# 1281: Minifigs

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 Minifigs Title text: The LEGO Group is already the world's largest tire manufacturer.

## Explanation

Lego minifigures (often abbreviated as minifigs) are tiny plastic people designed by the Danish toy manufacturer Lego as part of their construction toy sets. Since 1978, over four billion minifigures have been sold, so they still have a long way to go before they surpass the human population (which is around 8 billion). The figures resemble simplified humans, often with a yellow skin color and featuring interchangeable body parts, such as legs, torsos, heads, hair, and hats.

The graph depicted in the comic extrapolates the total number of minifigures and compares it to the growth of the world population, which reached 7 billion in March 2012. By the extrapolations of the comic, Lego minifigures will outnumber the human population by 2019. The extrapolation of statistical data has appeared in various xkcd comics, e.g. in 605: Extrapolating, 1007: Sustainable, and 1204: Detail. However, unlike the other extrapolated scenarios, the prognosis of this comic seems quite likely.

Since Lego is designed to resemble nature and civilization on a miniaturized scale, some sets also contain Lego cars as vehicles for the minifigures. With over 381 million Lego tires produced for these miniature cars, Lego is already the world's largest manufacturer of tires. This fact is addressed in the title text.

Lego (as of mid-October 2013) calculates they have made 7 billion+ figures. Earlier in 2013, they believed they would surpass the human count in 2014, but revised their numbers on the day this comic was released to what this chart says. (In 2019, there were 7.7 billion people and 7.9 billion minifigs, so this was true.)

## Transcript

[Graph: x-axis 1980, 1990, 2010, 2020; y-axis 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 billions.]
[Plot-line 1: Number of people in the world.]
[Plot-line 2: Number of Lego People in the world.]
[Label above the x-axis at 2013 reads "Today".]
[Shortly before 2020, both plot lines cross.]
[Caption below the graph:]
By 2019, humans will be outnumbered.

# Discussion

This is my first time at trying to explain something. Even if it's replaced by a better one, I hope it gets the point across.

Cheers!

189.186.138.149 05:34, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Your explanation looks good (perhaps somebody changed it, though). I am happy for you. Welcome to.the community. You are the type of people that make wikis great.
Zyxuvius (talk) 17:06, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Related question: what is the current population of Teddy bears? And what about Barbies? -- Hkmaly (talk) 08:44, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Might Mattel be the world's largest shoe maker? 67.51.59.66 16:06, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

Then we are just waiting for a Wikipedian to remove the comparison of tires manufactures as Wikipedia is not the place for random facts appearing in XKCD comics. Pmakholm (talk) 10:17, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

The information in the Wikipedia article on Lego tires, including the random fact that in 2011 it was the world's largest tire manufacturer, has been there since May 2012 -boB (talk) 13:30, 23 October 2013 (UTC)

I, for one, welcome our new Lego overlords.83.227.33.35 01:16, 24 October 2013 (UTC)

Just a suggestion for discussion: instead of the final phrase of the second paragraph saying "the prognosis of this comic seems quite likely", I think "the prognosis of this comic seems at least possible if not highly likely" as the point of the previous extrapolations is that they were unwarranted/probably impossible, not just unlikely. Grahame (talk) 04:34, 24 October 2013 (UTC)Grahame

I find it extremely surprising (to the point of incredulity) that the human population has been growing linearly 115.111.223.59 06:19, 24 October 2013 (UTC) FirstTimeUserAmIDoingThisRight?

The comic is correct, it's nearly linear at that time range. Look here: world population.--Dgbrt (talk) 12:11, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
The graph you link to has a logarithmic scale for population, so the straight lines represent exponential growth. Randall's graph has a linear population scale, so the lines should have the form of an exponential function. 198.91.149.86 12:47, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
Ups, but at that data ranges it doesn't make a big difference. Look at page 21 here: UN PDF dokument.--Dgbrt (talk) 13:28, 24 October 2013 (UTC)

Has Randall taken into account that some of the manufactured lego minifigs have been destroyed? If not, then the number of minifigs should be compared to the number of humans that has ever been born, not only to those still alive today...(Maybe a billion or more of the minifigs have been destroyed?) Kynde (talk) 17:45, 24 October 2013 (UTC)

Nice point. The Number of humans who have ever lived is estimated around 100 billions in total. But Randall compares the "Number of people in the world" with the "Number of Lego People in the world", so a good guess on the number of destroyed minifigs is needed. I think it's more likely about the half of the entire production.--Dgbrt (talk) 18:56, 24 October 2013 (UTC)
Not sure that I completely agree. Keep in mind that a thrown out Lego minifigure will continue to exist for thousands of years (the same can be said of a dismembered one) while a buried or dismembered human will decompose within a few generations (with the occasional exception). Given that, it's fair to assume that every minifigure ever created still exists, while only the humans born in the past 200 years continue to do so.154.20.80.41 04:20, 25 October 2013 (UTC)
Has anyone here actually managed to destroy a minfig? I myself have only ever broken an arm or two, which leaves the minifigure mostly intact. I suppose you could melt it down, but most people who would have a reason to (i.e. to use as ink in a 3D printer) would just buy non-LEGOified plastic, as it's cheaper.108.162.215.30 21:30, 9 February 2014 (UTC)
Do you still count humans who have been permanently embalmed? (And how do minifigs that have been kragl'd compare?) 162.158.255.52 09:36, 23 September 2015 (UTC)

This strikes me as having a curious overlap with The Simulation Argument: If it is possible for technology to ever allow a civilization's members to casually run simulated universes, or even worlds, on their personal computers, then eventually there would be more human beings living in simulated worlds than the real one, meaning that (in an abstract sense that does not really conform strictly with the science of probability) it is more likely that WE are in a simulation, than in the real, original universe containing the simulations. — Kazvorpal (talk) 16:09, 16 December 2016 (UTC)

Is the LEGO Group the largest manufacturer of tires by mass, or just raw numbers? 21:59, 2 June 2021 (UTC)

## Are we out numbered yet?

It's 2019 bois and girls. Let's see if they outnumber us. 162.158.246.22 04:08, 3 January 2019 (UTC)

They recently celebrated the 40th anniversary of minifigs, but there was no mention in the press release of how many have been produced to date (unlike the 25th anniversary press release, which makes me wonder whether they are saving this up for a big announcement soon... (If they don't do a press release when the number of minifigs overtakes the human population then they're missing out on some good publicity) 141.101.98.124 14:29, 3 January 2019 (UTC)
Search conducted on 2019-12-30: No new data found to whether or not we are outnumbered yet. Happy new year, everybody. --162.158.210.58 14:28, 30 December 2019 (UTC)
In a 2015 fact sheet, Lego said they made 5 billion minifigs. In another report, Lego said that they made 725 million minifigs in 2015. By the end of 2019, that would be 7.9 billion minifigs (assuming constant production). The UN says there were 7.8 billion people in the world in 2019. So Randall's prediction for 2019 came true.
Afraid not chaps, here is a link showing that only four billion by 2020 as seen here, so it seems they have yet to outnumber us, here is to another 11-ish years of being dominant! -- Jnutlikesxkcd (talk) 05:29, 22 July 2024 (please sign your comments with ~~~~)