Editing 2652: Proxy Variable

{{comic
| number    = 2652
| date      = July 29, 2022
| title     = Proxy Variable 
| image     = proxy_variable.png
| titletext = Our work has produced great answers. Now someone just needs to figure out which questions they go with.
}}

__NOTOC__

==Explanation==
In this comic, [[Hairy]] is discussing use of a proxy variable with [[Cueball]]. In statistics, a {{w|proxy variable}} is used as a stand-in for one or more other variables that are difficult to measure. In order to be useful as such, proxy variables must be correlated with what they are intended to represent. For example, a drug might aim to reduce deaths from a slow-acting disease. But testing if it reduces deaths might take many years, so researchers might test for a proxy outcome instead, like whether the drug appears to mitigate loss of bone density or cell-damage. Physicians use blood pressure as one of many proxies for cardiovascular health.

Hairy is dismissing the question of whether they are studying the right variable as too expensive to answer. This is deeply ironic and thus satirical, because good {{w|experiment design}} requires sufficient attention to the robustness of all the involved parts of an experiment, even if the expense may be prohibitive. This comic might be referring to the recent discovery of [https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease nearly two decades] of allegedly fraudulent {{w|Alzheimer's disease}} research supporting a mistaken proxy hypothesis.

Choosing the wrong proxy variable might make the research misleading, irrelevant, or as the title text suggests, answer the wrong question. Separating correlation from {{w|Causality|causation}} is necessary when interpreting proxy variable results to make sure the question they answer is known. Mere correlation instead of {{w|Causal analysis|authentic causation}} yields weaker results. {{w|Exploratory causal analysis}} can assist with finding useful proxy variables, but is difficult for the layperson to interpret and can be misleading, because even if performed correctly, a {{w|combinatorial explosion}} of possible proxy variables can make traditional {{w|statistical significance}} analysis fail, requiring {{w|F-score}}s or similar measures. The history of pharmaceutical research is largely a graveyard of failed proxy hypotheses; that is one of the reasons for [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa experiment registration regulations.]

The title text's notion of having an answer without knowing the actual question could also be be a reference to the classic comedy science fiction novel {{w|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy}}, where in one scene Earth turns out to be a supercomputer built for the purpose of figuring out the question for the answer "42."

=== Examples of noteworthy proxy variables ===

<!-- recap -->* Loss of bone density or damage to cells for toxicity 
* Blood pressure for cardiovascular health
* Amyloid markers for Alzheimer's disease 

* Local temperature for global warming severity
* GDP growth for development (demolishing a hospital adds to GDP but subtracts from development)
* Money supply size for price inflation (see e.g. the {{w|paradox of thrift}})
* {{W|Carbonic anhydrase}} expression for carbon sequestration
* Asphalt production for carbon sequestration 
* Proportion renewable energy for carbon reduction (see {{w|Jevons paradox}})
* Dialytic {{w|desalination}} for carbon sequestration[https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B73LgocyHQnfV1Q4VE45RmFFeFlPSDlKalctVS1nRlYyY3lR/view?usp=sharing&resourcekey=0-3YeR9jAkROsI0YLf4_07GQ][https://drive.google.com/file/d/14igVdhaIhrbHVTN5lI3XfxgNWPsvjNa7]
* {{w|Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis}} application for mosquito abatement

==Transcript== 
:[Cueball is looking at Hairy who points a pointer to a poster. On the poster there is a line graph at the top and below that a candlestick chart. The line graph appears to show a time series with a question mark inside a ellipsoid at the end of the curve. The candlestick chart shows a box-and-whiskers plot comparing two variables. There is no readable text except the question mark. Hairy's stick points just below the line chart.]
:Hairy: We want to study this variable, but it's too hard to observe.
:Poster: ?

:[In a slim panel only Hairy and the poster are shown. His pointer now points to the left variable in the box-and-whiskers plot,]
:Hairy: So we're studying this proxy variable.
:Poster: ?

:[Back to Cueball and Hairy with the poster out of frame. Hairy holds the pointer down by his side.]
:Cueball: Is it correlated with the other variable?
:Hairy: Look, we don't have the funding to answer every little question.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Hairy]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
[[Category:Charts]]
[[Category:Scientific research]]