2107: Launch Risk - Revision history

42.book.addict at 17:30, 1 November 2024

2024-11-01T17:30:29Z

141.101.99.111: /* Explanation */ Adding sense of "if rare event A happened, then less rare event B should happen" sense of anticipation (seems fairly central, to me). Nicifying wikilink, to local standards. Noting (presuming!) the vintage of the stats (without updating)

2024-02-09T16:38:08Z

‎Explanation: Adding sense of "if rare event A happened, then less rare event B should happen" sense of anticipation (seems fairly central, to me). Nicifying wikilink, to local standards. Noting (presuming!) the vintage of the stats (without updating)

172.70.91.11: /* Transcript */

2024-02-09T14:58:24Z

‎Transcript

Theusaf: Reverted edits by FemboydomUwU (talk) to last revision by Davidy22

2022-07-30T21:13:01Z

Reverted edits by FemboydomUwU (talk) to last revision by Davidy22

FemboydomUwU at 21:05, 30 July 2022

2022-07-30T21:05:05Z

Davidy22: Reverted edits by Davidy22 is built for BBC (talk) to last revision by Theusaf

2022-06-01T17:09:24Z

Reverted edits by Davidy22 is built for BBC (talk) to last revision by Theusaf

Davidy22 is built for BBC at 17:08, 1 June 2022

2022-06-01T17:08:18Z

Theusaf: Reverted edits by Donald Trump (talk) to last revision by CRLF

2022-05-26T19:59:26Z

Reverted edits by Donald Trump (talk) to last revision by CRLF

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Donald Trump: Reverted edit by anti-crap user

2022-05-26T19:03:54Z

Reverted edit by anti-crap user

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CRLF: Reverted vandalism with User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js

2022-05-26T18:02:16Z

Reverted vandalism with User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js

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← Older revision		Revision as of 17:30, 1 November 2024
Line 44:		Line 44:
	[[Category:Space]]		[[Category:Space]]
	[[Category:Sharks]]		[[Category:Sharks]]
		+	[[Category:Rockets]]

@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 This comic deals with the faulty application of general statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, to specific situations with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts.
-A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut.  Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about.
+A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut. Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about.
-The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. The second astronaut's nervousness is understandable as space missions are historically quite dangerous, and have numerous avenues for potentially fatal failure, certainly far beyond the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning, approximately [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds 1 in 14,600 throughout your entire life].
+The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. It may also provoke a false understanding that, given two events each with given  likelihoods of happening, where chance has proven sufficiently provident enough for the less likely one to have occurred, the 'luck threshold' has been exceeded enough to make the more likely one now a practical certainty (a variation upon the {{w|hot hand}} fallacy, though with nominally independent events and opposing desirabilities).
 The title text creates additional confusion by referencing another common statistical reference point, the probability of dying in a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being uncommon, they are also less likely to kill their victim than is commonly assumed. Still, while shark attacks are more frequently fatal than rocket launches, this comparison is once again useless, as the astronaut is not in any danger of sharks, but is literal seconds from launching into space. The astronaut is presumably not especially reassured by the "pretty high" survival rate.
-Of the 557 people who who have been in Earth orbit, 18 (3%) have died in related accidents, not specifically at launch ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents List of spaceflight-related accidents and incidents], [https://www.worldspaceflight.com/bios/stats.php Astronaut/Cosmonaut Statistics]).  Of the 93 incidents logged for 2018 in the [http://www.sharkattackfile.net/index.htm Global Shark Attack File], 4 (4.3%) were fatal, but the statistic has been higher in the past when there was likely less education against provoking sharks.
+Of the 557 people who who had been in Earth orbit (as of the time of this comic) 18 (3%) have died in related accidents, not specifically at launch ({{w|List of spaceflight-related accidents and incidents}}, [https://www.worldspaceflight.com/bios/stats.php Astronaut/Cosmonaut Statistics]).  Of the 93 incidents logged for 2018 in the [http://www.sharkattackfile.net/index.htm Global Shark Attack File], 4 (4.3%) were fatal, but the statistic has been higher in the past when there was likely less education against provoking sharks.
 A large metal rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures.  However launch controllers generally monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely.

@@ Line 25: / Line 25: @@
 ==Transcript==
-:[A large spaceship rocket is standing on it's launchpad, just decoupled from the tower that supports it ready for launch. At the very top of the rocket where the astronauts are sitting there are two lines coming out, indicating the speak from the two astronauts inside the rocket. Next to the top of the rocket there is a speech bubble drawn with jagged line indicating sound from a loudspeaker. It is the countdown to the launch.]
+:[A large spaceship rocket is standing on its launchpad, just decoupled from the tower that supports it ready for launch. At the very top of the rocket where the astronauts are sitting there are two lines coming out, indicating the speak from the two astronauts inside the rocket. Next to the top of the rocket there is a speech bubble drawn with jagged line indicating sound from a loudspeaker. It is the countdown to the launch.]
 :Astronaut 1: How you feeling?
 :Astronaut 2: Honestly, pretty nervous.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-Kid named finger:
+{{comic
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣀⣴⣶⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣶⣦⣀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
+| number    = 2107
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣤⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
+| date      = February 4, 2019
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣧⠀⠀⠀⢠
+| title     = Launch Risk
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣟⣛⣻⣿⣿⣟⣿⣿⣿⣷⠀⠀⠀
+| image     = launch_risk.png
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣫⣽⣾⣻⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⣿⣿⠀⠀⠀
+| titletext = Don't worry--you're less likely to die from a space launch than from a shark attack. The survival rate is pretty high for both!
-⠀⠀⠀⢰⣿⣿⣻⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⠻⡿⠿⠟⠛⣟⣿⣽⠀⠀⠀
+}}
-⠀⠀⠀⠸⣿⣿⣿⣷⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⠍⠈⠀⠁⣴⡆⠀⠀⠠⢭⣮⣿⡶⠀⠀
-⠀⡴⠲⣦⢽⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣟⣩⣨⣀⡄⣐⣾⣿⣿⣇⠠⣷⣶⣿⣿⡠⠁⠀
+==Explanation==
-⠀⠃⢀⡄⠀⢻⣿⣿⣿⣿⣽⢿⣿⣯⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⢿⣿⣿⡟⣿⠀⠀⠀
+This comic deals with the faulty application of general statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, to specific situations with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts.
-⠀⠀⠣⠧⠀⢿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⠟⢸⣿⠿⠿⠿⣧⠙⣿⣿⡿⠀⠀⠀
-⠀⠀⠀⠁⠼⣒⡿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣠⣬⠀⠀⠀⠀⣾⣷⡈⣿⡇⠀⠀⠀
+A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut.  Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about.
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠉⢳⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⢟⠗⠼⠖⠒⠔⠉⠉⠻⣿⠇⠀⠀⠀
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⣻⡿⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⡀⣤⡄⠸⣰⣾⡒⣷⣴⣿⠀⠀⠀⠀
+The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. The second astronaut's nervousness is understandable as space missions are historically quite dangerous, and have numerous avenues for potentially fatal failure, certainly far beyond the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning, approximately [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds 1 in 14,600 throughout your entire life].
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠂⢸⡗⡄⠘⠭⣭⣷⣿⣮⣠⣌⣫⣿⣷⣿⣿⠃⠀⠈⠀⠀
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠀⢸⣿⣾⣷⣦⡿⣿⣿⣿⡿⢻⠞⣹⣿⣿⠏⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
+The title text creates additional confusion by referencing another common statistical reference point, the probability of dying in a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being uncommon, they are also less likely to kill their victim than is commonly assumed. Still, while shark attacks are more frequently fatal than rocket launches, this comparison is once again useless, as the astronaut is not in any danger of sharks, but is literal seconds from launching into space. The astronaut is presumably not especially reassured by the "pretty high" survival rate.
-⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢘⠀⠘⢻⡿⢿⣋⣤⣤⠌⠉⠛⠛⠀⠈⠉⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡀

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-{{comic
+Kid named finger:
-| number    = 2107
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣀⣴⣶⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣶⣦⣀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
-| date      = February 4, 2019
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣤⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
-| title     = Launch Risk
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣧⠀⠀⠀⢠
-| image     = launch_risk.png
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣟⣛⣻⣿⣿⣟⣿⣿⣿⣷⠀⠀⠀
-| titletext = Don't worry--you're less likely to die from a space launch than from a shark attack. The survival rate is pretty high for both!
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣫⣽⣾⣻⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⣿⣿⠀⠀⠀
-}}
+⠀⠀⠀⢰⣿⣿⣻⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⠻⡿⠿⠟⠛⣟⣿⣽⠀⠀⠀
+⠀⠀⠀⠸⣿⣿⣿⣷⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⠍⠈⠀⠁⣴⡆⠀⠀⠠⢭⣮⣿⡶⠀⠀
-==Explanation==
+⠀⡴⠲⣦⢽⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣟⣩⣨⣀⡄⣐⣾⣿⣿⣇⠠⣷⣶⣿⣿⡠⠁⠀
-This comic deals with the faulty application of general statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, to specific situations with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts.
+⠀⠃⢀⡄⠀⢻⣿⣿⣿⣿⣽⢿⣿⣯⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⢿⣿⣿⡟⣿⠀⠀⠀
+⠀⠀⠣⠧⠀⢿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⠟⢸⣿⠿⠿⠿⣧⠙⣿⣿⡿⠀⠀⠀
-A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut.  Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about.
+⠀⠀⠀⠁⠼⣒⡿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣠⣬⠀⠀⠀⠀⣾⣷⡈⣿⡇⠀⠀⠀
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠉⢳⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⢟⠗⠼⠖⠒⠔⠉⠉⠻⣿⠇⠀⠀⠀
-The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. The second astronaut's nervousness is understandable as space missions are historically quite dangerous, and have numerous avenues for potentially fatal failure, certainly far beyond the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning, approximately [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds 1 in 14,600 throughout your entire life].
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⣻⡿⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⡀⣤⡄⠸⣰⣾⡒⣷⣴⣿⠀⠀⠀⠀
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠂⢸⡗⡄⠘⠭⣭⣷⣿⣮⣠⣌⣫⣿⣷⣿⣿⠃⠀⠈⠀⠀
-The title text creates additional confusion by referencing another common statistical reference point, the probability of dying in a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being uncommon, they are also less likely to kill their victim than is commonly assumed. Still, while shark attacks are more frequently fatal than rocket launches, this comparison is once again useless, as the astronaut is not in any danger of sharks, but is literal seconds from launching into space. The astronaut is presumably not especially reassured by the "pretty high" survival rate.
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠀⢸⣿⣾⣷⣦⡿⣿⣿⣿⡿⢻⠞⣹⣿⣿⠏⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
+⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢘⠀⠘⢻⡿⢿⣋⣤⣤⠌⠉⠛⠛⠀⠈⠉⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡀