Difference between revisions of "Talk:2046: Trum-"

Explain xkcd: It's 'cause you're dumb.
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This is not that weird.  If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206%
 
This is not that weird.  If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206%
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:Yes, but we already "fulfilled our obligation" after the sixth president :) [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 15:59, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
  
 
An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening.  So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%.
 
An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening.  So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%.
 
:I love that we are now having a mathematical discussion about how weird things are in the presidency. [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 15:58, 14 September 2018 (UTC)
 
:I love that we are now having a mathematical discussion about how weird things are in the presidency. [[User:Zachweix|Zachweix]] ([[User talk:Zachweix|talk]]) 15:58, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

Revision as of 15:59, 14 September 2018


This is not that weird. If names were random then it would be a 1 in 26^4 = 456976 chance of a particular president matching another for the first 4, but this is a "Birthday Problem" with 44 presidents, so the probability of any two presidents sharing the first 4 characters is 1-(456976!/(456976^44 (456976 - 44)!)), which wolfram alpha is giving as 0.206%

Yes, but we already "fulfilled our obligation" after the sixth president :) Zachweix (talk) 15:59, 14 September 2018 (UTC)

An approximation to the correct probability would be to do 44^2/(2 x 26^4) which would give about 0.2% chance of this happening. So fairly weird, but as the comic suggests, many things about this presidency are weirder than 0.2%.

I love that we are now having a mathematical discussion about how weird things are in the presidency. Zachweix (talk) 15:58, 14 September 2018 (UTC)