2400: Statistics - Revision history

172.68.110.211: /* Graph */

2024-06-07T20:37:11Z

‎Graph

Kynde: /* Explanation */

2024-01-18T12:33:15Z

‎Explanation

Kynde: /* Explanation */

2024-01-18T12:33:03Z

‎Explanation

Ktro: /* Graph */

2023-11-26T16:10:04Z

‎Graph

Zmatt: /* Graph */ Make link to chart actually link to the chart

2023-07-28T19:30:41Z

‎Graph: Make link to chart actually link to the chart

172.70.206.150: /* Transcript */ research

2023-01-19T19:48:14Z

‎Transcript: research

Jeneralist: /* Graph */ changed reference from the Moderna vaccine results chart to the Pfizer results chart -- published first, Randall more likely to get excited about it, and a closer visual match to the graph in the comic

2022-10-21T03:58:55Z

‎Graph: changed reference from the Moderna vaccine results chart to the Pfizer results chart -- published first, Randall more likely to get excited about it, and a closer visual match to the graph in the comic

Theusaf: Reverted edits by Donald Trump (talk) to last revision by CRLF

2022-05-26T20:01:49Z

Reverted edits by Donald Trump (talk) to last revision by CRLF

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Donald Trump: Reverted edit by anti-crap user

2022-05-26T18:52:17Z

Reverted edit by anti-crap user

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CRLF: Reverted vandalism with User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js

2022-05-26T18:04:58Z

Reverted vandalism with User:CRLF/OneClickUndo.js

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@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 ===Graph===
-The main focus of the comic is a graph showing cases of COVID-19 versus time for two groups: one group was vaccinated and the other group was not. Graphs are ways to visualize data, and for real data indicate specific values. This graph seems to be based on [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the Pfizer vaccine's results]. The higher line ("placebo group") rises in a steep curve. The lower line ("vaccine group") follows the first for a bit but then levels out to a much slower rate of climb. Officially, a scientific assessment of the effectiveness of anything requires rigorous statistical analysis. This is particularly true in medical studies, where impacts of biology can be highly complex and subject to many factors, meaning that careful review of the data is necessary to confirm that an intervention was effective. The joke of this comic is that the intervention presented here is so ''obviously'' effective that it's obvious even to a layman with little understanding of the math. A few days after the vaccine was administered, cases in the vaccinated group essentially flatline, while cases in the placebo group continue to rise as a significant rate. The data is so "good", meaning that numbers for the treatment and control groups diverge so dramatically, that actual analysis becomes almost a formality: a glance at the chart would convince most people that the treatment is effective.
+The main focus of the comic is a graph showing cases of COVID-19 versus time for two groups: one group was vaccinated and the other group was not. Graphs are ways to visualize data, and for real data indicate specific values. This graph seems to be based on [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the Pfizer vaccine's results]. The higher line ("placebo group") rises in a steep curve. The lower line ("vaccine group") follows the first for a bit but then levels out to a much slower rate of climb. Officially, a scientific assessment of the effectiveness of anything requires rigorous statistical analysis. This is particularly true in medical studies, where impacts of biology can be highly complex and subject to many factors, meaning that careful review of the data is necessary to confirm that an intervention was effective. The joke of this comic is that the intervention presented here is so ''obviously'' effective that it's obvious even to a layman with little understanding of the math. A few days after the vaccine was administered, cases in the vaccinated group essentially flatline, while cases in the placebo group continue to rise at a significant rate. The data is so "good", meaning that numbers for the treatment and control groups diverge so dramatically, that actual analysis becomes almost a formality: a glance at the chart would convince most people that the treatment is effective.
 This comic was released one week after the FDA granted an emergency use authorization for the {{w|BNT162b2|Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine}}, and 8 days after results of its Phase 3 clinical trial were published in [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the ''New England Journal of Medicine'']. The document includes the following [https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-27/nejmoa2034577/20210819/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2034577_f3.jpeg chart].  The charts draw the integral of the incidence data rather than the data itself ("cumulative" rather than "rate"): this results in changes in disease rate towards the left side of the chart, being added into the data on the right side, amplifying their difference.  This technique for emphasizing the data is valid: the spread between the lines only continues to increase if the effect continues happening, such that the total spread at the right is proportional to the total effect the vaccine had.  The charts do not show any information on other possible variables.  Randall has described previously in his webcomics how very clear charts can be made to hide misleading data.  The linked graph does not leave the numbers out, and the numbers indicate the vaccine is 91% effective at preventing the disease (and a 95% chance of being between 85 and 95% efficient).

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic is another in a [[:Category:COVID-19|series of comics]] related to the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}}, specifically regarding the [[:Category:COVID-19 vaccine|COVID-19 vaccine]]. It is also another one of [[Randall|Randall's]] [[:Category:Tips|Tips]], this time a statistics tip. The next tip comic after this [[435: Geothmetic Meandian]] had a stats tip.
+This comic is another in a [[:Category:COVID-19|series of comics]] related to the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}}, specifically regarding the [[:Category:COVID-19 vaccine|COVID-19 vaccine]]. It is also another one of [[Randall|Randall's]] [[:Category:Tips|Tips]], this time a statistics tip. The next tip comic after this [[2435: Geothmetic Meandian]] had a stats tip.
 ===Graph===

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic is another in a [[:Category:COVID-19|series of comics]] related to the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}}, specifically regarding the [[:Category:COVID-19 vaccine|COVID-19 vaccine]]. It is also another one of [[Randall|Randall's]] [[:Category:Tips|Tips]], this time a statistics tip.
+This comic is another in a [[:Category:COVID-19|series of comics]] related to the {{w|COVID-19 pandemic}}, specifically regarding the [[:Category:COVID-19 vaccine|COVID-19 vaccine]]. It is also another one of [[Randall|Randall's]] [[:Category:Tips|Tips]], this time a statistics tip. The next tip comic after this [[435: Geothmetic Meandian]] had a stats tip.
 ===Graph===

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 The main focus of the comic is a graph showing cases of COVID-19 versus time for two groups: one group was vaccinated and the other group was not. Graphs are ways to visualize data, and for real data indicate specific values. This graph seems to be based on [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the Pfizer vaccine's results]. The higher line ("placebo group") rises in a steep curve. The lower line ("vaccine group") follows the first for a bit but then levels out to a much slower rate of climb. Officially, a scientific assessment of the effectiveness of anything requires rigorous statistical analysis. This is particularly true in medical studies, where impacts of biology can be highly complex and subject to many factors, meaning that careful review of the data is necessary to confirm that an intervention was effective. The joke of this comic is that the intervention presented here is so ''obviously'' effective that it's obvious even to a layman with little understanding of the math. A few days after the vaccine was administered, cases in the vaccinated group essentially flatline, while cases in the placebo group continue to rise as a significant rate. The data is so "good", meaning that numbers for the treatment and control groups diverge so dramatically, that actual analysis becomes almost a formality: a glance at the chart would convince most people that the treatment is effective.
-This comic was released one week after the FDA granted an emergency use authorization for the {{w|BNT162b2|Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine}} was released, and 8 days after results of its Phase 3 clinical trial were published in [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the ''New England Journal of Medicine'']. The document includes the following [https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-27/nejmoa2034577/20210819/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2034577_f3.jpeg chart].  The charts draw the integral of the incidence data rather than the data itself ("cumulative" rather than "rate"): this results in changes in disease rate towards the left side of the chart, being added into the data on the right side, amplifying their difference.  This technique for emphasizing the data is valid: the spread between the lines only continues to increase if the effect continues happening, such that the total spread at the right is proportional to the total effect the vaccine had.  The charts do not show any information on other possible variables.  Randall has described previously in his webcomics how very clear charts can be made to hide misleading data.  The linked graph does not leave the numbers out, and the numbers indicate the vaccine is 91% effective at preventing the disease (and a 95% chance of being between 85 and 95% efficient).
+This comic was released one week after the FDA granted an emergency use authorization for the {{w|BNT162b2|Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine}}, and 8 days after results of its Phase 3 clinical trial were published in [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the ''New England Journal of Medicine'']. The document includes the following [https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-27/nejmoa2034577/20210819/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2034577_f3.jpeg chart].  The charts draw the integral of the incidence data rather than the data itself ("cumulative" rather than "rate"): this results in changes in disease rate towards the left side of the chart, being added into the data on the right side, amplifying their difference.  This technique for emphasizing the data is valid: the spread between the lines only continues to increase if the effect continues happening, such that the total spread at the right is proportional to the total effect the vaccine had.  The charts do not show any information on other possible variables.  Randall has described previously in his webcomics how very clear charts can be made to hide misleading data.  The linked graph does not leave the numbers out, and the numbers indicate the vaccine is 91% effective at preventing the disease (and a 95% chance of being between 85 and 95% efficient).
 The advice here could be seen as the inverse of the "science tip" in [[2311: Confidence Interval]], in which the data was so ''bad'' that its error bars fell outside of the graph and were not shown. Also there's some association with [[1725: Linear Regression]] where the data is not so good that you don't need to perform linear analysis.

@@ Line 13: / Line 13: @@
 The main focus of the comic is a graph showing cases of COVID-19 versus time for two groups: one group was vaccinated and the other group was not. Graphs are ways to visualize data, and for real data indicate specific values. This graph seems to be based on [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the Pfizer vaccine's results]. The higher line ("placebo group") rises in a steep curve. The lower line ("vaccine group") follows the first for a bit but then levels out to a much slower rate of climb. Officially, a scientific assessment of the effectiveness of anything requires rigorous statistical analysis. This is particularly true in medical studies, where impacts of biology can be highly complex and subject to many factors, meaning that careful review of the data is necessary to confirm that an intervention was effective. The joke of this comic is that the intervention presented here is so ''obviously'' effective that it's obvious even to a layman with little understanding of the math. A few days after the vaccine was administered, cases in the vaccinated group essentially flatline, while cases in the placebo group continue to rise as a significant rate. The data is so "good", meaning that numbers for the treatment and control groups diverge so dramatically, that actual analysis becomes almost a formality: a glance at the chart would convince most people that the treatment is effective.
-This comic was released one week after the FDA granted an emergency use authorization for the {{w|BNT162b2|Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine}} was released, and 8 days after results of its Phase 3 clinical trial were published in [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the ''New England Journal of Medicine'']. The document includes the following [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 chart].  The charts draw the integral of the incidence data rather than the data itself ("cumulative" rather than "rate"): this results in changes in disease rate towards the left side of the chart, being added into the data on the right side, amplifying their difference.  This technique for emphasizing the data is valid: the spread between the lines only continues to increase if the effect continues happening, such that the total spread at the right is proportional to the total effect the vaccine had.  The charts do not show any information on other possible variables.  Randall has described previously in his webcomics how very clear charts can be made to hide misleading data.  The linked graph does not leave the numbers out, and the numbers indicate the vaccine is 91% effective at preventing the disease (and a 95% chance of being between 85 and 95% efficient).
+This comic was released one week after the FDA granted an emergency use authorization for the {{w|BNT162b2|Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine}} was released, and 8 days after results of its Phase 3 clinical trial were published in [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 the ''New England Journal of Medicine'']. The document includes the following [https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.383.issue-27/nejmoa2034577/20210819/images/img_xlarge/nejmoa2034577_f3.jpeg chart].  The charts draw the integral of the incidence data rather than the data itself ("cumulative" rather than "rate"): this results in changes in disease rate towards the left side of the chart, being added into the data on the right side, amplifying their difference.  This technique for emphasizing the data is valid: the spread between the lines only continues to increase if the effect continues happening, such that the total spread at the right is proportional to the total effect the vaccine had.  The charts do not show any information on other possible variables.  Randall has described previously in his webcomics how very clear charts can be made to hide misleading data.  The linked graph does not leave the numbers out, and the numbers indicate the vaccine is 91% effective at preventing the disease (and a 95% chance of being between 85 and 95% efficient).
 The advice here could be seen as the inverse of the "science tip" in [[2311: Confidence Interval]], in which the data was so ''bad'' that its error bars fell outside of the graph and were not shown. Also there's some association with [[1725: Linear Regression]] where the data is not so good that you don't need to perform linear analysis.

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:48, 19 January 2023
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	[[Category:Statistics]]		[[Category:Statistics]]
	[[Category:Tips]]		[[Category:Tips]]
		+	[[Category:Scientific research]]