explain xkcd - User contributions [en]

2476: Base Rate

2021-06-16T04:44:27Z

Piratejabez: /* punctuation */

{{comic
| number = 2476
| date = June 14, 2021
| title = Base Rate
| image = base_rate.png
| titletext = Sure, you can talk about per-capita adjustment, but if you want to solve the problem, it's obvious that this is the group you need to focus on.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LEFTY. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
The "{{w|base rate}}" is a type of base probability, which a statistical probability can be based on. The {{w|base rate fallacy}} is a type of error in which people are presented with the rate at which something occurs throughout an entire population along with more specific information about a subset of that population, and tend to ignore the whole-population information in favor of the specific information. For instance, imagine a disease that is present in 1% of the population, for which there is a test with a 5% false-positive rate. This test might be presented as "95% accurate", and so people who receive a positive result from such a test are likely to think they have the disease. However, someone who receives a positive test result has only a 17% chance of actually having the disease; a much more likely reason for the positive result, occurring in 83% of all positive test results, is a false (wrong) positive.

In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so Cueball's claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is itself a base-rate error. Further, the pointer is held in Cueball's right hand, indicating that he too is right-handed as he makes the base-rate error.

Something similar occurs in [[1138: Heatmap]], where Cueball makes inferences simply based on a population map of the US, instead of statistical evidence.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:[Cueball standing in front of a screen, holding a pointer. The screen shows a bar graph with 2 bars, labeled "L" and "R". The "R" bar is significantly greater than "L".]
:Cueball: Remember, right-handed people commit 90% of all base rate errors.

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Bar charts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]

2476: Base Rate

2021-06-15T21:12:28Z

Piratejabez: /* Reading comprehension */

Talk:1477: Star Wars

2015-01-30T18:30:54Z

Piratejabez:

Hope the transcript matches normal presentation mores. And I thought I'd keep the title text explanation simple - so I haven't wasted much time if it gets utterly changed. [[User:Mattdevney|Mattdevney]] ([[User talk:Mattdevney|talk]]) 12:55, 23 January 2015 (UTC)

Does anyone else notice a weird white line through the dates? [[User:Djbrasier|Djbrasier]] ([[User talk:Djbrasier|talk]]) 14:39, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
:I came here to ask about that. [[User:Linea alba|Linea alba]] ([[User talk:Linea alba|talk]]) 16:13, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
::Haha, your username is linea alba. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.87|199.27.128.87]] 19:23, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
:Same here. I'm wondering if it's stylistic somehow (futuristic-looking?) or just a mistake.--[[User:Piratejabez|Piratejabez]] ([[User talk:Piratejabez|talk]]) 17:26, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
::It looks as if he tried to move the labels down, but didn't select the whole line: [http://imgur.com/a/EZSYT]. But it seems odd that he wouldn't notice it right away, since it cut ALL the digits in half. [[User:Linea alba|Linea alba]] ([[User talk:Linea alba|talk]]) 18:47, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
:::Thanks for sharing. Yes, that's very plausible. Strange that he wouldn't notice it, though...--[[User:Piratejabez|Piratejabez]] ([[User talk:Piratejabez|talk]]) 19:51, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
::Looks like he fixed it :) [http://www.xkcd.com/1477/ comic sans line]--[[User:Piratejabez|Piratejabez]] ([[User talk:Piratejabez|talk]]) 18:30, 30 January 2015 (UTC)

If anyone's interested, I just used http://timeanddate.com to calculate the Star Wars Trilogy Tipping Point, i.e.- the date starting on which ''The Phantom Menace'' will have released closer to ''A New Hope'' than to the present day: May 13, 2021. --[[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.140|173.245.50.140]] 18:23, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
::Thanks! I was wondering. That is a bit more hopeful.--[[User:Piratejabez|Piratejabez]] ([[User talk:Piratejabez|talk]]) 19:51, 23 January 2015 (UTC)

Be sure to get "Comics to make one feel old" in those categories. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.138|199.27.128.138]] 19:31, 23 January 2015 (UTC)

Shouldn't the alt text say "A *long* time ago (...) in a galaxy far, far..."?
[[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.157|108.162.238.157]] 00:46, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Damn, so close to May 4th, i wonder if there is anyway to prove that this can technically be the right day ("May the fourth be with you") [[User:Jack1197|Jack1197]] ([[User talk:Jack1197|talk]]) 05:08, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Is anyone else here getting tired of these 'this event is closer to another event than to today' things? :/ [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.25|141.101.99.25]] 10:06, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

:Not yet for me. We are further away from the new millennium than the new millennium seemed like in 1984. Ooooh! c. June 1, 2000 is the Nintendo NES/now midpoint. Ooooh! Most of the 80s is now over 30 years old. Ooooh! The women that were barely 18 in all of it are now post-menopausal! Ooooh! Early 80s sorority girls could now have great-grandchildren old enough to like giiiirls! [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.94|108.162.215.94]] 17:58, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

::Wait, what? No. Grandchildren, maybe, but not great-grandchildren. The oldest person meeting the description "early 80's sorority girl" would be someone who was 18 in 1980. Their child, assuming they had one right away, would be 18 in 1998. If that child had a child (the sorority girl's grandchild) immediately upon turning 18, that grandchild would be 18 in 2016. In this model, 2016 is the earliest year in which the great-grandchild could be born. Assuming that by "like girls" you mean "hit puberty," and since the average onset of puberty is close to 12 years, the soonest the sorority girl's great-grandchild could "like girls" would be 2028, thirteen years from now. Even if we allow for the possibility of teen pregnancies, and we assume that each generation gave birth to the next at age 15 (...shudder...) instead of age 18, we're still looking at a date in 2022. And, even if the original sorority girl gave birth at age 15 (three years prior to becoming an "early 80's sorority girl"), it would still be 2019 before her great-grandchildren would enter puberty. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.50.71|173.245.50.71]] 20:53, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
:::At least here, you register for kindergarten ("Grade 0") in year of birth plus 5. Thus people usually get their Bachelor's in year of birth plus 22. A girl born 1956.0 gives birth 1972.3 but luckily a family member adopts her and she graduates May 1980 because she's a slow slut. Grandchild is born 1988.7, Great-grandson born 2005.0 Original research, but is not unrealistic for that boy to like girls when I wrote that. Just a month after turning 10 a classmate who could pass for 11 went up to me and was like "what are you doing?" while I was lying on the floor. She thought it was funny. (I was the class clown). I saw past her dress until her inner upper, upper, upper, upper thigh and was kind of turned on (months before the sex ed class so I wasn't "groomed" by the teacher's curriculum or otherwise know what to expect). It was so good that I tried real hard to keep a poker face and not let her know what I'm looking at or otherwise spook her away and was feeling like "awww!" when I decided I had to stand up cause a few seconds is pushing it (imagine how embarrassed I would've been if she realized what a naughty thing I was doing!). Maybe this is why I always had a fetish for thicker (not fat) peer+older girls with thick legs in a dress. And that skin color. (And dominantish women. And cunnilingus.) So yes, 10 year olds like girls. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.238.162|108.162.238.162]] 21:27, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

More correctly the Hubble Parameter, since the Hubble Parameter has been shown NOT to be a constant.[[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.192|108.162.216.192]] 02:28, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Talk:1477: Star Wars

2015-01-23T19:51:27Z

Piratejabez:

Talk:1477: Star Wars

2015-01-23T17:27:29Z

Piratejabez:

Talk:1477: Star Wars

2015-01-23T17:27:06Z

Piratejabez:

Talk:1477: Star Wars

2015-01-23T17:26:41Z

Piratejabez: