Difference between revisions of "628: Psychic"

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The title text appeals again to statistics. People are poor [http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/05/is-17-the-most-random-number/ random-number generators]—e.g. being less likely to pick numbers at the extremes or exactly in the middle. Knowing this, the 'psychic' could restrict his guesses accordingly, improving his odds of guessing correctly.
 
The title text appeals again to statistics. People are poor [http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/05/is-17-the-most-random-number/ random-number generators]—e.g. being less likely to pick numbers at the extremes or exactly in the middle. Knowing this, the 'psychic' could restrict his guesses accordingly, improving his odds of guessing correctly.
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[[Randall]] has made several smaller references to the number 42 as the answer to the ultimate question about the universe from Douglas Adams Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy (for instance in [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/1/1c/42_coins.PNG this message] from [[1608: Hoverboard]], and the vision test in [[1213: Combination Vision Test]]. This could be the reason he chose 42+1 as his guess. He both knows Megan, and knows that she knows him. So thinking that he may suspect she would choose 42, she thus adds one, to not choose that exact number... Cueball took a similar reasoning based on his knowledge of Megan and himself, and was lucky this time. Maybe thus increasing his chance to more than 1% as from the title text.
  
 
==Transcript==
 
==Transcript==
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==Trivia==
 
==Trivia==
 
*This comic has a clear resemblance to the [[:Category:My Hobby|My Hobby]] series. This would also make it clear the Cueball in this comic is actually [[Randall]].
 
*This comic has a clear resemblance to the [[:Category:My Hobby|My Hobby]] series. This would also make it clear the Cueball in this comic is actually [[Randall]].
*See also [[525: I Know You're Listening]] and [[2203: Prescience]] for similar use of guessing that if correct will make people surprised.
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*See also [[525: I Know You're Listening]], [[858: Milk]] and [[2203: Prescience]] for similar use of guessing that if correct will make people surprised.
  
  

Latest revision as of 13:04, 18 September 2019

Psychic
You can do a lot better than 1% if you start keeping track of the patterns in what numbers people pick.
Title text: You can do a lot better than 1% if you start keeping track of the patterns in what numbers people pick.

Explanation[edit]

A psychic is a person who is able to access information that is beyond normal sensory perception through extrasensory perception. This information may vary widely in scope and value, ranging from archaeological to the ability to read minds. Cueball describes himself as such a person, to which Megan responds with disbelief because it is a bold and unsupported claim. To prove his abilities, Cueball has Megan think of a random number from 1 to 100, which he then guesses correctly to demonstrate his ability to read minds. Megan is amazed that Cueball was correct, but he simply dismisses her disbelief and wants to go back to pretending to lead a normal life.

The four panels are actually a setup to the real joke in this comic: the final sentence spoken by a narrator. It reveals that Cueball has simply played a trick on Megan and that anyone can repeat it. The joke is that, theoretically, a person can guess a random number from 1 to 100 once in one hundred tries, or 1% of the time, according to the law of large numbers. By playing this trick enough times on enough friends, the trickster is statistically likely to get a number right eventually. Assuming the person whose number he guesses is not familiar with the trick, it will appear as if the trickster is actually psychic. Should this happen, the trickster can then play the joke out as he wants, hence the "it's totally worth it" at the end.

The title text appeals again to statistics. People are poor random-number generators—e.g. being less likely to pick numbers at the extremes or exactly in the middle. Knowing this, the 'psychic' could restrict his guesses accordingly, improving his odds of guessing correctly.

Randall has made several smaller references to the number 42 as the answer to the ultimate question about the universe from Douglas Adams Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy (for instance in this message from 1608: Hoverboard, and the vision test in 1213: Combination Vision Test. This could be the reason he chose 42+1 as his guess. He both knows Megan, and knows that she knows him. So thinking that he may suspect she would choose 42, she thus adds one, to not choose that exact number... Cueball took a similar reasoning based on his knowledge of Megan and himself, and was lucky this time. Maybe thus increasing his chance to more than 1% as from the title text.

Transcript[edit]

[Cueball is talking with Megan.]
Cueball: I'm psychic, you know.
Megan: There's no such thing.
[In a frame-less panel they continue to talk.]
Cueball: Okay, think of a number from one to one hundred.
Megan: Okay.
Cueball: 43.
Megan: Holy shit!
[Cueball lifts one hand towards Mega.]
Cueball: I try not to let it affect my life too much.
Megan: Wait, I can't believe this.
[Cueball turns and walks away, but stretches his arm back out towards Megan, who is still just standing looking after him.]
Cueball: Don't worry about it. Forget I said anything.
Megan: But-
Cueball: Let's get to the movie.
Megan: I, uh... OK, sure.
[Caption below the last two panels:]
This trick may only work 1% of the time, but when it does, it's totally worth it.

Trivia[edit]


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Discussion

Tip: No one picks 50. 75.69.96.225 01:35, 14 March 2013 (UTC)

The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything is 42. This comic is wrong ;) --Dgbrt (talk) 18:52, 6 October 2013 (UTC)

Interestingly, it appears Megan was trying to trip Cueball up. The obvious choice would have been "42", a number with very geeky connotations, to say the least. Megan may have thought of it immediately, known Cueball would suspect, and gone for the next higher number, 43. Of course, Cueball was smart enough to realize this simple trick, and knew Megan was, too. So he won anyway. 173.245.54.91 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

I seems that 37 (or 73) would be most not-random random. Though I cannot say, that sources are 100% reliable: [1] [2] 141.101.88.219 08:57, 15 May 2015 (UTC) Koovert

Wait, if Cueball's probability to pick a specific number is 1/100 and Megan's probability to pick a specific number is also 1/100, wouldn't the probability of their picks being the same be 0.01%? --Jogerj (talk) 02:11, 12 August 2015 (UTC)

Yes, now multiply it by 100 because there can be 100 specific numbers. Anachor (talk) 10:17, 27 August 2015 (UTC)
No, because you only have to have one of them match the other, not both of them match a number from some other source.173.245.54.34 07:07, 30 August 2015 (UTC)

Ooh, so the 17 thing is real after all! I've long since spotted it, but was never sure whether it's objective or just me preferentially noticing this number. Man, it feels good to be vindicated. 141.101.104.82 05:11, 26 April 2016 (UTC)