Difference between revisions of "Talk:1885: Ensemble Model"

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(update of dog speed comment)
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I would say that one  the idea of randall is related to point the change climate denier invalid reasoning that despite all scenario of global warning show increase of temperature, the fact that none of each is very likely to be wrong then all are wrong. (The fallacy is  in the last then:  the reunion of little probability can lead to high confidence or a the reunion of sum of various probable things can lead to absolutely certain ) [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 02:35, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
 
I would say that one  the idea of randall is related to point the change climate denier invalid reasoning that despite all scenario of global warning show increase of temperature, the fact that none of each is very likely to be wrong then all are wrong. (The fallacy is  in the last then:  the reunion of little probability can lead to high confidence or a the reunion of sum of various probable things can lead to absolutely certain ) [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 02:35, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
  
I have to disagree with ''"there is no reason to have the locomotion speed of dogs as a parameter"''. Dogs are known to chase cats, cats kill a large number of birds, birds eat insects including butterflies. If dogs would run slightly faster there could be a significant variation in the amplitude of the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect Butterfly effect]. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.147|141.101.69.147]] 12:13, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
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I have to disagree with the original explanation (now fixed) that ''"there is no reason to have the locomotion speed of dogs as a parameter"''. Dogs are known to chase cats, cats kill a large number of birds, birds eat insects including butterflies. If dogs would run slightly faster there could be a significant variation in the amplitude of the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect Butterfly effect]. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.69.147|141.101.69.147]] 12:13, 5 September 2017 (UTC)
 
:Besides, the running speed of dogs would presumably impact how often, and where, one would experience raining cats and dogs.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:30, 6 September 2017 (UTC)
 
:Besides, the running speed of dogs would presumably impact how often, and where, one would experience raining cats and dogs.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:30, 6 September 2017 (UTC)
 
"[one extra cloud in the Bahamas] is most likely too specific and subtle a difference to be useful to the model." - Doesn't that depend on the size and disposition of said cloud?  I'd say the problem here is vagueness, rather than insignificance.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:35, 6 September 2017 (UTC)
 
"[one extra cloud in the Bahamas] is most likely too specific and subtle a difference to be useful to the model." - Doesn't that depend on the size and disposition of said cloud?  I'd say the problem here is vagueness, rather than insignificance.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.32|162.158.155.32]] 15:35, 6 September 2017 (UTC)

Revision as of 12:36, 7 September 2017


Where's the guy who knows how to make tables? A table would be good for this article, so we could explain each joke scenario. 172.68.26.5 15:41, 4 September 2017 (UTC)

I don't like tables when the text in the data cells is more than only a few words. That's bad layout. I have entered all the text from the list into separate headers for the appropriate floating text layout.--Dgbrt (talk) 18:39, 4 September 2017 (UTC)

Might be worth mentioning the context for this comic; viz. the approach of hurricane Irma, with a wide range of predictions as to where it might end up (and which areas it would hit), making weather modeling (and hurricane modeling in particular) – and the uncertainties involved – topical. It's clear to us now, but won't be clear to readers a few years from now. Pelosujamo (talk) 01:37, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

Wait - you mean it's not related to Harvey? (In other words, I'm not part of the "us" you speak about.) -- Hkmaly (talk) 02:17, 5 September 2017 (UTC)global warming https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1885:_Ensemble_Model
I'm pretty sure this was inspired by Irma, not Harvey, because it's about uncertainty in weather modeling; which has received more attention with Irma than it did with Harvey. By the time America started paying real attention to Harvey the National Hurricane Center already had a very good (and accurate) idea about its future path. By contrast, the uncertainties in the Irma models made CNN's front page long before Irma was anywhere near populated areas. Also, it would be a bit late for Randall to do a Harvey comic; Harvey was last week's news. (Of course, Harvey did make hurricanes cool again.) Pelosujamo (talk) 13:24, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

I would say that one the idea of randall is related to point the change climate denier invalid reasoning that despite all scenario of global warning show increase of temperature, the fact that none of each is very likely to be wrong then all are wrong. (The fallacy is in the last then: the reunion of little probability can lead to high confidence or a the reunion of sum of various probable things can lead to absolutely certain ) Xavier Combelle (talk) 02:35, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

I have to disagree with the original explanation (now fixed) that "there is no reason to have the locomotion speed of dogs as a parameter". Dogs are known to chase cats, cats kill a large number of birds, birds eat insects including butterflies. If dogs would run slightly faster there could be a significant variation in the amplitude of the Butterfly effect. --141.101.69.147 12:13, 5 September 2017 (UTC)

Besides, the running speed of dogs would presumably impact how often, and where, one would experience raining cats and dogs.162.158.155.32 15:30, 6 September 2017 (UTC)

"[one extra cloud in the Bahamas] is most likely too specific and subtle a difference to be useful to the model." - Doesn't that depend on the size and disposition of said cloud? I'd say the problem here is vagueness, rather than insignificance.162.158.155.32 15:35, 6 September 2017 (UTC)


The upper graph looks like one plotting global temperatures with time using different scenarios, like this one: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-5.html". I do not think this is an appropriate example of an ensemble model. The several trajectories for global temperature are for different policy decisions. In an ensemble model various trajectories reflect uncertainty about are a result of uncertainty about initial conditions or the physical rules that control the evolution of the system. TLDR: A map is not an ensemble model. The uncertainty (shaded area) for each track may or may not be the result of an ensemble, but if it is an ensemble for one of the scenarios would be a better example. Also ensembles are typically used for non-linear, chaotic systems and this should probably be somewhere in the explanation. 162.158.62.159 17:06, 6 September 2017 (UTC)