Difference between revisions of "2107: Launch Risk"

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{{comic
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== YOU CENSOR THE TRUTH. SOON IT SHALL BE REVEALED ==
| number    = 2107
 
| date      = February 4, 2019
 
| title    = Launch Risk
 
| image    = launch_risk.png
 
| titletext = Don't worry--you're less likely to die from a space launch than from a shark attack. The survival rate is pretty high for both!
 
}}
 
 
 
==Explanation==
 
This comic deals with statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, when the people in question are in a smaller group with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts.
 
 
 
A capsule is about to be launched into space. On the left side, there is an announcement: "T-MINUS 20...19..." The "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to be launched. T minus 20 indicate 20 seconds before the launch, so it's basically a countdown for 20 seconds before the rocket is launched. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second one pretends to feel nervous. The first one offers the supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected as an astronaut.  Such "more likely to be struck by lightning" comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular risk is very remote, and thus should not be considered particularly frightening.
 
 
 
The second one agrees with the first one for a moment, but then realizes that something is wrong with the argument. He says "Oh, that's a good-" which is likely "Oh, that's a good comforting comparison".  Presumably, they realize that the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point -- they are there because they ''already have'' been selected as an astronaut. That's why the first one's intention is more likely trolling than being really caring about the second one's nervousness. His words are only causing more confusion for the second one, that highlights the humorousness of the comic. The relevant concern is the risk level faced by an astronaut, given that they already hold that position. Unfortunately, the historical record shows that this risk is somewhat high, certainly far above the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning.
 
 
 
The lifetime odds of being struck by lightning are approximately 1 in 14,600 (approximately 10% of those struck by lightning are killed) [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds How Dangerous is Lightning?]. 
 
 
 
The title text refers to another common comparison, the risk of a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being rather rare, they are also not as likely to kill the victim as is commonly assumed. Most people attacked by sharks, and most people launched into space, live through the experience.  However, it remains true that both are considerably riskier than most common activities like car accident (1 in 583 deaths) or unintentional poisoning (1 in 70 deaths).
 
([https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk])
 
Of the 557 people who who have been in Earth orbit, 18 (3%) have died in related accidents, not specifically at launch([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents List of spaceflight-related accidents and incidents], [https://www.worldspaceflight.com/bios/stats.php Astronaut/Cosmonaut Statistics]).  Of the 93 incidents logged for 2018 in the [http://www.sharkattackfile.net/index.htm Global Shark Attack File], 4 (4.3%) were fatal, but the statistic has been higher in the past when there has likely been less education against provoking sharks.
 
 
 
A tall rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures.  However launch controllers monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely.
 
 
 
A spacecraft launch can trigger lightning, by creating a conductive path through charge bearing clouds.  Apollo 12 was struck by triggered lightning twice during launch phase. Thankfully backup systems allowed the flight to proceed. For more information, see [https://www.nasa.gov/audience/foreducators/9-12/features/F_Lightning_and_Launches_9_12.html NASA: Lightning and Launches]
 
 
 
The perceived value of risk is a recurring topic and is also featured in [[795: Conditional Risk]] and [[1252: Increased Risk]].
 
 
 
==Transcript==
 
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
 
 
 
:[A rocket is about to launch.]
 
:Astronaut 1: How you feeling?
 
:Astronaut 2: Honestly, pretty nervous.
 
:Astronaut 1: I know it seems dangerous, but just remember: you're more likely to be struck by ''lightning'' than to be selected to become an astronaut.
 
:Astronaut 2: Oh that's a good-
 
:Astronaut 2: ...Wait.
 
:Countdown: T-Minus 20...19...
 
 
 
 
 
{{comic discussion}}
 
[[Category:Statistics]]
 
[[Category:Space]]
 

Revision as of 16:48, 5 February 2019

YOU CENSOR THE TRUTH. SOON IT SHALL BE REVEALED