Editing 1570: Engineer Syllogism
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#Therefore, I am good at understanding the stock market | #Therefore, I am good at understanding the stock market | ||
β | Since most engineers are purportedly good at math, proposition 1 seems to be true. It is also loosely true that the {{w|stock market}} is made of numbers, but only in the sense that every system can be given a post-hoc numeric characterization; the dynamics of the stock market are primarily human-driven. In this comic Cueball thinks that his skill at math will help him beat the stock market. Little does he know that the system can be unpredictable, so he ends up losing money as the financial instrument he's invested in loses value. This is due to the financial markets being largely controlled by humans making emotional decisions and not some calculable reason or logic. | + | Since most engineers are purportedly good at math, proposition 1 seems to be true. It is also loosely true that the {{w|stock market}} is made of numbers, but only in the sense that every system can be given a post-hoc numeric characterization; the dynamics of the stock market are primarily human-driven. In this comic Cueball thinks that his skill at math will help him beat the stock market. Little does he know that the system can be unpredictable, so he ends up losing money as the financial instrument he's invested in loses value. This is due to the financial markets being largely controlled by humans making emotional decisions and not some calculable reason or logic. The fact that humans make emotional decisions is alluded to in the [[title text]] of [[592: Drama]]. |
Even if the propositions "I am good at understanding numbers" and "The stock market is made of numbers" were true in Cueball's interpretation, Cueball would still be wrong to conclude that "I am good at understanding the stock market": this would be a {{w|fallacy of the undistributed middle}} (with the first premise being more accurately stated as "I'm good at understanding things made of numbers") and a {{w|fallacy of composition}} (with the implicit third premise "if I'm good at understanding the components of a system, then I'm good at understanding the system"). The problem is that proposition 1 seems to say "I am good at understanding all math". However, the "all" is not present, so Cueball may not necessarily understand the math underlying the stock market. | Even if the propositions "I am good at understanding numbers" and "The stock market is made of numbers" were true in Cueball's interpretation, Cueball would still be wrong to conclude that "I am good at understanding the stock market": this would be a {{w|fallacy of the undistributed middle}} (with the first premise being more accurately stated as "I'm good at understanding things made of numbers") and a {{w|fallacy of composition}} (with the implicit third premise "if I'm good at understanding the components of a system, then I'm good at understanding the system"). The problem is that proposition 1 seems to say "I am good at understanding all math". However, the "all" is not present, so Cueball may not necessarily understand the math underlying the stock market. |