Talk:2971: Celestial Event - Revision history

172.71.8.40 at 02:23, 27 November 2024

2024-11-27T02:23:15Z

These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For: Quiz.

2024-08-26T01:09:28Z

Quiz.

172.71.26.46 at 04:31, 23 August 2024

2024-08-23T04:31:35Z

42.book.addict at 23:58, 22 August 2024

2024-08-22T23:58:41Z

162.158.172.188 at 23:52, 22 August 2024

2024-08-22T23:52:03Z

172.70.58.4 at 23:26, 16 August 2024

2024-08-16T23:26:38Z

RadiantRainwing at 23:02, 16 August 2024

2024-08-16T23:02:09Z

RadiantRainwing at 23:01, 16 August 2024

2024-08-16T23:01:30Z

AnnapolisKen: response

2024-08-15T14:05:34Z

response

172.70.85.30 at 08:52, 15 August 2024

2024-08-15T08:52:08Z

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	Now calculate the odds that a science fiction story will be published that places such an occurrence in our current timeframe. [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|talk]]) 01:09, 26 August 2024 (UTC)		Now calculate the odds that a science fiction story will be published that places such an occurrence in our current timeframe. [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|talk]]) 01:09, 26 August 2024 (UTC)
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		+	Can we have a category for comics like these that (ab)use dimensional analysis and unit cancellation? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.8.40\|172.71.8.40]] 02:23, 27 November 2024 (UTC)

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	:I think you're talking of applying the Least Common Multiple (the lowest value that is an integer multiple of all individual integer values). Though the answer to that (for all element pairs that don't already have a 1:n relation) can rely upon the base unit involved. Something that's every four months with something every seven months coincides every twenty-eight months. But every year will have (at least one of) each happening. And, as you point out, the situation may ''never'' coincide at the day level (the first happens every first week of the given month, the second happens on the third of its own months, or one only happens on the nearest Tuesday and the other on the Wednesday).		:I think you're talking of applying the Least Common Multiple (the lowest value that is an integer multiple of all individual integer values). Though the answer to that (for all element pairs that don't already have a 1:n relation) can rely upon the base unit involved. Something that's every four months with something every seven months coincides every twenty-eight months. But every year will have (at least one of) each happening. And, as you point out, the situation may ''never'' coincide at the day level (the first happens every first week of the given month, the second happens on the third of its own months, or one only happens on the nearest Tuesday and the other on the Wednesday).
	:What we have here is the combined product, which can be divided by the Highest Common Factor to give the LCM, but only once we agree into what we're factoring (by year, day, hour, the length of a typical eclipse, the second...), and then deal with issues of mutually-missing pairs of 'matchable but offset' cycles. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.46\|172.71.26.46]] 04:31, 23 August 2024 (UTC)		:What we have here is the combined product, which can be divided by the Highest Common Factor to give the LCM, but only once we agree into what we're factoring (by year, day, hour, the length of a typical eclipse, the second...), and then deal with issues of mutually-missing pairs of 'matchable but offset' cycles. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.46\|172.71.26.46]] 04:31, 23 August 2024 (UTC)
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		+	Now calculate the odds that a science fiction story will be published that places such an occurrence in our current timeframe. [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For\|talk]]) 01:09, 26 August 2024 (UTC)

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	I may be nitpicking, but the event happening each 50 years and one happening each 350 years are mutually paraller, as in either they happen both every 350 years, or they never happen together at all. You can and possibly should argue that it's not true due to "imprecision with which the periods are recorded", but the proper way to count how often do ALL events occur, is not to count the independent chance over time, but the event offsets from one another, with easiest math if we start from the rarest one.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.172.188\|162.158.172.188]] 23:52, 22 August 2024 (UTC)		I may be nitpicking, but the event happening each 50 years and one happening each 350 years are mutually paraller, as in either they happen both every 350 years, or they never happen together at all. You can and possibly should argue that it's not true due to "imprecision with which the periods are recorded", but the proper way to count how often do ALL events occur, is not to count the independent chance over time, but the event offsets from one another, with easiest math if we start from the rarest one.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.172.188\|162.158.172.188]] 23:52, 22 August 2024 (UTC)
		+	:I think you're talking of applying the Least Common Multiple (the lowest value that is an integer multiple of all individual integer values). Though the answer to that (for all element pairs that don't already have a 1:n relation) can rely upon the base unit involved. Something that's every four months with something every seven months coincides every twenty-eight months. But every year will have (at least one of) each happening. And, as you point out, the situation may ''never'' coincide at the day level (the first happens every first week of the given month, the second happens on the third of its own months, or one only happens on the nearest Tuesday and the other on the Wednesday).
		+	:What we have here is the combined product, which can be divided by the Highest Common Factor to give the LCM, but only once we agree into what we're factoring (by year, day, hour, the length of a typical eclipse, the second...), and then deal with issues of mutually-missing pairs of 'matchable but offset' cycles. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.26.46\|172.71.26.46]] 04:31, 23 August 2024 (UTC)

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 But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]? {{unsigned|RadiantRainwing|23:01, 16 August 2024}}
+:a blue supermoon could be seen on monday, which is an xkcd upload day, and that happens every 10 years… [[User:42.book.addict|42.book.addict]] ([[User talk:42.book.addict|talk]]) 23:58, 22 August 2024 (UTC)
 I may be nitpicking, but the event happening each 50 years and one happening each 350 years are mutually paraller, as in either they happen both every 350 years, or they never happen together at all. You can and possibly should argue that it's not true due to "imprecision with which the periods are recorded", but the proper way to count how often do ALL events occur, is not to count the independent chance over time, but the event offsets from one another, with easiest math if we start from the rarest one.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.172.188|162.158.172.188]] 23:52, 22 August 2024 (UTC)

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	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]? {{unsigned\|RadiantRainwing\|23:01, 16 August 2024}}		But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]? {{unsigned\|RadiantRainwing\|23:01, 16 August 2024}}
		+
		+
		+	I may be nitpicking, but the event happening each 50 years and one happening each 350 years are mutually paraller, as in either they happen both every 350 years, or they never happen together at all. You can and possibly should argue that it's not true due to "imprecision with which the periods are recorded", but the proper way to count how often do ALL events occur, is not to count the independent chance over time, but the event offsets from one another, with easiest math if we start from the rarest one.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.172.188\|162.158.172.188]] 23:52, 22 August 2024 (UTC)

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	:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)		:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)

−	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]?	+	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]? {{unsigned\|RadiantRainwing\|23:01, 16 August 2024}}

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	:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)		:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)

−	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [xkcd.com xkcd comic]?	+	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [https://xkcd.com/ xkcd comic]?

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	Someone has to say it. The explanation is so long and convoluted that it serves substantially more to confuse than to explain. Someone please edit it mercilessly. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.62\|172.69.33.62]] 05:14, 15 August 2024 (UTC)		Someone has to say it. The explanation is so long and convoluted that it serves substantially more to confuse than to explain. Someone please edit it mercilessly. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.62\|172.69.33.62]] 05:14, 15 August 2024 (UTC)
	:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)		:I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211\|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)
		+
		+	But the question is, will the superevent coincide with the release of an [xkcd.com xkcd comic]?

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 :: Agreed! Also, it seems like the article should have a footnote or separate section going full Randall, "Based only on the data given in this cartoon, what is the possible range of Randall Munroe's home location?" --[[User:AnnapolisKen|AnnapolisKen]] ([[User talk:AnnapolisKen|talk]]) 18:21, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
 ::: Speculating about people's addresses online is generally frowned upon, in court if nowhere else. [[Special:Contributions/172.68.14.183|172.68.14.183]] 00:50, 14 August 2024 (UTC)
 Are all of these events really statistically independent or are e.g. active northern lights and cicada mergence more or less likely to happen at the same time of the year? {{unsigned ip|172.68.194.201|06:15, 13 August 2024}}

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 Don't know how it could be calculated in, but there's a fundamental conflict between the solar eclipse and aurora borealis. Solar eclipses are only visible during the day {{cn}}, but the aurorae aren't symmetrical around the poles and drag further equator-ward on the night side of the planet. So the occurrences of Northern lights that would reach to Boston latitudes on the *day side* of the planet so as to be visible during a solar eclipse would be much, much rarer (closer to Carrington-event rarity, currently pitched at once every 100 to 1000 years instead of the 11 Randall used, but even then it'd have to be a particularly strong event). [[Special:Contributions/172.70.230.142|172.70.230.142]] 13:34, 14 August 2024 (UTC)
 If he had included all these events happening on a Tuesday or a Thursday then we're getting close to 1 every 14 billion years.  A time which everyone's neighbourhoods had a really big show. [[User:Kev|Kev]] ([[User talk:Kev|talk]]) 02:36, 15 August 2024 (UTC)
 Someone has to say it. The explanation is so long and convoluted that it serves substantially more to confuse than to explain. Someone please edit it mercilessly. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.62|172.69.33.62]] 05:14, 15 August 2024 (UTC)
 :I bit the bullet. I'm sure I left some important stuff out, but more sure I deleted more unimportant stuff. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.146.211|172.71.146.211]] 06:24, 15 August 2024 (UTC)