Editing 2169: Predictive Models

The title text shows the revolutionaries using the same technique. By typing in "We will arrest the revolution members" they are hoping that the algorithm will suggest the time and date of their planned arrest, since no one other than the authorities would be typing in that phrase. Pressing the key [tab] to autocomplete that text produces "WE WILL ARREST THE REVOLUTION MEMBERS [AT THE JULY 28TH MEETING]", and the revolutionaries then say "Cancel the meeting! Our cover is blown." The revolutionaries have apparently made the serious mistake of holding secret meetings on regular, predictable dates (such as the 28th day of each month, the last date guaranteed to exist in any month of the Gregorian Calendar), and the authorities have successfully figured this out, either through the predictive-text attack or by other means.

Both examples assume that the revolutionaries and the authorities would be talking about very secret information in the clear on a network accessible to their adversaries. In the real world, people engaged in sensitive activities would communicate via code, encryption, or both, or would do so through what they believe to be secure channels. There is still the danger of secret information leaking via non-secret channels, however. {{w|Side-channel attack|Side-channel attacks}} use information gained from the implementation of a system to deduce supposedly protected information. A famous example occurred in World War II.  The Germans kept tank production figures a secret, but they gave items like engine blocks sequential serial numbers. The Allies wanted to know exact tank production figures, so they solved the {{w|German tank problem}} by using statistical methods to analyze the distribution of these numbers on captured vehicles. They were able to predict tank production figures extremely accurately, to the point they predicted 270 tanks in a month when 276 were actually built. Thus, the secret information on tank production leaked.

Some systems require frequent password change, in an effort to limit danger from a password being discovered. However, people respond by choosing passwords in patterns, so it is easy to predict what subsequent passwords will be, given old ones, thus defeating the purpose of requiring frequent changes.[https://www.troyhunt.com/passwords-evolved-authentication-guidance-for-the-modern-era/ Passwords Evolved: Authentication Guidance for the Modern Era]

Although the comic title is "Predictive Models", the term {{w|Predictive modelling}} usually refers to computer programs that try to predict outcomes from data aggregation, such as reviewing health records to identify people most at risk from certain diseases based on weight, prior injuries, etc., before testing directly for the diseases themselves. This is similar to but not precisely like the example in the comic, since predictive text is using direct input to predict further input, while predictive modelling is using related input (such as make and model of a car along with driver acceleration patterns) to predict a different output (such as likelihood of a crash). Both predictive text and predictive modelling could leak information as the comic suggests, however. Predictive text and the possibility to leak unintended information has been parodied on xkcd before in [[1068: Swiftkey]].