https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=1993%3A_Fatal_Crash_Rate 2026-04-17T03:48:48Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.30.0 https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=375464&oldid=prev 2025-04-28T14:43:53Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Explanation</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr style="vertical-align: top;" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 14:43, 28 April 2025</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l11" >Line 11:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 11:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This is the second recent comic after [[1990: Driving Cars]] on the subject of the dangers of cars.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>This is the second recent comic after [[1990: Driving Cars]] on the subject of the dangers of cars.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It combines general statistical correlations between age and safety improvements with fatal crashes. The graphs are:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>It combines general statistical correlations between age and safety improvements with fatal crashes. The graphs are:</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* '''</del>Fatal car crash probability based on age<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:'''&#160; Young drivers are generally considered more reckless, which leads to more accidents ([[Randall]] is shown to have started this stage in the year 2000). Actuaries noted a spike in the death rates for teenage boys even before cars were invented. As drivers become comfortable with driving, internalizing the {{w|Traffic#rules of the road|rules of the road}}, their accident probability quickly drops, but this decrease becomes less pronounced when the driver needs to adapt to new traffic patterns due to moving or changing schedules (2010). After driving for 20 years, accident probability reaches a minimum, but is shown to rise slightly in 2040, probably because Randall fears a {{w|midlife crisis}}. By 2050, aging starts to affect a driver's abilities (reflexes, concentration, eyesight, etc) so accident probability rises. The graph seems to be based fairly accurately on Massie and Cambell's 1993 paper 'analysis of Accident Rates by Age, Gender and time of Day ... ' itself taken from a 1990 survey. At the time the overall rate was 3.03 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles - with rates of 9.21 for teenagers and 11.53 for those over 75. At the time those over 75 (born 1915 or earlier) may well not have been formally taught to drive. It would be interesting to see how this data changes with time.</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">;</ins>Fatal car crash probability based on age</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>'''Overall US fatal crash rate per mile traveled:<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''' </del>This graph attempts to normalize these factors by correlating accident probability to how many miles the driver had driven by the time they died in an accident. However, the accident probability decreases with time as {{w|road traffic safety}} improves. The graph does a conservative estimate for future years, probably because improvements are, by nature, incremental -- which is why the graph has a slightly hyperbolic shape.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:Young drivers are generally considered more reckless, which leads to more accidents ([[Randall]] is shown to have started this stage in the year 2000). Actuaries noted a spike in the death rates for teenage boys even before cars were invented. As drivers become comfortable with driving, internalizing the {{w|Traffic#rules of the road|rules of the road}}, their accident probability quickly drops, but this decrease becomes less pronounced when the driver needs to adapt to new traffic patterns due to moving or changing schedules (2010). After driving for 20 years, accident probability reaches a minimum, but is shown to rise slightly in 2040, probably because Randall fears a {{w|midlife crisis}}. By 2050, aging starts to affect a driver's abilities (reflexes, concentration, eyesight, etc) so accident probability rises. The graph seems to be based fairly accurately on Massie and Cambell</ins>'<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">s 1993 paper </ins>'<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">analysis of Accident Rates by Age, Gender and time of Day ... </ins>' <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">itself taken from a 1990 survey. At the time the overall rate was 3.03 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles - with rates of 9.21 for teenagers and 11.53 for those over 75. At the time those over 75 (born 1915 or earlier) may well not have been formally taught to drive. It would be interesting to see how this data changes with time.</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* '''</del>My miles traveled by car per year<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''' </del>provides an estimate of miles traveled to be able to apply the second graph to himself. It shows a rise in the later half of the {{w|2000s decade}} (indicating a job which requires a lot of driving) and a fall shortly after (indicating a job that doesn't require much driving). with a rise up to the present. The graph predicts either that this rise will continue, or will drop since this &quot;depends on job, where I live etc.&quot;</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#160;</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">;</ins>Overall US fatal crash rate per mile traveled</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#160;</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:This graph attempts to normalize these factors by correlating accident probability to how many miles the driver had driven by the time they died in an accident. However, the accident probability decreases with time as {{w|road traffic safety}} improves. The graph does a conservative estimate for future years, probably because improvements are, by nature, incremental -- which is why the graph has a slightly hyperbolic shape.</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#160;</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">;</ins>My miles traveled by car per year</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#160;</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:This graph </ins>provides an estimate of miles traveled to be able to apply the second graph to himself. It shows a rise in the later half of the {{w|2000s decade}} (indicating a job which requires a lot of driving) and a fall shortly after (indicating a job that doesn't require much driving). with a rise up to the present. The graph predicts either that this rise will continue, or will drop since this &quot;depends on job, where I live etc.&quot;</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The final graph, ostensibly the {{w|Product_(mathematics)|product}} of the three previous graphs' probabilities, shows that Randall worries that he will eventually be involved in a fatal car crash unless self driving cars take over, which he believes would eliminate car related fatalities. He is of the opinion that they will take over, but that they might not do so quickly enough to 'save' him from the spike of age-related fatalities in later life.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The final graph, ostensibly the {{w|Product_(mathematics)|product}} of the three previous graphs' probabilities, shows that Randall worries that he will eventually be involved in a fatal car crash unless self driving cars take over, which he believes would eliminate car related fatalities. He is of the opinion that they will take over, but that they might not do so quickly enough to 'save' him from the spike of age-related fatalities in later life.</div></td></tr> </table>

FaviFake https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=311344&oldid=prev 2023-04-24T05:36:33Z

<p>‎<span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Transcript</span></span></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr style="vertical-align: top;" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: white; color:black; text-align: center;">Revision as of 05:36, 24 April 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l34" >Line 34:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 34:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Transcript==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Transcript==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color:black; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}</del></div></td><td colspan="2">&#160;</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:[Graphs are shown inside of a panel.]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>:[Graphs are shown inside of a panel.]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #333333; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #e6e6e6; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> </table>

Xurkitree10 https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=283804&oldid=prev 2022-05-26T20:01:05Z

<p>Reverted edits by <a href="/wiki/index.php/Special:Contributions/Donald_Trump" title="Special:Contributions/Donald Trump">Donald Trump</a> (<a href="/wiki/index.php?title=User_talk:Donald_Trump&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="User talk:Donald Trump (page does not exist)">talk</a>) to last revision by <a href="/wiki/index.php/User:CRLF" title="User:CRLF">CRLF</a></p> <a href="//www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&amp;diff=283804&amp;oldid=281554">Show changes</a>

Theusaf https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=281554&oldid=prev 2022-05-26T18:56:48Z

<p>Reverted edit by anti-crap user</p> <a href="//www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&amp;diff=281554&amp;oldid=280769">Show changes</a>

Donald Trump https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=280769&oldid=prev 2022-05-26T18:04:08Z

<p>Reverted vandalism with <a href="/wiki/index.php/User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js" title="User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js">User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js</a></p> <a href="//www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&amp;diff=280769&amp;oldid=277588">Show changes</a>

CRLF https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=277588&oldid=prev 2022-05-26T17:01:57Z

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Donald Trump https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=270023&oldid=prev 2022-05-16T23:30:38Z

<p>Reverted edits by <a href="/wiki/index.php/Special:Contributions/The_author_of_xkcd" title="Special:Contributions/The author of xkcd">The author of xkcd</a> (<a href="/wiki/index.php?title=User_talk:The_author_of_xkcd&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="User talk:The author of xkcd (page does not exist)">talk</a>) to last revision by <a href="/wiki/index.php/User:Theusaf" title="User:Theusaf">Theusaf</a></p> <a href="//www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&amp;diff=270023&amp;oldid=269400">Show changes</a>

Davidy22 https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=269400&oldid=prev 2022-05-16T22:53:09Z

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The author of xkcd https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=267825&oldid=prev 2022-05-11T18:45:17Z

<p>Reverted edits by <a href="/wiki/index.php/Special:Contributions/%F0%9F%91%96%F0%9F%94%A5" title="Special:Contributions/👖🔥">👖🔥</a> (<a href="/wiki/index.php?title=User_talk:%F0%9F%91%96%F0%9F%94%A5&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="User talk:👖🔥 (page does not exist)">talk</a>) to last revision by <a href="/wiki/index.php/User:Jacky720" title="User:Jacky720">Jacky720</a></p> <a href="//www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&amp;diff=267825&amp;oldid=266474">Show changes</a>

Theusaf https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1993:_Fatal_Crash_Rate&diff=266474&oldid=prev 2022-05-11T17:41:19Z

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