2889: Greenhouse Effect - Revision history

Megan: /* Explanation */ the comic does not appear as a joke at all; we don't need to disambiguate that

2026-04-03T23:05:41Z

‎Explanation: the comic does not appear as a joke at all; we don't need to disambiguate that

141.101.99.164: Undo revision 368673 by DKMell (talk) Normally more correct, but the title text (necessarily) is not formatted that way.

2025-03-12T09:15:05Z

Undo revision 368673 by DKMell (talk) Normally more correct, but the title text (necessarily) is not formatted that way.

DKMell: subscript

2025-03-11T18:30:49Z

subscript

Jkshapiro: /* Explanation */ Not clear what "a. o." means (maybe "alpha and omega"?) but the sentence works just fine without it.

2024-12-22T01:53:35Z

‎Explanation: Not clear what "a. o." means (maybe "alpha and omega"?) but the sentence works just fine without it.

172.68.213.15: oh, comic says double, so quote appriopriate numbers . No point for {{incomplete}} now

2024-02-08T12:26:12Z

oh, comic says double, so quote appriopriate numbers . No point for {{incomplete}} now

Oneforfortytwo: Undo revision 334365 by 172.68.34.59 (talk)

2024-02-07T04:23:02Z

Undo revision 334365 by 172.68.34.59 (talk)

172.68.34.59 at 18:27, 6 February 2024

2024-02-06T18:27:32Z

Tromag at 18:06, 6 February 2024

2024-02-06T18:06:09Z

172.70.86.42: /* Explanation */ Nothing to do with attitudes, save whatever the individual reader brings to the "it's now longer since" news. Comic states some simple baseline facts.

2024-02-06T00:36:12Z

‎Explanation: Nothing to do with attitudes, save whatever the individual reader brings to the "it's now longer since" news. Comic states some simple baseline facts.

172.68.213.149: Högbom doesn't deserve to be lumped with Arrhenius, whose article is also available directly

2024-02-05T22:58:20Z

Högbom doesn't deserve to be lumped with Arrhenius, whose article is also available directly

@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 ==Explanation==
-This comic has [[:Category:Climate change|climate change as its topic, a recurring theme]] on xkcd. There is no 'joke' <em>per se</em>, just a wry (and serious) observation on the timeline of climate change, and our understanding of it. The fact in question here is when science became aware of anthropogenic global warming and its primary cause.
+This comic has [[:Category:Climate change|climate change as its topic, a recurring theme]] on xkcd.
-The comic depicts a timeline with three events:
+It depicts a timeline with three events:
 * The introduction of the {{w|Watt steam engine}} in 1776. The comic takes it as the start of the {{w|Industrial Revolution}}, and the event that most directly ushered in the boom of fossil fuels' burning.
 * [https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Influence_of_Carbonic_Acid_in_the_Air_upon_the_Temperature_of_the_Ground The first quantitative prediction] of the {{w|greenhouse effect}} by {{w|Svante Arrhenius}} in January and April 1896 (that doubling CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would increase mean temperature by 5 to 6 °C, depending on latitude). Arrhenius drew on and included a summary of {{w|Arvid Högbom}}'s 1894 Swedish article, which dealt with carbon cycle over geological periods and first estimated annual global carbon emissions.

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 | imagesize = 740x315px
 | noexpand  = true
-| titletext = Once he had the answer, Arrhenius complained to his friends that he'd "wasted over a full year" doing tedious calculations by hand about "so trifling a matter" as hypothetical CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in far-off eras (quoted in Crawford, 1997).
+| titletext = Once he had the answer, Arrhenius complained to his friends that he'd "wasted over a full year" doing tedious calculations by hand about "so trifling a matter" as hypothetical CO2 concentrations in far-off eras (quoted in Crawford, 1997).
 }}

@@ Line 6: / Line 6: @@
 | imagesize = 740x315px
 | noexpand  = true
-| titletext = Once he had the answer, Arrhenius complained to his friends that he'd "wasted over a full year" doing tedious calculations by hand about "so trifling a matter" as hypothetical CO2 concentrations in far-off eras (quoted in Crawford, 1997).
+| titletext = Once he had the answer, Arrhenius complained to his friends that he'd "wasted over a full year" doing tedious calculations by hand about "so trifling a matter" as hypothetical CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in far-off eras (quoted in Crawford, 1997).
 }}

@@ Line 15: / Line 15: @@
 The comic depicts a timeline with three events:
 * The introduction of the {{w|Watt steam engine}} in 1776. The comic takes it as the start of the {{w|Industrial Revolution}}, and the event that most directly ushered in the boom of fossil fuels' burning.
-* [https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Influence_of_Carbonic_Acid_in_the_Air_upon_the_Temperature_of_the_Ground The first quantitative prediction] of the {{w|greenhouse effect}} by {{w|Svante Arrhenius}} in January and April 1896 (that, a. o., doubling CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would increase mean temperature by 5 to 6 °C, depending on latitude). Arrhenius drew on and included a summary of {{w|Arvid Högbom}}'s 1894 Swedish article, which dealt with carbon cycle over geological periods and first estimated annual global carbon emissions.
+* [https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Influence_of_Carbonic_Acid_in_the_Air_upon_the_Temperature_of_the_Ground The first quantitative prediction] of the {{w|greenhouse effect}} by {{w|Svante Arrhenius}} in January and April 1896 (that doubling CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would increase mean temperature by 5 to 6 °C, depending on latitude). Arrhenius drew on and included a summary of {{w|Arvid Högbom}}'s 1894 Swedish article, which dealt with carbon cycle over geological periods and first estimated annual global carbon emissions.
 * The present day, early 2024.

@@ Line 10: / Line 10: @@
 ==Explanation==
-{{incomplete|Created by CREATING CRETACEOUS PARK - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
-This comic has [[:Category:Climate change|climate change as its topic, a recurring theme]] on xkcd. There is no 'joke' <em>per se</em>, instead the comic represents a wry (and serious) observation on the timeline of climate change, and our understanding of it. The fact in question here is when science became aware of anthropogenic global warming and its primary cause.
+This comic has [[:Category:Climate change|climate change as its topic, a recurring theme]] on xkcd. There is no 'joke' <em>per se</em>, just a wry (and serious) observation on the timeline of climate change, and our understanding of it. The fact in question here is when science became aware of anthropogenic global warming and its primary cause.
 The comic depicts a timeline with three events:
-* The advent of the First {{w|Industrial Revolution}}. The comic dates this from the introduction of the {{w|Watt steam engine}} in 1776. This is arguably the event that most directly ushered in an explosion in the burning of fossil fuels that continues to this day.
+* The introduction of the {{w|Watt steam engine}} in 1776. The comic takes it as the start of the {{w|Industrial Revolution}}, and the event that most directly ushered in the boom of fossil fuels' burning.
-* [https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Influence_of_Carbonic_Acid_in_the_Air_upon_the_Temperature_of_the_Ground The first quantitative prediction] of the {{w|greenhouse effect}} by {{w|Svante Arrhenius}} in January and April 1896 (that, a. o., an increase of CO<sub>2</sub> concentration by half would increase mean temperature over 3 °C). Arrhenius drew on and included a summary of {{w|Arvid Högbom}}'s 1894 Swedish article, which dealt with carbon cycle over geological periods and also first estimated annual global carbon emissions.
+* [https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/On_the_Influence_of_Carbonic_Acid_in_the_Air_upon_the_Temperature_of_the_Ground The first quantitative prediction] of the {{w|greenhouse effect}} by {{w|Svante Arrhenius}} in January and April 1896 (that, a. o., doubling CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would increase mean temperature by 5 to 6 °C, depending on latitude). Arrhenius drew on and included a summary of {{w|Arvid Högbom}}'s 1894 Swedish article, which dealt with carbon cycle over geological periods and first estimated annual global carbon emissions.
 * The present day, early 2024.
-As the comic's caption points out, less time elapsed between the start of the Industrial Revolution and the work by Arrhenius, than has elapsed since then. Moreover, some present-day climate discussions may cite [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01849.x a 1957 paper by Revell and Seuss] as "the starting point" for modern inquiries into global warming. The comic notes "we figured out the greenhouse effect" 61 years prior; see both [https://folk.universitetetioslo.no/roberan/t/EarlyEstimates1.shtml Robbie 2018] and even longer {{w|History of climate change science}} which includes earlier, qualitative works.
+As the caption points out, less time elapsed between the start of the Industrial Revolution and the work by Arrhenius, than has elapsed since then. Some present-day climate discussions may cite [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01849.x a 1957 paper by Revell and Seuss] as "the starting point" for modern inquiries into global warming. While it was more advanced and detailed, the comic notes "we figured out the greenhouse effect" 61 years prior; see both [https://folk.universitetetioslo.no/roberan/t/EarlyEstimates1.shtml Robbie 2018] and even longer {{w|History of climate change science}} which includes earlier, qualitative works.
-The implication, which is consistent with other [[:Category:Climate change|climate change themed xkcd comics]], is that humans have taken insufficient action to slow or stop global warming despite knowing about it for more than a century, and understanding, at least intellectually, the consequences of inaction.
+The implication, consistent with other [[:Category:Climate change|climate change themed xkcd comics]], is that humans have taken insufficient action to stop global warming despite knowing about it for more than a century, and understanding, at least intellectually, the consequences of inaction.
-The title text portrays Arrhenius as dismissive of his work. A reading of the reference cited (page 8 in [https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS281r/Sources/Greenhouse-effect/Arrhenius/3-optional-Crawford-1997.pdf Crawford 1997]: 'Writing to a friend at the end of [1895], he found it "unbelievable that so trifling a matter has cost me a full year".') suggests instead that Arrhenius was complaining about the unanticipated difficulty of answering what he thought initially was a simple question, about the historical (geological time) connection between carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature. Per this reading, Arrhenius's complaint was about the work required to achieve the result, <em>not</em> about the significance of the result. His interpretation of the significance, though, differs from today's consensus (page 11 in Crawford 1997): "[Global warming will] allow our descendants, even if they only be those of a distant future, to live under a warmer sky and in a less harsh environment than we were granted".
+The title text portrays Arrhenius as dismissive of his work. A reading of the reference cited (page 8 in [https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS281r/Sources/Greenhouse-effect/Arrhenius/3-optional-Crawford-1997.pdf Crawford 1997]: 'Writing to a friend at the end of [1895], he found it "unbelievable that so trifling a matter has cost me a full year".') suggests instead that Arrhenius was complaining about the unanticipated difficulty of answering what he thought initially was a simple question, about the historical (geological time) connection between carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature. Per this reading, Arrhenius's complaint was about the work required to achieve the result, <em>not</em> about the significance of the result. His interpretation of the significance, though, differed from today's (page 11 in Crawford 1997): "[Global warming will] allow our descendants, even if they only be those of a distant future [estimating the doubling time as 500 years], to live under a warmer sky and in a less harsh environment than we were granted".
 ==Transcript==