Difference between revisions of "Talk:1299: I Don't Own a TV"

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The "this is incomplete because it needs further information" is not much of an explanation of what needs to be completed. It looks like the tag was added when the explanation was really, really poor and it't now obsolete. I would update it if I could figure out something that is still missing, but at this moment it looks like removing it altogether could be a better option. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.53.117|173.245.53.117]] 09:54, 5 December 2013 (UTC)
 
The "this is incomplete because it needs further information" is not much of an explanation of what needs to be completed. It looks like the tag was added when the explanation was really, really poor and it't now obsolete. I would update it if I could figure out something that is still missing, but at this moment it looks like removing it altogether could be a better option. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.53.117|173.245.53.117]] 09:54, 5 December 2013 (UTC)
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: Agreed. Removed. —[[User:TobyBartels|TobyBartels]] ([[User talk:TobyBartels|talk]]) 17:28, 5 December 2013 (UTC)
  
 
I feel quite smug, not having to pay £145.50 a year to watch people wanting to be famous, or wanting to remind people that they used to be famous, screaming for attention on "Strictly Got Talent Factor On Ice Brother" [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.218|141.101.99.218]] 16:06, 5 December 2013 (UTC)
 
I feel quite smug, not having to pay £145.50 a year to watch people wanting to be famous, or wanting to remind people that they used to be famous, screaming for attention on "Strictly Got Talent Factor On Ice Brother" [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.218|141.101.99.218]] 16:06, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

Revision as of 17:28, 5 December 2013

Annual Data for households between 1958-1970 http://www.tvhistory.tv/Annual_TV_Households_50-78.JPG

Plotted next to a fitted logarithmic function http://imgur.com/aVWmQ9z

The negative second derivative of this function http://imgur.com/xywpEJZ

If someone can find more data for television ownership I'd love to see it :) ‎173.245.54.12 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Can someone explain why Randall believes smugness at not owning a television is decreasing? 199.27.128.138 08:31, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Because as TVs become less relevant, people don't feel smug for not owning one. 141.101.99.216 11:44, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Current explanation - logistic curve

The current explanation is total bullshit. The thing with the negative second derivative is just saying, that the more embarrased people are, the more the change of the TV ownership rate will increase, which just means, more and more people will get themselves TVs. The other point of view is, the more smug you will look like for not owning a TV, the more the change of the TV ownership rate will decline, which means, that less and less people are buying TVs.

It has nothing to do with a logistic curve. The function, which second derivative is depicted in this comic is totally irrelevant.

108.162.231.19 08:34, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I have the strong feeling he is talking about a sine wave, not a logistic function. It fits the curve in the comic as well as the condition of f"=-f. Also, it makes way more sense for the smugness to behave like this over time as for the first 30 years TV is culturally extremely significant and you therefore would want to own one in order to participate. But with declining quality of television and the emergence of the internet you might feel as if you were extremely progressive by not owning one anymore.

108.162.254.189 09:25, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Yes, it definitely could be a sine curve. (see: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=d%5E2%2Fdx%5E2%28sin%28x%29%29). If one would neglect the beginning of the function for simplicity, this could be a solution.

108.162.231.19 10:07, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

We bid a tearful farewell to our friend the line break. 141.101.99.216 11:50, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=sin%283*pi*x%2F100%2Bpi%2F2%29+from+1945+to+2014 Xhfz (talk) 12:02, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I agree with the commenter who said that the current explanation is bullshit, but I think he has the cause and effect reversed. Randall is saying that you feel more smug about not owning a TV as a result of observing how quickly TV ownership is becoming more or less trendy. In the 1950's, TV's were catching on quickly and becoming more popular, so you would feel embarrassed for not owning one. Later, the trendiness would start to decline as more people owned one, and you would head towards being smug. In the 2000s, people are giving up TVs because the internet makes them unnecessary. As this happens more and more, there's no point in feeling smug because you're no longer bucking a trend at all. --Kazim (talk) 12:49, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

In my view the title text joke is that smugness is defined as a function of TV ownership when in reality TV ownership is a function of smugness. Ralfoide (talk) 15:18, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Hold on, the logistic curve gives very reasonable graphs both for ownership of TVs and for the negative second derivative. TV ownership easily fits a logistic curve, as it starts at zero and has to approach some upper limit. The negative second derivative has a very similar shape to the graph in the comic. Here's Wolfram|Alpha for the negative second derivative of a generic logistic curve: <http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=-%28+d%2Fdx+d%2Fdx+%28100%2F%281%2Be%5E-%28.1x%29%29%29%29>. This would suggest that as time goes to infinity, people's feelings about TV ownership approach neutral; they do not oscillate like a sine function. This makes sense, because for the negative second derivative to be a sine function, TV ownership would have to be too, yet TV ownership is unlikely to be periodic. 173.245.55.229 16:28, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I have two issues with this explanation: the first is that it's too long to comfortably read, and I don't think the comic content merits such a long explanation. The other is that it reads too complexly. The point of this wiki is to make xkcd accessible for everyone, but it talks about things like sine waves, oscillation and convergence, which not all readers are going to grok. --Mynotoar (talk) 17:24, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

If we're keeping the explanation surrounding the area of "People therefore discussed television programs frequently, as a major social activity.", it maybe ought to be pointed out that major social discussions about TV programmes dropped off as a result of the increase in the number of TV channels and thus (except for particularly notable ratings-grabbers) the question of "Did you see what was on TV last night?" increasingly needed further qualifying. (However, I'm not sure this is revelevant.) Oh, and I've a feeling I should be feeling smug, right now. Absolutely gorge myself on radio, though. 141.101.99.229 21:18, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

I do not see any evidence that this comic's title text refers in any way to a sine curve. If you consider a logistic function modeling TV ownership over time (which would look the similar to a logistic population growth model), you can take the function's second derivative, which vaguely resembles a sine curve, with the important difference that to the sides of the curve, the line becomes more level rather than repeating the curve. I would say the determining factors are the fact that the beginning of the graph is flat (as opposed to the curve just going to zero or showing the end of the previous curve), and the fact that he mentions the "negative second derivative of TV ownership rate," and the TV ownership rate would follow a model similar to a logistic population model, which is not a sine curve, though the second derivative of such a graph would, in fact, represent a sine curve. --Zweisteine 21:36, 4 December 2013 (UTC)

Not sure if I'm coming in at the end of an edit war and pouring fuel on the argument, but I think the whole smugness/TV ownership / Programming comments are well made before the last paragraph. I'm confident that Randell's title text is a superficial comment about the shape of the graph. I've edited the last paragraph so there's no mention of sine waves, oscillation, convergence, or interpretation of where the graph starts or where it's going (that seems subjective to me). Just a link to what a "negative second derivative" is, and a statement that the comic resembles that chart. XQx (talk) 01:02, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

Except that graph does closely represent the second derivative graphs I've seen for graphs that start slow, rise suddenly, then level out again, like a population chart, or a chart showing TV ownership over time. Zweisteine (talk) 01:18, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

I think that, theoretically, something closer to an arctangent fits the number of televisions over time graph better than a logarithmic curve- at least if we consider some of the thousands of years during which nobody owned televisions. Linked below is a plot of arctan(x-2) + 1.3 and its negative second derivative (scaled to fit better in WolframAlpha's output window), the latter of which looks as much like the smugness graph in the comic as anything I've seen so far. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+atan%28x-2%29+%2B+1.3%2C+6%28x-2%29%2F%28x^2-4+x%2B5%29^2+for+x+%3D+0..4 --173.245.56.24 03:45, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

While the previous explanation of the title text involving the sine function was bogus (it's the second derivative of TV ownership rate, not the second derivative of smugness), the stuff about logistic (or arctangent or other sigmoid) functions is correct (if you believe that TV ownership should follow a sigmoid curve). I think that this can be explained, so I've put that in; hopefully, one can read it without the parentheses to get something understandable to lay folk, and then the parentheses show where Randall's mathematical jargon comes in. —TobyBartels (talk) 04:59, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

The "this is incomplete because it needs further information" is not much of an explanation of what needs to be completed. It looks like the tag was added when the explanation was really, really poor and it't now obsolete. I would update it if I could figure out something that is still missing, but at this moment it looks like removing it altogether could be a better option. 173.245.53.117 09:54, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

Agreed. Removed. —TobyBartels (talk) 17:28, 5 December 2013 (UTC)

I feel quite smug, not having to pay £145.50 a year to watch people wanting to be famous, or wanting to remind people that they used to be famous, screaming for attention on "Strictly Got Talent Factor On Ice Brother" 141.101.99.218 16:06, 5 December 2013 (UTC)