Editing 2545: Bayes' Theorem
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For this same example, the Bayesian formula gives : | For this same example, the Bayesian formula gives : | ||
| β | + | P( Affected | Positive ) = P( Positive | Affected ) * P( Affected ) / P( Positive ) = 100% * 0.1% / 1% = 10% | |
| β | + | and P( Unaffected | Positive ) = P( Positive | Unaffected ) * P( Unaffected ) / P( Positive ) = 0.9009% * 99.9% / 1% = 90% | |
In this comic, a teacher is presenting a problem which the students are supposed to use Bayes' theorem to solve. However, the off-panel student knows that they are studying Bayes' theorem, so they use that prior knowledge to guess the usual answer to such problems. The punch line is the caption - The student doesn't need to do the calculation because they're familiar with questions involving Bayes' theorem and how they often present the counterintuitive result to illustrate the importance of prevalence to the calculation. | In this comic, a teacher is presenting a problem which the students are supposed to use Bayes' theorem to solve. However, the off-panel student knows that they are studying Bayes' theorem, so they use that prior knowledge to guess the usual answer to such problems. The punch line is the caption - The student doesn't need to do the calculation because they're familiar with questions involving Bayes' theorem and how they often present the counterintuitive result to illustrate the importance of prevalence to the calculation. | ||
