Editing 2379: Probability Comparisons
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| This probability combines two events. | | This probability combines two events. | ||
β | First, the probability that a random 10-digit telephone number belongs to Obama is 1/10<sup>10</sup>. This ignores potential complications from Obama owning multiple phones or failing to answer personally (perhaps using an assistant or answering machine). Additionally, it assumes numbers are dialed at random rather than making more intelligent guesses | + | First, the probability that a random 10-digit telephone number belongs to Obama is 1/10<sup>10</sup>. This ignores potential complications from Obama owning multiple phones or failing to answer personally (perhaps using an assistant or answering machine). Additionally, it assumes numbers are dialed at random rather than making more intelligent guesses like using likely addresses to guess area codes. |
Second, the probability of a magnitude 8 California quake is given in a previous entry as 0.2% per year. Although the time window for an earthquake to "just occur" is not given, a 15 minute window corresponds (within rounding error) to the total probability given. | Second, the probability of a magnitude 8 California quake is given in a previous entry as 0.2% per year. Although the time window for an earthquake to "just occur" is not given, a 15 minute window corresponds (within rounding error) to the total probability given. |