Difference between revisions of "384: The Drake Equation"

Explain xkcd: It's 'cause you're dumb.
Jump to: navigation, search
Line 8: Line 8:
  
 
==Explanation==
 
==Explanation==
This comic is multi-layered, and seems to be Randall's take on the Fermi paradox.
+
This comic is multi-layered, and seems to be Randall's take on the {{w|Fermi paradox}}.
  
 
For starters, the {{w|Drake equation}} is a model for estimating the number of communicating life forms in our galaxy.
 
For starters, the {{w|Drake equation}} is a model for estimating the number of communicating life forms in our galaxy.

Revision as of 07:46, 10 November 2013

The Drake Equation
But seriously, there's loads of intelligent life. It's just not screaming constantly in all directions on the handful of frequencies we search.
Title text: But seriously, there's loads of intelligent life. It's just not screaming constantly in all directions on the handful of frequencies we search.

Explanation

This comic is multi-layered, and seems to be Randall's take on the Fermi paradox.

For starters, the Drake equation is a model for estimating the number of communicating life forms in our galaxy.

Even in the unlikely event that there is life on other planets, most life forms will not establish civilizations. But if there are any communicating civilizations their messages would have to travel for hundreds, thousands, or hundreds of thousands of years to reach us and then our response would take an equivalent amount of time, leaving them waiting for potentially thousands of years for a response.

That's the reason why Randall also added the factor for the "Amount of bullshit you're willing to buy from Frank Drake". All the factors are difficult to measure or estimate, no number is determined by an sufficient accuracy, so the equation is a guideline for a thought experiment at best, and just "bullshit" at worst.

The title text is a joke on the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence project and the intelligence of the researchers. There is little, if anything, restricting any potential extra-terrestrial communication to the frequencies that SETI searches at any given moment. And with the thousands of years of separation and the probabilities involved any communication from an extraterrestrial source that doesn't know we're here would have to be a constant and powerful signal sent out from a source in all directions. Any intelligent civilization wouldn't waste all their time and effort on such a system just to say hi to other races when there is an extremely slim possibility that either civilization would meet even if they do communicate.

In other words, the title text makes it clear Randall doesn't think Drake is a nutjob or anything, just that Randall has a more conservative expectation about ever discovering extraterrestrial life.

Transcript

The Drake Equation:
N = R * fp ne fl fi fc L Bs
N: Number of communicating civilizations in our galaxy
ne: Number of life-supporting planets per solar system
fi: Probability that life on a planet becomes intelligent
Bs: Amount of bullshit you're willing to buy from Frank Drake


comment.png add a comment! ⋅ comment.png add a topic (use sparingly)! ⋅ Icons-mini-action refresh blue.gif refresh comments!

Discussion

Looks like someone mixed up Frank Drake and Francis Drake --Btx40 (talk) 14:32, 19 February 2013 (UTC)

Bs looks more like B6 162.158.79.185 17:03, 13 March 2019 (UTC)

The title text shows a lack of imagination about how aliens could communicate. It need not be that they're using narrow direction and different bands. First, they could be using radio in a way that wouldn't be detected, much as how no WWII radio expert would recognize modern, digital, encoded cell tower transmissions. Second, there may be other means of communicating over distance, like entangled particles. —Kazvorpal (talk) 07:50, 10 November 2019 (UTC)

Alternate solution factor: N= [stuff already mentioned]^["probability" that there is not a God who, if He exists, perhaps made this universe so that there would be no process where beings like us could come from the dust of a planet by natural means.] Yeah, it does depend on one's bias and worldview. 172.70.130.91 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)