# Difference between revisions of "Talk:2370: Prediction"

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Is that a JoJo's reference?!1!! [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.213|172.68.142.213]] 23:18, 9 October 2020 (UTC) | Is that a JoJo's reference?!1!! [[Special:Contributions/172.68.142.213|172.68.142.213]] 23:18, 9 October 2020 (UTC) | ||

+ | : Dunno who or what JoJo is (unless Jojo Siwa? But how would that be relevant?), but this is at least 70% likely to be a reference to the current election season in the USA and 538's (and others') predictions of Donald Trump's chance of winning the election in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, if I recall correctly, Trump had about a 30% chance to win (and thus Clinton had a 70% chance to win), and when 538's model launched earlier this year, the chances were basically the same (28-71 (with a 1% of an electoral college split because the USA's election system is phenomenally stupid)). Since then, Trump's chances of winning legitimately (538 does not attempt to model the chances and effects of election interference or votes not being counted) have slipped to about a 15% chance of winning which sounds bad, but will still happen in approximately 1 of every 7 tries, or about the number of Mondays in a week. Not great, but not impossible, either....)[[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.194|162.158.75.194]] 23:36, 9 October 2020 (UTC) |

## Revision as of 23:36, 9 October 2020

Is that a JoJo's reference?!1!! 172.68.142.213 23:18, 9 October 2020 (UTC)

- Dunno who or what JoJo is (unless Jojo Siwa? But how would that be relevant?), but this is at least 70% likely to be a reference to the current election season in the USA and 538's (and others') predictions of Donald Trump's chance of winning the election in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, if I recall correctly, Trump had about a 30% chance to win (and thus Clinton had a 70% chance to win), and when 538's model launched earlier this year, the chances were basically the same (28-71 (with a 1% of an electoral college split because the USA's election system is phenomenally stupid)). Since then, Trump's chances of winning legitimately (538 does not attempt to model the chances and effects of election interference or votes not being counted) have slipped to about a 15% chance of winning which sounds bad, but will still happen in approximately 1 of every 7 tries, or about the number of Mondays in a week. Not great, but not impossible, either....)162.158.75.194 23:36, 9 October 2020 (UTC)