Difference between revisions of "Talk:2599: Spacecraft Debris Odds Ratio"

Explain xkcd: It's 'cause you're dumb.
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:Most likely there is an unstated chance of death by not going outside... presumably ~10% but there's no way to know the breakdown (could be nearly all cardio, could be nearly all ursine if they live in a cave next bears) [[Special:Contributions/172.69.70.127|172.69.70.127]] 23:02, 28 March 2022 (UTC)
 
:Most likely there is an unstated chance of death by not going outside... presumably ~10% but there's no way to know the breakdown (could be nearly all cardio, could be nearly all ursine if they live in a cave next bears) [[Special:Contributions/172.69.70.127|172.69.70.127]] 23:02, 28 March 2022 (UTC)
 
::300% increase is multiplying by (1+3), 30% decrease is multiplying by (1-0.3) , %increases are multiplicative so the increase is by a factor of 4*0.7=2.8, which is 280% of the original value (or a 180% increase).  
 
::300% increase is multiplying by (1+3), 30% decrease is multiplying by (1-0.3) , %increases are multiplicative so the increase is by a factor of 4*0.7=2.8, which is 280% of the original value (or a 180% increase).  
 +
:::Yeah, barring a total mistake, that must be where the number came from, but it seems odd by the inconsistent way it is expressed, as it assumes the 300% increase for the bear attack is added to the initial value for a final amount of 400%, along with a similar treatment for the 30% decrease, but the 280% is simply the final value skipping past that step to the conclusion afterwards that is not even shown for the previous numbers.  But with the improper grammar, if it's not an actual typo, it may be trying to show the speaker acting dumb or irrational, as it doesn't make sense to end with "increased" instead of "increase" without changing part of the words before that number.  Someone thinking that poorly though likely wouldn't be able to multiply things properly to produce that 280% number though.--[[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.153|172.70.130.153]] 01:13, 29 March 2022 (UTC)
  
 
"That's a 280% increased" has a typo/grammaro. The last word should be "increase". [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 23:04, 28 March 2022 (UTC)
 
"That's a 280% increased" has a typo/grammaro. The last word should be "increase". [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 23:04, 28 March 2022 (UTC)

Revision as of 01:13, 29 March 2022

correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe 300 - 30 is 270, not 280? 172.68.50.85 22:50, 28 March 2022 (UTC)

something something percentage points maybe? idk 172.70.134.91 22:56, 28 March 2022 (UTC)Bumpf
Most likely there is an unstated chance of death by not going outside... presumably ~10% but there's no way to know the breakdown (could be nearly all cardio, could be nearly all ursine if they live in a cave next bears) 172.69.70.127 23:02, 28 March 2022 (UTC)
300% increase is multiplying by (1+3), 30% decrease is multiplying by (1-0.3) , %increases are multiplicative so the increase is by a factor of 4*0.7=2.8, which is 280% of the original value (or a 180% increase).
Yeah, barring a total mistake, that must be where the number came from, but it seems odd by the inconsistent way it is expressed, as it assumes the 300% increase for the bear attack is added to the initial value for a final amount of 400%, along with a similar treatment for the 30% decrease, but the 280% is simply the final value skipping past that step to the conclusion afterwards that is not even shown for the previous numbers. But with the improper grammar, if it's not an actual typo, it may be trying to show the speaker acting dumb or irrational, as it doesn't make sense to end with "increased" instead of "increase" without changing part of the words before that number. Someone thinking that poorly though likely wouldn't be able to multiply things properly to produce that 280% number though.--172.70.130.153 01:13, 29 March 2022 (UTC)

"That's a 280% increased" has a typo/grammaro. The last word should be "increase". Barmar (talk) 23:04, 28 March 2022 (UTC)

I think the actual typo is the "a" so should be "That's 280% increased"

Also what's an odds ratio?? ~~Bumpf

I assume something like "million to one". But the units of the horizontal axis clearly don't correspond to that. I don't know what those units are, they're not a percentage, either. Barmar (talk) 00:40, 29 March 2022 (UTC)
if you say "this is 4 times as likely" then "4" is the "odds ratio", this is the type of number appearing on the horizontal axis

Did something happen to the size of the image after the initial posting? Barmar (talk) 00:40, 29 March 2022 (UTC)

What's with the asterisks on the right side? Jordan Brown (talk) 00:50, 29 March 2022 (UTC)

There should probably be an explanation of what "Monte Carlo Simulation" means, as many people who would actually want an explanation of this strip would likely be unfamiliar with that term.--172.70.131.122 01:02, 29 March 2022 (UTC)