Talk:2755: Effect Size - Revision history

172.69.194.187 at 02:19, 24 September 2024

2024-09-24T02:19:50Z

42.book.addict: Undo revision 351022 by 172.70.91.75 (talk)

2024-09-24T01:06:39Z

Undo revision 351022 by 172.70.91.75 (talk)

172.70.91.75: Undo revision 351009 by 42.book.addict (talk) Maybe they did it wrong, but explained/corrected straight afterward. Not sure original needs changing. (And makes the replies look odd!)

2024-09-23T22:37:52Z

Undo revision 351009 by 42.book.addict (talk) Maybe they did it wrong, but explained/corrected straight afterward. Not sure original needs changing. (And makes the replies look odd!)

42.book.addict at 22:15, 23 September 2024

2024-09-23T22:15:00Z

Fephisto at 14:42, 15 August 2023

2023-08-15T14:42:32Z

Pbb at 16:56, 7 April 2023

2023-04-07T16:56:46Z

162.158.86.191 at 10:31, 30 March 2023

2023-03-30T10:31:14Z

172.70.251.39 at 07:01, 30 March 2023

2023-03-30T07:01:43Z

Orion205 at 17:16, 29 March 2023

2023-03-29T17:16:52Z

Tier666 at 17:03, 29 March 2023

2023-03-29T17:03:42Z

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
-meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
+meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1477: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
-: This anon user mistakenly linked in 1477 instead of 1447 for Meta-Analysis, it has been changed to the correct link as to not have a red link. Please keep this in mind when reading the below messages. [[User:42.book.addict|42.book.addict]] ([[User talk:42.book.addict|talk]]) 01:06, 24 September 2024 (UTC)
+:: This anon user mistakenly linked in 1477 instead of 1447 for Meta-Analysis, it has been changed to the correct link as to not have a red link. Please keep this in mind when reading the below messages. [[User:42.book.addict|42.book.addict]] ([[User talk:42.book.addict|talk]]) 01:06, 24 September 2024 (UTC)
 : 1477 Is [[1477|Star Wars]]? [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 18:39, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 :: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
-meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1477: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
+meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
 : 1477 Is [[1477|Star Wars]]? [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 18:39, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 :: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
-meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] <!-- This anon user mistakenly linked in 1477 instead of 1447 for Meta-Analysis -->[[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
+meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1477: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
 : 1477 Is [[1477|Star Wars]]? [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 18:39, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 :: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
-meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1477: Meta-Analysis]] [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
+meta-analyses are also referenced in [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] <!-- This anon user mistakenly linked in 1477 instead of 1447 for Meta-Analysis -->[[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.104|172.71.26.104]] 16:18, 28 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
 : 1477 Is [[1477|Star Wars]]? [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 18:39, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 :: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
 Artinum [[Special:Contributions/172.70.91.151|172.70.91.151]] 13:06, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 : It's SCIENCE all the way Down! [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 18:39, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
 scroll box location is ~25.5% down track: scroll box is 10px high, scrollbar is 290px high, 54px above box, 226px below = center of scrollbox is 59/231 = 25.541..% = ~209,815 pages of total studies. Adjusted to 210,000 to account for rounding errors. (Plus the scroll box might not even move a pixel for a number of pages).[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41|162.158.146.41]]

@@ Line 15: / Line 15: @@
 scroll box location is ~25.5% down track: scroll box is 10px high, scrollbar is 290px high, 54px above box, 226px below = center of scrollbox is 59/231 = 25.541..% = ~209,815 pages of total studies. Adjusted to 210,000 to account for rounding errors. (Plus the scroll box might not even move a pixel for a number of pages).[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41|162.158.146.41]]
 : Wait, if the scrollbar is 290px high, then shouldn't the position be 59/290 = 20.345%? It looks a lot more like 1/5th down than 1/4th down to my eyes.  --[[User:Orion205|Orion205]] ([[User talk:Orion205|talk]]) 17:16, 29 March 2023 (UTC)
 Did anyone notice the asterisk next to one of the graph elements? There's got to be a lot of those... Not all scientific studies (I would say very few) can be boiled down to a single numerical output.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41|162.158.146.41]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:31, 30 March 2023
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	meaning, on average SCIENCE IS HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT (p<0.001)		meaning, on average SCIENCE IS HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT (p<0.001)
		+
		+
		+
		+	[[Special:Contributions/162.158.86.191\|162.158.86.191]] 10:31, 30 March 2023 (UTC)
		+	I re-viewed the graph and read the comments on the web page. They say the underlying number of papers is 2,3 million. My fault was that I havent multiplied the number of pages with number of studies per page. So, the confidence interval will become even more narrow
		+
		+	The 95% confidence interval for ALL studies assuming a number of around 2,100,000 studies would be
		+	0.17 +/- [1.96*1.146/sqrt(2100000)] = 0.17 +/- 0.00155 = [0.16845, 0.17155].
		+
		+	The 99.9% confidence interval for ALL studies assuming a number of around 250,000 studies would be
		+	0.17 +/- [3.3*1.146/sqrt(2100000)] = 0.17 +/- 0.00261 = [0.16739, 0.17261].
		+
		+	[[Special:Contributions/162.158.86.191\|162.158.86.191]] 10:31, 30 March 2023 (UTC)
		+	Interesting is, that the population mean is 0.17 and not 0.000. When averaging the effects of so many studies, all different in topic and investigated treatments and strata, one would expect that the global mean of all effects is zero. But it is 0.17. Clear indication of publication bias. There is higher probability for a positive effect to be published in a paper.

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:01, 30 March 2023
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	:: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248\|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf		:: sorry, I meant [[1447: Meta-Analysis]] :) [[Special:Contributions/172.71.166.248\|172.71.166.248]] 13:04, 29 March 2023 (UTC)Bumpf
	:Would this meta-analysis of all science satisfy Life Goal #28 (assuming it's rejected, as it probably should be)? [[User:Barmar\|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar\|talk]]) 15:29, 29 March 2023 (UTC)		:Would this meta-analysis of all science satisfy Life Goal #28 (assuming it's rejected, as it probably should be)? [[User:Barmar\|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar\|talk]]) 15:29, 29 March 2023 (UTC)
		+
		+
		+	[[Special:Contributions/172.70.251.39\|172.70.251.39]] 07:01, 30 March 2023 (UTC)
		+	'''SCIENCE IS HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT'''
		+
		+	If we (i) postulate that the picture of page 53,589 of the meta-analysis of all science is a representative sample, and if we (ii) postulate that the model of the meta-analysis is just simple random sampling, without stratification (and I think that is a reasonable guess, since if you really have data of ALL science or want to make an assumption about ALL science based on a sample, then Simple random sampling is okay since weighting of different scientific disciplines is proportional to the number of studies in your sample, SRS guarantees getting an unbiased estimate ...), and if we (iii) postulate that the study-specific variance is independent from the single-study means, we can approximately calculate the correct confidence interval.
		+
		+	Let's do it: The authors say that the weighted least square estimator of the population mean is 0.17. The picture shows 11 studies. I eye-balled the effects being (-0.125; 0.5; 0.375; 0.75; -0.375; 3.75; 0.125; 1.25; 0; 0.55; -0,2) and calculated the "between study standard deviation" (using Excel ) being 1.146 and the mean of that sub-sample being 0.6. (Remark: We can ignore the within study variation, since the dominating source of variation is "between studies" and the within error is enclosed in "between study stddev" due to error propagation). Of course, data analysis can be done with a mixed model with clustered data, but doing an analysis with the study means will give a very good approximation.
		+
		+	Now, first step is to calculate the confidence interval of the mean effect size based on the studies we see. We have 11 studies, 10 degrees of freedom. Assuming a t-distribution the (unweighted) 95% confidence interval of the studies in the picture is
		+	0.6 +/- [2.228*1.146/sqrt(11)] = 0.6 +/- 0.77 = [-0.17, 1.37]
		+
		+	The C.I. includes zero but also includes the full meta study mean of 0.17. So, we have no evidence against our hypothesis that page 53,589 which we see on the website is representative for the full meta analysis. So, we can go on
		+
		+	The 95% confidence interval for ALL studies assuming a number of around 250,000 studies would be
		+	0.17 +/- [1.96*1.146/sqrt(250000)] = 0.17 +/- 0.00572 = [0.16428, 0.17572].
		+
		+	The 99.9% confidence interval for ALL studies assuming a number of around 250,000 studies would be
		+	0.17 +/- [3.3*1.146/sqrt(250000)] = 0.17 +/- 0.00756 = [0.16244, 0.17756].
		+
		+	meaning, on average SCIENCE IS HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT (p<0.001)

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:16, 29 March 2023
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	scroll box location is ~25.5% down track: scroll box is 10px high, scrollbar is 290px high, 54px above box, 226px below = center of scrollbox is 59/231 = 25.541..% = ~209,815 pages of total studies. Adjusted to 210,000 to account for rounding errors. (Plus the scroll box might not even move a pixel for a number of pages).[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41\|162.158.146.41]]		scroll box location is ~25.5% down track: scroll box is 10px high, scrollbar is 290px high, 54px above box, 226px below = center of scrollbox is 59/231 = 25.541..% = ~209,815 pages of total studies. Adjusted to 210,000 to account for rounding errors. (Plus the scroll box might not even move a pixel for a number of pages).[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41\|162.158.146.41]]
		+	: Wait, if the scrollbar is 290px high, then shouldn't the position be 59/290 = 20.345%? It looks a lot more like 1/5th down than 1/4th down to my eyes. --[[User:Orion205\|Orion205]] ([[User talk:Orion205\|talk]]) 17:16, 29 March 2023 (UTC)

	Did anyone notice the asterisk next to one of the graph elements? There's got to be a lot of those... Not all scientific studies (I would say very few) can be boiled down to a single numerical output.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41\|162.158.146.41]]		Did anyone notice the asterisk next to one of the graph elements? There's got to be a lot of those... Not all scientific studies (I would say very few) can be boiled down to a single numerical output.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.146.41\|162.158.146.41]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:03, 29 March 2023
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	Unless I misunderstand this, there's also an aspect of this that's due to sign - because some studies of some outcomes expect negative results, and some expect positive, mixing even results that are overall statistically significant may cause the effects to cancel out.		Unless I misunderstand this, there's also an aspect of this that's due to sign - because some studies of some outcomes expect negative results, and some expect positive, mixing even results that are overall statistically significant may cause the effects to cancel out.
	[[User:Mattwigway\|Mattwigway]] ([[User talk:Mattwigway\|talk]]) 15:32, 28 March 2023 (UTC)		[[User:Mattwigway\|Mattwigway]] ([[User talk:Mattwigway\|talk]]) 15:32, 28 March 2023 (UTC)
		+	:I think that could be squared[[User:Tier666\|Tier666]] ([[User talk:Tier666\|talk]]) 17:03, 29 March 2023 (UTC)