Talk:2110: Error Bars - Revision history

172.68.47.114: Added a comment referencing the old meme, "Yo Dawg, I heard you like X, so I put some X on your X" and linked to one created for this comic

2019-09-24T16:56:15Z

Added a comment referencing the old meme, "Yo Dawg, I heard you like X, so I put some X on your X" and linked to one created for this comic

172.68.182.154 at 08:47, 19 February 2019

2019-02-19T08:47:55Z

Dragice: Suggesting an alternative explanation

2019-02-13T10:47:10Z

Suggesting an alternative explanation

172.68.154.64 at 07:59, 13 February 2019

2019-02-13T07:59:20Z

172.68.154.64 at 07:57, 13 February 2019

2019-02-13T07:57:47Z

108.162.242.19: Added comment(s).

2019-02-13T02:31:56Z

Added comment(s).

172.68.174.64 at 23:25, 12 February 2019

2019-02-12T23:25:01Z

PotatoGod: Zeno

2019-02-12T02:11:32Z

Zeno

162.158.78.178 at 23:38, 11 February 2019

2019-02-11T23:38:19Z

GreatWyrmGold: I like The Sound of Music.

2019-02-11T20:48:05Z

I like The Sound of Music.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:56, 24 September 2019
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	Good explanations but if I understand the comic correctly, the article does not really get to the point. It is indeed true that different modelling assumptions will give different confidence intervals, but a more mundane and more important source of uncertainty is statistical error (e.g., sampling error). CIs are typically used to convey the uncertainty around a point estimate (e.g., a mean) which has been computed from a random sample. If you take another random sample from the same population (e.g., perform an exact replication of an experiment), you will get a different mean, but also a different CI. See Cumming's dance of p-values and CIs for an illustration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OL1RqHrZQ8, or a talk I gave that covers a larger range of statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKX9iN0p5_A. In my talk I explain why it doesn't make sense to report inferential statistics (p-values, CIs, etc) with many significant digits, because you could have easily obtained very different p-values or CIs. The belief that inferential statistics are "stable" across replications is a very common misconception that can easily lead of erroneous inferences. So if you care about your statistical analyses being interpreted correctly, it is tempting to show the uncertainty around all the inferential statistics you report, including CI limits, as Monroe is suggesting. Like any statistics, CI limits are a function of the data and thus have a sampling distribution (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/08/05/the-p-value-is-a-random-variable/). Thus you can estimate the standard deviation of this sampling distribution, and this gives you the standard error of the confidence limit. There is one inaccuracy in the comic (I think): you can't define CIs on CI limits, because there is no true population value of CI limits. However you can compute standard errors of CI limits, or alternatively prediction intervals, and then compute standard errors and prediction intervals again and again, recursively. If my explanation makes any sense I can try to summarize it and incorporate it in the article. [[User:Dragice\|Dragice]] ([[User talk:Dragice\|talk]]) 10:47, 13 February 2019 (UTC)		Good explanations but if I understand the comic correctly, the article does not really get to the point. It is indeed true that different modelling assumptions will give different confidence intervals, but a more mundane and more important source of uncertainty is statistical error (e.g., sampling error). CIs are typically used to convey the uncertainty around a point estimate (e.g., a mean) which has been computed from a random sample. If you take another random sample from the same population (e.g., perform an exact replication of an experiment), you will get a different mean, but also a different CI. See Cumming's dance of p-values and CIs for an illustration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OL1RqHrZQ8, or a talk I gave that covers a larger range of statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKX9iN0p5_A. In my talk I explain why it doesn't make sense to report inferential statistics (p-values, CIs, etc) with many significant digits, because you could have easily obtained very different p-values or CIs. The belief that inferential statistics are "stable" across replications is a very common misconception that can easily lead of erroneous inferences. So if you care about your statistical analyses being interpreted correctly, it is tempting to show the uncertainty around all the inferential statistics you report, including CI limits, as Monroe is suggesting. Like any statistics, CI limits are a function of the data and thus have a sampling distribution (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/08/05/the-p-value-is-a-random-variable/). Thus you can estimate the standard deviation of this sampling distribution, and this gives you the standard error of the confidence limit. There is one inaccuracy in the comic (I think): you can't define CIs on CI limits, because there is no true population value of CI limits. However you can compute standard errors of CI limits, or alternatively prediction intervals, and then compute standard errors and prediction intervals again and again, recursively. If my explanation makes any sense I can try to summarize it and incorporate it in the article. [[User:Dragice\|Dragice]] ([[User talk:Dragice\|talk]]) 10:47, 13 February 2019 (UTC)
		+
		+	I doubt this was intended but what was brought to my mind -- and then what I couldn't get out of my head until I created one specifically for this comic -- was this old meme: [https://imgflip.com/i/3bffam Yo Dawg, I heard you like error bars...]. Thought it worth contributing! :) [[Special:Contributions/172.68.47.114\|172.68.47.114]] 16:56, 24 September 2019 (UTC)Brian

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        It will have limit. Becouse it will every time be 5% of prevous errors it will lower over time.   --172.68.154.40
               https://repl.it/repls/AppropriateMatureConferences for demonstration  --172.68.154.40
 Perhaps you should review [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1153:_Proof Zeno's paradoxes] [[User:PotatoGod|PotatoGod]] ([[User talk:PotatoGod|talk]]) 02:11, 12 February 2019 (UTC)

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:47, 13 February 2019
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	Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)		Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)
	https://explainxkcd.com/859/ relevant --172.68.154.64		https://explainxkcd.com/859/ relevant --172.68.154.64
		+
		+	Good explanations but if I understand the comic correctly, the article does not really get to the point. It is indeed true that different modelling assumptions will give different confidence intervals, but a more mundane and more important source of uncertainty is statistical error (e.g., sampling error). CIs are typically used to convey the uncertainty around a point estimate (e.g., a mean) which has been computed from a random sample. If you take another random sample from the same population (e.g., perform an exact replication of an experiment), you will get a different mean, but also a different CI. See Cumming's dance of p-values and CIs for an illustration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OL1RqHrZQ8, or a talk I gave that covers a larger range of statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKX9iN0p5_A. In my talk I explain why it doesn't make sense to report inferential statistics (p-values, CIs, etc) with many significant digits, because you could have easily obtained very different p-values or CIs. The belief that inferential statistics are "stable" across replications is a very common misconception that can easily lead of erroneous inferences. So if you care about your statistical analyses being interpreted correctly, it is tempting to show the uncertainty around all the inferential statistics you report, including CI limits, as Monroe is suggesting. Like any statistics, CI limits are a function of the data and thus have a sampling distribution (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2016/08/05/the-p-value-is-a-random-variable/). Thus you can estimate the standard deviation of this sampling distribution, and this gives you the standard error of the confidence limit. There is one inaccuracy in the comic (I think): you can't define CIs on CI limits, because there is no true population value of CI limits. However you can compute standard errors of CI limits, or alternatively prediction intervals, and then compute standard errors and prediction intervals again and again, recursively. If my explanation makes any sense I can try to summarize it and incorporate it in the article. [[User:Dragice\|Dragice]] ([[User talk:Dragice\|talk]]) 10:47, 13 February 2019 (UTC)

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	Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)		Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)
−	https://explainxkcd.com/859/ relevant	+	https://explainxkcd.com/859/ relevant --172.68.154.64

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:57, 13 February 2019
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	Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)		Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)
		+	https://explainxkcd.com/859/ relevant

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	He has confidence intervals in confidence intervals alone; despite this, you see, he lacks confidence in...he. [[User:GreatWyrmGold\|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold\|talk]]) 20:48, 11 February 2019 (UTC)		He has confidence intervals in confidence intervals alone; despite this, you see, he lacks confidence in...he. [[User:GreatWyrmGold\|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold\|talk]]) 20:48, 11 February 2019 (UTC)
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		+	Just to pair with the alt-text: ...))))))))))). [[Special:Contributions/108.162.242.19\|108.162.242.19]] 02:31, 13 February 2019 (UTC)

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	I put in a little thing about fractals and Cantor sets, seemed relevant. [[User:Netherin5\|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5\|talk]]) 17:32, 11 February 2019 (UTC)		I put in a little thing about fractals and Cantor sets, seemed relevant. [[User:Netherin5\|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5\|talk]]) 17:32, 11 February 2019 (UTC)
		+	: Fractals seem more relevant than the Cantor set, since the Cantor set is the limit as you infinitely subtract stuff from a finite interval, whereas this is adding (more like a geometric series).[[Special:Contributions/172.68.174.64\|172.68.174.64]] 23:25, 12 February 2019 (UTC)

	Would the series have a limit or would it continue on until the error bars go from infinity to +infinity?		Would the series have a limit or would it continue on until the error bars go from infinity to +infinity?

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 That's not my understanding of "propagating error". I understand that phrase to mean that you're taking a measured value (that has uncertainty) and plugging it into a formula / using it calculate another value. Because of the way this works, the (absolute & relative) error on the newly calculated value is likely to be larger or smaller than the error in the original value (the overall size of the error bars changes). Randall's joke is that, instead of calculating the new error bars, he calculates error bars on the ends of his existing bars. I also agree with Netherin5 that there's a clear fractal reference here.
 [[Special:Contributions/162.158.79.113|162.158.79.113]] 17:45, 11 February 2019 (UTC) hagmanti
 A question too, does the CI tend towards negative infinity, zero, or one? Edit: Today I learned what CI means. [[User:Netherin5|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5|talk]]) 18:01, 11 February 2019 (UTC)
 He has confidence intervals in confidence intervals alone; despite this, you see, he lacks confidence in...he. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 20:48, 11 February 2019 (UTC)

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	A question too, does the CI tend towards negative infinity, zero, or one? Edit: Today I learned what CI means. [[User:Netherin5\|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5\|talk]]) 18:01, 11 February 2019 (UTC)		A question too, does the CI tend towards negative infinity, zero, or one? Edit: Today I learned what CI means. [[User:Netherin5\|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5\|talk]]) 18:01, 11 February 2019 (UTC)
		+
		+	He has confidence intervals in confidence intervals alone; despite this, you see, he lacks confidence in...he. [[User:GreatWyrmGold\|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold\|talk]]) 20:48, 11 February 2019 (UTC)