11T03:34:29Z

Marcus Rowland: /* Explanation */ invisible formatting on web sites

{{comic
| number = 2109
| date = February 8, 2019
| title = Invisible Formatting
| image = invisible_formatting.png
| titletext = To avoid errors like this, we render all text and pipe it through OCR before processing, fixing a handful of irregular bugs by burying them beneath a smooth, uniform layer of bugs.
}}

==Explanation==
In some word processor programs, when highlighting text, whether by manually clicking and dragging or by double-clicking on a passage, it is easy to mistakenly highlight an unnecessary portion which has no visible effects when italicized or boldfaced. Since in most fonts the word space looks identical between the bold, the italicized, and the regular, this has no effect on how the end user will read the document, but could theoretically cause a problem on later occasions, particularly if the text cursor does not reflect formatting when hovering over formatted characters. [[Randall]] worries about this.

In the pictured case, he does not appear to have selected the word by double-clicking, since the cursor is depicted past the end of the word instead of on top of it. It appears instead that he has clicked and dragged the mouse cursor to select it, a method which also makes it easy to accidentally select a trailing space. The word space is a relatively thin character, which makes it hard to avoid and to notice, and most people don’t worry about whether they selected it. Therefore, selecting a trailing space is a common behavior, regardless of the method used.

If later the same word is highlighted to have the bold removed, but this time without including the space, the space would retain its bold formatting. Since it is an invisible character, there is no easy way to tell it is still bold—even if it is slightly longer in the bold font, this may be hard to notice. This is the situation the comic is highlighting—[[559: No Pun Intended|no pun intended]].

Occasions where a hidden bold space may be a problem include:
*Exporting to plain text files. If for example a {{w|markdown}} style is used, there will be characters in the output that do not make sense.
*Scraping, data mining, and linguistics processing by computer algorithms. Often (although not always) these algorithms are written based on samples of training or testing text that may not have spurious formatting present, and may misprocess something when encountering the spurious formatting.
*Wikis. In the first paragraph of this article, every space is a hidden bold space. From the editing view, all the spaces look <code><nowiki>like''' '''this</nowiki></code>. This will annoy all future editors of this article, due to the hidden apostrophes which are formatting the spaces. They may also accidentally introduce bold words.
**By default, MediaWiki attempts to prevent this by not including the trailing spaces in the bold formatting when you click the “bold” button, so someone has to manually type the formatting apostrophes to do this.
*Editing that adds some text at the location of the space will make this text bold.
*A situation where formatted text is not allowed, and is rejected, but the user failed to strip formatting from the spaces, and this is noticed.
*If a font has the word space look different between the bold and the regular, perhaps to make it so bold words are spaced closer to each other, the spacing will look inconsistent if there is a hidden bold space.
*Unnecessary extra formatting will usually unnecessarily increase file size, which may put the document above some maximum file size threshold.
*It can be later revealed that Randall considered to format parts of the text in bold. As the title text tells it is really important to Randall to control all information he publishes. Real-world examples are governments changing the impact of reports for political reasons. Attempted tampering of this kind can be revealed by bold spaces. Another example would be a casual and short one-sentence reply e.g. to a romantic interest, which one takes one hour to formulate to sound as natural as possible.

Randall’s background in {{w|computer programming}} could be what makes him more attentive to these types of technical problems, and therefore the reason for his worries.

Popular modern word processing programs have features which may make it easier to notice improperly formatted invisible characters. In the tutorials linked here, one may learn how to view invisible characters in [https://support.office.com/en-us/article/show-or-hide-formatting-marks-c2d8a607-5646-4165-8b08-bd68f9d172a0 Microsoft Word], [https://support.apple.com/kb/PH23650?locale=en_US&viewlocale=en_US Pages] and [https://help.libreoffice.org/Writer/Nonprinting_Characters LibreOffice Writer], however even with this on it would be difficult to spot a bolded space (which looks like a bolded dot – now visible but so small it's still hard to tell if it's bold or not). In the older word processor {{w|WordPerfect}}, one could do this with the “Reveal Codes” feature, which showed you character codes, separate from the characters themselves, around the characters. For example, a bolded space would look something like "[BOLD≻&ensp;≺BOLD]".

Web sites which allow content to be edited by users but generate the formatting code automatically often have versions of the invisible formatting problem; for example, eBay listings which use anything other than the default font rapidly accumulate hard spaces, font end and begin transitions, and other invisible formatting if they are subsequently edited, which can slow page loading and cause other problems. This is also seen in blogs etc.

In the title text, Randall says that he “fixes” this by running the text through {{w|Optical character recognition|OCR}}, which turns physical copies or images into text. This would usually ruin even more formatting, and add inaccuracies to the text. This way, no one can tell which bugs were introduced by him and which ones by the OCR, which he facetiously suggests is better somehow.

==Transcript==

:[A text editor, with some options. They are superscript in one section, bold, italic and underscore in another section and alignments in the third section. The word "not ", including the following space, is highlighted in blue. There is a cursor below it.]
:Text: ...ere, but would not have to mo...
:Action: Select

:[The cursor is on the "bold" option and the selected word is bolded.]
:Text: ...ere, but would '''not '''have to mo...
:Action: Click

:[The cursor is next to the "to". No text is highlighted.]
:Text: ...ere, but would '''not '''have to mo...
:Thought bubble: ...Nah, the bold is too much.

:[The word "not" is now highlighted in blue again, but the following space is not.]
:Text: ...ere, but would '''not '''have to mo...
:Action: Select

:[The cursor is on the "bold" option and the selected word is not bolded.]
:Text: ...ere, but would not''' '''have to mo...
:Action: Click

:[The cursor and the blue highlighting are gone. The space after "not" has a dashed box around it, and an arrow points to it.]
:Text: ...ere, but would not''' '''have to mo...
:Arrow: Hidden bold space

:[Caption below the panels:]
:When editing text, in the back of my mind I always worry that I'm adding invisible formatting that will somehow cause a problem in the distant future.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics with color]]